* Potential for
river flooding on the Mississippi near Fort Ripley into the holiday weekend. Details from
NOAA.
62 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities Wednesday.
71 F. average high on May 20.
78 F. high on May 20, 2014.
May 20, 1892:
Very late season snowfall over central Minnesota. Maple Plain received 4
inches of snow, with 3 inches falling in Minneapolis. This is the
latest significant snow on record for the Twin Cities, and one of the
latest widespread snowfalls in Minnesota.
May 20, 1876: Tornado struck near Ft. Ripley.
In Search of Rush HourPick
your poison: winter or road repair? I would wager a stale bagel that
more Minnesotans are complaining about traffic conditions than the
weather these days.
A recent Google Traffic map looked like something scribbled by a troubled child with a red crayon.
Wait,
did I miss the announcement? Has someone from New Jersey Gov. Chris
Christie's staff seized control of MnDOT? "Let's choke off most
north-south freeways in the metro and see what happens!"
(Insert evil laughter here).
No, the roads don't repair themselves, and every time I fly east I give thanks for our highway system here in Minnesota. That said I did want to thank the construction-scheduling gurus for making the weather forecasters look good. That's pretty hard to pull off.
At
least rain won't add to any traffic torment anytime soon. In fact the
holiday weekend outlook looks a little better. After a flawless sky
today into much of
Saturday clouds increase
Sunday afternoon; the best chance of showers
Sunday night with a stray T-storm bubbling up
Monday.
ECMWF guidance suggests most of the weekend will be dry & lukewarm
with enough peeks of sun for a respectable sunburn. Not bad for a
holiday.
Remember to slow down in construction zones, and please avoid the urge to drive from north to south.
Holiday Weekend Mixed Bag of Weather.
Saturday still appears to be the nicest, sunniest (driest) day of the
Memorial Day weekend with highs topping 70F. A shower is possible
Sunday, best chance at night, with a stray T-shower or two on Memorial
Day - a better chance of T-storms next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures run close to average through the period. Source:
Weatherspark.
Soggy Spell First Half of Next Week.
GFS guidance shows a plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico sparking
numerous showers and T-storms from Texas to Minnesota and Wisconsin
from Monday into Wednesday of next week, maybe some 2-4" rainfall
amounts fro the Plains into the Midwest. Source: AerisWeather.
May's Torrential Rainstorms Super-Charged by Strengthening Climate Patterns.
A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, and El Nino may be spiking
heavy rain events with a much more active southerly branch of the jet
stream. Here's an excerpt from The Capital Weather Gang: "...
Taken
as a whole, these events appear to have at least two things in common — a
burgeoning El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, and a well-documented upward trend in extreme rainfall events.
Though the pattern tends to be more obvious in the winter months, El
Niño’s very warm sea surface temperatures in the tropics tend to fuel a
wetter than normal pattern across the West and the South. At the very
least, last week’s Southwest storm looks to have been enhanced by El
Niño, which, according to recent model forecasts, is shaping up to be an
intense one..."
Graphic credit above: "
Extreme one-day precipitation events have been on the rise since the mid-20th century." (NOAA)
Past 12 Months Tied for Warmest on Record. I'm sure it's just another coincidence. Here's a link and story excerpt from
Climate Central: "...
April
capped a 12-month period that tied the warmest such stretch on record,
according to data released Tuesday. That period, going back to May 2014,
tied the previous record holder, the 12 months from April 2014 to March
2015. Of the 10 warmest 12-month periods on record, nine occurred in
the past two years, most of them in back-to-back stretches. The
clustering of such warm periods is a marker of how much global
temperatures have risen thanks to the human-driven buildup of heat-trapping gases in the Earth’s atmosphere..." (image credit above: NOAA)
80% of Sunscreens Don't Really Work Or Have "Worrisome" Ingredients: Report. Check out this article from
TIME before you slather on sunscreen; here's an excerpt: "...
The Environmental Working Group (EWG) released its 2015 sunscreen guide
on Tuesday, which reviewed more than 1,700 SPF products like
sunscreens, lip balms and moisturizers. The researchers discovered that
80% of the products offer “inferior sun protection or contain worrisome
ingredients like oxybenzone and vitamin A,” they say. Oxybenzone is a
chemical that can disrupt the hormone system, and some evidence
suggests—though not definitively—that adding vitamin A to the skin could
heighten sun sensitivity..."
1-Minute Satellite Updates on GOES-14. This is pretty amazing, an entirely new level of resolution and latency with satellite imagery. Here's an excerpt from
CIMSS Satellite Blog: "
GOES-14 is producing imagery at 1-minute intervals as part of Super-Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R (SRSO-R).
Sectors that are scanned change each day and are determined by likely
weather events. The animation above, in the southwest corner of the Monday May 18 sector shows strong convection over northern Louisiana. (A similar animation in mp4 format is available here (YouTube))
A benefit of 1-minute imagery is that it can capture the entire
lifecycle of overshooting tops, cloud-top features that typically form
and decay in less than 10 minutes..."
Infoporn: When Is The Next Major Hurricane Going To Hit? We haven't seen a major hurricane drought this long since the 1860s, according to a fascinating story at
WIRED; here's an excerpt: "...
This is weird. A study published last week in Geophysical Research Letters looked
at just how rare a hurricane drought like this is, analyzing
weather records back to 1851. Turns out it’s the longest stretch without
a major hurricane ever. The last time the US came close to it was all
the way back in the 1860s, when the coast went 8 years dry..."
Remarkable Weather Graphics. I give credit where credit is due, and I have to say I'm very impressed with the
new graphics
being used as explainers on The Weather Channel. Check out Jim
Cantore's excellent visualization of tornadogenesis - rumor is this is
WSI's new "Reality" graphics package. All I can say is well done: "
Did you miss it? Jim Cantore gave this incredible step-by-step look inside a tornado this morning on AMHQ with Sam Champion."
Why You Should Never Use Your Own Vehicle to Chase Tornadic Storms: Exhibit A.
Because the same supercells that spawn tornadoes often have extreme
updrafts capable of baseball or softball size hail. Check out this
YouTube video from Midwest Storm Chasers and Researchers: "
Video
from our chase May 17th in southwest Oklahoma - starting with some
massive softball hail falling at our location several miles away from
the main hail core of the supercell. We attempted to escape before the
windshield broke out but no such luck. This was the first time in the 7
years I've been chasing that I've lost a window from anything storm
chasing related..."
Hacking The Brain.
Will we be able to take pills to make ourselves smarter in the near
future? I sure hope so. Here's an excerpt from a vaguely terrifying
piece at
The Atlantic: "...
But
this dream has a dark side: The possibility of a dystopia where an
individual’s fate is determined wholly by his or her access to
cognition-enhancing technology. Where some ultra-elites are allowed to
push the limits of human intelligence, while the less fortunate lose any
chance of upward mobility. Where some Big Brother–like figure could
gain control of our minds and decide how well we function..."
TODAY: Sunny and beautiful. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 70
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear and pleasant. Low: 50
FRIDAY: Blue sky, perfect. Leave work early. High: 72
SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, still nice. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 55. High: 71
SUNDAY: Fading sun, nighttime showers. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 56. High: 72
MEMORIAL DAY: Intervals of sun, stray T-shower. Wake-up: 57. High: 71
TUESDAY: Better chance of T-showers. Wake-up: 59. High: 75
WEDNESDAY: Some sticky sun, isolated storm. Wake-up: 60. High: 78
Climate Stories....
Obama: Climate Change Poses Risk to U.S. Military, National Security. Reuters has the article; here's a clip: "...
The
Pentagon is assessing the vulnerability to climate change of its 7,000
bases, installations and facilities, many of which are on the coast, the
White House said. Obama is set to
highlight damage to the navy and air bases at Norfolk, Virginia, from
increasing floods, to Alaskan facilities built on thawing permafrost,
and to military training areas in western states from wildfires. "Climate change poses a threat to the readiness of our forces," he is expected to say..." (File photo: AP).
House Republicans Slash NASA's Earth-Science Budget. Here's the introduction to a story at the
National Journal: "
House Republicans unveiled the details of a spending bill
on Tuesday that would cut the amount of money NASA spends on earth
science and climate-change research. The push arrives on the heels of a concerted effort
by congressional Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz, a 2016
presidential hopeful, to steer NASA away from the study of climate
change and towards space exploration. It takes place against the
backdrop a broader GOP effort to sink President Obama's ambitious agenda
to tackle rising greenhouse gases and stave off the worst impacts of
global warming..." (Image above: NASA).
Investors With $25 Trillion Detail Opportunity in Climate Change. It's a threat, and an opportunity to retool, reinvent and build more resilience into everything we do. Here's an excerpt from
Bloomberg Business: "...
As
more than 1,000 executives gather in Paris to discuss their response to
climate change, a group of investors managing $25 trillion opened a web portal
detailing the action being taken to cut pollution. Four investor groups
representing 265 institutions worldwide joined the United Nations
Environment Program in opening a web portal that will show which
projects gained finance to rein in global warming. The move reflects a
shift in the business community toward embracing the inevitability of
stricter regulations on fossil fuels and more incentives for cleaner
forms of energy..."
The "Shocking" Cost of Letting Companies Pollute for Free. Here's an excerpt of an Eric Roston column at
Bloomberg Business: "...
In
that context, letting companies pollute for free, when that pollution
carries a real social cost, can be thought of as a subsidy. That's how
researchers at the International Monetary Fund describe energy subsidies
in a sobering new paper that puts a comprehensive price tag on global aid to the energy industry. The price tag, which IMF officials describe as "shocking," is
a big one: This year, the report estimates, fossil fuels are being
subsidized to the tune of $5.3 trillion, or 6.5 percent of global gross
domestic product..." (Image credit: EPA).
Obama Drills a Hole In His Climate Policy. If
you're confused and disappointed about President Obama giving a green
light to Shell to drill in the Arctic you're not alone. Here's a snippet
of a column at
The Washington Post: "...
Since
some oil has to stay where it is, why not attack the supply side of the
equation by firmly deciding to keep drilling rigs out of the Arctic
Ocean? The environmental risk alone would justify saying no to Shell’s
plans; a big spill would be a disaster. But even if Arctic oil can be
exploited without mishap, we’re talking about billions of gallons of oil
being added to a market that is presently glutted. It doesn’t matter
whether that oil is eventually burned in New York or New Delhi, in Los
Angeles or Lagos. If we don’t take a stand in the Arctic, then where?
And if not now, when?"
Photo credit above: "
The
Polar Pioneer drilling rig sits docked at the Port of Seattle, Monday,
May 18, 2015, in Seattle. Demonstrators opposed to Arctic oil drilling
rallied near the rig Monday, showing opposition to a lease agreement
between Royal Dutch Shell and the Port to allow the Polar Pioneer and
other drilling equipment to be based in Seattle." (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren).
Americans Like To Have 6 Times More Very Hot Days by 2100: Study.
Reuters has a summary of recent research; here's the intro: "
Americans
are likely to have six times more days above 35 degrees Celsius (95
Fahrenheit) by 2100, partly because of climate change, scientists said
on Monday, with heat already linked to hundreds of deaths a year in the
United States. By the late
21st century, exposure to sweltering heat would leap to between 10 and
14 billion "person days" a year, a team led by Bryan Jones of the Baruch
College School of Public Affairs in New York wrote in the journal
Nature Climate Change..."
* the full report at Nature Climate Change is
here.
Chemo For The Planet.
With nations collectively sitting on their hands, energy demand
continuing to grow and little chance of a price on carbon in the near
future will we be relegated to cooling things down with geoengineering,
injecting man-made chemicals into the stratosphere? Again I ask the
rhetorical question: what can possibly go wrong? Here's an excerpt of a
New York Times column that's worth a look: "...
Fossil
fuels remain the world’s default energy source, and — despite the
impressive growth of global solar capacity over the last decade — that’s
likely to be the case for decades to come. A carbon tax on the worst
emitters has gotten nowhere. So maybe we need to start thinking about
coming at the climate-change problem from a different direction. Instead
of hoping that humans will start reducing their carbon use, maybe it’s
time to at least consider using technology to keep climate change at
bay..."
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