Welcome to Kansas City!
Glancing Blows of Cold Air
"Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative" said Oscar Wilde. Hey, I resemble that remark! Weather is the pond in which we live - we can be forgiven for wondering (out loud) what's going on with the elements racing overhead.
Maybe it's a symptom of El Nino - or even a larger planetary warming trend. Whatever the cause, winter is in no great hurry this year. Models show a few lazy cold fronts into mid-November. Canada will stage a few half-hearted sneak attacks, but nothing polar anytime soon, nothing requiring a heavy coat, snow tires or heated seats.
Winds aloft, prevailing jet stream winds, generally howl from Seattle and Vancouver, not the Yukon.
GFS guidance hints at a (real) cold front after November 19 or so. At some point there will be payback. Until then we enjoy more 50s the first half of next week; temperatures drooping into the 40s by late week. A storm may brush southeastern Minnesota with a cold rain next Wednesday and Thursday, but no big storms are pending.
This is typical November weather - for Kansas City, Missouri. How 'bout those Royals!
* File photo above: city-data.com.
Warm Start to November. Yes, the first 5 days of November felt like September. Dr. Mark Seeley puts it all into perspective in this week's edition of Minnesota WeatherTalk; here's the intro: "Very warm conditions prevailed around the state over the first several days of November. At least 15 climate stations have reported a daytime high temperature this month of 70°F or higher, topped by 78°F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on the 3rd. The warmth reached as far north as Hibbing where it reached 64°F on the 3rd, while some western Minnesota observers (Canby, Appleton, and Madison) reported three consecutive afternoons with highs in the 70s F this first week of November which last happened in 1999 and 1975..."
Image credit here.
Onion Creek Residents Sue Austin Over Flood Response. The lawyers are happy - get ready for a flurry of lawsuits related to flooding and aging, in many cases, inadequate infrastructure and flood control systems around the USA, unable to cope with repeated 1 in 100 to 1 in 1,000 year floods. People living along Onion Creek have experienced 3 "historic" floods in the last 2 years. Here's the intro to a story at Austin American-Statesman: "Two survivors of the 2013 Onion Creek flooding are suing the city of Austin, contending they sustained life-altering injuries due to government negligence. The lawsuit, filed Oct. 30 in state court in Travis County, alleges that Austin failed to plan in 2013 for heavy flooding and failed to warn residents “of the propensity for flooding in their neighborhood.” It also alleges that Austin has failed to make meaningful improvements to the area’s early warning system since then, leaving residents in danger during the recent severe flooding..."
October 30, 2015 File photo credit: Ricardo Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP.
Graphic credit above: "The red line shows extreme fire risks rising inside a computer model as the climate changes. The blue line depicts a world in which humans have no effect on the climate. The black line indicates worsening drought." Credit: BAMS.
The Northern Hemisphere's Record-Shattering Tropical Cyclone Season, By The Numbers. A few eye-opening stats from Capital Weather Gang; here's an excerpt: "...Adding together the storms across all ocean basins, the number of intense tropical cyclones to form in the Northern Hemisphere in 2015 is unprecedented in modern records. 27 major tropical cyclones (winds greater than or equal to 111 mph) have occurred this year which is seven more than any other year. Year-to-date, Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a metric that measures overall hurricane season levels through a combination of frequency, intensity and duration, is at record high levels..."
Image credit above: "
Photo credit above: "Climate change plus local land use worsened prairie flooding in parts of Canada, according to a new scientific report. In this July, 2014 photo, the swollen Assiniboine River covers farmland in Manitoba, Canada." Photograph by Tim Smith, The Canadian Press, AP.
Image credit above:
U.S. Government Prepping Up For Solar Storm That Could Wipe Modern Civilization. Is the federal government, utilities and 9,000 power producers across the USA moving fast enough? Probably not - it will take a major disaster and crisis for the appropriate level of funding necessary to lower the risk - probably after the fact. Whether it's a hacker or foreign government bringing down the grid, or an X-class solar flare bringing down the grid, it's probably prudent to be mildly paranoid, and have a Plan B and Plan C, just in case. Here's an excerpt from Science Times: "...According to the 2008 National Academy of Sciences, in the United States alone, the cost would go as high as US$2.6 trillion. Furthermore, experts warned of electrical failure that could last for months if a severe solar storm hits the planet, and this can last longer if transformers are also destroyed. Scientists are estimating a 12 per cent chance that in 2022, a solar flare would hit Earth. The White House is now starting to create an emergency plan. In an interview with Gizmodo with John Kappenman, a space weather consultant, "Frankly, this could be one of the most severe natural disasters that the country, and major portions of the world, could face..." (File image: NASA).
Image credit above: " Photo: Jamie Schwaberow/Bloomberg News
SUNDAY: Sunny, windy and milder. Winds: S 15-25. High: 59
MONDAY: Plenty of sun, feels like mid-October. Wake-up: 39. High: 58
TUESDAY: Clouds increase, still mild. Wake-up: 42. High: 57
WEDNESDAY: Gray, chance of light rain. Wake-up: 44. High: 48
THURSDAY: Wet start, then partial clearing. Wake-up: 41. High: 47
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, chill in the air. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 37. Hiigh: 44
Graphic credit above: Kevin Cowtan.
Photo credit above: "Tennis fans at the 2014 Australian Open were treated to days of temperatures above 40C." AAP Image/Joe Castro.
Exxon Mobil Denies Lying About Global Warming. Here's the intro to a story at Scientific American: "Exxon Mobil Corp. insisted yesterday that it has not lied to its shareholders about the risks of climate change as it reacted to news that New York’s attorney general is investigating the company’s climate statements to investors. “Exxon Mobil recognizes that climate risks are real and responsible actions are warranted,” said Ken Cohen, the company’s vice president of public and government affairs, during a press call..."
The Harm Exxon Mobil Has Done. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at TheHill: "It may be hard to accept, but a single company may have set back all of humanity. Had Exxon Mobil listened to its own scientists rather than spread disinformation on climate change, the world might not have wasted three crucial decades during which global warming went from a prediction to a fact. Rather than apologize, Exxon Mobil’s reaction to recent investigations that detail the corporation’s deception on climate science has been both profane and righteously indignant. Exxon Mobil is now denying it denied climate change. The corporation’s actions, however, demonstrate something else entirely: An extensive and expensive campaign to deny climate science, deceive the American people about the health and environmental ruin caused by global warming, and stop action by governments to address Earth’s rapidly accelerating climate crisis..."