79 F. high in the Twin Cities Saturday.
83 F. average high on July 2.
77 F. high on July 2, 2015.
July 3, 1947: Tornadoes hit Marshall and Polk Counties.
Cabin Aerobics: "Some Maintenance Required""I'm
not complaining, just explaining" I tell my wife, who just shrugs and
shakes her head. When you buy a house or cabin nobody tells you about
the ongoing maintenance that will be required. Stuff breaks, and it's
almost a full-time job keeping everything working.
What's your M2E
ratio? Maintenance to enjoyment. 5 to 1. 10 to 1? The thing is, keeping
the cabin and various toys functioning is a sloppy form of exercise. In
my mind I'm in much better shape when I'm up north, shutting off the
digital distractions, putting my brain in neutral, fixing stuff.
Extraordinary weather lingers over Minnesota into the
4th of July
with a light southeast breeze, comfortable dew points in the 50s and
enough warm sun to go jump in a lake. Severe storms push across Iowa
today; a few T-storms flare up over the Red River Valley
Monday, but most Minnesota towns and lakes stay dry until
Tuesday,
when a line of strong to severe storms may bubble up. We may hit 90F
later this week with a heat index in the oh-zone, but no lengthy
heatwaves are brewing into late July.
Yes, we are lucking out this year.
Gradual Warming Trend.
We should hit 80F today, with low to mid-80s on the 4th of July. You'll
start to feel a rising dew point tomorrow, but the most uncomfortable
days of the week are Tuesday and Wednesday, with a late-week cooling
trend, according to ECMWF guidance. Source: WeatherBell.
Thunder Risk Red River Valley.
4 KM NAM Future Radar guidance from NOAA shows a few bands of heavy
thunderstorms rumbling across the Red River Valley into far northern
Minnesota counties, but most Minnesota and Wisconsin lakes should remain
dry into Monday night. 60-hour loop: AerisWeather.
Rainfall By 1 AM Tuesday.
NAM guidance prints out some 1-2"+ amounts from near Grand Forks into
the BWCA, but most areas remain (miraculously) dry into Monday night. We
lucked out this year. 60-hour accumulated rainfall: NOAA and
AerisWeather.
Reeking, Oozing Algae Closes South Florida Beaches. What a mess. Here's an excerpt from
The New York Times: "...
At
play are many of the forces that define modern Florida: competing
environmental, residential and agricultural interests, a failure by
state officials to invest in managing the demands of growth, finger
pointing between state and federal officials. The result has been an
environmental nightmare playing out here, about 35 miles from the source
of the problem in Lake Okeechobee. There, an aging dike system forces
the Army Corps of Engineers
to release controlled discharges through channel locks east and west
from the lake to protect nearby towns from flooding. However, those
discharges, which carry pollutants from agricultural lands that flow
into the lake from the north, pour into rivers and lagoons downstream,
which eventually dump into the ocean..."
Photo credit: "
A green and blue algae bloom has overtaken a small neighborhood marina and other parts of the St. Lucie River in Stuart, Fla."
Credit Greg Lovett/Palm Beach Post, via Associated Press.
This Disgusting, "Guacamole-Thick" Goop is Invading Florida's Coastline. More perspective at The Washington Post: "The
green, putrid sludge coating south Florida’s usually scenic coastline
and waterways looks a lot like what happens to leftovers abandoned in an
unreachable corner of the refrigerator. In some places, the water seems
to be growing thick, furry mold. The goop has been likened to the
texture of chunky guacamole and compared to a festering, infected sore.
And for those who watch “Game of Thrones,” the almost neon-green
spillage seeping into the ocean could be best equated to a vat of
wildfire. Aerial footage makes the smelly, pungent invasion look like a
growing oil spill, but it’s not; it’s just algae, and lots of it..."
Photo credit: "
Florida's
waters are choking from algae, and the source of the growth is believed
to be from polluted Lake Okeechobee. Residents say it smells like "a
hundred dead animals" and some have complained of health problems." (Reuters)
What Are The Statistical Probabilities of Rain on the 4th of July? Across much of Minnesota it's 22-25% or roughly 1 in 4 are wet. Here's an explainer from
NOAA: "
NOAA’s National Weather Service is already issuing real forecasts for Independence Day (find your local forecast),
but here’s a historical look at the probability that your Fourth of
July picnic will be rained on, based on observations from 1981-2010.
Double click on the map (or use controls at upper left) to zoom in.
SIngle click on a dot to see the chances for rain based on a location's
climate history. More explanation and static maps for download are
available in this week's Beyond the Data blog post.
Interactive by NOAA Climate.gov, based on U.S. Climate Normals data
from Deke Arndt, National Centers for Environmental Informaiton."
Glory Index: Nice June, But Not as Remarkable as June 2015. Thanks to Kenny Blumenfeld at the
Minnesota DNR for passing this nugget along: "
The results are in, and June 2016, though occasionally quite lovely, was no June 2015. The month ended with 665.7 points on the Summer Glory Index (SGI),
making it the 24th nicest June out of 114 on record. This otherwise
respectable score is of course nowhere near the record-topping 905.5
points earned by June 2015. So, what was the difference between June
2015 and June 2016? Basically, it all comes down to a handful of
less-than-ideal days that last June avoided but that this June fully
embraced..."
Graphic credit: MNDNR, State Climatology Office.
Another Warmer Than Average Month in June. So reports Mark Seeley, in this week's installment of
Minnesota WeatherTalk: "
For
most of Minnesota June was warm, with an average monthly temperature
that ranged from 1 to 3°F greater than normal. A few areas of northern
Minnesota reported slightly cooler than normal mean June temperature
values. Extreme temperatures ranged from 100 degrees F at Madison (Lac
Qui Parle County) on the 12th to just 28 degrees F at Embarrass (St
Louis County) on the 8th. A few days with dew points in the 70s F pushed
the Heat Index above 100 degrees F at several locations and caused the
National Weather Service to issue several Heat Advisories..."
Claim That Jet Stream Crossing Equator is "Climate Emergency" is Utter Nonsense. Jason Samenow has the scientific take-down at
Capital Weather Gang: "
Two
bloggers have made a stunning claim that has spread like wildfire
on the Internet: They say the Northern Hemisphere jet stream, the
high-altitude river of winds that separates cold air from warm air, has
done something new and outrageous. They say it has crossed the equator,
joining the jet stream in the Southern Hemisphere. One said this
signifies that the jet stream is ‘wrecked‘, the other said it means we have a “global climate emergency.”
But these shrill claims have no validity — air flow between the
hemispheres occurs routinely. The claims are unsupported and
unscientific, and they demonstrate the danger of wild assertions made by
non-experts reaching and misleading the masses..."
Image credit: "
High-altitude winds as analyzed by GFS model on June 30." (earth.nullschool.net, adapted by CWG)
The Antarctic Ozone Hole Has Finally Started to "Heal", Scientists Report. Chris Mooney has details at
The Washington Post; here's the intro: "
In a major new paper in
the influential journal Science, a team of researchers report
strikingly good news about a thirty year old environmental problem. The
Antarctic ozone “hole” — which, when it was first identified in the
mid-1980s, focused public attention like few other pieces of
environmental news — has begun, in their words, to finally “heal.” “If
you use the medical analogy, first the patient was getting worse and
worse, and then the patient is stabilized, and now, the really
encouraging thing, is that the patient is really starting to get
better,” said MIT atmospheric scientist Susan Solomon, lead author of
the study, and former co-chair of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change..."
Image credit: "
This false-color image shows ozone concentrations above Antarctica on Oct. 2, 2015." (Credits: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center).
A Fatality Forces Tesla To Confront Its Limits. Here's an excerpt from a New York Times story: "...The
question now is how much longer Mr. Musk and Tesla can continue to defy
auto industry convention in trying to stay so far ahead of the
competition. A major point of contention is the Autopilot feature and
the decision to make it available to car owners while it was in “beta
test” mode — a term typically applied to software that a company
releases on an experimental basis..."
It's a Boy Thing. Couples that have boys are more likely to stay together? I'd like to see the data please. Here's an excerpt from
The Economist: "..
.People
will also reveal to pollsters preferences they might keep from their
families. In every Gallup poll since the 1940s, when asked which sex
they would prefer if they could have only one child, Americans have
consistently pulled for boys. Results from the most recent poll, in
2011, were startlingly similar to those from the first: Americans said
they favour boys over girls by a margin of 12 percentage points. This
preference is driven mainly by men; women are largely agnostic. “Most
people will say in public that they are happy to have a boy or a girl,
they just want a healthy child,” says Vienna Pharaon, a marriage and
family therapist in Manhattan. “But in the therapy room, where people
are more comfortable feeling vulnerable, there’s an overwhelming sense
that men really do want to have a boy...”
Father Recreates His Kids' Selfies In The Most Ridiculous Dad Way. I don't know why but this made me laugh. I thought this was a creative form of fatherly intervention. Here's an explanation at Boing Boing: "So
my daughter has been posting sexy selfies of herself and instead of
telling her to stop, well, I thought of something better,” a dad from
Washington state wrote on Instagram. Cassie Martin’s
dad Burr re-created one of Cassie's photos, presented the images side
by side, and posted the double image on Instagram. A meme was born..."
TODAY: Plenty of sunshine, lukewarm. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 80:
TONIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy. Low: 62
4TH OF JULY: Warm sun, a bit stickier - but dry. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 83
TUESDAY: Steamy, risk of strong/severe storms. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 67. High: 88
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, still sticky. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 70. High: 89
THURSDAY: Showers, possible T-storms. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 69. High: 85
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, turning less humid. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 64. High: 83
SATURDAY: Lot's of sun. Nicer day of the weekend. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 82
Climate Stories...
Hillary Clinton's Ambitious Climate Change Plan Avoids Carbon Tax. Here's the intro of a story at
The New York Times: "
Hillary Clinton, courting young voters and the broader Democratic base, has promised to one-up President Obama on climate change,
vowing to produce a third of the nation’s electricity from renewable
sources by 2027, three years faster than Mr. Obama, while spending
billions of dollars to transform the energy economy. A half-billion
solar panels will be installed by 2020, she has promised, seven times
the number today, and $60 billion will go to states and cities to
develop more climate-friendly infrastructure, such as public
transportation and energy-efficient buildings. She would put the United
States on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent from 2005
levels by 2050. And, she says, she could achieve all that without new
legislation from Congress..."
Image credit: "Hillary Clinton has promised to have a half-billion solar panels installed by 2020." Credit Damon Winter/The New York Times.
Exxon Mobil Backs Carbon Tax For Climate Change. Here's an excerpt from
NASDAQ.com: "...
The
Wall Street Journal reports that ExxonMobil has quietly been lobbying
members of the U.S. Congress to implement a carbon tax, essentially
viewing it as one of the least bad options to curb greenhouse gas
emissions. The thinking inside the oil supermajor is that it can no
longer be seen as opposed to all climate action. Complete intransigence
could risk less desirable outcomes for the oil industry, such as more
restrictive regulations on oil and gas production. A carbon tax is a
more efficient way to deal with greenhouse gas emissions, both Exxon and
independent economists argue. “Of the policy options being considered
by governments, we believe a revenue-neutral carbon tax is the best,”
Suzanne McCarron, Exxon’s vice president of public and government
affairs, wrote in the Dallas Morning News in May..."
Did Exxon Lie About Global Warming? Here's a clip from a
Rolling Stone article: "..."
Just
saying 'turn the taps off' is not acceptable to humanity." In other
words, the world will not actually meet the Paris goals. So Exxon will
be fine. The auditorium, packed mostly with corporate die-hards, erupts
in applause, but the case against Exxon may turn on moments like this.
Schneiderman does not have to show that the company injured a specific
victim or conspired to hide what it knew about climate science from the
public – just that it did not tell its own investors the truth about the
risks climate change poses to its bottom line..."
Exxon Is Fighting for It's Right to Deny Climage Change.
You can deny whatever you want - believe whatever you want, but when if
you (knowingly) defraud investors your First Ammendment rights won't
protect you. Here's an excerpt at
WIRED: "...
Robert Post, the dean of Yale Law School, argues that it is
“irresponsible to invoke the First Amendment” to defend Exxon. “There
are circumstances when scientific theories must remain open and subject
to challenge, and there are circumstances when the government must act
to protect the integrity of the market, even if it requires determining
the truth or falsity of those theories,” wrote Post in a Washington Post
op-ed last week. “Public debate must be protected, but fraud must also
be suppressed...” (Photo credit:
Mike Blake/Reuters).
Sea Level Rise Could Wash Away Our Natural and Cultural History. Climate Central takes a look at what's at stake over the long haul; here's an excerpt: "...
Viewed
separately, the Statue of Liberty and Gateway parks have little in
common aside from a shared city. But they’re inextricably linked, being
forced to deal with the impacts of climate change and sea level rise.
Together, they’re growing threats that endanger the culture and history
these parks were created to protect, not to mention billions of dollars
in assets and the quality of life for millions. How the National Park
Service prepares for and deals with those threats is a step into an
uncertain future, one that could reshape the landscape for parks and
communities along the coast and across the country..."
Wildfires Engulfing the West Coast are Fueled by Climate Change, Experts Warn. Here's a clip from a story at
The Guardian: "...
Wildfire experts said there are numerous indicators
that warming temperatures have contributed to the fires by drying out
vegetation and soils and causing an earlier spring melt of snow. Trees
are also less resilient to fire due to infestations of beetles, which
thrive in warmer weather. Over the past 30 years there has been a fourfold increase
in the number of large forest fires in the American west, while the
fire season has grown by 84 days to 220 days in this time. The amount of
area burned has ballooned by 1,200%, with areas such as the northern
Rockies and the north-west particularly badly hit..."
Image credit: "
The
amount of area burned has ballooned by 1,200%, with areas such as the
northern Rockies and the north-west particularly badly hit." Photograph: Ryan Babroff/AP.
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