Cool and Quiet
Potential for Hurricane Joaquin?
I savor every moment of quiet weather, but when it's too calm, for too long, my nervous twitch begins to act up. Minnesota has just experienced a Chamber of Commerce Summer; one of the 3 best since 1903. The afterglow spilled into a very August-like September.
While we decide which light jacket to try on, residents of the East Coast will be monitoring Tropical Storm Joaquin. Both the ECMWF and NOAA's HWRF model "hook" a potential hurricane inland; landfall between the Chesapeake Bay and New York City Saturday. It's still too early to hoot and holler about "another Sandy" but water in the Gulf Stream is unusually warm; the potential for a major storm impacting the Northeast by late week is significant.
Minnesota's weather won't make news anytime soon: a cool-blue sky from today into the weekend. Highs reach the upper 50s and low 60s - a few degrees cooler than average, for a change. The next chance of rain comes a week from today.
Freeze Warnings are posted for northern Minnesota, but I don't see a frost/freeze near the metro through the 2nd week of October, as we limp into fall.
* NOAA's 18z Monday HWRF model output valid Friday evening, map courtesy of WeatherBell.
* Unusually quiet 2015 may end next weekend; models hinting at potential for tropical storm or hurricane development in the Atlantic which may impact Mid Atlantic, Northeast, even New England by Saturday. We will probably be tracking Tropical Storm Joaquin within 48 hours.
* Confidence levels are (very) low; this is a preliminary (cover your butt) heads-up, but the normally reliable ECMWF and NOAA's HWRF model show an elevated risk of tropical development capable of flooding rains and beach erosion and coastal flooding - with the greatest potential for landfall Saturday into early Sunday.
* Tropical Depression 11 has formed - NOAA NHC (National Hurricane Center) shows strengthening to tropical storm status later this week, with the brunt of impacts remaining offshore until reaching New England with torrential rains next weekend. This solution is certainly possible, but ECMWF (specifically) is hinting at a strong system - even a hurricane - hooking inland, similar to Sandy in 2012. Again, it's very early. We want to examine a few more model runs before we can issue a forecast with moderate to strong confidence. We're not there yet, but you should definitely keep an eye on this system for facilities from Raleigh and Norfolk to Washington D.C., New York and Boston.
Summary: There's a strong probability of tropical storm development (Joaquin) in the next few days, and at least a 1 in 3 chance that Joaquin will become a hurricane, with possible impacts along the East Coast of the USA. It's still much too early to try to get specific with path and intensity. Facilities from the Carolinas to New England should be on alert for possible impacts; more updates as new information arrives.
Paul Douglas, Senior Meteorologist, AerisWeather
New York City Flood Risk Rising Due To Climate Change. More intense storms and rising seas are a bad combination. Here's an excerpt from USA TODAY: "The risk of major New York City flooding — such as what happened during Superstorm Sandy in 2012 — is likely to occur once every 25 years, rather than every 500 years, as a result of human-caused global warming, says a study released Monday. The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that flood heights have risen about 4 feet since the year 850 to 2005, largely because of sea-level rise. "Sea level is rising because of climate change," said Penn State meteorologist Michael Mann, one of the study's scientists. "But climate change also appears to be leading to larger and more intense tropical storms," he said..." (File photo: NOAA).
Graphic credit above: "Estimates of three life-years saved per 100 microgram decrease of total suspended particles per cubic meter." Michael Greenstone; E.P.A.
Photo credit above: "Renewable energy sources (combined solar, wind and biofuel) have overtaken coal, the most polluting energy source, in the UK for the first time."(Credit: Shutterstock)
Photo credit above: "Diesel car engines like this one in a 2012 Volkswagen Golf are among those that include software that circumvents EPA emissions standards for certain air pollutants." Patrick Pleul/DPA/Landov.
TODAY: Comfortable sunshine, fresh breeze. Winds: N 7-12. High: 63
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear and crisp. Low: 40
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of cool sunshine. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 62
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake-up: 42. High: 63
FRIDAY: Status quo. Cool sunshine. Wake-up: 42. High: 62
SATURDAY: Atmospheric holding pattern. Still dry. Wake-up: 43. High: 63
SUNDAY: Blue sky, less wind. Wake-up: 44. High: 62
MONDAY: Ditto. Cool sunshine. Wake-up: 44. High: 63
File photo above: Daniella Beccaria/seattlepi.com via AP, File.
File photo credit above: "Smoke billows from a coal-fired power plant in Beijing, China, Nov. 13, 2014." AP.
Photo credit above: Evan Vucci—AP. "
Photo credit above: " " Credit Lalo de Almeida for The New York Times
Photo credit above: "Pope Francis walking into the U.N. General Assembly." Credit: Eskinder Debebe/U.N.
* Here are the Republicans in Congress who don't believe climate change is real, courtesy of The Guardian.