38 F. average high on November 21.
28 F. high on November 21, 2015.
November 22, 1996: Heavy snowfall accumulates over the same areas that were hit two days earlier. Four to seven inches of snowfall are reported across the area. Heavier snowfall occurred during the daylight hours of the 23rd. Snowfall totals of six inches were reported in the Twin Cities, Chanhassen, Stewart, St. James and Redwood Falls.
November 22, 1970: Gale-driven snow falls across Minnesota. 45 mph winds are reported over Rochester and Duluth.
Weather Goes From Minnesota Nice to Minnesota Ice
Over the years I've learned a few things the hard way. The timing of a storm is obviously critical. So is the surface temperature. We tend to get hung up on snow amounts ("Hey Paul, where's that 4 inches you promised me!") when air temperature often determines how bad rush hour will be.
Colder storms tend to be more dangerous. Snow falling at 15F compresses into ice, and chemicals take time to melt this dangerous, slippery crust. In fact an inch at 17F can be far more hazardous to drive on than 6 inches of slush at 33F.
A layer of mild air aloft may result in a mixed bag of snow, sleet (ice pellets), even freezing rain - the most dangerous form of wintry precipitation. MnDOT-treated freeways may stay wet and slushy during the daylight hours today, but I expect roads to become icier everywhere tonight with a changeover back to snow. 2-4 inches falls by Wednesday in the metro with more over central Minnesota.
Light snow brushes southern Minnesota Thursday night; ECMWF guidance hints at a few more inches of slush Sunday night as rain changes back to snow.
Dig out the parkas - December looks good and cold.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * EXPECT WET SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 2 PM TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. * THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM TUESDAY AND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. * TOTAL WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. * PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.
Wednesday Travel Weather. Models print out showers from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. No major problems getting hom on Wednesday. Map: Aeris AMP.
Thursday Travel Weather. Heavy rain pushes into the Pacific Northwest, otherwise relatively dry, quiet weather prevails on Thanksgiving Day with pleasant temperatures over the southern half of the USA.
Instant Winter. Reports of serious, lake effect snows for upstate New York and much of New England:
A Raw Thanksgiving Parade. Conditions are ripe for rain showers in New York City Thursday - not a steady, heavy rain, but it will definitely look and feel like late November.
Animation credit: "Changes in the concentration of Arctic sea ice between Nov. 12 and 19, 2016 are seen in this animation of satellite data. The North Pole is at the center. Areas with 100 percent coverage of ice are depicted in white. Lighter to darker blue tones are indicative of decreasing concentrations. And areas with no ice are in gray. Ice actually decreased within the area circled in red in the first frame of the animation." (Data: University of Bremen. Images: Polar View. Animation: Tom Yulsman).
Graphic credit: "The normalized value of global sea ice area as of November 17, 2016, was so far from any other total in the 37-year record that it represented a departure of about 8 standard deviations below the average! Image credit: Wipneus, using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center." (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)
U.S. Launches Revolutionary Weather Satellite. The Washington Post has more clarity and background on what makes GOES-R a massive step forward for the science of meteorology: "...The “camera” instrument on GOES-R — called the Advanced — doubles the resolution of the current NOAA satellites. It can scan the whole hemisphere in five minutes, and if there’s a particularly dangerous weather pattern approaching, forecasters can scan a smaller region over the United States every 30 seconds. Sudden bursts of lightning could mean thunderstorms are becoming severe. So, GOES-R has a lightning mapper to continuously monitor and transmit all of the lightning strikes across North America and the surrounding oceans..."
Image credit: "
Photo credit: "A stand of pine-beetle killed lodgepole pines on the White River National Forest." @bberwyn photo.
Earthquakes: Reckoning With The Big One in California - And It Just Got Bigger. Here's a good summary of a recent study at The Wall Street Journal: "...For years, scientists believed the mighty San Andreas—the 800-mile-long fault running the length of California where the Pacific and North American plates meet—could only rupture in isolated sections. But a recent study by federal, state and academic researchers showed that much of the fault could unzip all at once, unleashing a rare, singular catastrophe. Now, insurers have used that research to come up with a new analysis of the damage that could be caused by statewide break of the San Andreas..."
Photo credit above: " Photo: AP.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-11-noaa-goes-r-satellite.html#jCp
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-11-noaa-goes-r-satellite.html#
Photo credit: "
WEDNESDAY: Snow tapers to flurries. 2-4" totals in the metro. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 36
THANKSGIVING DAY: Mostly cloudy, nighttime flurries? Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 29. high: near 40
BLACK FRIDAY: Good shopping weather. Peeks of sun. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 28. High: 41
SATURDAY: Fading sun, nicer day of the weekend. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 30. High: 44
SUNDAY: Rain changes to wet snow late. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: 45 (falling late)
MONDAY: Flurries taper, some clearing late. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 32. High: 36
Paul Douglas Lays Out a Faith-Based Approach to Climate Change. My thanks to Esme Murphy and WCCO-TV for inviting me to come to the station Sunday and discuss ways to reach out to evangelicals and conservatives; to try and tell the climate story in ways that resonate with their lives and spirituality. Here's an excerpt from CBS Minnesota: "Douglas, who was a guest on WCCO Sunday Morning, said his book in an attempt to reframe the discussion about climate change into something beyond just the science, which he describes as undeniable. “You can pile on the science, but at some point, people tune out the science,” Douglas said. “But if you frame this under the guise of clean energy, energy freedom, energy security…it’s framing the story in a way that resonates and appeals to peoples’ faith.” Douglas says that Christians, as stewards of the Earth, have a moral obligation to do something about climate change and the threat it poses to the world..."
* The complete 5 minute interview on WCCO-TV is here.
Graphic credit: "
Photo credit: Pascal Sittler/REA/Redux. "Rex Tillerson, CEO of ExxonMobil, at the World Gas Conference, Paris, June 2015."