November 18, 1979: A heat wave continues in Southwest Minnesota. The temperature hits 70 degrees at Browns Valley.
Slushy Possibilities - Blizzard Potential West of MSP
Maybe if I put the parka on over my shorts I'll be OK? Wednesday's 60-degree warmth seems like a meteorological mirage. Blame a low sun angle. The northern hemisphere has caught a cold - the first real sneeze of Canadian air spinning up an intense storm today.
A tight pressure gradient causes air to accelerate into a partial vacuum (the center of low pressure) at speeds as high as 50-55 mph over western Minnesota, creating white-out conditions. I'd think twice about driving toward the Dakotas, unless you're a fan of white-knuckle driving.
The axis of heaviest snow, 8-12 inches or more, runs from Windom to Wadena to Walker - into the Minnesota Arrowhead. ECMWF guidance prints out 5-10" inches or so for St. Cloud, Brainerd and Duluth; maybe a sloppy inch or two for the Twin Cities, where snow will melt on contact until late afternoon today. Consider this payback for the warmest start to November on record, statewide.
Skies clear over the weekend with a little rain next Tuesday, but dry weather on Thanksgiving with highs in the low 40s.
That's "average" for late November, remember?
A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY WEST OF REDWOOD FALLS TO WILLMAR AND ALEXANDRIA. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS T0 50 MPH COMBINE WITH HEAVY SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH TRAVEL BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TO THE EAST OF THE BLIZZARD AREA...WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WHERE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESSER. THE WINTER STORM WARNING INCLUDES AREAS NEAR ST CLOUD...LITTLE FALLS...AND LONG PRAIRIE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE MAJORITY OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND MANKATO. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO ST CLOUD AND LAKE MILLE LACS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER DOUGLAS...TODD...AND MORRISON CONTINUES. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST...WITH AROUND ONE INCH EXPECTED IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO.
Thanksgiving Day: GFS. NOAA's GFS model is predicting a cold rain for much of New England next Thursday with snow showers for upstate New York and the mountains of northwest Colorado. The next Pacific storm pushes rain into the Portland and Seattle; otherwise the rest of America looks dry and relatively mild for late November. Source: WSI.
Thanksgiving Day: ECMWF. The European model suggests light showers of rain and wet snow for New England; heavier rain over the eastern Carolinas and Mid Atlantic as well as the Pacific Northwest. Dry weather prevails across most of America with unusually mild weather from the Plains into the southwestern USA. Source: WSI.
Graphic credit: "The year-to-date temperature anomaly (through September) using the 1891-1910 baseline."
Weather Satellite Revolution. Here's more detail from NOAA: "Included in the advanced equipment on the satellite is the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper. In addition to providing forecaster with information on the potential for severe storm development this new technology will allow NOAA to provide real-time observations of lightning data directly to the public. This will allow the public to track lightning activity throughout the country, monitor nearby storms, and curtail outdoor activities early to avoid the lightning threat.
This year there have been 36 lightning deaths in the U.S., the most since 2007 when there were 45 fatalities. On average there have been about 30 lightning deaths in the U.S. in recent years.
More information on the Geostationary Lightning Mapper can be found at:
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-11-noaa-goes-r-satellite.html#jCp
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-11-noaa-goes-r-satellite.html#jCp
Protecting Your Digital Life in 7 Easy Steps. The New York Times has some good advice: "There are more reasons than ever to understand how to protect your personal information. Major hacks seem ever more frequent. Investigators believe that a set of top-secret National Security Agency hacking tools were offered to online bidders this summer. And many of those worried about expanded government surveillance by the N.S.A. and other agencies have taken steps to secure their communication..."
Image credit: Kacper Pempel/Reuters.
SATURDAY: Sub-freezing start, first time in 221 days. Skies clear by afternoon. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 35
SUNDAY: Cold start, plenty of sunshine. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 21. High: 38
MONDAY: Partly sunny, average temps. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 24. High: 42
TUESDAY: A little light rain, wet roads. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High: 43
WEDNESDAY: Light mix tapers, slow PM clearing. Wake-up: 36. High: 42
THURSDAY: Sunny peeks, dry on Thanksgiving Day. Wake-up: 29. High: 41
Trump Win Opens Way for China To Take Climate Leadership Role. Reuters reports: "The election of climate change skeptic Donald Trump as president is likely to end the U.S. leadership role in the international fight against global warming and may lead to the emergence of a new and unlikely champion: China. China worked closely with the administration of outgoing President Barack Obama to build momentum ahead of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. The partnership of the two biggest greenhouse gas emitters helped get nearly 200 countries to support the pact at the historic meet in France's capital..."
Photo credit: "U.S. President-elect Donald Trump gestures as he speaks at election night rally in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 9, 2016." REUTERS/Mike Segar.
Climate Change, Hurricanes and Floods: An LSU Dialogue. Louisiana will be one of the first states to be impacted by rising seas and heavier summer rains; here's an excerpt from NOLA.com: "Climate change, hurricanes and floods were hot topics Wednesday (Nov. 16) during the Louisiana State University International Programs' intercultural dialogue on weather, water and climate. Whatever the extent of climate change, one speaker said, Louisiana will be in the crosshairs. Jay Grymes, chief meteorologist at WAFB television, opened the presentations with a focus on the state's wet climate and the potential effects of climate change. He warned that of the lower 48 states, Louisiana might be the most severely affected..."
Photo credit: Max Becherer, AP.
Tracking Effects of Climate Change on Human Health. Here's an excerpt from Huffington Post: "...It is vital that progress on limiting emissions of carbon dioxide and short-lived climate pollutants, such as methane and black carbon, is monitored. Governments must be held accountable for meeting their nationally determined contributions towards global cuts in emissions, and incentivised to go further. Climate change poses major threats to human health but policies to reduce emissions have great potential to improve health in the near-term, including by reducing air pollution and encouraging dietary changes. A new international initiative aims to provide more crucial information on the relationship between climate change and health..."
DC Prepares For Heat Emergencies To Nearly Double by 2020, Among Other Climate Change Effects. Here's a clip from DCist: "...D.C. currently experiences around 11 heat emergency days per year, which could almost double to 20 days by 2020 and spike up to 75 days by 2080, according to the report. Washingtonians should also expect much warmer average temperatures; longer, hotter, and more frequent heat waves; and more frequent and intense heavy rain and flooding. The city has already begun to see record-breaking heat waves and snowstorms as well as flooding caused by rising sea levels and high rainfall. Climate Ready DC, the city's readiness plan, looks at current weather patterns and predicts how they will change by 2080. The report, which was developed by consulting with experts inside and outside of District government, then outlines the city's strategies to adapt..." Photo credit: SweetJen34