36 F. average high on November 24.
31 F. high on November 24, 2013.
1/2" snow fell yesterday at MSP International Airport
November 24, 1977: Record lows were set across central Minnesota with lows in the teens to single digits below zero. Montevideo had the coldest temperature of 18 degrees below zero along with Long Prairie at 16 degrees below zero.
November 24, 1820: Ft. Snelling is in the middle of a three-day blizzard that would dump nine inches of snow.
Think back two years. The mercury soared to 60F on Thanksgiving Day, 2012. That was the icing on the cake during Minnesota's warmest year on record. This year? 45 degrees colder, give or take. But at least we won't be shoveling out from under any untimely snowstorms. Not this year.
Data since 1872 shows the odds of a subzero low Thanksgiving morning are slightly higher than reaching 50F or above. There have been only 9 subzero lows in the last 142 years; about 1 in 3 Thanksgivings have at least an inch of snow on the ground.
Sunday's 51-degree instant thaw melted away most of the snow in the Twin Cities and I don't see much new accumulation into Sunday. Wednesday's clipper may coat us with an inch or so; another snowy coating possible Friday morning as milder air pushes north.
Traveling out east for Turkey Day? As much as 4-8 inches of slushy snow may fall Wednesday into early Thursday from Philadelphia to metro New York & Boston. Great timing for the busiest travel day of 2014. No controversy close to home - a thaw Saturday, maybe 40s next Tuesday?
I expect more of a Pacific influence this winter as El Nino sets in, with lower odds of a stalled (frigid) polar block.
* There's a good chance this will be the coldest Thanksgiving for the Twin Cities since 1989, when the high was 18F, after waking up to 2F, with 5" of snow on the ground. Data: Minnesota Climate Office.
Photo credit: 1955 Turkey Race courtesy of the Minnesota Historical Society.
Distribution of Thanksgiving Day Highs Since 1882. Media Logic meteorologist D.J. Kayser put together a graphic putting Turkey Day highs into perspective. It looks like this will be the 20th Thanksgiving since 1882 with a high in the teens. For more good historical information on Thanksgiving Day climatology in the Twin Cities click over to his blog here.
Thanksgiving Lows In The Twin Cities. There have been only 9 Thanksgivings with subzero wake-up temperatures since 1882; statistically we're much more likely to wake up to 20s at KMSP.
Photo credit above: "Mark Petrik and Dennis Smith dig out their south Buffalo driveway on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2014, in Buffalo, N.Y. Western New York continues to dig out from the heavy snow dropped by this week by lake-effect snowstorms." (AP Photo/Mike Groll).
* The web site capable of ruining an otherwise mediocre Tuesday is here.
TODAY: Partly sunny, less wind. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 27
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase, light snow possible by morning. Low: 22
WEDNESDAY: Coating to 2 inches of light snow possible (best chance south/west of MSP). High: 29
THANKSGIVING: Chilled sunshine. Turkey hangover. Wake-up: 7. High: 17
FRIDAY: Snowy coating early, not as harsh. Wake-up: 15. High: near 30
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a thaw. Wake-up: 27. High: 35
SUNDAY: Patchy clouds, turning breezy and cooler. Good travel. Wake-up: 19. High: 23
MONDAY: Plenty of sun. Allergy-free! Wake-up: 9. High: 20
Image credit above: "Some people love it; others dread it, but make no mistake: Thanksgiving is as American as apple pie and it’s one of the few chances we have to come together as families." (Norman Rockwell’s Freedom from Want, via Wikipedia.)
* the 320 page PDF "Turn Down The Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal" from The World Bank is here.