46 F. average high on March 25.
38 F. high on March 25, 2015.
0" snow on the ground at MSP International Airport.
March 26, 2012: This is the record early ice-out date on Mille Lacs Lake.
March 26, 2007: Temperature records are shattered across much of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. The following records were set: 69 at Alexandria, 75 at Mankato, 77 at Little Falls, 79 at St. Cloud, 81 at Minneapolis-St. Paul and Eau Claire, 82 at Redwood Falls, and 83 at Springfield.
Spring Has Sprung, But Don't Pack Away the (Heavy) Jackets
I forgot how much I missed the sound of chirping birds, a gentle rain pattering on the roof, kids laughing down the street. Spring is in the air, but it appears Old Man Winter won't go without a scuffle; one last polar punch is a week away.
According to climate guru Mark Seeley March is the 6th warmest since 1895. He writes: "Even more remarkable is the departure in temperature for the past 12 months, going back to April of 2015. The past 12 months have been the warmest in state history, and by a considerable margin."
Your daffodils are happy about today's rain: .25 to .50 inches may fall. Skies clear on Easter Sunday and 50s return early next week, even a shot at 60F and T-storms late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Models bring a shot of truly Siberian air into Minnesota next weekend; a string of days in the 20s and 30s with a formidable wind chill. The first week of April kicks off on a blustery, November-like note.
The sun angle is too high in the sky for it to stay Nanook for long. By the second week of April a zonal, west-to-east wind flow tempts the mercury into the 50s.
Map credit above: WeatherBell. Don't panic (much). It won't be -35F; temperature anomalies are forecast to be 35 degrees colder than average next Sunday, April 3, meaning single digits and teens in the morning; highs probably holding in the 20s. Above zero. We can handle that.
Map credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.
Image credit above: "Projections of various forecast models for the evolution of SSTs in the Niño3.4 region over the next few months. These forecasts were compiled and released in mid-March. El Niño is in place when SSTs are at least 0.5°C above average for five overlapping three-month periods. La Niña is defined the same way, except that SSTs are below rather than above average. The bottom axis shows abbreviations for three-month intervals (e.g., JJA is June-July-August)." Image credit: International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
Scientists Crown the Lightning Capital of the World. And here I thought it was Africa's Congo - here's an excerpt from CityLab: "Astraphobes who dive under their beds at the first rumblings of a storm should stay away from Venezuela’s Lake Maracaibo, as it’s just been verified as the most lightning-cursed place on the planet. Researchers from Brazil’s Universidade de São Paulo, NASA, and elsewhere poured through 16 years of space observations to give this honorific to what some call South America’s biggest lake (technically, it’s more of a bay or lagoon). Thunderstorms occur an average of 297 nights a year, triggered by a “deep nocturnal convection driven by locally forced convergent flow,” according to a study in this month’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society..."
Photo credit above: "Lightning crackles over Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela in this long-exposure shot from 2014." (Jorge Silva/Reuters).
EASTER SUNDAY: Partly sunny, pleasant Easter. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 48
MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, April-like. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 35. High: 57
TUESDAY: Balmy for March, late T-storms? Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 42. High: near 60
WEDNESDAY: Heavier rain possible. Mixed rain/snow Wednesday night? Winds: S 15-30. Wake-up: 48. High: 56
THURSDAY: Wet snow tapers, slow clearing. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 43
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, chilly again. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 32. High: 42
Carbon Emissions Highest in 66 Million Years, Since Dinosaur Age. Here's the lead to a story at Reuters: "The rate of carbon emissions is higher than at any time in fossil records stretching back 66 million years to the age of the dinosaurs, according to a study on Monday that sounds an alarm about risks to nature from man-made global warming. Scientists wrote that the pace of emissions even eclipses the onset of the biggest-known natural surge in fossil records, 56 million years ago, that was perhaps driven by a release of frozen stores of greenhouse gases beneath the seabed..."
Photo credit above: "A chimney is seen in front of residential buildings during a polluted day in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China, January 21, 2016." Reuters/Stringer.
Meteorologists Overwhelmingly Conclude Climate Change is Real and Human-Caused. Here's an excerpt from Jason Samenow at Capital Weather Gang: "...Seventeen percent of respondents to the survey said their views about climate change had changed over the past five years and, of those, most (87 percent) said they are more convinced than ever that human-caused changes are happening. They were most persuaded by new peer-reviewed studies, the growing scientific consensus on climate change, and evidence of climate change where they live. “[I]t does appear that more meteorologists are now more convinced that human-caused climate change is happening,” said Ed Maibach, lead author of the survey findings and director of George Mason’s Center for Climate Change Communication..."
Map credit above: "
Image credit: " Emily Michot.
“You can’t be on the ground in Asia, Africa, or the Middle East and not see what’s happening,” said Christine Parthemore, a former Pentagon official who now serves as the executive director of the Center for Climate & Security, a think tank.
“I think that is why we’ve seen so many defense, intelligence, and diplomatic leaders start growing concerned about the security implications of climate change far earlier than our political leaders, academic researchers, or the general public,” she said..."
Spike in Global Temperature Fuels Climate Change Fears. According to climate scientist Michael Mann about 50% of the recent (historic) warming is coming from greenhouse gases, 25% from El Nino and another 25% from natural cycles and circulations. El Nino is winding down, but we continue to track unusual warmth. Here's an excerpt at The Sydney Morning Herald: "...Complacency should be avoided, therefore, when the mercury's record run inevitably ends in coming months as the El Nino unwinds. "It's important to take this hot spike as a reminder that this is a really urgent problem" said Professor Rahmstorf, who until last week was also a visiting professorial fellow at the University of NSW. "We are running out of time to avoid a 2-degree world." The UK Met Office estimated last year we are roughly half way there, based on the estimated average of the 1850-1900 period..."
Image credit above: "Each of the past 10 months has been a record for global surface temperatures, a US agency says." Photo: Planetary Visions Ltd.
Photo credit above: "A shoreline at Plum Island, a barrier island in Massachusetts." Credit: Wesley Fryer/Flickr.
Winter Precipitation: More Rain, Less Snow. Climate Central takes a look a larger trends - here's an excerpt: "...Even in a warming world, snow will fall. However, the amount of snow and when it falls will likely change as greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere. We examined cold season precipitation at stations across the country, specifically looking at how much snow is falling compared to rain. Our analysis is consistent with earlier EPA findings. The Northwest and the Upper Midwest are the climate regions seeing the largest decreases in precipitation falling as snow over the past 66 years..."
James Hansen's Apocalyptic Sea Level Study Lands to Mixed Reviews. Climate Home has the update.