69 F. record high on November 10, set in 2012.
45 F. average high on November 10.
31 F. high on November 10, 2014.
November 11, 1940: The Great Armistice Day Blizzard kills 49 people in Minnesota. Food dropped by Pilot Max Conrad saved stranded hunters. The barometer fell to 28.66 inches at Duluth. Some roads were so badly blocked with snow they weren't opened until Nov. 22.
How Weather Forecasting Is Like Fantasy Football
Much-Needed Soaking Tonight
So, how's your fantasy football team doing? (crickets). Not quite working out the way you thought? Wait, you weren't able to predict injuries or trades weeks in advance? Welcome to my world.
The physics that powers our weather models isn't perfect. Neither is the data, the fuel, that fuels the models. It's a little like putting old gasoline into a 1968 Dodge; wondering why you can't get good fuel mileage. Junk in - junk out. The winter forecast for Minnesota depends on El Nino, snow depth in Siberia, and wobbles in the general circulation we can't even track today.
A year ago MSP was digging out from over 3 inches of snow. The storm that slushed up the metro November 10-11 dumped a foot on central Minnesota. The first 9 days of November, 2015 were 11.6F warmer than average - more typical of Topeka, Kansas.
1-2 inches of badly needed rain is about to recharge soil moisture; the heaviest rains come tonight. By time time it's cold enough to snow the moisture will be gone; a few flakes on Thursday, a dull reminder that it's mid-November.
I'm betting on a pale-green Thanksiving.
...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... .A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA. THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO MANKATO...AND THEN SOUTH TO THE IOWA BORDER. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AND IS LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WILLMAR...LE CENTER AND OWATONNA. THIS POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY ACROSS IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE...LOOSE OBJECTS THAT CAN BE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT BY THE STRONG WINDS AND SOME LIGHT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. PLUS...SOME COMMERCIAL POWER INTERRUPTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.
* Significant severe storm scenario brewing for Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening hours; primary risk is violent straight-line winds over 70 mph in a few cases. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
* Band of heavy rain north and west of the severe threat may create minor urban flooding issues late Wednesday into early Thursday.
The pattern is becoming more volatile, and models show much of the central and eastern USA pushing into a colder, stormier pattern over the next 7-10 days - capable of spinning up more significant rain and snow storms. We'll keep you posted.
Senior Meteorologist, AerisWeather
Image credit: U.S. National Ice Center, Naval Ice Center.
Image credit: earth.nullschool.net.
Image credit: University of North Carolina, Charlotte.
Map credit above: "Where temperatures for each state ranked for the period from January to October 2015." Credit: NOAA.
On Weather Satellites, Congressional Outlook Should Not be Clouded. Yes, keeping a fleet of operational weather satellites is optimal - if they begin to blink out we'll be flying blind. Here's an excerpt from TheHill: "...Congress' reluctance to fund these programs could have catastrophic consequences. For instance, the JPSS and Polar Follow-On satellites promise to shrink a storm's "cone of uncertainty" -- in other words, where and when a storm will strike -- by up to 75 percent when compared to weather forecasting systems without this technology. If the JPSS/PFO system had been online during 2005's Hurricane Rita, projections about the storm's path could have been narrowed by roughly 875 miles. This, in turn, would have made the evacuation effort far more effective and less costly, and non-impact areas could have maintained normal operations..." (Image credit: NOAA).
File Image credit above: "Satellite imagery of Iselle as it approaches the Big Island as a tropical storm in August 2014." Credit: NOAA
When The Sun Went Medieval on our Planet. Let's pray it doesn't happen again anytime soon - but it might not be a bad idea to adopt the motto of the Boy Scouts and be prepared (for anything). Here's an excerpt at Slate: "...We’ve known for a long time that the Sun is capable of producing huge magnetic explosions. In 2003 it let rip a series of solar storms so powerful that one of them set the record for the biggest flare seen in modern times. And the strongest known was also very first solar explosion ever seen — called the Carrington Event, after an astronomer who studied it — happened in 1859. It created aurora as far south as Mexico and Hawaii! Events like that can also create what are called geomagnetically induced currents (GICs): The Earth’s magnetic field shakes so violently that it induces currents in conductors on the ground. Telegraph operators reported being able to send messages even though the power was disconnected; enough electricity was flowing through the lines to work the devices..."
Image credit above: "An example of a powerful flare erupting on the Sun (from May 5, 2015). The NASA satellite SDO is one of many assets used to monitor solar activity." Photo by NASA/GSFC/SDO.
Photo credit above: "
File photo credit above: "Climate scientist, Prof John Schellnhuber, has advised Angela Merkel and Pope Francis." Photograph: Patrick Pleul/Corbis.
Graphic credit above: Pew Research Center, journalism.org. "November-to-November average rating per night for all three networks (NBC, CBS, ABC)". Nielson Media Research.
Image credit above: " Source: News Corp Australia.
TODAY: Rain develops by afternoon. Winds: E 10-15. High: 54
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain, heavy at times. Winds gust to 40+ mph. Low: 40
THURSDAY: Very windy, rain slowly tapers. Winds: NW 20-35+ High: 46
FRIDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: 42
SATURDAY: More sun, a good leaf-raking day. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 31. High: 54
SUNDAY: Mild sun, feels like early October. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 40. High: 58
MONDAY: Still mild, PM showers possible. Wake-up: 43. High: 53
TUESDAY: Periods of rain - cooling off. Wake-up: 46. High: 49 (falling)
3 Lessons From That Antarctic Ice Study. Measuring Antarctic ice isn't easy, as this article at Christian Science Monitor highlights; here's an excerpt: "...Scientists agree that none of the data-gathering tools are perfect. What they don’t agree on is which measurement tool – GRACE or ICESat – provides the most accurate data. “You’re talking about a continental-size area and changes in centimeters and millimeters,” explains Thomas P. Wagner, a NASA climate scientist, in an interview with the Monitor. “It’s very, very difficult to do this from space with a satellite, but one of the only ways to do it is by satellite,” he explains. But scientists are constantly improving their tools and learning more about the ice sheets..."
Photo credit above: "In this Jan. 26, 2015 photo, pieces of thawing ice are scattered along the beachshore at Punta Hanna, Livingston Island, South Shetland Island archipelago, Antarctica. Water is eating away at the Antarctic ice, melting it where it hits the oceans. As the ice sheets slowly thaw, water pours into the sea, 130 billion tons of ice (118 billion metric tons) per year for the past decade, according to NASA satellite calculations." (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)
Climate Change is the "Mother of All Risk" to National Security. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed written by an Iraq war veteran and former Special Advisor to the U.S. Army on Energy at TIME: "...One of the U.S. military’s less-noticed findings, however, is that there is clear consensus that climate change poses an immediate risk to national security. Military leaders recognize that they must lead by example and address the threat of climate change, and they are actively pushing goals to dramatically scale up renewable energy. The U.S. must replicate this leadership and seize the opportunity when countries meet this December in Paris to finalize a global deal on climate change..."
Image credit: Partnership For a Secure America.
Photo credit above: "Gene Karpinski, left with microphone, president of the League of Conversation Voters, speaks during a gathering in front of the White House to celebrate President Barack Obama's rejection of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline Friday, Nov. 6, 2015, in Washington." (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Photo credit above: "A sign is posted in front of TransCanada's Keystone pipeline facilities in Hardisty, Alberta, Canada, on Friday, Nov. 6, 2015. Following the Obama administration’s rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline, the oil industry faces the tricky task of making sure the crude oil targeted for the pipeline still gets where it needs to go." (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press via AP).
File photo: AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster.