60 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities yesterday.
64 F. average high for KMSP on April 29.
68 F. high on April 29, 2015.
April 30, 2004:
After a high temperature of 91 on the previous day in the Twin Cities,
the mercury tumbles to 47 degrees by the morning. St. Cloud sheds 50
degrees over 12 hours.
April 30, 1967: Tornadoes hit southern Minnesota. Some of the towns affected were Albert Lea, Waseca, Wells, and Owatonna.
Counting Up Our Atmospheric BlessingsYou
may want to call a friend in Denver to chat about the weather. The Mile
High City may see half a foot of slush today and tonight. Today's
weather blog includes a story of early warmth sparking an early outbreak
of scorpions in Arizona. Remind me not to complain about last week's
cool temperatures.
After a fairly tame, Peoria winter, warmth has put spring planting on fast forward. According to Mark Seeley "Minnesota
farmers accomplished the earliest-ever planting of sugar beets, and a
very early planting of corn, with over half of the 7 million acre crop
planted by the last week of April." We have very little to complain
about in the weather department.
But give it time.
The sun
gets tangled up in high clouds today; the next southern storm pushing
rain into far southern Minnesota by evening. I see a dry streak for most
of the state today into
next Saturday, when temperatures may approach 80F. Expect 60s and a few 70s next week with a shower risk
on Wednesday. And it's still too cool and dry for anything severe.
Enjoy a serene weather honeymoon; some of the best weather of 2016 is on the way.
70s by Tuesday.
Another wave of spring fever is imminent, I fear. Model guidance shows a
steady warming trend into the middle of next week; most simulations
pulling temperatures into the 70s by Tuesday. Graphic: Aeris Enterprise.
80s Second Week of May?
A true taste of summer may be 1-2 weeks away. NOAA's GFS model predicts
highs consistently in the 8s between May 10 and May 14. Circle your
calendars.
Significant Rains (and Storms) Stay South of Minnesota.
10-day accumulated rainfall guidance (GFS) shows heavy rains over the
Mississippi Valley and southern Plains, but significant rain may not
come much closer than Iowa. Animation: AerisWeather.
Meteorological Spring Precipitation Departures from Average.
No sign of emerging drought patterns, at least not yet. Our soaking
earlier in the week came at a good time. Since March 1 rainfall is a
little above average in the MSP metro, significantly wetter closer to
Duluth.
Warm Signal Continues.
El Nino is weakening rapidly, but a warm signal remains. Since March 1
temperatures are about 4F warmer than average in the Twin Cities,
factoring in an abnormally mild March. April is about 1F warmer than
average for KMSP, to date.
Supersized Growing Season for Minnesota Farmers. Here are a couple of timely, relevant nuggets in this week's installment of Mark Seeley's
Minnesota WeatherTalk: "...
A
brief tornado touchdown occurred in Faribault County on April 24th near
Bricelyn with no reported damage. As a result of no snow cover, absence
of soil frost, and warm temperatures during mid-month Minnesota farmers
accomplished earliest-ever planting of sugar beets, and a very early
planting of corn, with over half of the 7 million acre crop planted by
the last week of April..."
IRI ENSO Forecast.
Models show a rapid transition from El Nino warm phase to a (weak) La
Nina cooling phase in the Pacific in the months to come. Here's an
excerpt of an explanation at the
International Research Institute for Climate and Society: "...
The
first plot (above) shows the ensemble mean predictions of each of the
individual models, and also the average of the individual model
predictions (the NMME). Here, the NMME average is not weighted by the
number of ensemble members in the individual models. This plot is
intended to provide some idea of the disagreement among the individual
models. Corrections for systematic biases are not done. Predictions of
ENSO are probabilistic. The ensemble mean prediction it is only a best
single guess. On either side of that prediction, there is a substantial
uncertainty distribution, or error tolerance..."
January 22-23, 2016 Blizzard Now Thought To Be Biggest Snowfall on Record for New York City. Nearly 18" fell in Washington D.C. - for NYC it was a legitimate record-setter. Here's an excerpt of a review from
NOAA: "...
The
preliminary Central Park measurement will be adjusted upward to 27.5
inches, which will become an all-time snowfall record for New York City
when certified by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
A communication error between the weather forecast office in Upton, New
York, and the Central Park Conservancy, which volunteers to take
official snow measurements in Central Park, led to an inaccurate
preliminary total of 26.8 inches. The snow team found the mistake when
reviewing the Conservancy’s logbook..."
2016 Blizzard Was NYC's Biggest Snowstorm On Record, NOAA Report Finds.
Summer rainfall intensity rates are increasing - so are winter snowfall
amounts, especially along the East Coast. Here's more perspective on
the new record from
NBC in New York: "...
Snow
measurements are extremely difficult to take because precipitation is
inherently variable, a problem compounded by strong winds and compaction
during a long duration event," National Weather Service Director Louis
Uccellini, said in a statement. "Still, it's important that we
scrutinize questionable measurements and reject those that scientists
deem invalid to ensure the public's continued confidence in the U.S.
climate record." NOAA said the discrepancy in New York City stemmed from
a miscommunication between the weather service's New York forecast
office and the Central Park Conservancy, which correctly measured the
snowfall..."
Image credit of road conditions from January 28, 2016: Aeris Enterprise.
Nothing to Sneeze At: More CO2 = More Pollen. Here's an excerpt of a story at
Climate Central: "...
In a previous report,
we illustrated how ragweed pollen production increases with CO2 levels.
New research continues to shed light on the relationship between pollen
and climate change. While ragweed studies give one example of how
pollen is impacted by higher levels of CO2, other plants have also been
subsequently examined. In this report, we highlight a new study that
looks at Timothy Grass pollen, a major cause of allergies during the
early summer. Researchers investigated the amount of pollen produced at
CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm, which is near current levels, and 800
ppm, which we would pass before the end of the century if current
emissions trends continue. Not surprisingly, the grass produced about
twice as much pollen at 800 ppm..."
Six Maps That Will Make You Rethink The World.
I love maps, always have, but there are new maps that put challenges
and opportunities into new perspective. Here's an excerpt of a
fascinating story at
The Washington Post: "...
The
world has four significant maritime choke points, three of which are
geopolitically sensitive — the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and the
Strait of Malacca. We have feared for 100 years that there could be an
act of terrorism or war that would block one of these choke points and
disrupt global trade and energy flows. But Arctic shipping is a faster
and better system. Tragic as climate change is, it opens up these new
passageways to Europe, to North America, into the Hudson Bay. So the way
into the heart of North America may eventually be these Arctic shipping
routes..."
Map credit above: "
Parag Khanna, "Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization"
The U.S. Oil and Gas Boom Is Having Global Atmospheric Consequences, Scientists Suggest. Methane is 25-100 times more potent than CO2 in retaining heat in the lower atmosphere. Here's a clip from
The Washington Post: "
Scientists
say they have made a startling discovery about the link between
domestic oil and gas development and the world’s levels of atmospheric methane — a carbon compound that can both damage air quality and contribute to climate change. A new study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has revealed that the Bakken Shale formation, a region of intensely increasing recent oil production centered
in North Dakota and Montana, accounts for about 2 percent of the entire
world’s methane output — and, in fact, may be partly responsible for
reversing a decades-long decline in global methane emissions..." (File photo: Dylan Lovan, AP).
Ford Plans Long-Range Electric Car to Compate With Tesla, GM. Bloomberg reports: "Ford
Motor Co. plans to introduce a long-range electric vehicle to compete
with battery-powered models coming from Tesla Motors Inc. and General
Motors Co. that would go 200 miles or more on a charge. “We want to make
sure that we’re either among the leaders or in a leadership position,”
Chief Executive Officer Mark Fields told analysts and reporters on a
conference call Thursday. “When you look at some of the competitors and
what they’ve announced, clearly, that’s something we’re developing for.”
He didn’t say when Ford would start producing the vehicle..."
Lured By Early Warm Weather, Scorpions Emerge to Swarm Arizona Homes.
The next time a friend or family member living in Arizona gives you a
hard time about our winters (or mosquitoes) just forward this New York Times article along. Here's the intro: "The
scorpions that scurry around this desert region emerged from their
winter slumber early this year. Usually dormant until late March, the
creatures came out in February as temperatures soared, making a month
that is generally pretty pleasant the second-warmest February on record..."
Image credit above: "Hungry
and disoriented because of an unseasonably warm winter, some unwanted
creatures are invading backyards in Arizona. Look out for scorpions." Photo: Caitlin O'Hara for the New York Times.
Lutsen Still Open for Skiing! If you need one more snowy fix you're in luck. Here's an excerpt from
Bring Me The News: "
A brief surge of warm weather in March pretty much ended the ski and snowboard season in Minnesota. Of the 17 hills on the Minnesota Ski Areas Association report,
almost all reported closing dates that month. But one is still chugging
along, and will actually be open this weekend. Lutsen Mountains will
have one chairlift operating, with eight to ten runs available for use,
it announced in a news release Thursday..." (Photo credit: Lutsen).
TODAY: Sun north, showers south of MSP by late in the day. Winds: NE 10-20. High: near 60
SATURDAY NIGHT: Rain over far southern Minnesota tapers. Low: 42
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: NE 10-15. High: 61
MONDAY: Blue sky, light winds. Perfect. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 40. High: 66
TUESDAY: Plenty of sun. Distractingly nice. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 46. High: 72
WEDNESDAY: More clouds, instability shower? Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 49. High: 63
THURSDAY: Sunnier and milder. Clock out early. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 44. High: 70
FRIDAY: As good as it gets. Still sunny. Wake-up: 47. High: 74
Climate Stories...
The Top 10 Reasons to be Hopeful on Climate Change. Thanks to Jeff Masters at
WunderBlog for an uplifting post; here's an excerpt: "...
My favorite talk today: “
Barrier
Busting: Leapfrogging Zombie Science Arguments to Get to Solutions," by
my favorite communications expert, Susan Hassol of climatecommunication.org.
She argued that emphasizing the solutions to climate change rather than
talking about the science, is a better way to communicate to the
public. Talking about the science of climate change often leads to
confusion, due to long-discredited arguments by climate change deniers
that rise from the dead like zombies. But people are very supportive of
actions to take action on climate change, regardless of their views on
the science. For example, 72% of Republicans and 68% of conservative
Republicans support efforts to develop clean energy, even though far
fewer than half of them believe that the climate is warming and humans
are responsible. Susan presented her top list of reasons to be hopeful
about climate change:
10) President Obama has put climate change at the top of his agenda.
9) The Pope has framed climate change as a moral issue.
8)
China has become highly motivated and engaged, and naysayers can no
longer claim that we shouldn’t do anything because China is not..."
Syria and Climate Change: Did The Media Get It Right? Can
you connect the dots with a high degree of confidence? Did the worst
drought in 800 years have a clear climate-related signal, and how did
this fan the flames of civil war? Here's an overview of an in-depth
report from
The Climate and Migration Coalition: "
During
2015 the media started connecting climate change with the conflict in
Syria and subsequent refugee movements across Europe. Many reports were
in direct response to new research making this connection. Other reports
mentioned this research while examining other major events such as the
drownings in the Mediterranean, the refugee camp in Calais and the
terrorist attacks in November 2015. But did those media reports
accurately represent the research they referenced?.."
Climate Change to Widen Range of Disease-Carrying Mosquitoes. Here's the intro of a summary at
Carbon Brief: "
Infectious
diseases, such as dengue and the Zika virus, could spread to new parts
of the world as mosquitoes expand their habitats in a warmer, wetter
world, a new study suggests. By
2061-80, an additional half a billion people could be at risk from
diseases carried by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the study says – and
could even rise to more than five billion under a scenario of high
population growth. There are roughly 3,500 species of mosquito buzzing about on the Earth. One of the most common is the Aedes aegypti..."
Greenland Ice Sheet Melting Has Started Early. Here's a snippet of a report at The Sydney Morning Herald: "...Greenland
is really the big show when it comes to ice melt," said Matt
King, Professor of Polar Geodesy and an ARC Future Fellow at
the University of Tasmania. "It's probably losing as much ice as all
the small glaciers around the world combined, and probably more than
Antarctica. "Greenland is being eaten away from away from above and from
the edges." Arctic air temperatures have risen about two degrees since
the 1960s. Ocean temperatures are also warming, thawing Greenland
glaciers in contact with surrounding seas. Since satellite records date
only from the 1970s, some natural fluctuations may be in play, he said.
Still, Greenland's early April warmth was consistent with other signals
of a warming planet..."
I'm Ready to Evangelize...About Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of a powerful Op-Ed from Jayce Hafner at
Sojourners: "
I'm
a Christian, but I'm not a natural evangelizer. Talking about my faith
has never come easily to me, and I prefer to quietly live my beliefs
rather than speak about them. Even as a legislative advocate for the
Episcopal Church, I am more at ease discussing policy ramifications than
quoting scripture. Still, one urgent policy issue in particular has
forced me to reconsider my distate for religious language and challenged
me to voice my faith. Galvanized by the urgency of this challenge, I'm
ready to evangelize about climate change...."
We're Over Being Bummed About Climate Change and Ready for Solutions. Amen to that. Here's an excerpt of an encouraging blog post at
NASA: "...
Look,
I know it’s really hard to be optimistic when you’re down. So the best
antidote to fight off the climate blues, according to Hassol, is to take
action. “I do more work, give more talks,
work with more scientists, get out there, and give people real hope. I
also balance my reading,” she continued. “For every couple of articles I
read in science journals about the melting poles, the hottest year on
record, the worst fire season on record, the flooding, I try to look at
what’s happening on the solutions side: the growth in solar and wind,
the improvements in the economics of renewable energy, the ambitious
action taking place in cities, states and countries around the world...”
I’m a Christian, but I’m not a natural evangelizer.
Talking
about my faith has never come easily to me, and I prefer to quietly
live my beliefs rather than speak about them. Even as a legislative
advocate for the Episcopal Church, I am more at ease discussing policy
ramifications than quoting scripture.
Still, one urgent policy
issue in particular has forced me to reconsider my distaste for
religious language and challenged me to voice my faith. Galvanized by
the urgency of this challenge, I’m ready to evangelize about climate
change.
- See more at: https://sojo.net/articles/im-ready-evangelize-about-climate-change#sthash.LfP2JBnU.dpuf
How Climate Deniers Try to Sow Confusion. It didn't work with tobacco and smoking - it won't work with climate change. Here's an excerpt from
TIME: "...
It’s
not an easy time to practice climate denialism. When nearly every
sentient scientist on the planet agrees that climate change is a global
threat and 175 countries sign an agreement to curb it, you’re going to feel awfully lonely when the best you’ve got on your side is a U.S. Senator who brought a snowball onto the floor of the upper chamber as proof that the Earth can’t be warming, plus a lot of online
friends with names like @WeaselFeet23 (sorry, Dr. @WeaselFeet23) who
publish their scientific arguments 140 characters at a time...."
Climate Change and the Conservative Republican. Here's a clip from an update at Insurance Journal: "If
you’re a conservative Republican, there’s a decent chance that you
believe in climate change. Compared with two years ago that is. Don’t
tell this to Rush Limbaugh or presidential hopeful Donald Trump.
Although he seems to have warmed a tad to the idea of a changing climate
lately, Trump has been known for poking fun at believers in myriad tweets,
including one in 2012 stating: “The concept of global warming was
created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing
non-competitive.” A poll out this week from the Yale Program and Climate
Change Communication states that conservative Republicans have
experienced the largest shift in climate change believership of any
political group with an increase of 19 percentage points over the past
two years..."
Copenhagen Set To Divest from Fossil Fuels. Here's the intro to a story at
The Guardian: "
Copenhagen’s
mayor has announced plans to divest the city’s 6.9bn kroner (£700m)
investment fund of all holdings in coal, oil and gas. If his proposal is
approved at a finance committee meeting next Tuesday, as expected, the
Danish capital will become the country’s first investment fund to sell
its stocks and bonds in fossil fuels. “Copenhagen is at the forefront of
world cities in the green transition, and we are working hard to become
the world’s first CO2 neutral capital in 2025. Therefore it seems
totally wrong for the municipality to still be investing in oil, coal
and gas..."
Scientists Way of Fort Lauderdale's Proposed Seawall to Combat Sea-Level Rise. How high do you want to make that wall? Here's a clip from
New Times Broward-Palm Beach: "...
So,
earlier this month, city officials introduced a new ordinance that
would require every seawall in the city to be raised at least eight
inches — but no more than 12 inches. This has some sea-level-rise
experts scratching their heads, because raising the walls just inches
will not protect properties for long: By 2045, sea level is anticipated
to rise at least a foot, and as much as two feet by 2060..."
Photo credit above: "
Sea level rise experts think the city's plan to raise seawalls won't be enough." Photo by Dave via
Flickr Creative Commons.
Climate Change Could Threaten Trillions of Dollars of Financial Assets, a New Study Reports. Here's the intro to a story at PRI,
Public Radio International: "
New
research from the London School of Economics estimates that a broad
range of global stocks and other financial assets are overvalued because
investment managers don’t take the risks of climate change into
account. The LSE research estimates financial assets worldwide are
presently overvalued by $2.5 trillion — and, in the worst case, $24
trillion. Massive climate-related writedowns are not far off in the
future, which would mean huge losses for investors who ignore the risks,
says Alex Bowen of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at
LSE and co-author of the new study, published in Nature Climate Change..."
Photo credit above: "
Coastal
real estate in cities like Miami are one type of asset that may be
dangerously overvalued, if climate change proceeds as scientists predict."
Credit: Daniel Chudosov/Flickr.
Half of U.S. Conservatives Say Climate Change is Real. The ship is turning, as the symptoms of a rapidly warming climate become harder to dismiss or deny. Here's a clip from
Bloomberg: "
The
percentage of conservative Republicans who consider global warming a
threat shot up 19 points in two years, to 47 percent, according to
public opinion researchers at Yale University and George Mason
University. Overall, 56 percent of Republicans agree that it’s
happening. Including Democrats and independents, the national average
for the U.S. is 73 percent. The new survey results, “Politics & Global Warming 2016,”
suggest a growing gap between what most registered Republican voters
understand to be true and what the party leadership says it believes,
particularly on the presidential campaign trail this year..."
Politics and Global Warming, Spring 2016. Here's an excerpt from
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication that got my attention:
- An
increasing number of registered voters think global warming is
happening. Three in four (73%, up 7 points since Spring 2014) now think
it is happening. Large majorities of Democrats—liberal (95%) and
moderate/conservative (80%)—think it is happening, as do three in four
Independents (74%, up 15 points since Spring 2014) and the majority of
liberal/moderate Republicans (71%, up 10 points).
- By
contrast, only 47% of conservative Republicans think global warming is
happening. Importantly, however, there has been a large increase in the
number of conservative Republicans who think global warming is
happening. In fact, conservative Republicans have experienced the
largest shift of any group—an increase of 19 percentage points over the
past two years....
Q&A: A Canadian Evangelical Confronts U.S. Climate Politics.
Here is a good summary and terrific interview transcript with one of my
personal heroes, climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe, who recently
visited Minnesota - courtesy of
Midwest Energy News: "...
It
is not politically acceptable to say that climate change is a problem
but we don’t want to do anything about it. But it is politically
acceptable to say, it’s going to cost too much and I care about other
things. It’s acceptable to say the science isn’t settled. It is
definitely acceptable to say an all-powerful sovereign God would never
let this happen. These are very acceptable statements in the United
States in 2016..."
File photo credit: "
Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe speaks at Hardin-Simmons University in Texas in 2012."
Catholic Bishops: "Confronting Climate Change is our Moral Obligation.
As tempting as it is to look away or change the subject, as people of
faith we (all) have a duty to pay attention and be part of the solution.
Here's a snippet from
TheHill: "...
Climate
change threatens all life—and the life cycle of the earth itself.
Climate change attacks the human dignity of those most affected, with
the least fortunate bearing a disproportionate burden from its impacts.
What the scientific consensus tells us, and what real observations and
experiences around the world have shown us, is that humanity’s current
reliance on fossil fuels is altering the atmosphere. Warmer oceans and
higher temperatures are already being connected with increased sea
levels, storm surges, rainfall intensities and droughts, as well as
disruptions in growing seasons and migratory patterns. In Laudato Sí,
Pope Francis highlighted the urgency of our task: “Technology based on
the use of highly polluting fossil fuels – especially coal, but also oil
and, to a lesser degree, gas – needs to be progressively replaced
without delay.” We have a moral obligation to reduce carbon pollution,
to protect people from climate impacts and to safeguard human health..."
The Clean Energy Revolution.
If we jump-start and empower the markets we might just need less
regulation to have the (growing) economy we all want - without the
unpleasant side-effects. Here's a clip from
Foreign Affairs: "...
But without major advances
in clean energy technology, the Paris agreement might lead countries to
offer only modest improvements in their future climate plans. That will
not be enough. Even if they fulfill their existing pledges, the earth
will likely warm by some 2.7 to 3.5 degrees Celsius—risking planetary
catastrophe. And cutting emissions much more is a political nonstarter,
especially in developing countries
such as India, where policymakers must choose between powering economic
growth and phasing out dirty fossil fuels. As long as this tradeoff
persists, diplomats will come to climate conferences with their hands tied..."
Republican Donor Backs Clean Energy Senators with Digital Campaign. Here's an excerpt from
Reuters that left me encouraged: "
A
Republican political donor said on Wednesday he would spend "seven
figures" on a targeted digital campaign backing two senators who support
clean energy policies, which could help tip the balance in their tight
November re-election races. Jay
Faison, a Charlotte, North Carolina-based executive of an audio-vision
equipment company, said he would endorse Republican Senator Rob Portman
of Ohio and Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire for re-election.
Portman is a co-sponsor of a bipartisan energy efficiency bill, while
Ayotte is one of the only Republican supporters of President Barack
Obama's plan to cut carbon emissions..." (File photo: Charlotte Observer).
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