27 F. maximum temperature at Twin Cities International Airport yesterday.
40 F. average high on March 13.
54 F. high on March 13, 2016.
March 14, 1943:
Snow, sleet and ice cripple parts of Minnesota south of a line from
Duluth through St. Cloud and Ortonville. The heaviest ice was in the
vicinities of Lake Benton, Springfield and Windom. Ice thickness was 1/2
to 3/4 inch around St. Cloud to 3/4 to 2 inches in the Pipestone,
Ruthton, Lake Wilson, Slayton and Tracy. A good description of the ice
was submitted in one report: '…ice was 2 inches across and 1 3/4 inch
deep on wire. A little frost ice near the wire with the outside solid
ice. The ice was irregular in shape.' Duluth had 6 inches of snowfall at
the city office with 13 inches at the airport. The ice was confined to
Moose Lake and south.
March 14, 1870:
A severe snow and wind storm moves across Minnesota and Iowa. The
'Northern Vindicator' of Estherville, Iowa becomes the first newspaper
to use the term 'blizzard' on this date.
Potentially Historic Blizzard Shuts Down NortheastMeteorologists
are prone to pangs of jealousy. You see, we all want the most
interesting, peculiar weather to show up over our respective cities. It
gives us something to babble about - it makes us feel important.
So
you can only imagine how much I'd like to be in New York City or Boston
today. A late-season blizzard will drop snow at a rate of 2-3
inches/hour with thunder and lightning; winds topping 50 mph creating
hour after hour of white-out conditions. The northeast will effectively
shut down for the next 48 hours.
According to FiveThirtyEight New
York has seen only 5 snowstorms of a foot or more in March or April
since 1870. California just had the wettest winter in 122 years; now a
super-sized blizzard for New England? There's more water in the air -
more fuel for blizzards and floods.
We've had our (3-inch) drama
here at home. Take a mental snapshot of the snow in your yard - it'll
be gone within 2 days. 40s return Thursday with 50s early next week.
Models suggest a mild, Pacific breeze into late March.
Spring won't come as early as 2012, but 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule.
Image above: ECMWF (European) forecast of snow totals, courtesy of WeatherBell.
Winter Storm Severity Index.
Here's another way of assessing total impacts from a given winter
storm: snow, ice, wind, power outage potential, all wrapped up in one
(prototype) scale, but you get the general idea.
This may be an
historic blizzard from Lancaster and Harrisburg to Allentown,
Wilkes-Barre, New York City, Hartford and Worcester, MA. Details and obligatory disclaimer from
NOAA: "
Feedback
from this prototype will be used to evaluate potential product
development. The purpose of the Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) is to
provide NWS partners and the general public with an indication of the
level of winter precipitation (snow and ice) severity and its potential
related societal impacts. The WSSI does not depict official warnings,
and should always be used in context with official NWS forecasts and
warnings. Because this is a prototype, it may not update in a timely
fashion. Always check the creation and valid times..."
Blowing Snow Component.
NOAA's WSSI prototype predicts the most severe blowing and drifting
from eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey to Long Island,
coastal New England and Cape Cod.
Bracing for a Blizzard, Officials Close Schools and Stop Trains. No, this won't be just another garden-variety snowstorm. Details via
The New York Times.
20+" for New York City? More details on preparation and likely impacts
here.
There is Nothing Normal About the Snowstorm About to Slam the East Coast.
Mother Jones puts 20-inch snowfalls into cold, stark perspective: "...
If
you live on the East Coast, you might have become complacent about epic
snowstorms like this one. Twenty inches or so doesn't seem like such a
big deal when you've lived through similar storms. But looking at the data,
you'll see that 20-inch snowstorms are a relatively new phenomenon in
places like New York City. For the first 100 years that meteorologists
kept weather records at Central Park, from 1869 through 1996, they
recorded just two snowstorms that dumped 20 inches or more. But since
1996, counting this week's storm, there have been six. (You'll find similar stats for other major East Coast cities.)..."
"Blizzard Alley" Runs From Long Island to Cape Cod.
Perhaps it's no surprise, but proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and less
friction near the water increases wind speeds and the potential to
exceed blizzard criteria (35 mph winds + 1/4 mile or less visibility in
falling or blowing snow).
Praedictix Briefing:
Issued Monday, March 13
th, 2017
* The largest snowstorm of the season – and potentially a historic March system – will impact Washington D.C. to Boston
Monday Night through
Wednesday.
* The worst of the storm will come
Tuesday
from Philadelphia to New York City and Boston, with snowfall rates of
2-4” per hour, strong winds (30-60 mph gusts) and white-out conditions.
* Forecast snow totals: 5-10” Washington D.C., with a foot or more of snow from Philadelphia to New York, Boston and into Maine.
Heavy Snow Moves In Tonight. A strengthening low pressure center will move up the east coast as we head through
Tuesday,
bringing with it heavy snow (potentially 2-4” per hour at the height of
the storm) as well as 30-60 mph winds. Wintry precipitation will start
this evening in areas like Washington D.C. and Philadelphia, with snow
spreading into New York City and Boston during the overnight hours. Snow
will continue through the day before pushing out to the northeast
through the afternoon and into
Tuesday Night.
Winter Storm And Blizzard Warnings. Winter
Storm and Blizzard Warnings have been issued from Virginia and West
Virginia through most areas of the Northeast ahead of this nor’easter,
with a wide swath of at least 6” of snow expected across the region.
Some of the heaviest totals will be near/along I-95, with over a foot
possible. Strong, gusty winds up to 60 mph will be possible with this
system as well, especially near the coast. Blizzard Warnings have been
issued for parts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut due to these
concerns.
Blizzard Watch – Boston.
While Boston is currently under the Winter Storm Warning, a Blizzard
Watch is also in effect for the likelihood of wind gusts up to 55 mph
tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Snowfall Forecast. Some
of the heaviest totals are expected along the I-95 corridor through the
middle of the week, with totals of a foot or more likely from
Philadelphia northward into Maine. Washington D.C. is expected to get
5-10” of snow, with the potential of some mixed precipitation helping to
cut totals down a little bit. A mix/change over to rain will also be
possible along parts of eastern Long Island and Cape Cod, reducing
overall snow totals.
New York City Snowfall Forecast. Our internal models are showing the potential of over a foot and a half of snow within the New York City metro through
Tuesday. During the height of the storm
Tuesday,
snowfall rates could be as high as 4” per hour. This, along with wind
gusts up to 55 mph, will cause white-out conditions and paralyze travel
across the region.
NWS Most Likely Snowfall Totals. Based on NOAA guidance, here are the most likely snowfall totals for more select cities:
Washington, D.C.:
Philadelphia, PA:
New York, NY:
Boston, MA:
Portland, ME:
Caribou, ME:
Wind Gusts Of 30-60 MPH. As
the system deepens off the coast, winds will be on the increase along
and near the coast, with wind gusts up to 55 mph possible across some
areas. These winds, along with the heavily falling snow, will be enough
to cause blizzard/white-out conditions. Wind damage (especially to tree
branches where some budding has begun) and power outages can't be ruled
out with this storm. The highest winds gusts with this system are
expected in:
- Washington, D.C.: Midnight – 10 am Tuesday
- Philadelphia: 4 am – 4 pm Tuesday
- New York City: 4 am Tuesday – 1 am Wednesday
- Boston: 9 am Tuesday – 1 am Wednesday
High Potential Of Blizzard Conditions. The Blizzard Potential Index shows a high likelihood of blizzard conditions occurring
tonight into
Tuesday across the Northeast. Some of the worst conditions in New York City will be during the morning into the midday hours
Tuesday, spreading across the Boston metro by the afternoon.
Summary: Winter is quickly coming back to the Northeast over the next 24-48 hours, with a foot or more of snow likely through
Tuesday Night for areas from Philadelphia to New York City and Boston. Snow will begin
tonight
across the region, so preparations should be completed today for this
upcoming system that will not only bring heavy snow with it (potentially
falling at 2-4” per hour during the height of the storm) but wind gusts
of 30-60 mph with it as well. Operations will likely be heavily
impacted
Monday Night into
Wednesday from this storm. Travel will be nearly impossible across parts of the Northeast
Tuesday, and some power outages are likely.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, AerisWeather
One of the Biggest Late-Season Snowstorms on Record?
Certainly for New York City; 1-2 feet of snow in mid-March is
exceedingly rare. Even our blizzards are super-sized now. Here's an
excerpt at
FiveThirtyEight that made me do a double-take: "...
There
have been just five snowstorms of 12 inches or greater in March or
April since record keeping started in 1870. More amazingly, none of them
have happened in the past 57 years and just one of those happened at
this point in March or later. That storm, back in 1896, dropped 12
inches. So as long as this storm has just slightly more snow than is
predicted at the lower end of the forecast range, it will be the
greatest snowstorm this late in the season in recorded New York City
history. If the snowfall hits the upper end of the forecast range, this
storm will challenge the infamous Blizzard of 1888 for the largest March or April storm ever..."
On This Day: The 1993 "Storm of the Century". I remember it well. Here's an excerpt from NOAA NCEI, the
National Centers for Environmental Information: "
On
March 11–14, 1993, a massive storm system bore down on nearly half of
the U.S. population. Causing approximately $5.5 billion in damages ($9.2
billion in 2016 dollars), America’s “Storm of the Century,” as it would
become known, swept from the Deep South all the way up the East Coast.
With a central pressure usually found only in Category 3 hurricanes, the
storm spawned tornadoes and left coastal flooding, crippling snow, and
bone-chilling cold in its wake. Of the more than 200 weather and climate events with damages exceeding $1 billion since 1980, this storm remains the country’s most costly winter storm to date..."
From Plowable Snow to 60F in a Week?
We may come close to 60 degrees Sunday, according to ECMWF ensemble
guidance. No more bitter smacks are on the horizon into early April.
Graphic: WeatherBell.
Z-Z-Zonal.
No high-amplitude pattern capable of buckling jet stream winds,
resulting in flooding or blizzards looking out 2 weeks, according to
NOAA's GFS model. The flow is westerly, drier and milder than average
east of the Rockies with more storms pushing into California.
California Storms: Wettest Water Year, So Far, in 122 Years.
The Mercury News has details of a stunning meteorological turnaround: "
Fueled
by a parade of “Pineapple Express” storms, California is in the midst
of its wettest water year in 122 years of record-keeping, according to
federal scientists. Between October 2016 and February 2017, California
averaged 27.81 inches of precipitation, the highest average since such
records began being kept in 1895, according to data released Wednesday
by the National Centers for Environmental Information, part of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration..."
A "Reckless Plan" to Starve NOAA? Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from Bloomberg View: "...In
any case, NOAA also works on weather models and forecasts, which
protect all Americans and many businesses from storms and flooding -- a
service worth an estimated $100 annually to every household in the country. TV weather reports and forecast apps depend on data collected and processed by NOAA, as do the insurance
and aviation industries. The satellite program needs consistent funding
to maintain a well-operating and up-to-date fleet. Jeopardizing the
next generation of satellites puts at risk
the ability to manage accurate forecasts two decades from now. Some
parts of NOAA are marked for elimination altogether, such as a program
that helps localities protect against rising seas and one that supports coastal research
at 33 universities. Direct cuts to the National Weather Service and the
National Marine Fisheries Service would amount to just 5 percent, but
that's enough to strain their operations and make improvements
difficult..." (GOES-16 animation: U. of Wisconsin CIMSS).
Meet the Teen Planting 150 Trees For Every Person on the Planet. One person can change the world - even an ambitious 9-year old.
Inhabitat has the inspiring story: "
Felix Finkbeiner is on a mission. Ten years ago, when he was just nine years old, he decided to fight climate change by planting one million trees. At the time he felt like adults just talk about the issues facing our planet without taking much action. With his initiative Plant for the Planet, the ambitious teenager surpassed his original goal together with the United Nations’ (UN) Billion Tree Campaign, planting over 14 billion trees in over 130 countries. And he is just getting started..."
Behind the Quiet, State-by-State Fight Over Electric Vehicles.
The New York Times reports: "...
Today,
the economic incentives that have helped electric vehicles gain a
toehold in America are under attack, state by state. In some states,
there is a move to repeal tax credits for battery-powered vehicles or to
let them expire. And in at least nine states, including liberal-leaning
ones like Illinois and conservative-leaning ones like Indiana,
lawmakers have introduce bills that would levy new fees on those who own
electric cars. The state actions would put the business of electric
vehicles, already rocky, on even more precarious footing..."
Illustration credit: Minh Uong, New York Times.
Big Tobacco Has Caught Start-Up Fever.
Bloomberg reports that it's no longer "smoking". No, now it's "platform-agnostic nicotene delivery solutions." Here's a clip: "...
Mature
industries typically have a hard time disrupting themselves, but, flush
with cigarette profits, the big competitors have decided to try. Since
the rise of e-cigarettes, it’s no longer such a stretch to imagine a
messianic engineer in a garage somewhere inventing a nicotine-delivery
gadget capable of doing to cigarettes what Uber did to taxicabs or
Napster did to the compact disc. If your profits hinge on nicotine
addicts, you might want that visionary in your employ. Everywhere you
look in the industry, companies are pouring money into product
development while borrowing liberally from the style of Silicon Valley.
They’re funding tech incubators, running venture funds, hosting
TED-style talks, and developing apps. The new dogma has spread.
Cigarettes are the industry’s past. Reduced-risk tobacco platforms are
the user interface of the future..."
Photo credit: "
Finlay MacKay for Bloomberg Businessweek; Prop stylist: Peter Samuels; Groomer: Angela Di Carlo."
Why Politics if Failing America. Wait, you're telling me the system is rigged? We had no idea.
Fortune takes a look at how we got here: "...
The
Harvard Business School’s project on U.S. competitiveness found that
Washington has made virtually no progress on any of the essential policy
steps needed to restore prosperity and growth. A broken political
system has suddenly become the greatest threat to our nation’s future.So
how did we get here? In part, by stealth. Over the last several
decades, the American political system has been slowly reconfigured to
serve not the public interest, but rather the interest of private,
gain-seeking organizations: our major political parties and their
industry allies. These players have put in place a set of rules and
practices that, while largely unnoticed by the average citizen, have
enhanced their power and diminished our democracy..."
Illustration credit:
Oliver Munday for Fortune.
The Pursuit of Happiness Is Not The Pursuit of Comfort. The author argues that only when we get out of our comfort zone does real growth and progress take place. Here's a clip from Thrive Global: "...What
would happen if we not only embraced discomfort, but also chased it and
thrived off of it? Lewis Howes makes it a goal to do something new in
his business every year that takes him out of his comfort zone. This
keeps him from being complacent, and it keeps him in a state of constant
growth. The saying that “growth begins at the end of your comfort zone”
is not just some cliché. There is actually a lot of truth in that
statement. Serious athletes know this all too well. The real workout
doesn’t begin until the exercise becomes difficult to complete. It’s
when we have to dig deep and push through that we become a better
version of ourselves..."
Embrace
the discomfort. Doing so may just set you up for something amazing. “A
smooth sea never made a skilled sailor.” — Franklin D. Roosevelt
Remre here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/crime/article137317553.html#storylink=cpy
Minnesota Winters: Almost Reasonable.
OK. I'm living in a parallel universe, at least for the next few days.
Normally New Yorkers squint and ask "how do you LIVE out there 6 months
out of the year?" - as if we're living on the surface of the moon. And
with one 18 hour stormy fire hose of snow much of the northeast will see
nearly as much snow as we have all "winter". We did just have winter,
right? If you have friends or family living from D.C. and Philly to New
York, Hartford, Providence and Boston call to check up on them. Tell
them it's perfectly fine, once the airports open up again, they can fly
out to M-I-N-N-E-S-O-T-A to warm up and calm down. 60 by Sunday? I'm
trying not to gloat, but it's hard. This may wind up being the biggest
late-season blizzard on record for many cities, potentially historic,
and impacts may last at least a week in some counties. Meanwhile I think
I have a slushy inch or two on my deck. Be careful out there...
TODAY: Cool sunshine. Winds: E 5-10. High: near 30
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear and chilly. Low: 8
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, snow melts rapidly. Winds: S 7-12. High: 34
THURSDAY: Milder with patchy clouds, few showers. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 24. High: 46
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, stiff breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: 47
SATURDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Light wind. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 28. High: 46
SUNDAY: Intervals of sun, feeling a bit feverish. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 33. High: 54
MONDAY: More clouds, passing shower? Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 38. High: 53
Climate Stories....
This Climate Lawsuit Could Change Everything. Do all of us have a constitutional right to clean air, clean water and a healthy climate system? Here's an excerpt from
The Washington Post: "...
The
21 plaintiffs, now between the ages of 9 and 20, claim the federal
government has consistently engaged in activity that promotes fossil
fuel production and greenhouse gas emissions, thereby worsening climate
change. They argue this violates their constitutional right to life,
liberty and property, as well the public trust doctrine, while holds
that the government is responsible for the preservation of certain vital
resources — in this case, a healthy climate system — for public use.
While legal experts are uncertain as to the lawsuit’s likelihood of
success, few have disputed its pioneering nature. Similar cases have
been brought on the state level, but this is the first against the
federal government in the United States. And in November, the case
cleared a major early hurdle when U.S. District Judge Ann Aiken denied
motions filed by the Obama administration, as well as the fossil fuel
industry, to have the lawsuit dismissed, ordering that it should proceed
to trial..." (Image credit: NASA).
Proposed NOAA Cuts Would Disarm Our Coasts in the Face of Rising Seas, Scientists Say. Here's a clip from a
Washington Post article: "...
A
proposed White House budget for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration could put coastal communities throughout the nation at a
major disadvantage as they struggle to adapt to threats from sea-level
rise, severe storms and other climate-related events, scientists and
other experts said. That’s because the budget, revealed by The Washington Post
last week, targets a handful of programs that provide important
resources to help coastal states prepare for the coming effects of
climate change..." (File photo: Andrew Demp, Yale).
Editorial: Old-School Conservatives Float a Solid Climate Change Plan. Here's an excerpt of an editorial at
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch: "...
Currently,
societal costs of burning fossil fuels — mostly a warming planet — go
largely unpaid. Some climate experts have estimated that an $80-a-ton
carbon tax might be enough to forestall the worst effects of climate
change. But it would wreak havoc on the coal industry, and Trump said
recently, “We’re going to put our miners back to work” to produce
“beautiful clean-coal energy.” If only such a thing as “clean coal”
existed. Coal’s emissions can be sequestered underground, but
large-scale sequestration is technically difficult and prohibitively
costly. The old-school Republicans at the Climate Leadership Council are
hoping for better. They wrote
in a New York Times op-ed, “Republicans are in charge of both Congress
and the White House. If they do nothing other than reverse regulations
from the Obama administration, they will squander the opportunity to
show the full power of the conservative canon, and its core principles
of free markets, limited government and stewardship.”
U.S. Increasingly Isolated on Climate. Here's a snippet of an Op-Ed at
USA TODAY: "...
Virtually
all other countries — even longtime climate deniers and horrific
polluters like China and India — have come to recognize the existential
danger to their people, if not the planet, by man-made production of
greenhouse gases. And they are putting in place programs to curb them,
often at considerable cost to development. China’s leadership has only
to look outside its windows in Beijing to see citizens staggering
through blinding pollution, their faces covered with masks. Those
175-plus countries gathered near Paris two years ago signed a sweeping
and unprecedented agreement to put a brake on practices that are
destroying the atmosphere of our planet. Trump, buffeted by competing
viewpoints within his administration, could well blow apart the
agreement and at the same time deal a body blow to U.S. leadership in
the world..."
File photo: Shutterstock.
Longer Heat Waves, Heavier Smog Go Hand in Hand with Climate Change.
Ars Technica reports: "
Exposure
to high levels of airborne pollutants is an ongoing problem, as is
exposure to extreme temperatures. If these two overlap, then it's
possible that the health impacts will be greater. A recent paper
published in PNAS uses 15 years of climate observations in the US and
Canada to show that the two problems do indeed cluster together and
occur in overlapping, large-scale episodes. The largest of these
episodes has the hottest temperatures and the highest level of pollution..."
In Race to Curb Climate Change, Cities Outpace Governments.
Reuters has the story; here's an excerpt: "...
Cities
from Oslo to Sydney are setting goals to curb climate change that
exceed national targets, causing tensions with central governments about
who controls policy over green energy and transport and construction.
More than 2,500 cities have issued plans to cut carbon emissions to the
United Nations since late 2014, setting an example to almost 200
nations that reached a Paris Agreement in December 2015 to fight global
warming. Although there are no officially
collated statistics available, many city targets are more ambitious
than those set by governments under the Paris accord, which imposes no
obligations on cities, regions or companies to define goals.
Just over half the world's population lives in urban areas, meaning
municipalities will help to determine whether the historic shift from
fossil fuels to cleaner energy agreed in Paris succeeds or fails..."
Photo credit: "A general view of the site for a new kindergarten on a fossil fuel free construction project in Oslo, Norway February 3, 2017." Picture taken February 3, 2017.
REUTERS/Alister Doyle.
Global Climate Change Battles Increasingly Being Won in Court. Here are a couple of excerpts from a
Newsweek article: "
The South African government has lost the country’s first climate change lawsuit after
the hight court ruled against its plans for a coal-fired power station,
the latest in a rising tide of international climate litigation.
Environmental NGO EarthLife Africa challenged
the government’s approval of the proposed Thabametsi coal-fired power
station on the grounds that it should have been preceded by an
evaluation of its climate change impacts....The case comes shortly after
a groundbreaking climate case decided
last month in Austria. A federal court blocked the expansion of
Vienna’s international airport because the increase in carbon emissions
that a new runway would generate is inconsistent with Austria’s
commitments to tackle climate change..." (File photo: NASA).
For Big Oil, Climate Change Looms Large Even In Trump Era. The clean-fuel/renewable revolution train has already left the station.
San Antonio's Express-News has the story: "....
But
Trump and his advisers may have lost the audience. Throughout the
conference known as CERAWeek by IHS Markit, energy ministers, CEOs and
other top executives showed that the industry is running ahead of
policymakers on climate change, no longer treating it as an inconvenient
theory, but rather as a hard reality to which it must adapt and change.
Khalid al-Falih, the Saudi Arabian energy minister, called on his
colleagues to find ways to “minimize the carbon footprint of fossil
fuels.” Exxon Mobil chief executive Darren Woods said energy development
can only move forward by protecting the environment and climate. Ben
van Beurden, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, said the industry needed to
produce more energy with fewer carbon emissions..."
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