Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.
Saturday, February 4, 2017
Spotty Spasms of Winter - Typical Weather for March Brewing
35 F. maximum temperature on Saturday at MSP International Airport. 26 F. average high on February 4. 27 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities on February 4, 2016.
February 5, 1834: Unseasonably mild temperatures are felt at Ft. Snelling with a high of 51.
Flashes of Winter - Then An Early March
Handicapping
snowstorms now is like predicting how the Vikings will do next season.
"Well, on paper they have a good team, but with injuries and unknown
draft picks....who really knows?" So it goes with mythic snowstorms.
"Well, on paper it's February in Minnesota. It SHOULD snow. But arctic
air has retreated north, we're starting from a warmer baseline, a mild
Pacific flow dominates..."
I feel like a weatherman in Louisville.
Warmer
winters mean more rain and ice than we had in the 1970s and 80s. A
generation ago it was consistently cold enough for mostly-snow, at least from December thru February. Until
March, when we would star to see a sloppy mix.
March comes early now. ECMWF guidance predicts highs near 50 F. within 12 days.
With bare ground more of the sun's energy can go into heating up the
air, not melting snow. We're a lock for 40s and I wouldn't be surprised
to see 50 degrees. By the way, 50 F. is the average high on April 1.
Expect cool sun today; 40 degrees Monday, then a mix changing to snow Tuesday PM with a few inches Tuesday night.
A bad impersonation of a snowstorm? Just enough to remind you it's still winter. Parhelia file photo: AerisWeather meteorologist Todd Nelson. More Active Pattern Brewing.
After a relatively quiet couple of days brewing storms look a little
more impressive, especially on the west coast of the USA; more heavy
rain for northern California with slushy snow accumulation as far north
as Seattle. Super Bowl snow showers are likely across New England; a
Tuesday storm for the Upper Midwest may start as ice but a changeover to
snow is likely with potentially plowable amounts. 84-hour 12 KM NAM
solution: NOAA and Tropicaltidbits.com.
This
Is Still Early February, Right? I got confused gazing at this (ECMWF)
15-day temperature outlook, which looks like something out of late
March. Despite a few cold days the middle of next week (following
Tuesday's alleged storm) temperatures trend 10-20F. above average for
much of the next 2 weeks. 50 degrees on the 17th? A stretch but I
certainly wouldn't rule it out. Graphic: WeatherBell. Plowable Snow Event Tuesday Minnesota to Michigan?
I wouldn't get too excited yet. Precipitation may start as a mix of ice
before changing over to all-snow Tuesday PM. Even so I could still see
enough slushy snow to shovel and plow from the Twin Cities and Duluth to
Green Bay and Marquette.
Wildly Divergent Snow Forecasts.
Earlier runs were only predicting a couple inches of slush on Tuesday
but 18z and 00z forecasts printed out closer to 4 or 5" in the Twin
Cities. Since Old Man Winter often finds a new and creative way to cheat
us out of snow I'm forcing myself to be skeptical this time around.
Confidence levels are low, but yes, there should be a few inches of
(rare) snow Tuesday - and it may be enough to shovel and plow, and
temporarily appease snow-lovers. Graphic: Iowa State.
We Seem To Have Skipped a Month.
If this 500 mb (18,000 feet) forecast verifies from NOAA's GFS model
unseasonable warmth will stretch from the central Plains into interior
Canada. Once the snow melts temperatures may rise into the 50s, even 60s
as far north as Omaha and Sioux City by mid-month. Freakish for
mid-February? You 'betcha! The forecast looks cold for New England with
more storms for California and the Pacific Northwest. There will be cold
relapses, but it's looking more and more like an early spring for much
of the USA.
River Forecasters Keeping Watch Over the Red River. The Star Tribune reports on the potential for river flooding from Fargo and Moorhead to Grand Rapids this spring: "...With
spring’s thaw only weeks away, communities along the Red River are
keeping a wary eye on the flood forecast. After a long dry stretch, the
region has been soaked with double the usual amount of winter rain,
sleet and snow, prompting the National Weather Service to recently issue
an early warning about potential spring floods.
The Red has flooded in 50 of the past 111 years, although in recent
springs, it has stayed largely within its banks, keeping flood-prone
communities from breaking out the sandbags. If that changes this spring,
Minnesota officials say they’re ready, after years spent shoring up
their flood defenses..."
File photo from Fargo in 2009. Image courtesy of Brian Petersen, Star Tribune.
"A Warm Streak Without Precedent". Dr. Mark Seeley explains in this week's edition of Minnesota WeatherTalk: "...According to Kenny Blumenfeld of the DNR-State Climatology Office and Michelle Margraf of the NOAA-National Weather Service
in Chanhassen the warm temperature anomaly in the Twin Cities from
September of 2015 through January of 2017 is without precedent......17
consecutive months of above normal temperature surpasses the streaks of
16 months during 2011-2012, and 15 months during 2005-2006 and 1920-1921...." (Graphic credit: Minnesota DNR).
The Amazing Improvements in Winter Weather Forecasting Since the 1970s.
It's not perfect, it never will be, but the forecast is considerably
(measurably) better than it was a generation ago. Here's an excerpt from
Capital Weather Gang: "Winter
storm forecasting has changed significantly since the 1970s, for the
better. Technology and a better fundamental understanding of the
atmosphere have been the main drivers behind the improvement, but
there’s another reason your favorite meteorologist — on TV or on the web
— can nail a winter storm forecast five days out: the Internet. With
the click of a mouse, anyone can access the same weather models that in
the past were only available to government forecasters. With all of
these advances, a winter storm forecast three days out in 2017 is
arguably as accurate as one that was around one day away in the 1980s.
Meteorologists anywhere can now access weather models that in the past
were only available to government employees and TV stations that had
special weather data fax machines. Everyone can look at the models,
which have come light years in the past two decades..."
Photo credit: "The Presidents’ Day Snowstorm of February 18-19, 1979." (Washington Weather).
Worst NFL Championship Weather Ever? AerisWeather meteorologist Joe Hansel has a terrific post about weather as a factor in big NFL games; here's an excerpt: "...To find the chilliest-most-‘freezingy’ NFL Championship… we have to go back to December 31st, 1967. If you call yourself a BIG football fan… you already know I’m talking about the Ice Bowl.
It so happens to be the 50th anniversary of this game. That’s kinda
cool… or in this case, extremely cold. Broadcaster Jack Buck when asked,
said “it was very cold, Ray.” Beautifully put in its sarcastic
simplicity. Commentator Frank Gifford didn’t need to wear a hat though: video HERE. It was the frostiest game in history… but fans still cheered in this video HERE. At historic Lambeau Field. We got 2 historic franchises playing for the NFL Championship prize. Packersvs. Cowboys.
Vince Lombardi vs. Tom Landry. This is about as epic as a game gets for
back in the day (Also, I don’t think I’m personally old enough to say
‘back in the day’ yet)..."
Photo credit: "They’re having fun!" Source: http://www.profootballhof.com/football-history/the-ice-bowl/
Football Goes Green. A few interesting nuggets at Huffington Post: "...The
trend towards sustainability isn’t just a postseason phenomenon. In
recent years, the NFL has become an unlikely champion of renewable
energy, teaming up with the Environmental Protection Agency, Natural
Resources Defense Council and other environmental organizations to
monitor its clean energy initiatives. In 2015, nearly one-third
of NFL teams played or trained at solar-equipped facilities, according
to the Solar Energy Industries Association. That figure includes a
couple ofstandouts,
like Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachucets. The complex boasts
some 3,000 solar panels — enough to power office buildings and stadium
lights on days without a game. Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field features 11,000 solar panels and 14 wind turbines, the most of any stadium..." (Photo credit: Lincoln Financial Field, DLR Group).
Subscale Glider Could Assist in Weather Studies, Predictions. NASA has an interesting post; here's the intro: "More
accurate, immediate and economical information on severe weather
phenomenon like hurricanes could one day be available thanks to the
Weather Hazard Alert and Awareness Technology Radiation Radiosonde
(WHAATRR) Glider. Students and Armstrong staff have been developing the
glider based on the Prandtl-M aircraft to fly in the atmosphere of Mars.
The vehicle could potentially save the National Weather Service up to
$15 million a year compared to current methods and with faster and more
reliable data, said project manager Scott Wiley. Employees across the
centers agree the idea could take off and voted for it during the NASA
Agency Innovation Mission (AIM) Day Nov. 1 for a NASA Innovation Kick
Start (NIKS) grant. Also winning a NIKS grant with Armstrong
participation was the Agency Legal Enterprise Capability for Knowledge
Sharing (ALECKS), the idea of a common NASA legal database including
discussions, forums, news and updates..."
Photo credit: "The
Preliminary Research Aerodynamic Design to Land on Mars, or Prandtl-M,
flies during a test flight. A new proposal based on the aircraft
recently won an agencywide technology grant." Credits: NASA Photo / Lauren Hughes.
The Surprising Link Between Air Pollution and Alzheimer's Disease. The Los Angeles Times reports: "With
environmental regulations expected to come under heavy fire from the
Trump administration, new research offers powerful evidence of a link
between air pollution and dementia
risk. For older women, breathing air that is heavily polluted by
vehicle exhaust and other sources of fine particulates nearly doubles
the likelihood of developing dementia, finds a study
published Tuesday. And the cognitive effects of air pollution are
dramatically more pronounced in women who carry a genetic variant, known
as APOE-e4, which puts them at higher risk for developing Alzheimer’s
disease. In a nationwide study that tracked the cognitive health of
women between the ages of 65 and 79 for 10 years, those who had the
APOE-e4 variant were nearly three times more likely to develop dementia
if they were exposed to high levels of air pollution than APOE-e4
carriers who were not..."
A Modern Black Death in Kentucky's Mountains. Black lung disease is getting worse, reports OZY: "...That’s
about twice as many as the total reported nationally during the 1990s.
The rise is unprecedented in modern history, with one in 20 Appalachian
workers now likely to get pneumoconiosis after a career in the mines,
according to data
reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and compiled
by a Kentucky-based radiologist. “This data shows that the scope of the
disease is unprecedented and horrendous,” says Wes Addington, deputy
director at the Appalachian Citizens’ Law Center in Whitesburg,
Kentucky. He has seen an increase of five to six times the number of
black lung complications from 2011 to 2016..."
Profits? Nice, But For These Investors Conscience Matters More. The New York Times reports: "...Passion
investors spurn such accommodations. They are driven by a belief in the
primacy of a cause — animal rights, climate change, reducing waste —
and try to apply that desire to all investment types. It’s not easy. “I
have a conversation about this quite often,” said Mark Doman, chief
executive of the Doman Group, an investment adviser.
“Clients talk about how their ethics and morality guide their
portfolio. I tell them it’s a very slippery slope to find companies that
meet their ethical bar while keeping in mind their goal is to grow
their assets.” Mr. Doman added, “If you can find me a morally and
ethically pure blue-chip company, that’s more the exception than the
rule...”
Working on a Cruise Ship is a Good Job - Until It Isn't. Here's an excerpt of a sobering, harrowing story at The California Sunday Magazine: "...Since
Regie started his job, the number of cruise employees has more than
doubled to nearly a quarter million. Amid the boom, many describe
systemic wage theft and 80-hour workweeks with no days off for eight to
ten months at a time. Many also say they are pressured to keep working
when injured. Dozens of interviews, hundreds of pages of legal
documents, and photographic evidence corroborate these claims. Although
crew members have lodged complaints against all three of the major
cruise companies, employees of Carnival Cruise Line speak of some of the
harshest conditions. Most of these allegations, though, are sent to
foreign arbitration and hidden from public view..."
Photo credit: Kevin Kunishi.
How to Reset Your Body Clock - And Get Better Sleep - With Hiking Boots and a Tent. Getting outside can help in so many ways, including helping your sleep habits, according to a story at The Los Angeles Times: "...Wright
thinks there are two reasons a sojourn in nature can reset our
biological clocks, and both have to do with light. His group found that
on the winter camping trip participants were exposed to 13 times more
light than they usually are when they go about their normal lives. In
addition, the winter campers were not allowed to use flashlights or
electronic devices during the weeklong camping trip. That meant that
when darkness fell, the only light they saw was from their campfires. He
said that both the increased light during the day and lack of light
during the night played a role in realigning the circadian clocks. “A
lot of people think about light at night and recognize it is not the
best thing, but our research has shown that the reduction in light we
get during the day is equally important,” he said..."
SATURDAY: Cloudy, turning a little cooler. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 29. High: 38
Climate Stories...
An Independent Study Confirms NOAA's Conclusion that the Earth is Getting Warmer. Here's an excerpt from PRI, Public Radio International: "A
new analysis of sea surface temperatures from an independent source
corroborates updated global warming data released in 2015 by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The results contradict
allegations from some Republicans on Capitol Hill that NOAA manipulated
its 2015 data to show continuous global warming, since earlier NOAA
research had suggested the Earth was experiencing a warming "pause" or
hiatus. Between 1998 and 2012, NOAA research based on sea surface
temperatures seemed to suggest that average global temperatures were not
rising. This data did not support the theory of climate change, and
skeptics were quick to use these figures as proof that global warming
was a "hoax"...
Photo credit: "An Argo float being
raised out of the Bellingshausen Sea is shown here. Argo floats are
robotic instruments that measure ocean data and transmit it to
satellites." Credit: fruchtzwerg's world/Flickr
Spotted in Washington: Conservatives Supporting Climate Action. Christian Science Monitor has details: "...Even
as climate change is essentially absent from the priority list of
President Trump and the Republican-led Congress, a meaningful number of
conservatives in America support the idea of reducing heat-trapping
gasses in the atmosphere. “You’re not going to convince 100 percent of
the world,” Aparna Mathur, an American Enterprise Institute economist
who was part of the panel, said after the event. But she sees a
shrinking number of conservatives who oppose a carbon policy. By some
measures, she may be right. In March 2016, a Gallup survey found
40 percent of Republicans saying they worry a “great deal” or “fair
amount” about the issue. That was up from 31 percent in a poll the
previous year. Even so, of course, support for climate action is hardly
an influential viewpoint in GOP politics..."
Photo credit: "Not
that long ago, the Republican Party had a presidential nominee who
supported action to combat global warming. Above, candidate Sen. John
McCain of Arizona talks about the issue in 2008 in North Bend, Wash.,
(flanked by former Washington Gov. Dan Evans). Polls show that many
Republicans support climate action." Elaine Thompson/AP/File.
Fewer Days Below 32 F. Here's an excerpt from Climate Central: "Warmer
winters may sound great at first — fewer icy roads, less scraping your
car — but milder weather has some major downsides. Everything from
agriculture to wildlife to human health can be seriously impacted.
Warmer winters also pose serious economic consequences in many states
reliant on revenue from winter sports and recreation. The number of days
below 32°F in the U.S. has been declining. As the map above — adapted
from a 2016 Journal of Climate paper — demonstrates, this trend is
projected to continue, threatening many of the winter activities that
rely on cold conditions, including skiing, snowmobiling, ice fishing,
and outdoor ice hockey..."
Bob Inglis: Unmasking the Deceit Over Climate Change.
Former U.S. Congressman Bob Inglis from South Carolina is a friend and a
fellow conservationist and Republican who acknowledges that climate
change is real - and we have a moral obligation to act, empowering
markets - trying to reach bipartisan consensus on economy-empowering
solutions that generate jobs and growth, while turning down the dial on
carbon pollution. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed he wrote for The Greenville Journal: "...We believe in the power of markets. We believe in accountable free enterprise. We
believe that firms should compete in transparent marketplaces where all
costs (including external, “social” costs) are attached to all products
and all subsidies are removed. We believe that
the government should function as the honest cop-on-the beat who makes
domestic and foreign firms alike bear all of the costs created by the
sale of their products in the American market. We believe in the power of price signals like the ones Milton Friedman taught. We
believe in the liberty of enlightened self-interest and in the
innovation that can come from a world of consumers seeking clean energy. We don’t believe in the growth of government..."
Climate and Security: Steering the Ship of State Through Uncertain Waters. Here's an excerpt from the Center for Climate & Security: "...These
are trends that will likely continue, regardless of shifting political
dynamics. These are issues that political leaders will seek to shape and
manage, but will not be able to eliminate. Indeed, climate change is
happening without concern for who is in power. Just as it’s impossible
to dispute the existence of nuclear weapons, and the threat nuclear
proliferation poses to all nations, the reality of a rapidly-changing
climate is here to stay. The Arctic is melting, the seas are rising, and
wildfires and droughts are becoming more severe. This is the existing
global reality. If tomorrow’s leaders don’t recognize and deal with this
underlying trend– distracted as they are by the turbulence of daily
events – we are likely to miss critical threats to national, regional
and international security..." Cold Getting Less Cold. Climate Central takes a look at the larger trends: "For
many locations in the U.S., middle-to-late January is climatologically
the coldest time of the year. But extreme cold is on the decline as the
world warms from increasing greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil
fuels. This week’s analysis examines the coldest night each year in
these cities. Even though we will continue to see cold outbreaks in a
warming world, the trend in the vast majority of the cities analyzed
shows that these extreme cold nights are happening less often.
Conversely, as cold extremes continue to become fewer and less intense,
hot extremes become stronger and more frequent..." Pentagon: Arctic Melt Requires Updated U.S. Strategy. Climate Home reports on the jaw-dropping changes in the arctic, and how the military is trying to respond: "...An
updated US military strategy for the Arctic says “diminishing ice
levels” due to warming temperatures pose a series of security risks to
the country. Released this week at the request of Alaska senator Dan
Sullivan, a Republican, the 16-page document
says the US must boost investment in its military assets around the
North Pole. “Diminishing sea ice will give rise to new economic
opportunities in the region while simultaneously increasing concerns
about human safety and protection of a unique ecosystem that many
indigenous communities rely on for subsistence,” reads the Arctic
Strategy. “The breaking up of sea ice also threatens existing detection
and warning infrastructure by increasing the rate of coastal erosion...”
Photo credit: "US National Guard troops in Utiqiagvik, Alaska." (Pic: Staff Sgt. Balinda O’Neal Dresel/US Army National Guard).
"Watching With Bated Breath": Massive Iceberg Set To Break Off Antarctic Ice Sheet. USA TODAY has the story: "It's
the crack that's captivating the world. A 110-mile-long rift in an
Antarctic ice shelf promises to eventually shear off and create a
massive iceberg larger than Rhode Island. For now, it's
fascinating scientists, gamblers and the public worldwide. Everyone
wants to know when part of the Larsen C ice shelf will finally break
off, fundamentally changing the landscape of the Antarctic Peninsula.
The short answer: It could take days to years. But the iceberg is most
likely to break free within the next few months because of the
overwhelming weight the 110 miles of already separated ice is placing on
the 12 miles that remains connected to the shelf, said Adrian Luckman
of Project MIDAS, a British Antarctic research project that's keeping
watch on the ever-growing crack..."
Photo credit: "This Nov. 10, 2016, aerial photo released by NASA, shows a rift in the Antarctic Peninsula's Larsen C ice shelf." (Photo: John Sonntag, AP)
The Lasting Effects of Pope Francis' Climate Change Edict. Here's a clip from Pacific Standard: "...But newly published research
suggests the pontiff’s call for taking care of the Earth has had a more
subtle impact on American public opinion. It finds brief exposure to a
photograph of the pope “increased perceptions of climate change as a
moral issue.” What’s more, this shift in how the issue is
perceived was particularly strong among Republicans — a group that has
traditionally been resistant to acknowledging the fact that humans are
affecting the Earth’s climate in dangerous ways..." (File photo: AP).
The EPA Has Started to Remove Obama-Era Information. Climate Central reports: "The Environmental Protection Agency’s website has begun to transform under the Trump administration. A group of researchers have found what are likely the first steps in a major overhaul of a site that’s been closely watched
since President Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. Federal climate plans
created under former President Obama, tribal assistance programs, and
references to international cooperation have been stricken from the
site. A mention of carbon pollution as a cause of climate change has
also been removed and adaptation has been emphasized, indicating an
attempt to separate the cause of climate change from the response. Some
of the changes — like removing mentions to programs and task forces that
have run their course as well as broken links — are
housekeeping, according to an agency statement..."
Image credit: "There
have been extensive revisions made to the EPA's climate collaboration
page, including removing language about carbon pollution." Credit: EDGI. The March For Science Isn't Partisan or Anti-Trump - It's Pro-Facts. Quartz reports: "...First came the Women’s March. Now comes the March for Science.
Given the ongoing protests sweeping the US, one might assume that
scientists are organizing to voice their general disagreement with
Donald Trump’s policies—or perhaps that they simply want to protect
their grants and jobs from federal funding cuts. But what’s at stake is
much bigger than funding. It’s true that the US spends more on science than any other country. This long-term commitment has led to the US being awarded more Nobel Prizes than any other nation, with the majority of the 365 prizes being awarded for physics. The US also publishes more scientific papers than any other nation—twice
as many as China, which ranks second. But scientists in the US and
around the world are not mobilizing to defend themselves. Rather, they
are fighting to protect the fundamental role that science plays in
society and government..."
Image credit: "When the government starts trying to stifle science, you know the stakes are high."(NASA/Public Domain).
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