"Wise men learn more from fools than fools from wise men" said Marcus Cato. To err is human. But predicting the future requires a whole new level of hubris.
In 1901 Wilbur Wright told his brother, Orville, that man wouldn't fly for at least 50 years. "Ever since, I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions" he said in 1908.
"Space travel is bunk" quipped Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal of Britain, in 1957, two weeks before the launch of Russia's Sputnik satellite. Oops. Today's weather blog has more head-shaking examples below.
For the record weather accuracy for a 24-hour forecast is about 88 percent, which hasn't improved much in 30 years, in spite of better models, Doppler and satellites. And it's human nature to remember the 12 percent of the time we blow it.
After a badly-needed Thursday dousing skies brighten this afternoon; a moderate case of spring fever this weekend with sunny spurts, balmy 60s and a few claps of thunder late Sunday. More T-storms the middle of next week signal the arrival of another cool front - jacket weather returns in a week. But with a high sun angle it just can't stay chilly for long now.
Trust me. I predict the future.
"A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make." -- Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies.
"Space travel is bunk." -- Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal of Britain, 1957, two weeks before the launch of Sputnik
"Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy." -- Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.
"I confess that in 1901, I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for fifty years . . . Ever since, I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions." -- Wilbur Wright, 1908
"The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon". -- Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon- Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873
"You would make a ship sail against the winds and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck...I have no time for such nonsense." -- Napoleon, commenting on Fulton's Steamship
"Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances." -- Dr. Lee De Forest, inventor of the Audion tube and a father of radio, 25 February 1967.
- Courtesy of Peter Kennedy at Daily Devotionals (which I highly recommend for a daily e-mail of inspiration).
Photo credit above: "Water runs off from a sprinkler in the Mount Olympus, a neighborhood in the Hollywood Hills area of Los Angeles, Wednesday, April 8, 2015. State regulators are naming and shaming local water departments that have let water wasters slide, and forcing them to slash water use by as much as a third." (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
Scientists Explore Changes to Tornado Warnings. WOODTV.com in Grand Rapids, Michigan has the story - here's an excerpt about Doppler radar that caught my eye:
- Radars have changed the way they scan the skies to better spot small tornadoes. Now when a storm is near, a radar is programmed to scan the base of a storm more frequently. This could help spot quick-starting tornadoes, like the one that rolled through Kentwood in 2014 un-warned.
- National Weather Service radars are all now “Dual-Pol,” which means they send out horizontal and vertically propagating microwaves. This helps meteorologists identify the size and shape of particles in the sky, which means the radar can identify debris from tornadoes on the ground...
TODAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Winds: NW 15 High: 52
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing, still cool. Low: 36
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and pleasantly mild. High: 64
SUNDAY: Fading sun, late-day T-shower. Wake-up: 50. High: 68
MONDAY: Clearing - a spring in your step. Wake-up: 40. High: 67
TUESDAY: Breezy and warm. Feels like May! Wake-up: 47. High: 74
WEDNESDAY: Showers and T-storms likely, some heavy/severe? Wake-up: 53. High: 57
THURSDAY: Cooler with mainly PM showers. Wake-up: 46. High: 55
Photo credit above: "Permafrost on northeastern Spitsbergen, Svalbard." Credit: Olafur Ingolfsson via NASA.