23 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday.
25 F. average high on December 21.
21 F. high on December 21, 2012.
6" snow on the ground.
0 F. high on December 21, 2000, after waking up to -14 F. in the Twin Cities.
4-6"+ additional snow by Christmas Day.
Odds of flipping 345 "heads" in a row? 1 in 1.395 (to the 104th power).
A Global Perspective
In an age of hackers, scams and endless marketing spin it's good to be skeptical. 2013 is running about 1F colder than average in the Twin Cities, and this recent cold spell? Cathy Wurzer posed the question on TPT's "Almanac" Friday "How does this square with global warming Paul?"
Research shows our collective concern about climate change is influenced by the weather. In winter interest wanes. "How can the atmosphere possibly be warming up?" Perception becomes reality.
It's the equivalent of mistaking CNN Headline News for The History Channel. We can't look out our windows and make global assumptions.
November was the warmest ever recorded, worldwide. 345 months/row of temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The odds of flipping 345 heads in a row? 1 in 1.395 (followed by 104 zeros). Even the Lotto has (much) better odds. Healthy skepticism is an effective coping mechanism these days, but I still respond to logic, reason...and math.
The next surge of chilling air squeezes out a couple inches of snow today; another potentially plowable snow on Christmas Eve. Latest model data suggests another 4-6" or more of snow between today and Christmas Day. Subzero fun Tuesday & Friday morning gives way to a brief thaw by Saturday.
2014 will start out Nanook but NOAA's CFS climate model still suggests that January could wind up being a little milder than December. Place your bets.
TODAY: Light snow, 2-4" by tonight. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 18
SUNDAY NIGHT: Light snow tapers to flurries late, turning much colder. Low: -5
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, feels like -20F. High: 3
CHRISTMAS EVE: Bitter start, 2-3 more inches late. Wake-up: -9. High: 12
CHRISTMAS DAY: A very white Christmas. Cloudy. Wake-up: 11. High: 23
THURSDAY: Some sun, tumbling temperatures again. Wake-up: 13. High: 15
FRIDAY: Numbing start. Fading sun. Wake-up: -5. High: 13
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, risk of a thaw. Wake-up: 10. High: 32
Photo credit above: "A coal fired plant." Photograph: John Giles/AP.
Billion Dollar Climate Denial Network Exposed. More details from Wired UK.
Graphic credit above: "A map showing winter temperature trends in the U.S. from 1970-2012."
Graphic credit above: Arctic ice volume through 2013 from the Polar Science Center
Photo credit above: Reuters. "The sun is seen behind smoke billowing from a chimney of a heating plant in Taiyuan, Shanxi province December 9, 2013."
Photo credit: Shutterstock.