52 F. average high on April 3.
52 F. high on April 3, 2015.
April 5, 1999: Heavy snow falls over the Arrowhead, with 11 inches at Two Harbors.
April 5, 1929: A tornado cuts a path from Lake Minnetonka through North Minneapolis and leaves six dead.
Severe Weather Awareness In Your Vehicle
The average lead time for tornadoes has risen from 4 minutes to 13 minutes in the last 30 years. It's getting harder, with a straight face, to say "there was no warning!" But challenges remain.
A December 26, 2015 EF-4 tornado in Garland, Texas, near Dallas, claimed 9 lives; many swept off freeways as a tornado churned through the suburbs after dark. Impossible to see, illuminated by flashes of lightning, it represents a worst-case scenario. How do you adequately warn people in their cars? New digital billboards provide some level of warning. Another solution may be GPS-specific alerts on smartphones. Situational awareness is critical - knowing when there's a tornado watch in the area.
The average lead time for tornadoes has risen from 4 minutes to 13 minutes in the last 30 years. It's getting harder, with a straight face, to say "there was no warning!" But challenges remain.
A December 26, 2015 EF-4 tornado in Garland, Texas, near Dallas, claimed 9 lives; many swept off freeways as a tornado churned through the suburbs after dark. Impossible to see, illuminated by flashes of lightning, it represents a worst-case scenario. How do you adequately warn people in their cars? New digital billboards provide some level of warning. Another solution may be GPS-specific alerts on smartphones. Situational awareness is critical - knowing when there's a tornado watch in the area.
The
atmosphere overhead will be too cool for anything severe into most of
next week. The next storm pushes showers into town today and Wednesday; up north it may be cold enough for a couple inches of slush north of Duluth.
Spring stages a valiant comeback next weekend (50s likely - showers arrive on Sunday). Models suggest more sustained warmth by the 3rd week of April.
Yes, spring is fickle at this latitude.
* Garland, Texas tornado aftermath photo above courtesy of breakingnews.com.
Man Recalls Terrifying Tornado That Took His Wife's Life.
This is the most terrifying and disturbing video I've ever seen of a
direct hit from an (EF-4) tornado in Fairdale, Illinois on April 9,
2015. Here's an excerpt from ABC News: "Cell
phone video captured a terrifying tornado that swept through an elderly
man's home last year, killing his beloved wife of nearly 25 years. On
April 9, 2015, Clem Schultz was at his home in Fairdale,
Illinois, with his wife, Geraldine, known as Geri. "We just finished
supper," Schultz, 85, told ABC News. "My wife called me in the kitchen.
She said, 'Look out the window.' And sure enough I looked out -- we see
this big, ugly tornado coming." "It looked like it was going to miss
us," he said. Geri stayed in the kitchen while he went upstairs to get
some lanterns. As the loud tornado loomed, Schultz decided to start
recording cell phone video..." (more details on this wedge tornado from the Chicago National Weather Service).
Talking About The Weather - and 2016 Outlook.
I'm looking forward to chatting up the weather with Vineeta Sawkar at
The Star Tribune in downtown Minneapolis on April 13. Will El Nino
flip-flop into a La Nina pattern? What are the implications for spring
severe weather and possible drought later this year? This is Vineeta's
final appearance at The Star Tribune. I hope you can come out, wish her
well (and win a new umbrella?) What a deal. More details on the April 13
event here.
A Chilly Week.
Highs hold in the 40s most of this week, bottoming out Saturday morning
in the 20s before recovering next weekend. Payback for 9F warmer than
average last month. Source: Aeris Enterprise.
Sloppy Into Thursday.
Showery rains are likely today into Thursday; the 00z NAM model
predicting .31" of (liquid) precipitation in the metro by Thursday as a
series of weak clippers push across Minnesota.
Marching Backwards. Internal models sent out analert for 1.5" of slushy snow at Nisswa by Thursday evening at 6 pm.
Slush Potential Up North.
12 KM NAM guidance continues to hint at plowable 4-6" amounts for
portions of the North Shore, maybe 2-3" of slush on lawns and fields in
the Duluth area; even a coating for some metro lawns by Thursday night.
Source: Aeris Weather.
Will La Nina Affect the 2016 Presidential Election?
It's a generalization, but La Nina cool phases in the Pacific tend to
favor drought and more numerous hurricanes. Dr. Mashall Shepherd takes a
look at Forbes; here's an excerpt: "...Given
the timing of a possible La Niña onset, it is not unreasonable to ask
the question, “Could it affect the upcoming U.S. Presidential election
in November?” This question is not as far fetched as you may think.
Published research from the University of Georgia
found that Hurricane Sandy may have affected voter turnout in some
Northeast states. Previous studies have also indicated that extreme
temperatures, rainfall or snowfall can suppress turnout among sporadic
or less-intense voters, which often tend to vote Democrat. While some studies suggest adverse weather conditions favor Republicans, other studies have also contradicted this premise. It is clear that weather does have some effect..."
More Frequent Extreme Precipitation Ahead for Western North America.
Expect "atmospheric rivers" to enter the weather lexicon the way "polar
vortex" did 2 years ago - here's the intro to a story at phys.org: "It
may sound like a routine forecast, but it's not. Results from a careful
modeling study conducted by researchers at Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory found that western North America and Canada can expect a 28
percent increase in the number of extreme precipitation days, thanks to
global climate warming. In addition, wintertime storm systems that often
carry those extreme rainy days will hit the coast 35 percent more often
in the future. The primary mechanism for these numbers is atmospheric
rivers, narrow bands of tropical moisture streaming each winter season
toward the U.S. west coast...."
Image credit above: "Pictured
is the annual number of atmospheric river-related, extreme
precipitation days overlaid a modeling output of atmospheric rivers. The
shading indicates +/- one standard deviation of the natural
variability. The black and blue lines mark observations."
ExxonMobil Is Increasingly Being Singled Out for Its Role in Climate Change Deceit. Here's the intro to an update at VICE News: "The US oil major ExxonMobil once faced just two state attorneys general who were investigating whether or not the company lied about climate change. But, the number of top prosecutors questioning the company grew to seventeen this week, just as another major philanthropic organization said it would divest from ExxonMobil. The New York Attorney General's office launched in November an investigation into whether ExxonMobil is guilty of making false or misleading statements to investors about climate change and its potential impact on the company's bottomline..."
Photo credit above: Gene J. Puskar/AP.
Tesla Model 3 Is Already World's Most Popular Electric Car. Newsweek has the latest numbers; here's an excerpt: "Tesla founder Elon Musk has revealed the firm’s much-anticipated Model 3 electric car has received 276,000 pre-orders worth almost $10 billion in just two days. At $35,000, the Model 3 is Tesla’s first vehicle to eschew a high-end price tag and aim squarely at mass-market adoption. The similarly priced Nissan Leaf electric car has sold more than any other pure-electric vehicle, passing the 200,000 unit milestone in December 2015..."
The Electric Car Revolution Is Now Scheduled for 2022. Six years away? Our grandkids won't think twice about driving EV. Gas-powered vehicles that are more expensive to produce and maintain may become the rough equivalent of rotary phones. Here's the intro to a story at WIRED.com: "The long-awaited, oft-delayed electric car revolution is now scheduled for 2022. That’s according to a report from research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which posits that in just six years, the biggest obstacle to the sale of EVs—they cost too much—will be obliterated and cars that run on electricity will cost less than those that run on dead dinosaurs. “By 2022,” the report says, “the unsubsidized total cost of ownership of BEVs [battery electric vehicles] will fall below that of an internal combustion engine vehicle..."
File photo credit: Carolyn Kaster, AP.
Image credit above: "Musk
stands in front of a chart showing the global atmospheric carbon
dioxide levels (in ppm) over the past few hundred thousand years. Note
the recent trend." Tesla, from the video.
Image credit above: "A view of the neighborhood, Aliso Canyon and the methane wells (on the ridge)." Credit Ewan Telford for The New York Times.
TODAY: Light mix changes to showers - fairly unpleasant. Winds: SE 15-25. High: 47
TUESDAY NIGHT: More rain showers. Low: 37
WEDNESDAY: Lingering showers, still raw. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 46
THURSDAY: What spring? Flurries & sprinkles. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 34. High: 43
FRIDAY: Jacket-worthy, few flakes in the air. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 29. High: near 40
SATURDAY: Sunnier, drier day of the weekend. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 30. High: 52
SUNDAY: Growing chance of rain showers. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 44. High: 55
MONDAY: Partial clearing, a bit cooler. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 37. High: 47
Climate Stories....
Moral Solutions in a Changing Climate with Meteorologist Paul Douglas. I'm
looking forward to this evening's presentation at St. Andrew's Lutheran
Church in Mahtomedia. Here's an excerpt of a preview from The Stillwater Gazette: "...In
his presentation, Douglas will also make the case that it’s imperative
to act. “This is a moral issue,” he said. “Because the countries least
responsible will bear the brunt of rising seas, spreading drought and
climate refugees. Because someday your grand kids will ask, ‘What did
you know … when … and what did you do to help?’” Citing Luke 16:2,
Douglas asserts that future generations will hold those alive today
responsible for today’s decisions, and he says people must act now to
reduce reliance on carbon-based fuels and invest in carbon-clean
alternatives..."
Climate Catastrophe, Coming Even Sooner? I
realize (many) people shut down and tune out when they hear a story
like this. "There's nothing we can do - so why do anything?" The reality
is that there may still be time to avoid a worst-case scenario of
Antarctic and Greenland ice melt, but the clock is ticking, and has been
for the last few hundred years as greenhouse gases have ramped up in
the atmosphere. Here's an excerpt of an Elizabeth Kolbert story at The New Yorker: "...The
latest example comes from a study published Wednesday, in the journal
Nature. “Antarctic Model Raises Prospect of Unstoppable Ice Collapse,”
ran the headline in the news story
that accompanied it. The new paper, coauthored by Rob DeConto, of the
University of Massachusetts at Amherst, and David Pollard, of
Pennsylvania State University, arose out of frustration. The two
researchers had spent years working on a computer model that did not
seem to capture rises in sea level that were already known to have taken
place. Before the last ice age, about a hundred and twenty thousand
years ago, for instance, sea levels were at least twenty feet higher
than they are now. But DeConto and Pollard found that unless they
programmed the model with temperatures that were unrealistically high
for that period it could not account for such levels..."
Photo credit above: "New
research indicates that, due to global warming, the West Antarctic Ice
Sheet (WAIS) may be headed for an unavoidable and disastrous collapse,
triggering a rapid rise in sea levels." Credit Photograph by Natacha Pisarenko/AP.
Image credit above: "The economic impact of climate change could play havoc with the world economy, according to an LSE study." Photograph: Carlo Allegri/Reuters
How To Fight Climate Change? Put a Price on Pollution.
We've done it before - it works. British Columbia has had a
revenue-neutral tax on carbon since 2008 and the Canadian province is
booming, economically. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at The Star Tribune: "...The
risks of climate change may be uncertain, but actuaries price risk for
insurance companies — an approach that could be adopted for gauging the
cost-benefit calculation on limiting CO2 emissions. “Cap and trade” is
an antipollution strategy that already has worked. In the days when
Congress actually passed legislation, a law set limits on sulfur dioxide
emissions that created the bane of “acid rain” in the 1970s. Result: A
cap-and-trade program that reduced that pollutant by 85 percent. It cost
about $3 billion but yielded benefits of $167 billion to $427 billion —
effectively relegating “acid rain” to the dustbin of history.
Economists making the dollars-and-cents case for action on climate
change already often find themselves outside their comfort zone..."
Graphic credit: Star Tribune.
Northern Hemisphere Snowcover is Decreasing. No, you're not imagining it. Here's an excerpt from a post at WXshift: "Since
satellites started collecting data in the early 1970s, there has been a
trend toward less summer snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. While
most people might think of the summer as beach time, snow still covers a
wide swath of land in the northern stretches of the globe. But over the
past 50 years, that snow cover has been receding from a peak of 10.28
million square miles set in 1979 to a record low 3.69 million square
miles set in 2013. Spring snow cover is also on the decline and this
reduced snow cover is consistent with rising temperatures driving
increased snowmelt..."
We've Been Getting These Key Details About Greenland's Melting All Wrong. It's not just surface temperature increases and carbon soot accelerating melting of ice; it's also surrounding water. The Washington Post reports; here's an excerpt: "...It’s also believed that warm ocean water can help destabilize glaciers from the bottom up, melting the ice where it’s grounded to the seafloor and eventually causing large chunks to break away. Truffer pointed out that it’s “only in the last 10-plus years that people really started realizing how much of a role melting by ocean water played.” So scientists are still getting a handle on the kinds of information we need to really understand the process. And one under-studied part of the picture is underwater topography..."
Even in a Warming World, It Will Still Snow Somewhere.
God help us if it stops snowing during the winter, but snowfall
patterns are becoming more sparse and erratic - continuous snow on the
ground from October to March is no longer a given, even in Minnesota.
Here's an excerpt from The New York Times: "...Adam H. Sobel, a climate scientist at Columbia University who wrote a recent book on Hurricane Sandy
and extreme weather, reminds people to make sure to differentiate
between weather and climate. If you really want to know what is going on
with climate change, he said, look at the long-term averages over large
areas. Do not be fooled by short-term weather fluctuations, or by
distractions like snowballs..."
Photo credit above: "If
you really want to know what is going on with climate change, climate
scientists urge looking at long-term averages over large areas. A snow
storm on Capitol Hill does not mean climate change is not happening." Credit Drew Angerer for The New York Times.
The Southwest May Have Entered a "Drier Climate State". Here's a good summary of new research findings, courtesy of WXshift: "The Southwest is already the most arid part of the U.S. Now new research indicates it’s becoming even more dry as wet weather patterns, quite literally, dry up. The change could herald a pattern shift and raises the specter of megadrought in the region. “We see a very intense trend in the Southwest,” Andreas Prein, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Corporation for Atmospheric Research, said. “The Southwest might already have drifted into a drier climate state...”
Photo credit above: "The American robin, a familiar species across much of the continental United States, has declined in some southern states, such as Mississippi and Louisiana, but increased in north-central states, such as the Dakotas." (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service).
Climate Model Predicts West Antarctica Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly. In case you missed the Justin Gillis story at The New York Times; here's a clip: "For half a century, climate scientists have seen the West Antarctic
ice sheet, a remnant of the last ice age, as a sword of Damocles
hanging over human civilization. The great ice sheet, larger than
Mexico, is thought to be potentially vulnerable to disintegration from a
relatively small amount of global warming,
and capable of raising the sea level by 12 feet or more should it break
up. But researchers long assumed the worst effects would take hundreds —
if not thousands — of years to occur. Now, new research suggests the
disaster scenario could play out much sooner..."
Photo credit above: "A
view from a NASA airplane of large icebergs that have broken from the
calving side of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica in November 2014. A
disaster scenario of West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration could occur
much sooner than previously thought, new research suggests." Credit Jim Yungel/NASA.
Map credit above: "Climate warming in U.S. from 1991-2012 compared to 1901-1960 average." (National Climate Assessment, 2014).
Its Hazy, But China's Carbon Emissions May Have Peaked. Here's a clip from a story at The New York Times: "...Now,
some researchers examining recent data from the slowing Chinese economy
are asking whether emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse
gas, are already falling in China — more than a decade earlier than
expected. If so, there could be important consequences. China’s success
could energize worldwide efforts to limit global warming
to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or two degrees Celsius, above preindustrial
levels, considered a difficult mission but critical for forestalling
catastrophic environmental changes..."
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