November 16, 1931: A tornado touches down near Maple Plain in Hennepin County. The tornado damage path was five miles long.
An Atmospheric Version of Beauty and the Beast
It's quite remarkable: people waving at me - with all their fingers! Some have stopped me on the street and thanked me for our jumbo, super-sized autumn. No, it's not at all unusual to be mowing your lawn in Minnesota in mid-November. No need to be concerned, please move along!
Considering we could be butt-deep in snow I don't take 60F and sunshine for granted. Mild weather lingers into early Friday, and then temperatures go over a small cliff. Models suggest a big storm tracking from Wichita to Des Moines to Eau Claire on Friday, sucking enough cold air into Minnesota for a changeover to heavy wet snow. Ground temperatures are still mild, so some of that snow will melt on contact in the metro area, but an inch or two of slush can't be ruled out on lawns and fields by Friday night.
As much as 5-12 inches of wet snow may fall from Alexandria to the Brainerd Lakes and Minnesota Arrowhead during the PM hours Friday. Like turning on a light switch: instant winter.
Travel improves over the weekend and Thanksgiving week brings highs in the 40s; a cold rain next Wednesday.
Could be worse.
Meteograms above showing high winds and rapidly falling temperatures on Friday courtesy of NOAA and AerisWeather.
Thanksgiving Day: GFS Solution. NOAA's GFS model pulls a surge of moderate to heavy rain into New England next Thursday, with wrap-around showers of rain and snow for Pennsylvania and Ohio. Showers are forecast to push into northern California; otherwise the rest of the USA looks relatively quiet and fairly mild from the Great Plains into the southwestern states. Source: WSI.
Thanksgiving Day: ECMWF Solution. I look at all the models but if push comes to shove I still assign more weight to the European. It's far from perfect or foolproof, but it often does a better job, especially beyond 5 days. The ECMWF suggests (rain) showers Thanksgiving Day from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast; showery, unsettled weather for the Pacific Northwest - otherwise most of America gets a break this year.
Image credit: "Plumes of smoke from wildfires burning in the southern Appalachians are seen in this broad view of nearly half of the United States acquired by the Suomi NPP satellite on November 12, 2016. The smoke plumes are roughly dead center in the image, almost straight north from Florida. Click on the image and then click again for extreme closeup views." (Source: NASA Worldview).
Natural Disasters Push 26 Million Into Poverty Each Year, Says World Bank. The Guardian reports: "Floods, earthquakes, tsunamis and other extreme natural disasters push 26 million people into poverty each year and cost the global economy more than half a trillion dollars in lost consumption, the World Bank has said. A bank study of 117 countries concluded that the full cost of natural disasters was $520bn (£416bn) a year – 60% higher than any previous estimate – once the impact on poor people was taken into account..."
The History of Weather Satellites. AccuWeather has an interesting post - yes, we've come a long way, and GOES-R marks the next big evolutionary leap: "The science of weather forecasting has come a long way over the past 100 years, but one of the biggest leaps forward occurred once information from weather satellites was readily available. Weather satellites have had such a huge impact on weather forecasting that some divide the history of meteorology into two categories: pre-satellite era and post-satellite era. Weather satellites provide invaluable data to meteorologists all around the world, not only by sending forecasters images of weather systems but also by supplying weather models with remote observations in places where observations cannot be taken at the Earth's surface..."
Image credit: "The first photo of Earth from a weather satellite, taken by TIROS-1." (Photo/NASA)
Photo credit: "
THURSDAY: Clouds increase and thicken, no travel headaches yet. Winds: E 7-12. High: 61
FRIDAY: Falling temps, blustery. Rain changes to snow. Slushy potential PM hours. Winds: NW 20-40. High: 52 (falling into the 30s by late afternoon)
SATURDAY: Sun peeks out, winds ease. Winds: NW 10-20. Chilly. Wake-up: 32. High: 37
SUNDAY: First hard freeze for MSP. Bright sunshine. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 26. High: 36
MONDAY: Clouds slowly increase. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: near 40
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, feels like November. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 30. High: 42
Graphic credit: " CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology, Author provided.
Image credit: Elena Scotti/FUSION.
Religious Environmentalists Gird Themselves for a Trump Presidency. Here's the intro to a story at Religion News Service: "For environmentalists who ground their work in faith, Donald Trump in the White House presents an unexpected and direct challenge to what they consider their God-given responsibility to care for Creation. And they fear that of all the changes a Trump presidency will bring, his dismissal of climate change could be the most far-reaching and damaging. Trump has deemed climate change a “hoax.” He said he wants to ignore the Paris climate accords. And he has indicated that he would roll back President Obama’s efforts to reduce methane, carbon and other pollutants..." (Image credit: NASA).