83 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday.
88 F. record high on September 27 (1987).
67 F. average high on September 27.
86 F. high on September 27, 2013.
1983: Late summer with 91 degrees at Montevideo and 90 degrees at Elbow Lake.
1895: "Furious wind" at Pleasant Mound in Blue Earth County blew down grain stacks and corn shocks.
Window Seat
Grown-ups
have an innate ability to make a hot mess of the world. What transforms
you into a wide-eyed, wonder-filled kid again? Fishing with dad?
Wandering the State Fair? Christmas morning?
For me one antidote
to stress is staring out the window at 39,000 feet, munching on peanuts,
problems and stresses shrinking into a storybook landscape below. I'm
most at peace when I'm IN the weather, not tracking it from below. Being
a pilot might have been a smart career choice - funny how my youngest
son inherited that itch.
FAA data confirms that summer T-storms
are more disruptive than fog or winter snow & ice, especially at
small airports in the south. If you're a pilot (or farmer/gardener) a
healthy respect for the weather isn't optional. Your job depends on it.
Today:
the last day of atmospheric magic - highs near 80F as showers spread
into far northern Minnesota. Canadian air dribbles into town Monday; the
best chance of rain comes late Wednesday into Thursday. It'll feel like
October by late week - a slight risk of frost next weekend; close to
average for the immediate MSP metro area.
In an increasingly weather-on-steroids world I'd love to track some "average weather".
Sunday Weather Map.
A bloated (August-like) bubble of high pressure centered over the
Plains hangs on one more day with enough subsidence aloft for highs near
80F once again; the last day of our summerlike fling. Cooler air pushes
south tonight; Monday should be 15-20F cooler with highs stuck in the
60s. The chance of rain increases by midweek. 18z Sunday weather map
prediction: NCAR.
Summerlike Kink in the Jet Stream.
Here are the winds at 500mb, about 18,000 feet aloft, valid yesterday
morning, showing a deep low pressure system pushing into California,
pushing a ridge with unnatural warmth into the Upper Midwest,
responsible for temperatures 15-20F above average. A pattern that favors
troughs and rain for the west coast would tend to favor a milder
pattern for Minnesota into autumn and winter. We'll see. If the ridge
becomes stalled over the Pacific Coast the potential for deep intrusions
of bitter air east of the Rockies increases. Map: GrADS: COLA/IGES.
Rocky Mountain Soaking.
A deep trough of low pressure, a cold wrinkle of air aloft, sparks
soaking rains from central Arizona north to Montana over the next 60
hours. Heavy T-storms sprout from the Gulf Coast to Florida; dry and
pleasantly warm weather lingers from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.
4 KM NAM accumulated precipitation loop: NOAA and HAMweather.
Minor Reality Check.
One more day of summer bliss, followed by a cooling trend this week; a
midweek ripple of low pressure capable of more significant rain late
Tuesday into Thursday; then clearing next weekend. European model runs
keep flip-flopping between 50s and 60s next weekend - the latest run
trending a bit milder for next weekend, especially Sunday. The potential
for a metro-wide frost Sunday morning has diminished slightly. Source:
Weatherspark.
Super-Sized Autumn?
I wouldn't bet the farm on (any) long range forecast, but GFS guidance
shows consistent 60s, even a few 70s into the second week of October. An
omen of a milder winter to come? I wouldn't read too much into a 1-2
week trend, but I still believe the odds of two (30-year) winters, back
to back, are small. We'll see snow and cold but everything I'm looking
at suggests a slightly more tolerable winter to come.
Ask Paul. Weather-related questions, comments and rants:
"
Love your column. Any early predictions for weather for Twin Cities Marathon Oct 5th? ? ? Possible stocking caps and gloves the whole 26.2 miles? Wind on our back? (that would be great)."
- Sharon Hanson
Thanks
Sharon - I appreciate your loyalty very much. Right now the early word
for next Sunday morning, October 5 is bright sun, a light breeze and
temperatures rising from the upper 30s at 7 AM to 50s by late morning,
so not nearly as warm and sticky as recent days. Not sure about the wind
at your back but I'll kick the Doppler and try to make it happen. Good
luck.
September: Big Moisture Variations.
It's been a strange month for rainfall, trending drier than average for
much of Minnesota, but much wetter over parts of northern and western
Minnesota. Here's an excerpt from this week's edition of
WeatherTalk, courtesy of Dr. Mark Seeley: "
Just
like the August rainfall pattern, September has been mostly drier than
normal across the state, but intense thunderstorms have brought well
above normal rainfall to some areas of the state. In the northern
counties Hawley (3.08"), Lake Winnibigoshish (3.28"), Thorhult (3.42"),
and Tofte (4.23") have all reported well above normal rainfall for the
month. In western counties a number of observers have reported over 4
inches for the month including Pelican Rapids, New York Mills, and
Slayton. Lamberton has reported their 2nd wettest month of the year with
5.70 inches..."
A Fried Chicken iPhone Case?
Why not, although I fear I'd be nibbling away at my protective case as
the munchies set in. Thank KFC for this advancement in technology;
details from
cnet.com: "
Some
of the most unusual and amusing digital accessories in the world are
coming from the Japanese arm of Kentucky Fried Chicken. The fast-food
chain already unveiled a fried-chicken keyboard, computer mouse and USB drive
as part of a Twitter promotion and giveaway. KFC Japan looked upon its
mighty works and said, "Yes, this is good, but we can do better." And
then it introduced a fried-chicken iPhone case...."
TODAY: Early patches of fog, then warm sunshine, August-like. Winds: S 10. High: 81
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase, showers possible, mainly north of MSP. Low: 59
MONDAY: More clouds, cooling down. High: 65
TUESDAY: Intervals of sun, breezy. Wake-up: 51. High: 68
WEDNESDAY: Rain develops late, thunder rumbles. Wake-up: 54. High: near 70
THURSDAY: Soggy. Showers linger. Wake-up: 57. High: 69
FRIDAY: Cold wind, showers linger. Wake-up: 51. High: 58
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, feels like October. Wake-up: 43. High: 57
Climate Stories...
The Natural Gas Boom Could Accelerate Climate Change.
That is, if methane leakage around wells isn't adequately addressed in a
rush for profits. Here's a snippet that made me do a double-take from
FiveThirtyEightScience: "...
Policymakers
have hailed this revolution as beneficial in the fight against climate
change, but natural gas does have a dark side: It is composed primarily
of methane, which has a much stronger climate-warming effect than carbon
dioxide. Unburned methane that leaks into the air from anywhere in our
natural gas infrastructure has a potent climate-warming effect, and
global methane levels have been steadily increasing since 2007.
The only way to know whether switching to natural gas will worsen
climate warming, rather than lessen it, is to accurately assess the
scale of methane leakage..."
10 Fact Checks About Climate Change.
PolitiFact has the analysis - here's an excerpt: "...
U.S.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse delivers regular Senate speeches about the
dangers of climate change and authors commentary on the topic. In May,
he argued that addressing climate change makes economic sense, adding,
"There are already more American jobs in the solar industry than in coal
mining." PolitiFact Rhode Island found that the most recent data from
three objective sources support his claim. We rated his statement True."
Opinion: A $65 Trillion Global Warming Gamble in a $75 Trillion GDP World.
Marketwatch has the Op-Ed; here's a clip: "...
One
final observation on the world’s new love of free-market capitalism and
its blind obsession with economic growth at all costs: BusinessWeek
quoted David Owen from his “The Conundrum”: “As long as the West places
high and unquestioning value on economic growth and consumer
gratification — with China and the rest of the developing world right
behind — we will continue to burn the fossil fuels whose emissions trap
heat in the atmosphere.” Unable to stop. And eventually the addiction to
‘growth at all costs’ will itself destroy the planet’s collective
conscience ... because history keeps repeating... until there is nothing
left to repeat."
Why The Political Winds are Shifting on Climate Change.
The Globe and Mail has the article - here's a clip: "...
First,
climate change is imposing real costs on economies now. While the
competitiveness neurosis of imposing carbon costs on industry remains,
there is a stark realization that climate induced damages are impeding
economic growth and risking human health. This is as true for small
island states facing sea-level rise, for African countries experiencing
drought and in North America, where more frequent and intense storms are
wreaking havoc. Second, GHG mitigation costs are not what we thought,
while innovation is creating market opportunities..."
Inside the Koch Brother's Toxic Empire. Rolling Stone has an eye-opening story; here's an excerpt: "...
The
volume of Koch Industries' toxic output is staggering. According to the
University of Massachusetts Amherst's Political Economy Research
Institute, only three companies rank among the top 30 polluters of
America's air, water and climate: ExxonMobil, American Electric Power
and Koch Industries. Thanks in part to its 2005 purchase of paper-mill
giant Georgia-Pacific, Koch Industries dumps more pollutants into the
nation's waterways than General Electric and International Paper
combined..."
Illustration credit: Victor Juhasz.
Graphic: A Farmer's Guide to Global Warming - Go North. Bloomberg has the infographic and story; here's an excerpt: "
Land
in Canada, China, and Russia that cannot be farmed now may become
suitable for agriculture as warmer climes creep north over the next
90 years, according to a new study from Germany’s Ludwig Maximilian
University. The developing world is projected to lose the most, as
2.6 million square miles of usable land become too dry or hot to farm."
Map credit above: Bloomberg Businessweek.
Study Finds Global Sea Levels Rose Up To Five Meters Per Century At The End of The Last Five Ice Age Cycle. Yes, the climate has changed before, but never at the rate we're now witnessing. Here's an excerpt of a story at
phys.org: "
Land-ice
decay at the end of the last five ice ages caused global sea-levels to
rise at rates of up to 5.5 meters per century, according to a new study.
An international team of researchers developed a 500,000-year record of
sea-level variability, to provide the first account of how quickly
sea-level changed during the last five ice age cycles...."
Photo credit above: Tiago Fioreze/Wikipedia.
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