67 F. average high on May 7.
76 F. high on May 7, 2015.
May 8, 1924: A snowstorm brings up to 4 inches to parts of Minnesota. Minneapolis sees a half inch of snow with St. Paul picking up an inch. Up to 50 mph winds accompany the snow.
Cheap Mother's Day Gift: Showers in the 7-Day
"All that I am, or hope to be, I owe to my angel mother" wrote Abraham Lincoln. I miss my late mother - she was a force of nature, a force for good.
Instead of a cheesy Hallmark card I got your mom something better: blue sky, light winds, low 70s - no waves of Kamikaze mosquitoes on Doppler. Today should be the day mom was fantasizing about a few short months ago.
Better yet, a few showers will drift into town this week, providing some welcome moisture. Northern Minnesota is under a Red Flag Warning, meaning a significant fire risk. The Fort McMurray conflagration and evacuation reads like something out of a horror movie - so let's all agree not to complain about a little rain in the forecast this week.
The best chance of welcome puddles comes Monday afternoon into Wednesday. A half inch of rain may fall if we're lucky. Cool, Canadian air leaks southward; we may wake up to upper 30s in the metro by Saturday morning - highs hold in the 50s next weekend.
Not to worry: GFS guidance pulls 70s and a few 80s back into town in 2 weeks.
It's May, as in it MAY be nice outside.
NASA map above: temperature anomalies (C) between April 26 and May 3.
This Week's Wild Weather, Brought To You By The Letter 'Omega'. Are blocking patterns becominig more frequent? For the better part of 10-15 years I've been sharing my personal (anecdotal) views that weather may be slowing down, more prone to stalling for extended periods of time, intensifying droughts and floods. Here's an excerpt from WXshift: "...This is the reason the heat has surged into Canada, worsening the ongoing fire in Fort McMurray. (Climate change also played a role in setting the stage for earlier and more intense fires in the region.) Similarly, it is the reason that the Northeast U.S. has been so chilly. Omega blocks are fairly common in spring, as the jet stream begins to weaken and migrate northward for its summer residence. Like slower moving water near the side of a riverbank, as that flow slows down and moves away, it leaves behind spinning swirls. In the atmosphere, those swirls become blocks. While blocks are a normal part of weather, there is some tentative evidence that blocking may become more common with climate change. The warming Arctic may be the key driver and is a reminder that what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic..." (Image credit: WeatherBell).
What Canada's Wildfire Disaster Looks Like From Earth and Space. Capital Weather Gang has interesting perspective on the devastating blaze impacting much of Alberta; here's an excerpt: "...
Imagery of the blaze, obtained from cameras and sensors on Earth and in space, reveal the tremendous scale of this disaster and its intensity. In the surreal dash-cam video at the top of this post, you get a sense for how fast the fire, fanned by gusty winds, was spreading Tuesday. From the vantage point of space at the same time, it looked as if a bomb exploded. Satellite imagery from NASA reveals the likeness of a mushroom cloud over the torched region..."
Graphic credit: "
Graphic credit above: "Although the Pacific plate is moving northwest relative to North America at about 16 feet, or 5 meters, every 100 years, the southern San Andreas fault has been quiet for more than a century." (Thomas Jordan / Southern California Earthquake Center)
Here Comes The Next Huge Wave of Solar Panels. Huffington Post reports; here's the intro: "The solar industry is booming. The millionth set of solar panels in the United States was installed sometime in the last two months, and industry leaders expect the number of solar-powered systems to double within two years. That’s a huge deal, experts say. While solar still only makes up 1 percent of the country’s energy mix, the swift rise in solar capacity portends a bright future for an energy source that, less than 10 years ago, a leading solar tech scientist dismissed as “green bling for the wealthy.” Just 30,000 residential solar installations dotted the country a decade ago. Since then, the cost of generating power from solar has dropped by over 70 percent..." (Photo credit: Reuters).
32,000 People Sign Up For Priviledge of Dining in the Nude. CNN has the hard-hitting story that may leave you with a diminished appetite.
Image credit here.
MOTHER'S DAY: Sunny. Perfect. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 72
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low: 52
MONDAY: Sunny start, showers arrive PM hours. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 66
TUESDAY: Periods of rain likely. Winds: SE 15-25. Wake-up: 51. High: 63
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled with showers, thunder. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 55. High: 69
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, shower or sprinkle. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 51. High: near 60
FRIDAY: Touch of October. PM pop-up shower. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 48. High: 55
SATURDAY: AM frost up north? Periods of sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 38. High: near 60
Photo credit above: "
Fort McMurray and the Fires of Climate Change. We know that fire season is increasing, and the frequency of large fires is on the increase. But can we connect the dots with the current conflagration in Alberta? Elizabeth Kolbert summaries the trends in a story at The New Yorker; here's an excerpt: "...You can say it couldn’t get worse,” Jolly added, but based on its own projections, the forest service expects that it will get worse. According to a Forest Service report published last April, “Climate change has led to fire seasons that are now on average 78 days longer than in 1970.” Over the last three decades, the area destroyed each year by forest fires has doubled, and the service’s scientists project that it’s likely to “double again by midcentury.” A group of scientists who analyzed lake cores from Alaska to obtain a record of forest fires over the last ten thousand years found that in recent decades, blazes were both unusually frequent and unusually severe. “This extreme combination suggests a transition to a unique regime of unprecedented fire activity,” they concluded..."
Photo credit above: " " Credit Photograph by Jason Franson / The Canadian Press / AP.
Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms as Increasingly Realistic Threat. If anything climate models have underestimated the rate of sea level rise. Here's the intro of a good summary of the uncertainty involved at Yale Environment 360: "Ninety-nine percent of the planet's freshwater ice is locked up in the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps. Now, a growing number of studies are raising the possibility that as those ice sheets melt, sea levels could rise by six feet this century, and far higher in the next, flooding many of the world's populated coastal areas. Last month in Greenland, more than a tenth of the ice sheet’s surface was melting in the unseasonably warm spring sun, smashing 2010’s record for a thaw so early in the year. In the Antarctic, warm water licking at the base of the continent’s western ice sheet is, in effect, dissolving the cork that holds back the flow of glaciers into the sea; ice is now seeping like wine from a toppled bottle..."
Photo credit above: Christopher Michel/Flickr. "West Antarctica’s glaciers and floating ice shelves are becoming increasingly unstable."
The Christian Science Monitor reports; here's an excerpt: "Framing climate change as a collective, rather than individual, problem can make Americans care more about the issue, say two doctoral candidates in political science at UC San Diego in a paper published Wednesday in the journal Climatic Change. Contrary to popular opinion, climate communication researchers say personal appeals are largely ineffective. Instead of focusing on individual guilt and fear to illicit environmental action, activists, organizations, and politicians will see better results by framing the issue of climate change as a collective effort already moving in the right direction..."