56 F. average high on October 20.
59 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities on October 20, 2015.
October 21, 1916: A three-day blizzard ends. Also, a sharp temperature drop occurs at Bird Island, falling from 65 to 13.
Will Winter La Nina Trigger La Snowfall?
Every year people ask me what winter will bring. I take a deep breath, stare out the Amish Doppler (a window) and tell them the truth. "Colder...with some snow." I stand by that prediction.
NOAA just released their official winter preview; La Nina cooling of Pacific Ocean water favoring cooler, wetter weather for the northern tier states, including Minnesota. My gut: the upcoming winter will be colder and snowier than last winter.
There's a better chance of "average snowfall", which is close to 55 inches in the MSP metro area. But I doubt we'll see as much as 2010-2011, when a whopping 87 inches dazzled snow lovers. Keep your expectations low and you'll never be disappointed.
A stray shower is possible this evening but most towns stay dry through Monday night. The mercury brushes 60F on Saturday before cooling off early next week. There's a better chance of heavier/steadier rain by the middle of next week. The Halloween outlook is better: near 50F with a Severe Ghoul Advisory.
The coldest reading at MSP Airport so far this fall is 36F. The last (official) sub-freezing low temperature was April 12. Wow.
ENSO Model Plume: Earth Institute, Columbia University.
Map credit: "The year-to-date heat has the world on track for its hottest year on record."
Animation credit: "NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center/Ryan Fitzgibbons, producer."
Photo credit upper left: "Greensburg, Kansas is the second city in the U.S. to convert to 100 percent renewable energy after it was devastated by a powerful tornado in 2007." Wikimedia Commons.
Photo credit upper right: "A hospital turbine in Greensburg, Kansas." The City of Greensburg.
Let's Choose a New Name for "Indian Summer". Yes, the name is something of a head-scratcher. Here's more perspective from Atlas Obscura: "...In his extremely thorough research, though, Matthews never discovered a convincing explanation for what the phrase meant. Why associate Native Americans with warm days in fall? There were plenty of ideas floating around: Native Americans had predicted the warm spell to settlers; they used that time of the year to extend their harvest; a tribe's mythology connects the weather to the sigh of the personified southern wind. "Indian summer" may have had a tinge of colonial nostalgia to it, too. Some of the examples Matthews found argued that by the 1800s "Indian summer" had disappeared. "This short season of mild and serene weather, the halcyon period of autumn, has disappeared with the primitive rest," wrote one 19th century author. “It fled from our land before the progress of civilization; it has departed with the primitive forest..."
TODAY: Clouds increase, light shower or sprinkle late. Winds: S 7-12. High: 55
FRIDAY NIGHT: Few sprinkles. Low: 42
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, milder. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 62
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooler breeze kicks in. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 47. High: 58
MONDAY: Bright sunshine, quite pleasant. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 39. High: 56
TUESDAY: Gray with light rain developing. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 45. High: 53
WEDNESDAY: Delightfully foul. Periods of rain. Wake-up: 43. High: near 50
THURSDAY: Scrappy clouds, few sprinkles. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 38. High: 54
Photo credit: "When water accumulates on the surface of an ice sheet, more sunlight gets absorbed, which results in more melt, in a cycle that builds on itself. This year’s melt season began so early that many scientists couldn’t believe the data they were seeing." Photograph by Daniel Beltrá.
Image credit: NASA.
September An Exclamation Point on String of Hot Months - 2016 Will Be Warmest Year on Record. Here's a clip from a story at Climate Central: "...To say there’s never been a stretch like this may sound like stating the obvious, but let’s recap for the heck of it. The September mark comes a month after the world tied the record for the hottest month ever recorded in August (the month it tied was this July). As early as May, there was a 99 percent chance that 2016 was going to go down as the hottest year on record, besting 2015, which bested 2014, because the planet has been on a heat bender since last year. With September’s record, the odds crept a little higher still. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said on Twitter that 2016 “seems locked in” to set a record for hottest year with it likely to end somewhere around 2.25°F (1.25°C) above the late 19th century average..."