48 F. average high on March 28.
41 F. high on March 28, 2015.
March 29, 1986: Record warmth occurs with July-like temperatures. A monthly record high of 83 occurs at the Twin Cities.
The Case of the Disappearing Arctic Cold Front
March Madness is an apt metaphor for our increasingly goofy weather. By the way, how did you do with your brackets this year?
(insert sound of crickets here)
Welcome to the sobering, humbling world of predicting the future. You can analyze statistics until you're blue in the face, but predicting injuries, which players will rise to the occasion when the pressure is on? Good luck. In spite of data, analytics and models there are still unknown unknowns - things beyond our capacity to predict in advance.
The last 12 months have been the warmest in Minnesota state history, by a considerable margin. A jolt of El Nino and sustained jaw-dropping warmth in the arctic - whatever the cause even the cold fronts have lost much of their oomph.
The much-advertised arctic front next weekend? Never mind. Every new computer run pushes the coldest air farther north and east. We'll see a glancing blow of chilly air, but I can live with low 40s.
In the meantime we hit 60F today. Showers arrive tonight, spiked with thunder Wednesday before we dry out and cool off Thursday. You may even need a jacket by late week, with temperatures a few degrees below normal.
March is 9F warmer than average, to date.
"Mar-pril"?
Largest Wildfire in State History Ravages Kansas. Here's an excerpt of an update at ThinkProgress: "...Still Republican Gov. Sam Brownback signed a State of Disaster Emergency declaration for at least five Kansas counties. Brownback said Thursday that the fire was largely contained in Kansas except in Barber County, southwest of Wichita, the state’s largest city. “Things really appear to be going pretty well so far today,” he told the Associated Press. The Barber County fire is about 31 percent contained, according to authorities. Meanwhile, smaller fires were reported in Clark, Meade, Harvey and Reno counties, The Wichita Eagle reported Saturday. Kansas has been suffering from abnormal weather in recent years. And while some recent reports note that Kansas won’t be as affected by climate change as other states, recent temperatures have been unusually warm, making the region suceptible to wildfires..."
Vitamin D and Depression: Where Is All The Sunshine? Here's a relatively recent study into vitamin D deficiencies and a potential link to depression; hardly a surprise to anyone suffering from SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder). Here's an excerpt of a paper at The National Center for Biotechnology Information: "...Assessment of vitamin D status will need consideration of other factors, such as light therapy and sun exposure. Exposure to sunlight accounts for over 90% of the vitamin D requirement for most individuals (Holick, 2004). Amount of exposure to ultraviolet B radiation is affected by latitude, season, and time of the day. It has been reported that sun exposure is greatest in spring to early fall and during sunlight hours (Holick, 2004). Although places closer to the equator have greater sun exposure (Hawaii, Arizona, Florida), recently it has been reported that in even in these areas vitamin D insufficiency persists (Binkley et al., 2007; Jacobs et al., 2008; Levis et al., 2005). Since it is possible that persons who are outdoors may be more physically active, it is important to consider whether sunshine alone or in combination with physical activity is related to improved mood...."
Disaster-Ready. FEMA has a new app that seems like a good addition to your smartphone - like insurance you don't need it until you need it. You can load a few different locations and have all the information you need at your fingertips, even if the power goes out. The old Boy Scout motto comes to mind. Be Prepared.
Graphic credit above: "This graph shows how much wind, solar and natural gas electric power generating capacity was built in 2015 compared to the previous year." Credit: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Image credit above: "
Image credit: EIA and CNN.
Howard's Daily: Finding Infrastructure in the Stimulus Plan. Huffington Post Politics had an article with some stats that made me do a double-take; here's a link and excerpt: "...Probably
the wisest investment is in rebuilding America’s decaying
infrastructure. This was the focus of the president’s push for the
stimulus back in 2009, and also the headliner in the report issued
yesterday: The stimulus “initiated more than 15,000 transportation
projects, which will improve nearly 42,000 miles of road, mend or
replace over 2,700 bridges, and provide funds for over 12,220 transit
vehicles,” plus improving 6,000 miles of rail. These all sound like good
investments to me, but I was curious how much of the stimulus plan went
to these transportation infrastructure projects. Toward the back of the
report (Table 8 on p. 34) there’s a chart that gives the number: $30
billion. That’s a little more than 3 percent of the total stimulus plan..." (Image: NASA)
TODAY: Mild sun, breezy and pleasant much of the day. Winds: S 10-20. High: 61
TUESDAY NIGHT: Showers, slight chance of thunder. Low: 47
WEDNESDAY: Showery rains, wettest day in sight. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 54
THURSDAY: Showers taper, slow PM clearing. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 38. High: 44
FRIDAY: Chilly, few sprinkles or flurries. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 34. High: near 40
SATURDAY: Intervals of sun, not bad. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 29. High: 46
SUNDAY: Overcast, chance of a light mix. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 31. High: 42
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, light jacket weather. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 28. High: 41
Climate Stories...
Photo credit above: Kevin Wolf/AP. Images for the Weather Channel. "Jim Cantore, The Weather Channel on-camera meteorologist and storm tracker, reports on Winter Storm Jonas in Washington, D.C."
New Survey Finds a Growing Climate Consensus Among Meteorologists. Here's a snippet from Dr. John Abraham at The Guardian: "...Another important finding is that most meteorologists feel that some of the change can be averted, based on how we react. Small minorities felt that a large amount of change can be averted or that climate change cannot be averted. These views have changed over the years. For instance, almost 20% of meteorologists say their opinion on climate has changed over the past five years. Of that group, the vast majority are more convinced that the climate is changing and they cite a variety of reasons including new research, seeing first-hand evidence, the consensus amongst climate scientists, or from interactions with climate scientists. A final important result is that only 37% of the AMS respondents consider themselves climate experts..."
Photo credit above: "Cars drive through flooded streets behind a High Water sign in Hammond, Louisiana, USA, 11 March 2016. As climate change leads to more extreme weather, more meteorologists will likely take notice." Photograph: Dan Anderson/EPA.
Graphic above courtesy of The National Snow and Ice Data Center, which has more details on the record winter ice minimum in the arctic.
How To Talk Global Warming in Plain English. Some good advice from ClimateWire and Scientific American; here's an excerpt: "...It’s time, many of its past authors say, to consider shifting the assessment away from being a document that tells people what scientists do and do not know about climate change and its risks, and toward something more interactive. Something, many scientists said last week, that explicitly lays out how much time people have to plan, prepare and even pay for the inevitable adaptation. “We could make the goal that it should change the public discourse,” said Susanne Moser, a California-based scientist who worked on the coastal chapter of the last assessment and who studies ways of helping people understand the challenges and risks of climate change. “Do not tell me just how high the sea-level rise is going to get. Tell me how much time I have to solve a very tough problem...”
Primary Debate Scorecard: Climate Change Through 20 Presidential Debates. Future generations may scratch their heads in wonder. Here's an excerpt at Media Matters: "With 20
presidential primary debates now completed, debate moderators have only
asked 22 questions about climate change, which is just 1.5 percent of
the 1,477 questions posed. In addition, the moderators were more than
twice as likely to ask a climate question to a Democratic candidate than
to a Republican candidate, and they have not asked a single climate
question to Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, the two front-runners for the GOP
presidential nomination. Nearly one-third of the climate questions were
asked in the two most recent debates in Miami, following a bipartisan
group of 21 Florida mayors urging the networks to address the issue in
those debates. Just 1.5 percent Of Presidential Debate Questions were
about climate change.."
Overlooked Tool to Fight Climate Change: A Tweak in Fuel Standards. The New York Times has an intriguing story on yet another, potentially more effective way to lower greenhouse gas emissions; here's a clip: "...CAFE
standards were last updated in 2011 and are now up for review by the
E.P.A. These standards have grown more stringent over time but are still
lax compared with those of other nations. America’s vehicles get, on
average, 21.6 miles per gallon; in Britain, where fuel taxes are also
much higher, vehicles average 35.6. Besides their relative laxity, CAFE
standards have loopholes
— for example, based on vehicle size — that limit their effectiveness
at increasing fuel efficiency and reducing emissions. Such loopholes are
made worse by the decline in gasoline prices that is leading to greater
purchases of trucks and S.U.V.s, instead of more efficient cars. The
result is that some observers say that we need to think “outside the box” during this CAFE review period..."
Climate Change: An Opportunity for American Ingenuity. I couldn't agree more with the sentiments expressed in this Op-Ed at TahoeDailyTribune.com: "...He
shakes his head, saying, “There are daily examples of new technologies,
advanced by regular people, that could mitigate our (climate) impact.
It is all very exciting. Creating solutions is far better than getting
stuck somewhere in the seven stages of grief. “Doing what we can and in
our own way as our talents dictate is important and transformative. It
has to be. Our climate is unquestionably changing, and whether or not we
precipitated that, is arguably a moot point. Rather, it is our duty and
privilege as stewards of the Earth to protect it as best we can.” John
has the imagination and confidence to seize opportunity. He’s building a
future where our power sources don’t pollute, when they are selected as
appropriate for specific locations and are essentially free after
installation. No more cancer-causing smog. No more wasting time at the
gas pump..."
Photo credit above: John Roskey.
The Wall Street Journal, Climate Change Denial and the Galileo Gambit. Climate Scientist Michael Mann has an Op-Ed at Huffington Post; here's a clip: "...So
let’s be clear about the facts: Galileo had the courage to speak truth
to the powerful interests of his day in the Roman Catholic Church, just
as two generations of scientists have tried to speak truth about climate
change to executives and lobbyists in the fossil fuel industry. The
Catholic Church declared Galileo a heretic and placed him under house
arrest. Oil industry lobbyists don’t have that kind of power,
thankfully, so they merely suppressed internal climate research and
started funding groups like CEI to publicly attack independent climate
researchers, instead. If he were alive today, Galileo would be appalled
to witness industry shills attempt to wrap themselves in his legacy. He
would not be on the side of powerful fossil fuel interests who fund
attacks on scientific research; perhaps this time, ironically, he would
be on the side of his Pope
and the scientists whose council he regularly seeks, who respect facts
and evidence and recognize the reality we live in for what it is..."
Image credit: Deviant Art.
File image above: NASA.
Carbon Emissions Highest in 66 Million Years, Since Dinosaur Age. Here's the lead to a story at Reuters: "The rate of carbon emissions is higher than at any time in fossil records stretching back 66 million years to the age of the dinosaurs, according to a study on Monday that sounds an alarm about risks to nature from man-made global warming. Scientists wrote that the pace of emissions even eclipses the onset of the biggest-known natural surge in fossil records, 56 million years ago, that was perhaps driven by a release of frozen stores of greenhouse gases beneath the seabed..."
Photo credit above: "A chimney is seen in front of residential buildings during a polluted day in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China, January 21, 2016." Reuters/Stringer.
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