44 F. average high on November 11.
39 F. high on November 11, 2013.
.8" snow fell yesterday at MSP International.
3.4" snow from the recent storm at the airport.
3" snow on the ground.
Uh oh. There's snow on the ground. Its cold out. Does this mean another pioneer winter? Our parents tracked cold fronts, now we have the polar vortex to babble about.
"Paul, this is the EXACT same pattern we had last winter and for the most part, spring and summer of 2014 also. Give me reasons, based in facts, why this winter WILL NOT be a repeat of last winter" wrote Bill Holton in Woodbury.
The reality: rapid warming of the Arctic seems to be impacting jet stream winds, making them more unstable, more prone to high-amplitude blocking patterns, where weather stalls for weeks at a time. Lighter steering winds aloft allow cold air brewing over Canada to push more south than east, with potentially more frequent invasions of the Lower 48.
What's different from last winter? El Nino is still forecast to kick in, which should reduce the odds of a bitter blocking pattern identical to last winter. Weather may rhyme, but it rarely repeats.
Today will be typical, for mid January. Slap on an extra layer or two - wind chills flirt with zero at the bus stop this morning. A couple inches of light snow may fall Saturday; a reinforcing shot of numbing air keeps highs in the upper teens Sunday & Monday. I still see a thaw just in time for Thanksgiving.
That's it for 70s though. If anyone asks 40F is the new definition of "warm front".
Temperature anomalies next Tuesday morning, November 18, obtained using Climate Reanalyzer (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA.
TODAY: Clouds and flurries. West 15+ Wind chill: 10F. High: 22
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Scrappy clouds, few flurries. Low: 12
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Still brisk. High: 24
FRIDAY: Plenty of sun. Welcome lack of bugs. Wake-up: 8. High: 27
SATURDAY: Light snow, few inches possible. Wake-up: 12. High: 28
SUNDAY: Windy, turning colder again. Wake-up: 16. High: 23
MONDAY: Clouds and flurries. Wind chill: 5. Wake-up: 9. High: 18
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, enjoying January. Wake-up: 5. High: 24
Breaking News: U.S. and China Reach Deal on Climate Change in Secret Talks. Here's a summary from The New York Times.
Graphic credit above: "The sun emits short, high-energy wavelengths: visible light and ultraviolet radiation. Earth absorbs this energy and emits it as long-wave, or infrared, radiation." EPA.