61 F. high temperature on Friday.
71 F. average high on September 18.
75 F. high on September 18, 2014.
.07" of rain fell yesterday at MSP International Airport.
September 19, 1998: 1 to 1 3/4 inch hail fell in Meeker, Wright, Todd, and Wilkin Counties winds were also estimated over 50kts.
September 19, 1980: Golfball to baseball sized hail hit St. Paul. One company had 75 to 95 percent of the glass in their greenhouses smashed
Raining Cats and Dogs....
Extended Summer Hangover?
In
the 1500s houses had thatched roofs of thick straw. It was the only
place for animals to get warm, so all the pets - dogs, cats (and mice,
rats and bugs) lived in the roof. When it rained roofs got slippery, and
sometimes the animals would slip and fall off. Thus the saying, "it's
raining cats and dogs".
That sure summed up
Thursday's
deluge, when a record 2.37 inches fell at MSP; Doppler estimated over 5
inches in parts of western Wisconsin. There was a remarkable amount of
water in the air for mid-September. More details below.
In spite
of this morning's jacket-worthy breeze I see a warm weather bias
spilling into at least early October. 70s return next week, maybe 80s
next weekend. NOAA's GFS guidance shows an almost August-like bubble of
warm, stagnant air over the eastern 2/3rds of America into the first
week of October.
In previous years we've seen flurries and hard
freezes by the third week of September. Expect the unexpected, right?
Enjoy
a weekend of cool, comfortable sunshine. I suspect air conditioners may
be chugging away into October. Winter is coming, at least on paper.
* Photo credit:
Flickr.
Thursday Rainfall Amounts.
Residents of the northern and western suburbs may be scratching their
heads. They missed the heaviest rains, which fell over the downtowns and
eastern suburbs. Here are 24-hour rainfall amounts, courtesy of NOAA
and AerisWeather.
Clarity on Thursday's Torrential Rains. Dr. Mark Seeley has more detail on the tropical deluges that fell Thursday in this week's
Minnesota WeatherTalk: "...
The
warm weather also brought with it higher dew points which reached into
the 70s F on the 16th and 17th. The precipitable water measured in the
Chanhassen balloon sounding on September 17th was a record amount at
1.91 inches, a remarkably large number for the month of September. This
helped fuel some thunderstorm activity that dropped significant
rainfall in many places. Many observers reported from 0.50 inches to
1.50 inches of rain, and Stillwater received between 2.50 and 3.00
inches. Mahtomedi reported 3.43 inches, and MSP airport set a new daily
record with 2.37 inches. In some areas the National Weather Service
put out flash flood warnings..."
Map: AerisWeather.
Thursday: "Almost a Top 10" Wettest September Day. AerisWeather meteorologist D.J. Kayser compiled the data and made the map. At 2.37" we came very close on Thursday.
Unusual Jet Stream Configuration for Early October.
NOAA's GFS forecast of 500mb winds shows an odd, blocking high pressure
bubble of unseasonably warm air stretching east of the Rockies;
temperatures may be 10-20F warmer than average IF this forecast
verifies.
Symptoms of El Nino.
NOAA CPC (Climate Prediction Center) predicts a mild bias for Alaska,
the west coast, the northern USA and much of New England for October
(top graphics) and October thru December (bottom graphics). At the rate
we're going, with the temperature anomalies we're seeing across the
northern hemisphere, that's not hard to believe.
Less Snow This Winter for Minnesota and Wisconsin?
That's a hypothetical, I don't pretend to have the answer, but I'd bet a
stale bagel that we'll wind up with less snow than average, as El Nino
shifts the main branch of the storm track south of Minnesota; more mild,
Pacific air penetrating well inland than during a typical winter (when
polar winds dominate). My confidence level is low, every El Nino is
different, but the probability of a milder winter is significantly
higher. Snowfall could go either way (there's no obvious correlation
with El Nino) but NOAA CPC predicts drier weather from January thru
March, 2016 from Montana to Minnesota to the Great Lakes. Californians
are hoping this forecast verifies, with wetter than normal weather
predicted from the southwest USA to Florida and the East Coast.
97% Odds 2015 Will Be Warmest Year on Record.
Where have I seen the 97% number before? Right, that's the percentage
of published, peer-reviewed climate scientists who see a human role in
the warming underway, worldwide. El Nino is turbocharging that warming
as unusual warmth in the Pacific juices the atmosphere. Here's an
excerpt from NOAA's
climate.gov: "...
These
circumstances raise an interesting question: given the global surface
temperature data through July 2015, what is the likelihood that 2015
will be the warmest year on record? A few of us at NOAA’s National
Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) decided to investigate. To
answer this question, we consider two approaches that rely only on
historical statistics that describe how the remainder of the year may
play out. In other words, we don’t rely on any physical predictors such
as El Niño conditions or forecasts of future weather or climate. We use
only the well-documented, quality-controlled historical monthly global
surface temperature data archived at NCEI...."
* More perspective on a very hot summer (and year) from
Mashable.
Hottest August on Record, Worldwide. It was also the hottest meteorological summer. Here's an excerpt from
NOAA NCDC: "...
The
combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for
August 2015 was 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.6°C
(60.1°F) and the highest August in the 136-year record. This value
surpassed the previous record set in 2014 by 0.09°C (0.16°F). Most of
the world's surface was substantially warmer than average and, in some
locations, record warm during August 2015, contributing to the monthly
global record warmth. This was the sixth month in 2015 that has broken
its monthly temperature record (February, March, May, June, July, and
August)..."
The California Wildfires: What's Making This Season so Wild? The New York Times has a good explainer and interview; here's a snippet: "...
Two
reasons: drought and heat. Vegetation in California, from the mesquite
scrub in the desert to the tall pines in the Sierra Nevada, is as dry as
kindling after a yearslong drought, the worst in the state’s recorded
history. So fire catches more easily, spreads faster and carries farther
on the wind. The state’s major reservoirs hold less than half the water
they typically contain at this time of year, many wells have run dry,
and underground aquifers are so depleted that in some places, the ground
has been sinking as much as two inches per month..."
Photo credit above: "A
news crew runs from flames southeast of Middletown, Calif., on Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2015, as winds kick up the Valley fire." (Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times/TNS)
A Wet Winter Won't Save California.
El Nino inspired rains may settle the dust, but the pattern appears to
be shifting in a way that favors more heat and drought for the western
USA. Catching up in the rainfall department. Here's a snippet from
The New York Times: "...
The second is that California is facing a new climate reality, in which extreme drought is more likely. The state’s water rights, infrastructure and management were designed for an old climate, one that no longer exists. Our research has shown that global warming
has doubled the odds of the warm, dry conditions that are intensifying
and prolonging this drought, which now holds records not only for lowest precipitation and highest temperature, but also for the lowest spring snowpack
in the Sierra Nevada in at least 500 years. These changing odds make it
much more likely that similar conditions will occur again, exacerbating
other stresses on agriculture, ecosystems and people..." (Photo credit: NOAA).
Linkage Between Efficiency and Connectivity?
Everyone seems to be taking a cue from Tesla, which may be wondering if
imitation is, in fact, the most sincere form of flattery? And I didn't
connect the dots between making cars more fuel efficient and rolling
smartphones until I read
this article at The New York Times; here's an excerpt: "...
Even
without competition from Apple and Google, the carmakers are under
extreme pressure to change the way they build cars. Regulators in Europe
and the United States are demanding that cars emit less carbon dioxide,
a culprit in global warming. The only way the automakers can meet
increasingly stringent emissions standards is by selling more hybrid
vehicles, and eventually all-electric cars.
Both technologies require more software than gasoline or diesel
engines. Technology that links cars to data networks, so-called
connectivity, also plays a role in reducing emissions and satisfying
regulators. Systems that help drivers quickly find a parking space or
avoid traffic jams, besides being convenient, help limit unnecessary
driving and save fuel..." (Is that driver on her phone AND reading a book?)
Which Cities In The World Are Closest to Nixing Fossil Fuels? National Geographic has more details; here are two snippets: "...
Cities
like Reykjavik and Zurich have already quit using fossil fuels to
produce power, and others plan to cut back. A new survey reveals just
far 162 of them have gone....Also this week, officials in Aspen, Colorado said their city became the third in the United States—
after Burlington, Vermont, and Greensburg, Kansas—to run entirely on
renewable energy. They’re boosting wind power, which emits zero carbon
dioxide, and eliminating coal, which produces more CO2 than oil or gas when burned..."
Image credit: Data provided by cities, NG STAFF
. SOURCES: CDP; AECOM.
No Red or Blue Divide When it Comes to Renewable Energy Innovation and CO2 Rules. Andrew Revkin has a story at The New York Times: "...First,
most states are in the pastel middle ranges in terms of voters
reporting that they are worried about global warming. That’s a finding
that can be interpreted differently, in Rorschach ink blot fashion. But I think it’s most meaningful considered in the context of Gallup findings showing global warming still at the bottom of environmental concerns. The bottom line is “meh”
finding, as my younger son’s generation might say.But now look at the
breadth of support across the United States for using pollution
regulations to curb carbon dioxide, the main human-generated greenhouse
gas..."
Map credit above:
"Voters in every state supported regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant in 2014, according to a new study.
" Yale University.
Found: A GoPro That Went to the Edge of Space and Got Lost for Two Years. How cool is this? Details via
Atlas Obscura: "
In June 2013, after months of planning, five friends launched a GoPro to the edge of space.
They attached the camera to a weather balloon, along with a phone that
logged the contraption's location and was programmed to send back a
message once it returned to cell phone range. They sent the phone off
from a spot about 20 miles from the Grand Canyon. It went up, up, up…and
then disappeared. They never heard back from the phone about its
location and figured they'd miscalculated at some point..."
The Art of "Farecasting" the Lowest Airfare. There's some good advice in a recent
New York Times story; here's a clip: "...
My go-to tool is Google Flights.
It’s swift yet comprehensive. And it has the essential filters (like
fare class and stops) but requires few keystrokes to unearth all that
information. Plug your travel dates into the search box and monthly
calendars pop up with fares on each day (green fares are lowest), so
you’ll instantly know if you should tweak your arrival or departure to
score a better deal. Google Flights is also my top pick because it makes
searching for premium economy, business and first class fares simpler
than most of its competitors, thanks to a drop-down menu on its landing
page..."
TODAY: Sunny and beautiful/ Winds: W 8-13. High: near 70
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear and cool. Low: 50
SUNDAY: Blue sky, milder breeze. Winds: S 10-15. High: 72
MONDAY: Warm sunshine, very nice. Wake-up: 57. High: 78
TUESDAY: Patchy clouds move in. Wake-up: 58. High: 72
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, still mild. Wake-up: 61. High: 79
THURSDAY: Sticky sun, T-storms north. Wake-up: 63. High: 77
FRIDAY: What September? Storms around town. Wake-up: 61. High: 79
Climate Stories....
10 Largest Companies "Obstructing" Climate Policy. Here's an excerpt from a story at
EcoWatch: "...
The
companies receiving the lowest grades come as no surprise. Among them
are major fossil fuel companies such as Chevron, BP, Duke Energy and
Phillips 66. And at the bottom of the list is climate denying
extraordinaire Koch Industries.
Interestingly, two media companies even make the list: 21st Century Fox
and Comcast. Here are the 10 worst companies on InfluenceMap’s list..."
11 Republicans Vow to Fight Climate Change. A crack in the armor? Here's an excerpt from
TheHill: "...
Led
by Rep. Chris Gibson (R-N.Y.), the lawmakers want the House to go on
record to generally agree with the overwhelming consensus of scientists
that human activity, through greenhouse gases, is warming the globe. The
resolution frames climate change as an issue of environmental
stewardship, which it says has a long history in the United States.
They’re introducing the non-binding legislation a week before Pope
Francis speaks to Congress. He is expected to call for action on climate
change, following up on his encyclical earlier this year asking world
leaders to fight global warming..." (Image: NASA).
David Letterman Will Explore Climate Change for National Geographic Docu-Series. If you didn't see Season 1 of "Years of Living Dangerously" it's worth tracking down. Here's the intro to a story at
Variety: "
David Letterman
has a new hosting gig – of sorts. The veteran late-night comedian will
in 2016 journey to India to examine how that nation is trying to bring
solar power to its entire population within the next decade. It’s a far
cry from rattling off the popular Top Ten Lists and Stupid Pet Tricks
that were so much a part of his more than three decades of wee-hours
television for CBS and NBC. But it’s a chance for Letterman to give
voice to the issue of climate change on a new, albeit temporary, home: National Geographic Channel..." (Photo credit: CBS).
"Years of Living Dangerously".
National Geographic has more information on season 2; here's a clip: "...
Correspondents
will cover crucial issues like severe hurricanes, historic droughts,
and the rapidly increasing extinction rate of our planet’s wildlife
through emotional first-person accounts. Jack Black, Ty Burrell, James
Cameron, Thomas Friedman, Joshua Jackson, David Letterman, Aasif Mandvi,
Olivia Munn, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ian Somerhalder and Cecily Strong
will share their personal stories surrounding the effects of climate
change..."
Trump Mostly Dismisses Climate Change, Blames China. Here's an excerpt from
The Sun Times Network: "...
I
consider climate change to be not one of our big problems,” Trump said.
“I consider it to be not a big problem at all.” “I think it’s weather; I
think it’s weather changes,” Trump said.“There could be some man-made
something. But, you know, if you look at China, they’re doing nothing
about it, other countries are doing nothing about it...”
Photo credit: Ian Thomas Jansen-Lonnquist/The New York Times.
Two Powerful Studies Expose Manipulation of Climate Debate. Why? Big companies that rely on fossil fuels are worried about their stock price and being disrupted. Here's a clip from
Clean Technica: "...
Two
extensive studies released yesterday (September 16, 2015) reveal a
long-term betrayal of the truth about climate by major US business
identities. Make-believe corporate “persons” have knowingly undermined
the health, safety, and even short-term survival of real humans and
other living things. One of the studies explores the metamorphosis of
ExxonMobil to “the dark side” over the past 40 years. The other
implicates almost half of the world’s 100 largest companies, including
Procter & Gamble and Duke Energy, in obstructing climate change
legislation..."
Photo credit above: "
Exxon’s
Richard Werthamer (right) and Edward Garvey (left) aboard the company’s
Esso Atlantic tanker measuring carbon dioxide levels in the ocean and
atmosphere during a 1979-1982 project." (Richard Werthamer, via ICN).
Exxon Believed Deep Dive into Climate Research Would Protect Its Business. Here is an excerpt from the second installment of an investigative series from
InsideClimate News: "...
Exxon
documents show that top corporate managers were aware of their
scientists' early conclusions about carbon dioxide's impact on the
climate. They reveal that scientists warned management that policy
changes to address climate change might affect profitability. After a
decade of frank internal discussions on global warming and conducting
unbiased studies on it, Exxon changed direction in 1989 and spent more
than 20 years discrediting the research its own scientists had once
confirmed. After reading the first chapter of InsideClimate News' series
on Exxon's carbon dioxide research, the company declined to answer
specific questions. In an email, Exxon spokesman Richard D. Keil said he
would no longer respond to inquiries from InsideClimate News, and
added, "ExxonMobil scientists have been involved in climate research and
related policy analysis for more than 30 years, yielding more than 50
papers in peer-reviewed publications..."
Photo credit above: "
Researchers
conducted Exxon's first climate-related project aboard the Esso
Atlantic tanker, pictured here, between 1979 and 1982."
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