60 F. average high on April 19.
38 F. high on April 19, 2013.
70 F. high possible later today; isolated shower (better chance of rain south of MSP).
* this past winter was the toughest since 1983-84 for the Twin Cities. Details on the Winter Misery Index below.
Thawing Easter Eggs
I just hope we can salvage a couple of quiet weeks between the slush and the tornadoes. Some faint approximation of this long-ridiculed theory called "spring".
We have every reason to gripe. D.J. Kayser, a meteorologist & producer at WeatherNation, tallied up a total of 37 days this past winter where the wind chill went below -20F at some point during the day. That's 3 times more than average.
A growing probability of El Nino could mean a slightly wetter & cooler summer; if it lingers into next winter it would probably trigger a mild bias. If it's an (EP) Eastern Pacific El Nino event it could spike temperatures, worldwide. Too early to tell.
A straggling front keeps clouds and a few spotty showers around the area today. Most of the time should be dry - and if the sun breaks out for a few hours we may hit 70F, with less wind than Saturday.
Skies clear Monday behind a weak cool front - a blue-sky Tuesday giving way to heavy showers & T-storms Wednesday/Thursday. Long-range ECMWF guidance shows highs in the 40s next weekend; a cold rain Sunday may end as wet snow 1 week from Monday. I pray the models are wrong, but nothing surprises me anymore.
For now enjoy a lukewarm Easter! You've earned it.
* image credit here.
Credit above: "A new ScienceCast video explores unexpected "teleconnections" in Earth's atmosphere that link weather and climate across vast distances."
Photo credit above: "The dry bed of the Stevens Creek Reservoir is seen on Thursday, March 13, 2014, in Cupertino, Calif." Image: Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press.
Photo credit above: "Picnic beside the cherry blossom in a Shinjuku park." Photo by Jérémie Souteyrat.
EASTER SUNDAY: Sunny intervals, lukewarm. Stray shower possible, especially southern MN. Winds: E 5. High: near 70
SUNDAY NIGHT: A few showers, mainly south/east of MSP. Low: 51
MONDAY: Damp start, then clearing skies, still pleasantly mild. High: 67
TUESDAY: Blue sky, cool & pleasant. Wake-up: 38. High: 58
WEDNESDAY: Showers likely, possible thunder. Wake-up: 40. High: 57
THURSDAY: Periods of heavy rain likely. Wake-up: 45. High: 55
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, drying out. Wake-up: 43. High: 54
SATURDAY: Some sun, cooler than average. Wake-up: 38. High: 52
Arctic Oil: Is it Madness to Celebrate a New Source of Fossil Fuels? Here's a clip from The Guardian: "...In the last 30 years we've lost three-quarters of Arctic sea ice volume in summer months. And as oil companies rush in to exploit the shrinking ice, they are also risking environmental disasters in the fragile Arctic environment. So the question isn't how to get off Kremlin controlled energy; it is how to tackle the political dominance of the fossil fuel industry. This decision is more relevant, more crucial, than ever before in our history. Fossil fuels got us into this mess, they won't get us out of it..." (Image: NOAA).
Map credit above: "Western U.S. trends for number of large fires in each ecoregion per year." Philip E. Dennison, Simon C. Brewer, James D. Arnold, Max A. Moritz. Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984-2011. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014.
Photo credit above: "University administrators argue that divesting won't make a difference, that it's not our job to "punish" bad actors. History does not support these claims." Photograph: Murdo Macleod.