35 F. average high on November 26.
40 F. high on November 26, 2015.
November 27, 2005: In the early morning a home in Mower County is hit by lightning and burned to the ground, but no one is injured.
November 27, 1994: A low pressure system produces the first winter storm of the season for Minnesota. By the early morning hours of the 28th, a swath of snow in excess of 6 inches had blanketed much of southwest through central into northeast Minnesota. Snowfall of 6 inches or more occurred south of a line from Gunflint Lake in Cook County to near Ortonville in Big Stone County, and along and north of a line from near Blue Earth in Faribault County to Red Wing in Goodhue County. The snow closed the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport for a short time on the 27th, and contributed to hundreds of accidents and at least three fatalities. In addition, the build-up of ice and snow in combination with strong winds resulted in numerous downed power lines in southeast Minnesota.
November 27, 1985: Extreme cold hits northern Minnesota. A low of 30 below zero is reported at Crookston.
November 27, 1971: Heavy snow falls in southwest Minnesota, with Redwood Falls receiving a foot.
Exclusive Winter Outlook: "Colder With Some Snow"
My 11th grade advanced placement English teacher had good advice. "Use action words. And when in doubt, mumble. Better yet, obfuscate."
I've been doing a lot of mumbling and random hand-waving in recent weeks when asked about the winter to come.
Weather researcher Judah Cohen tracks Siberian snowcover in October to gauge how tough winters will be in the U.S. Based on the rate of Russian snow he predicts a weakened polar vortex capable of lobbing arctic air southward; coldest conditions east of the Rockies. Not as cold as 3 winters ago - but close. NOAA is studying Cohen's research but it doesn't factor Siberian snowcover into its winter outlook.
I suspect it will be colder and snowier than last winter as freakish warming of the arctic throws the jet stream off the rails, again.
Rain arrives tonight with puddles lingering into Monday as showers taper. A coating of light snow is possible the latter half of the week, but no headline-grabbing storms are brewing into next week.
Enjoy 40s, because the first half of December will be a poignant reminder that we live (way) 'up north.
Map credit above: "Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies, and the predicted winter value of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. October Siberian snow cover advanced at an above normal rate during the entire month. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter, and cold temperatures, especially east of the Mississippi. This is the most recent forecast using the full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies." Forecast date: November 14, 2016.
Credit: Judah Cohen. More information at The National Science Foundation.
Winter Weather Accident Statistics. For me the most important lesson in all of this is to force myself to slow down. Many of us still drive way too fast for conditions. Here's an excerpt from thezebra.com: "According to the Federal Highway Administration, 70 percent of the nation’s roads are located in snowy regions—in other words, anywhere that receives more than five inches of snowfall each year, on average. In addition, nearly 70 percent of the U.S. population lives in these snowy regions. In other words? A lot of us have to deal with winter storms. And about 70 percent of the accidental deaths that occur in the wintertime happen in automobiles.
Other Sobering Stats (from the folks at SafeWinterRoads.org:
- Over 1,300 people are killed and more than 116,800 people are injured in vehicle crashes on snowy, slushy or icy pavement annually.
- Every year, nearly 900 people are killed and nearly 76,000 people are injured in vehicle crashes during snowfall or sleet..."
November Nuggets. Here are a few factoids regarding the abnormally mild start to November across the USA, courtesy of Planalytics: "Nationally, it was the warmest 3rd week of November in 55+ years. Cooler temperatures were focused in the South Atlantic region. Despite the late week snowstorm, the third week of November recorded the least snow and rain since 2012..."
Enlightening. Thanks to Vasin Lee and Shutterstock.com for passing this one along.
Illustration credit: Luisa Rivera for Yale E360.
SUNDAY: Mild with increasing clouds. Showers by late afternoon or evening. Winds: SE 8-13.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain, heavy at times. Low: 45
MONDAY: Showers linger, wet roads. Winds: S 10-20. High: 50 (early, then falling)
TUESDAY: Light rain/snow mix. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 36. High: near 40
WEDNESDAY: Coating of light snow possible. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: 38
THURSDAY: Clouds linger, more flurries - slick spots. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 30. High: 37
FRIDAY: Chilly holding pattern, more flakes. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 30. High: 38
SATURDAY: Peeks of sun, flurries hang on - seasonably chilly. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 29. High: 37
5-Day Predicted Temperature Anomalies: Climate Reanalyzer.
Full Speed Ahead: Shipping Plans Grow As Arctic Ice Fades. Here's an excerpt of a head-shaking article at Yale Environment 360: "...Russia is farther ahead than any other country in exploiting Arctic shipping opportunities. It has more icebreakers by far than any other nation — 40 — and more Arctic ports. (Canada and the United States have no significant ports on the Arctic Ocean.) To further boost the development of new shipping routes, Russia’s State Commission on Development of the Arctic Regions convened in Moscow last April to establish a single company that will oversee all logistical operations in the Arctic region and coordinate the activities of various levels of government..."
Map credit: "Past and projected summer sea ice decline in the Arctic" The Arctic Institute.
Photo credit: "
Meteorologist Paul Douglas Hopes To Bridge Christian Climate Change Debate. My thanks to Jean Hopfensperger at The Star Tribune for the review: "The book, entitled “Caring for Creation: An Evangelical’s Guide to Climate Change and a Healthy Environment,” hit the bookstores this month. It is co-authored by the Rev. Mitch Hescox, president of the Evangelical Environmental Network. “I figured if people didn’t want to hear from scientists, maybe they’d listen to a minister and a meteorologist,” said Douglas. The book constructs the debate around evangelical values: It is the “personal responsibility” of Christians to protect God’s creation. It is “pro-life” because it is protecting children from illnesses from autism to asthma, as well as protecting all life on Earth..."