Turn Back The Clocks - Temperatures Still Feels Like September

Twin Cities Climate Stat Pack From November 5th (through 7 PM)

High Saturday: 73 (Sets new November 5th record - previous: 71 in 2001)

Low Saturday Morning: 43

Precipitation: 0.00"

Rainfall since January 1st: 35.20" (+7.22" from average)

Snowfall: 0"

Snowfall since September 1st: 0" (-1.4" from average)

Other cities that saw records tied/fall Saturday:

• St. Cloud: 72 (tied record also set in 1975)
• Duluth: 70 (previous record: 68 in 1975)
• Rochester: 71 (previous record: 70 in 1893)
• Fargo, ND: 72 (previous record: 70 in 1975)
• Eau Claire, WI: 72 (previous record: 68 in 1975 and 1924)

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Warm Start To November
I went walking around a local lake Friday, and the first through that popped in my mind was, "this is great September weather." Too bad it is November. Climatologist Mark Seeley has more on the warm start to the month in his weekly WeatherTalk blog: "Most climate stations in the state are reporting daily temperatures that range from 8 to 15 degrees F above normal for the first few days of November. This pattern is expected to persist well into the month, and may approach the record warmest first half of November which dates back to 2001 That year was the only time the Twin Cities saw daily temperatures average above 50°F for the whole first half of November. Everybody is asking when the other shoe will drop. Perhaps not until the 16th or 17th."
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149 Days At/Above 70 This Year In The Twin Cities

Saturday's high of 73 marked the 149th day at or above 70 degrees so far in 2016. That's the second most we've ever seen in the Twin Cities, only behind 1900 which saw 155 days. While the current forecast won't have us breaking that record, there is another record from 1900 we will break over the next few days. That was the year of the latest first 32 degree reading on record, set on November 7th. We've yet to hit 32 this fall in the Twin Cities, and the forecast would have our first one at least a week away at the minimum.
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Twin Cities Election Day Weather

Tuesday is Election Day! The Minnesota Climatology Office put together some past Presidential Election Day Weather for the Twin Cities. The warmest was back in 2008 with a high of 71. Highs this year will be in the upper 50s with mainly sunny skies. Here's a quick look at past Presidential Election Day Weather for the Twin Cities:

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Recent Warm Temperatures Delaying Fall Fertilizer Application

Here's an interesting side effect from our continued warm weather across the region - soil temperatures are still too warm for fertilizer application across much of the state. Read more from the Minnesota Department of Agriculture: "The Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) advises farmers and fertilizer applicators to check soil temperatures before fall application of ammonium-based nitrogen fertilizers. Warm weather this season has kept soil temperatures around the state from dropping below 50˚ F, the recommended temperature to apply nitrogen and avoid fertilizer loss. On average, soil temperatures reach 50˚ F during the first week in October in northern Minnesota and the fourth week of October in southern Minnesota. However, that has not happened this year, with soil temps remaining above 50˚ F in many parts of the state."
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Turn Back The Clocks - Still Feels Like September
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas
I hope you remembered to turn back your clock overnight as we reentered standard time at 2 AM early this morning. This may be a bright spot to you early risers! Today's sunrise is at 6:59 AM - the first sunrise before 7 AM since September 20th. However, enjoy this pre-7 AM sunrise while it lasts - today is also the last sunrise before 7 AM until we reach February 24th.
The bad part about shifting back to standard time? The return of the really early sunset. Just a few days ago we saw our first sunset before 6 PM of the fall, but as of today our sunset is now before 5 PM and keeps getting earlier until early December. It's just one of the downsides as we head into the winter season.
Even though we turned back the clocks, it's still going to feel more like late September as we head through the day today. Highs will climb to near 70 with mainly sunny skies. While temps will be cooler heading into the work week, we will still be above average for this time of year. Continue to enjoy the warmth while it lasts!

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Extended Forecast for Minneapolis

SUNDAY: One more day near 70. Mainly sunny. High 68. Low 48. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Chance of an afternoon shower. High 61. Low 45. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Some passing clouds for Election Day. High 57. Low 42. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind N 3-7 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Another fine November day. Partly cloudy skies. High 59. Low 44. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 3-7 mph.

THURSDAY: A dry cool front passes through. Sunny skies. High 58. Low 44. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Cooler weather for Veterans Day. Partly cloudy. High 51. Low 38. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Morning clouds. Afternoon sunshine. High 49. Low 39. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
November 6th

1993: Heavy lake effect snow falls over the eastern portion of Lake of the Woods. 3-4 inches around Baudette.
1947: A snowstorm moves through Minnesota with high winds, causing a million dollars in damage.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
November 6th

Average High: 47F (Record: 73F set in 1893)
Average Low: 31F (Record: 0F set in 1991)
Average Precipitation: 0.06" (Record: 1.54" set in 2000)
Average Snow: 0.2" (Record: 1.6" in 1933)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 6th

Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 54 minutes and 40 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 39 seconds

*Next Sunrise That Is After 7 AM: November 7th (7:01 am)

*Earliest Sunset Of The Year: December 9th (4:31 pm)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

I feel like a broken record - it's going to be warm again Sunday across the region (shocker). Highs will range in the 60s and low 70s across most of the state.

Who doesn't love temperatures 15-30 degrees above average in the beginning of November? Highs once again Sunday will be far above average for this time of year... and the warmth looks to continue into the work week.

While the warmth does continue, it won't be "as warm" as it has been this weekend as we head into next week, with highs only in the 50s and low 60s. The coolest weather of the next week looks to be as we head toward Veterans Day and next weekend, with highs closer to 50. Cooler weather does look to be in store for the middle of the month as a batch of cold air finally moves south out of Canada.

Precipitation chances through Wednesday are slim across the region, with the only chance of rain being a 20% chance here in the Twin Cities on Monday. Any rain will be light - mainly under a tenth of an inch.

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National Weather Stories

As we head into Sunday, heavy rain will be possible across the Pacific Northwest as another front moves onshore. Showers and storms will be possible across the mid-section of the country, with even some mountain snow possible in the Colorado Rockies. Parts of northern New England could see some rain and snow, while some showers pop across Florida.

New England will once again be the cool spot of the nation Sunday with highs only in the 30s and 40s, meanwhile 70s will stretch as far north as the upper Midwest. 90s will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest.

While parts of New England, the Southern Plains and West Coast deal with temperatures a touch below average for this time of year, the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains will bask in weather that is 15-30 degrees above average for this time of year.

The heaviest rain through Wednesday will be across parts of the Pacific Northwest and in the Southern Plains, with totals could easily top two inches.
Election Day Forecast

As you head out to vote Tuesday, you may encounter some showers across the Pacific Northwest and in the Northeast. Meanwhile, some storms will be possible across the Southern Plains, maybe stretching into the Southeast.

Highs Tuesday will range from the 50s across the north to the 80s across the south. Some 90s will be possible across the Desert Southwest.
Southeast Drought Continues

Drought expanded once again this week across the Southeast. As of the Thursday update, 51.9% of Alabama is under at least D3 (extreme) drought, and 14.8% is under D4 (exceptional) drought - the worst category of drought. In Georgia, 39.6% of the state is under at least D3 drought, and 14% is under D4 drought. This is on the back on very little (and in some cases, no) rain over the past month.

I wrote for AerisWeather about some of the dry weather last month across the Southeast. These are some of the cities that saw no rainfall during the month of October (for more on extreme weather last month, including excessive rain and record highs, click here):

• Birmingham, AL – 0.00″ (driest October on record)
• Colorado Springs, CO – 0.00″ (driest October on record)
• El Paso, TX – 0.00″ (driest October on record)
• Mobile, AL – 0.00″ (driest October on record) – only the second overall month on record with no precipitation falling
• Pensacola, FL – 0.00″ (driest October on record)

Unfortunately, we would need a lot of precipitation to end the drought across the region. Almost all of northern Alabama and Georgia would need at least 10" of rain to end the drought - some areas would need over 16"!
The Great Salt Lake Is Drying Up

Due to recent drought and a changing climate, the Great Salt Lake is drying up. Take a look at the two images above taken 5 years apart, showing exposed lake bed in Farmington Bay. More from the NASA Earth Observatory: "Five years of drought in the American West have contributed to the recent drop in the water line, as have higher-than-normal temperatures. But the region has seen dry cycles before, and according to scientists, there has not been a significant long-term change in precipitation in the basin. Nonetheless, the volume of water in Great Salt Lake has shrunk by 48 percent and the lake level has fallen 3.4 meters (11 feet) since 1847."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser