67 F. average high on May 7.
76 F. high on May 7, 2015.
May 8, 1924: A snowstorm brings up to 4 inches to parts of Minnesota. Minneapolis sees a half inch of snow with St. Paul picking up an inch. Up to 50 mph winds accompany the snow.
Cheap Mother's Day Gift: Showers in the 7-Day
"All that I am, or hope to be, I owe to my angel mother" wrote Abraham Lincoln. I miss my late mother - she was a force of nature, a force for good.
Instead of a cheesy Hallmark card I got your mom something better: blue sky, light winds, low 70s - no waves of Kamikaze mosquitoes on Doppler. Today should be the day mom was fantasizing about a few short months ago.
Better yet, a few showers will drift into town this week, providing some welcome moisture. Northern Minnesota is under a Red Flag Warning, meaning a significant fire risk. The Fort McMurray conflagration and evacuation reads like something out of a horror movie - so let's all agree not to complain about a little rain in the forecast this week.
The best chance of welcome puddles comes Monday afternoon into Wednesday. A half inch of rain may fall if we're lucky. Cool, Canadian air leaks southward; we may wake up to upper 30s in the metro by Saturday morning - highs hold in the 50s next weekend.
Not to worry: GFS guidance pulls 70s and a few 80s back into town in 2 weeks.
It's May, as in it MAY be nice outside.
Smoky and Smoggy.
It isn't often we have very poor air quality in Minnesota (no heavy
industry immediately upwind) but smoke from Canadian blazes dropped air
quality to very unhealthy levels for a time Saturday morning.
Welcome Surge of Rain.
Not today - the sun will be out with low 70s by late afternoon (and
less wind than yesterday). 4 KM NAM guidance shows moisture pushing
north Monday afternoon and evening. Accumulated precipitation between
now and 1 am Tuesday courtesy of NOAA and AerisWeather.
Wettest Day: Tuesday.
Models are fairly consistent pulling the heaviest showers and possible
T-showers Tuesday. I doubt we'll pick up 1.5" (like the GFS is
predicting) but a half inch of rain would be most welcome right about
now. Rainfall forecast: NOAA and Aeris Enterprise.
Not Convinced.
I hope we pick up an inch of rain, like some models are hinting at by
5 pm Tuesday. My hunch is that one again the heaviest rains will track
south of Minnesota this week.
No Metro Frost - But Keep a Light Jacket Handy.
After low to mid 70s today the forecast calls for a cooling trend; 50s
for highs by the weekend - GFS guidance hinting at upper 30s for wake-up
temperatures 1 week from today. Two steps forward - one step back.
NASA map above: temperature anomalies (C) between April 26 and May 3.
This Week's Wild Weather, Brought To You By The Letter 'Omega'. Are blocking patterns becominig more frequent? For the better part of 10-15 years I've been sharing my personal (anecdotal) views that weather may be slowing down, more prone to stalling for extended periods of time, intensifying droughts and floods. Here's an excerpt from WXshift: "...This is the reason the heat has surged into Canada, worsening the ongoing fire in Fort McMurray. (Climate change also played a role in setting the stage for earlier and more intense fires in the region.) Similarly, it is the reason that the Northeast U.S. has been so chilly. Omega blocks are fairly common in spring, as the jet stream begins to weaken and migrate northward for its summer residence. Like slower moving water near the side of a riverbank, as that flow slows down and moves away, it leaves behind spinning swirls. In the atmosphere, those swirls become blocks. While blocks are a normal part of weather, there is some tentative evidence that blocking may become more common with climate change. The warming Arctic may be the key driver and is a reminder that what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic..." (Image credit: WeatherBell).
Imagery of the blaze, obtained from cameras and sensors on Earth and in space, reveal the tremendous scale of this disaster and its intensity. In the surreal dash-cam video at the top of this post, you get a sense for how fast the fire, fanned by gusty winds, was spreading Tuesday. From the vantage point of space at the same time, it looked as if a bomb exploded. Satellite imagery from NASA reveals the likeness of a mushroom cloud over the torched region..."
Graphic credit: "View of Fort McMurray wildfire from space on Tuesday." (NASA)
Dry Winter and Warm Spring Set the Stage for Canadian Inferno. Here's the intro to a story at The New York Times: "A
relatively dry El Niño winter, a warm spring that melted snow earlier
and years of policies that left forests ripe for burning have
contributed to the destructive wildfire
that forced the evacuation of Fort McMurray in Alberta, scientists say.
Global warming may have played a role, too, although experts cautioned
that it was impossible to link an individual event like this one
directly to climate change. But there is little doubt that global warming has affected the frequency and intensity of fires, and lengthened the fire season in Alberta, as it has elsewhere in North America..."
Photo credit above: "Wildfires in Fort McMurray, Alberta, on Wednesday. More than 80,000 people have fled the area." Credit Master Corporal Vanputten/Canadian Armed Forces, via European Pressphoto Agency.
Expanding Tropics Pushing High-Altitude Clouds Toward the Poles, NASA Study Finds. Here's an excerpt from NASA: "A
new NASA analysis of 30-years of satellite data suggests that a
previously observed trend of high altitude clouds in the mid-latitudes
shifting toward the poles is caused primarily by the expansion of the
tropics. Clouds are among the most important mediators of heat reaching
Earth's surface. Where clouds are absent, darker surfaces like the ocean
or vegetated land absorb heat, but where clouds occur their white tops
reflect incoming sunlight away, which can cause a cooling effect on
Earth’s surface. Where and how the distribution of cloud patterns change
strongly affects Earth's climate. Understanding the underlying causes
of cloud migration will allow researchers to better predict how they may
affect Earth's climate in the future..."
Swarm of Earthquakes Strikes Mount St. Helens. Another eruption brewing or just business as usual? CNN reports: "In
the past eight weeks, more than 130 small earthquakes have trembled
beneath the surface of Mount St. Helens. At this point, "there is
absolutely no sign that it will erupt anytime soon, but the data we
collect tells us that the volcano is still very much alive," the U.S. Geological Survey said. Seismologists reported that there are no anomalous gases, and
no signs that the collection of magma, which is the molten rock beneath
the surface of the Earth, is getting inflated in the recent swarm of
earthquakes at the volcano..."
Image credit above: "Map view plot of earthquakes located by the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network
from March 14, 2016 through May 5, 2016. Only high-quality locations
are shown (8 or more observations with a 130 degree gap or less between
observing stations)."
Graphic credit above: "Although the Pacific plate is moving northwest relative to North America at about 16 feet, or 5 meters, every 100 years, the southern San Andreas fault has been quiet for more than a century." (Thomas Jordan / Southern California Earthquake Center)
Here Comes The Next Huge Wave of Solar Panels. Huffington Post reports; here's the intro: "The solar industry is booming. The millionth set of solar panels in the United States was installed sometime in the last two months, and industry leaders expect the number of solar-powered systems to double within two years. That’s a huge deal, experts say. While solar still only makes up 1 percent of the country’s energy mix, the swift rise in solar capacity portends a bright future for an energy source that, less than 10 years ago, a leading solar tech scientist dismissed as “green bling for the wealthy.” Just 30,000 residential solar installations dotted the country a decade ago. Since then, the cost of generating power from solar has dropped by over 70 percent..." (Photo credit: Reuters).
32,000 People Sign Up For Priviledge of Dining in the Nude. CNN has the hard-hitting story that may leave you with a diminished appetite.
Image credit here.
MOTHER'S DAY: Sunny. Perfect. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 72
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low: 52
MONDAY: Sunny start, showers arrive PM hours. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 66
TUESDAY: Periods of rain likely. Winds: SE 15-25. Wake-up: 51. High: 63
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled with showers, thunder. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 55. High: 69
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, shower or sprinkle. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 51. High: near 60
FRIDAY: Touch of October. PM pop-up shower. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 48. High: 55
SATURDAY: AM frost up north? Periods of sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 38. High: near 60
Climate Stories...
Photo credit above: "A photo provided by the Canadian Armed Forces shows a view of the wildfires in Fort McMurray, Alberta, on May 4." (Canadian Armed Forces via European Pressphoto Agency)
Fort McMurray and the Fires of Climate Change. We know that fire season is increasing, and the frequency of large fires is on the increase. But can we connect the dots with the current conflagration in Alberta? Elizabeth Kolbert summaries the trends in a story at The New Yorker; here's an excerpt: "...You can say it couldn’t get worse,” Jolly added, but based on its own projections, the forest service expects that it will get worse. According to a Forest Service report published last April, “Climate change has led to fire seasons that are now on average 78 days longer than in 1970.” Over the last three decades, the area destroyed each year by forest fires has doubled, and the service’s scientists project that it’s likely to “double again by midcentury.” A group of scientists who analyzed lake cores from Alaska to obtain a record of forest fires over the last ten thousand years found that in recent decades, blazes were both unusually frequent and unusually severe. “This extreme combination suggests a transition to a unique regime of unprecedented fire activity,” they concluded..."
Photo credit above: "A helicopter flies past a wildfire in Fort McMurray, Alberta, on Wednesday. The blaze has spread through an area covering more than three hundred square miles." Credit Photograph by Jason Franson / The Canadian Press / AP.
Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms as Increasingly Realistic Threat. If anything climate models have underestimated the rate of sea level rise. Here's the intro of a good summary of the uncertainty involved at Yale Environment 360: "Ninety-nine percent of the planet's freshwater ice is locked up in the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps. Now, a growing number of studies are raising the possibility that as those ice sheets melt, sea levels could rise by six feet this century, and far higher in the next, flooding many of the world's populated coastal areas. Last month in Greenland, more than a tenth of the ice sheet’s surface was melting in the unseasonably warm spring sun, smashing 2010’s record for a thaw so early in the year. In the Antarctic, warm water licking at the base of the continent’s western ice sheet is, in effect, dissolving the cork that holds back the flow of glaciers into the sea; ice is now seeping like wine from a toppled bottle..."
Photo credit above: Christopher Michel/Flickr. "West Antarctica’s glaciers and floating ice shelves are becoming increasingly unstable."
Skepticism About Climate Change May Be Linked to Concerns About Economy. ScienceDaily has an interesting story - here's a link and excerpt: "Americans
may be more likely to accept the scientific evidence of human-caused
climate change and its potentially devastating effects if they believe
the economy is strong and stable, according to new research published by
the American Psychological Association. The findings may help explain
why many Americans haven't been swayed by public education and advocacy
efforts indicating that climate change is being caused by humans. People
who are concerned about the economy and who are strong supporters of
the free market system may be more skeptical about climate change and
downplay its potential effects, the study found. The research was
published online in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General..."
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