Puddle Potential - Minor Reality Check Coming
Yes, my forecast is accurate - somewhere in North America. The reality: weather forecasts are fairly close, most of the time. But there will be occasions where we blow it, when elements conspire to keep us humble. It's a steep learning curve, and you're never done learning.
Exhibit A: yesterday's forecast. We thought we'd see 70F, but fog and stratus persisted, keeping us 10 degrees cooler. Fog in November is rare, but when it forms a sun angle as high in the sky as it was in early February is unable to burn it away, resulting in a stubborn canopy of gray. (Wednesday visible satellite loop above courtesy of WeatherTap).
We get off to a mild start today - weather more typical of late September. A rush of cooler air sparks showers today as temperatures tumble by evening. Expect partial clearing Friday with a stiff breeze and 40s; typical weather for the 1st week of November. 50s return early next week; above average once again. Models spin up a potentially big storm over the Midwest late next week. The brunt of any rain may stay south and east of Minnesota - a trend we may see much of the winter.
A mild bias lingers the next 3 weeks. At this rate I doubt we'll have snow on the ground for Thanksgiving.
File photo of Hurricane Felix: NASA.
Photo credit above: "The flooded Battery Park Tunnel in New York City following Hurricane Sandy in October 2012." Credit: Timothy Krause/flickr.
1. Most meteorologists are NOT on TV: Like engineering or teaching, there are different types of meteorologists. Of the 14,000 or so members of AMS, less than 10% of them are in the television world, according to Executive Director, Dr. Keith Seitter. TV colleagues are the most accessible and obvious window to the public but only a fraction of the meteorology and atmospheric sciences community. For career options in meteorology, this website is a good start..." (File image: UCAR).
File photo credit: The Washington Post by Andrew Spear.
Map credit above: NG STAFF. SOURCE: UNITED STATES ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
Power plants in the dry U.S. Southwest must often cut back generation because there is not enough cooling water. Since 2011, California has been going through the worst drought since meteorological measurements began.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-11-grids-smart-weather-tomorrow-storms.html#jCp
2nd: Emporia, Kansas
3rd: Clearbrook, Abbotsford, British Columbia, Canada
4th: Three way tie—
Dickinson, North Dakota
5th: Independence, Missouri
The tastings are the main attraction, but the gathering also includes seminars and discussions about public health and environmental issues around water..." (Image credit: Jeanne Mozier).
Image credit above: Terrafugia, which IS building a flying car. My faith in progress is renewed.
FRIDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 47
SATURDAY: Partly sunny, feels like November. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 34. High: 46
SUNDAY: Plenty of sunshine, milder breeze. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: 57
MONDAY: Intervals of sun, warmer than average. Wake-up: 41. High: 58
TUESDAY: Clouds increase, still amazingly quiet. Wake-up: 42. High: 56
WEDNESDAY: Periods of rain possible. Wake-up: 43. High: near 50
Image credit: NASA.
File image credit above: "A view of the Exxon Mobil refinery in Baytown, Texas in this file photo from September 15, 2008." Jessica Rinaldi/Reuters.
My take: The story was on the radar of at least some in the newsroom, but it seems to have fallen through the cracks..."While it was not a major headline story, I think it meets the interesting test and thus NPR should have reported on it in some fashion on at least one of our outlets/platforms. Exxon Mobil is the world's largest publicly traded multinational oil and gas company and the debate and research decades ago is interesting in light of contemporary knowledge and action on climate change. Daily conversations at our editorial hub typically cross a range of subjects and stories from across the globe. It is unfortunate that this topic didn't come up there or in any conversation or email that I was a part of. It should have been flagged by someone so we could have discussed it and made an intentional decision to cover or not and if so, how.
Would you like to explore where your faith intersections with weather and climate change? On Saturday, November 7th at 9a in Prior Lake, Shepherd of the Lake Lutheran Church is hosting a Creation Care event that will examine the intersection of faith, climate change and weather. The event is free. Childcare is provided for those that RSVP. Presenters include faith leaders from the Lutheran, Methodist, MCC and Catholic church, Dr. John Abraham (climate scientist from the University of St. Thomas) and me. RSVP at: http://www.sollc.org/creationcare.
Apple, Google Microsoft Among Best Companies Protecting Climate. Bloomberg Business has the story; here's an excerpt: "...The three U.S. technology giants, worth a combined $1.6 trillion, are among the 113 corporations awarded an ‘A’ grade for their efforts to reduce heat-trapping emissions, according to the report Wednesday from the U.K. nonprofit CDP. That list was whittled down from a larger pool of 1,997 companies around the world that submitted data to the group formerly known as the Carbon Disclosure Project..."
'You lose Miami almost immediately.'The wild card in the model, Levermann conceded, is the timing of these events..."
Photo credit above: Dean Lewins/EPA.
Photo credit above: "