57 F. average high on October 18.
63 F. high on October 18, 2015.
October 19, 2000: The warmest October 19th in Minnesota history occurs for many towns. Many cities had highs in the 80s, with the Twin Cities hitting 84. Appleton in Swift County reported 90 degrees.
October 19, 1972: A cold snap moves through Minnesota, with lows of 1 above in Tower and 9 in St. Peter and Luverne.
October 19, 1916: Redwood Falls receives a record-setting 7 inches of snow.
"Paul, Why Does The 7-Day Outlook Change So Much?"
Talking about the weather (and the Vikings) has been a relief in recent weeks. CNN gives me heart palpitations, so let's just ponder the state of the atmosphere and call it a day.
Readers tend to get annoyed when the forecast changes, especially for weekend plans. I feel your pain, but here's the deal: most NOAA models update 4 times a day. There are 2 daily ECMWF (European) simulations.
New data "initializing" the models generates a new solution of how weather patterns should behave over time. Meteorologists look for continuity and consistency between models - and over time. We look for trends (wetter, drier, warmer, cooler) but it can be maddening, especially days 4-7 of the extended outlook.
It's like your fantasy football team. Predicting injuries and trades? Good luck. There are unknown unknowns, elements that just can't be predicted in advance with any accuracy.
Enjoy a relatively dry stretch of weather into next week as the biggest, wettest storms track south of Minnesota. 50s later this week give way to another mild blip of 60s early next week.
Soak up this extended warm season. On October 19, 1972 St. Peter woke up to a brisk 9F!
September An Exclamation Point on String of Hot Months - 2016 Will Be Warmest Year on Record. Here's a clip from a story at Climate Central: "...To say there’s never been a stretch like this may sound like stating the obvious, but let’s recap for the heck of it. The September mark comes a month after the world tied the record for the hottest month ever recorded in August (the month it tied was this July). As early as May, there was a 99 percent chance that 2016 was going to go down as the hottest year on record, besting 2015, which bested 2014, because the planet has been on a heat bender since last year. With September’s record, the odds crept a little higher still. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said on Twitter that 2016 “seems locked in” to set a record for hottest year with it likely to end somewhere around 2.25°F (1.25°C) above the late 19th century average..."
Animation credit: earth.nullschool.net
Photo credit: "This Nov. 5, 2015, photo shows a heavy earth mover building a sea wall on Majuro Atoll, Marshall. Rising seas in the Marshall Islands can be seen on many of the Atolls in the group as more coastline disappears and vegetation is washed away. The US military ignored warnings about rising seas to build a space radar costing nearly a billion dollars on a tiny atoll in the Marshall Islands. The Space Fence system is considered vital for keeping astronauts and satellites safe by tracking space junk as small as a baseball." (AP Photo/Rob Griffith)
Minnesota and Wisconsin At Greatest Risk of Solar Storm-Related Grid Failures? Well here's a big day-brightener. Due to a combination of factors, geomagnetic storms and magnetic material deep underground, Minnesota and Wisconsin may have the greatest potential for power outages related to solar activity, according to a story at Daily Mail Online: "Solar storms threaten Earth about every 100 years and experts warn we are overdue. Now, researchers have released the first ever map that shows which area of the US are at high risk of being hit by the next intense storm. The map was built using geomagnetic storm measurements and data from magnetic materials beneath the Earth - revealing Minnesota is particularly at risk of being blasted by solar material..."
Map credit: "Researchers created a map that shows what areas of the US are at high risk of intense solar storms. The red and black dots represent areas at the highest risk, green and yellow are the lowest and gray means there is not yet enough data to map a geoelectric hazard."
Gizmodo has more perspective here.
Photo credit: "Drawing water in Mauritania during a severe drought that hit East Africa in 2012."
Credit: Oxfam International/flickr
Photo credit: " Credit Tara Todras-Whitehill for The New York Times.
Wind Could Supply Fifth of World Electricity by 2030. Reuters has the story: "Wind power could supply as much as 20 percent of the world's total electricity by 2030 due to dramatic cost reductions and pledges to curb climate change, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) said in a report released in Beijing on Tuesday. If last year's Paris climate accord leads to a worldwide commitment to the decarbonization of the electricity sector, total wind power capacity could reach as much as 2,110 gigawatts (GW) by then, nearly five times its current level, the industry group said..."
Photo credit: "An electricity pylon is seen next to wind turbines at a wind power plant in Hami, Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, China, March 21, 2015." REUTERS/Stringer.
The Shift to Renewables: How Far, How Fast? Forbes has a story that frames the challenge - and market opportunity: "Powering the United States or the world with 100% renewable energy is the stated goal of many individuals and organizations. What they are really talking about is 100% renewables to generate electricity, because it’s not feasible in the near-term to replace motor fuels with renewables. Views of how quickly this can be done are highly polarized – some predict less than two decades, while others see fossil fuels as the dominant source at least through 2050. The primary argument for renewable energy is to avoid anthropogenic, or human-caused, climate change by reducing CO2 emissions. Progress toward that goal has fallen well short of reductions believed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control (IPCC) to be necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change..."
Photo credit upper left: "Greensburg, Kansas is the second city in the U.S. to convert to 100 percent renewable energy after it was devastated by a powerful tornado in 2007." Wikimedia Commons.
Photo credit upper right: "A hospital turbine in Greensburg, Kansas." The City of Greensburg.
TODAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: NW 5-10. High: near 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy. Low: 38
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Feels like October again. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 54
FRIDAY: Early frost outlying suburbs. Sun gets tangled up in cirrus clouds. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 37. High: 57
SATURDAY: Intervals of sun, not bad at all. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 40. High: near 60
SUNDAY: Good day to check out peak fall color. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 48. High: 61
MONDAY: Plenty of sun, few complaints. Wake-up: 47. High: 62
TUESDAY: Breezy, a taste of early September? Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 72
Graphic credit: "