52 F. average high on April 5.
50 F. high on April 5, 2014.
April 5, 1999: Snow over the arrowhead. 11 inches falls at Two Harbors.
April 5, 1929: Tornado cuts a path from Lake Minnetonka through North Minneapolis and leaves six dead.
"There is no such thing as bad weather, only inappropriate clothing choices" goes the old Scandinavian proverb. I think we can all agree that a sun-soaked vacation or lukewarm, blue-sky Saturday qualifies as "good weather", but not always. Not when 92 percent of the state is in moderate drought. Not when we're tracking blowing dirt, low lake water levels and extreme fire danger.
"Paul, no editorials please. We don't want an opinion, just the facts please" critics charge. And everyone's a critic. But with concern growing about the impact of drought on Minnesota'a farming community the forecast models are overflowing with good news.
A mega-million dollar rain event is shaping up over the next week. ECMWF (European) model guidance prints out over 3 inches of rain by next Tuesday. Most farms, lawns & gardens should pick up at least 1-2 inches of rain over the next 7-8 days; the best chance of a soaking rain Friday, again Sunday. Waves of moisture ripple across Minnesota as a slow-moving storm tracks from Tulsa to Chicago. Finally.
An inch or two of slush may coat lawns from Nisswa to Sandstone tonight, but most of us enjoy a cold rain and 40s this week. Minnesota is about to turn neon-green.
Good weather indeed!
Trending Wetter. Much of Minnesota needs 2-5" of rain or more to pull out from moderate drought conditions. I can't promise that, but an inch of water over the next 7-8 days seems realistic for much of central and southern Minnesota. 7-Day rainfall guidance: NOAA.
Winter Weather Advisory. Far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities may be waking up to a couple inches of slush on lawns, fields and slow-moving robins. A Winter Weather Advisory is posted from Brainerd and Little Falls to Princeton, Hinckley and Rice Lake. Details from the local NWS office in Chanhassen:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY... * TIMING...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...UP TO 3 INCHES. * ICE ACCUMULATION...LITTLE TO NONE. * MAIN IMPACT...ROADS COULD BECOME SLIPPERY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
Slushy Lawns Up North. A few days ago we mentioned the possibility of snow (quite prematurely, I'm sorry to admit) and it still appears that some lawns and fields from Brainerd, Little Falls and Crosby eastward to Sandstone, Hinkley and Rhinelander may get slushed up with an inch or two. 12 KM NAM guidance courtesy of NOAA and HAMweather.
Memories of Early March. So much for 70s and 80s. Temperatures this week run a good 10F colder than average, but the chilly air sets the stage for an extended tug-of-warm overhead, with persistent overruning precipitation lingering into Saturday. Highs hold in the 40s (some 30s up north) with some slight recover by Sunday, when another round of heavier showers and T-storms may arrive later in the day. No complaints about the rain - we really need it. Graphic: Weatherspark.
Warming Up Mid-April. This week looks chilly, no question about that, but looking out 2 weeks GFS forecasts for 500 mb winds show a long-wave ridge of high pressure treating much of the central USA to warmer than average temperatures - unusually chilly weather hanging on for the Great Lakes, New England and much of the eastern seaboard. Source: GrADS:COLA/IGES.
* At least 37% of the USA is in moderate drought or worse as of March 31. Click here for an animated time line showing the intensification of drought since December.
TODAY: Cold rain. Slushy mix up north. Winds: NE 10-20. High: 42
MONDAY NIGHT: Rain and drizzle. Wet snow possible north of MSP. Low: 36
TUESDAY: Good and soggy. More rain likely. High: 42
WEDNESDAY: Still gray, but a drier day. Wake-up: 35. High: 47
THURSDAY: More rain, best chance southern MN. Wake-up: 38. High: 46
FRIDAY: Heavier, steadier rain expected. Wake-up: 37. High: 49
SATURDAY: Showers taper, clouds linger. Wake-up: 36. High: near 50
SUNDAY: Peeks of sun, late-day T-storms. Wake-up: 40. High: 58
* Photo above courtesy of Media Logic meteorologist Todd Nelson, who assures me rhubarb are coming up in St. Michael.
Photo credit above: "As California enters its fourth year of severe drought and the state’s snowpack is at record lows, little water runoff is reaching reservoirs and recharge ponds that capture water and that percolates through the soil to replenish underground aquifers." (Photo: AP).