Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.
Thursday, May 11, 2017
Amazing Fishing Opener Weekend - 1-3" Rains from T-storms Next Week
67 F. high temperature yesterday in the Twin Cities. 67 F. average high on May 11. 56 F. high on May 11, 2016.
May 12, 1922:
A strong cold front moves through western Minnesota, replacing shorts
with sweaters at Morris. The temperature dropped from 91 to 26 on this
date.
Fishing for a Weekend of Perfect Weather?
At
least we don't have to worry about blowing dust. On this date in 1934
the sky over Minnesota was black with clouds of roiling dust; half-foot
drifts of topsoil - dirt getting inside homes. There was no place to
hide from the dust storm, the result of original prairie grass being
being plowed under to plant wheat. New, gas-powered tractors accelerated
the plowing; a series of storms lifting topsoil into the air as far
east as Boston and Atlanta. Soil management has improved dramatically
since the 30s. We all want to believe there couldn't be another Dust
Bowl.
Conditions look good for Saturday's Minnesota Fishing
Opener. In fact, weather may be "too nice" (too sunny, winds too light?)
I'm no fishing expert - if I can't catch walleye up on Pelican I'll
blame the weather.
We may see highs near 80F Saturday and Sunday
in the Twin Cities; upper 70s up north with comfortable humidity levels.
The dreaded dew point reaches the 60s next week, fueling outbreaks of
strong to severe thunderstorms. Statistically we're due for some hail
and high water.
But Saturday should be ideal. On This Date in 1934: Massive Dust Storms Sweeps from Midwest Into Eastern USA. History.com has a good overview: "On
this day in 1934, a massive storm sends millions of tons of topsoil
flying from across the parched Great Plains region of the United States
as far east as New York,
Boston and Atlanta. At the time the Great Plains were settled in the
mid-1800s, the land was covered by prairie grass, which held moisture in
the earth and kept most of the soil from blowing away even during dry
spells. By the early 20th century, however, farmers had plowed under
much of the grass to create fields. The U.S. entry into World War I
in 1917 caused a great need for wheat, and farms began to push their
fields to the limit, plowing under more and more grassland with the
newly invented tractor. The plowing continued after the war, when the
introduction of even more powerful gasoline tractors sped up the
process. During the 1920s, wheat production increased by 300 percent,
causing a glut in the market by 1931..." (Image: History.com).
Warmer and Wetter.
A surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico sparks heavy showers and
T-storms Monday into Wednesday of next week. If the sun comes out 80F is
not out of the question the first half of next week, with dew points
pushing into the 60s. No wintry relapses are in sight - I suspect it's
safe to plant annuals now. MSP temperatures: WeatherBell. Super-Soggy Pattern Continues.
The pattern continues to favor significant rainfall amounts. Today's
storm pushes showers and heavy T-storms across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Region; heavy rain
reaching New England by Saturday as the system intensifies into a strong
coastal storm. The central USA enjoys warm, dry weather, but yet
another sloppy storm pushes into the Pacific Northwest with snow for the
highest elevations. NAM guidance: NOAA and Tropicaltidbits.com.
84-Hour Rainfall Forecast.
NAM guidance from NOAA hints at 1-3" rainfall amounts from Wichita and
Little Rock to Huntsville, Norfolk and Wilmington; another surge of
heavy rain reaching Oregon and Washington state. Source:
Pivotalweather.com.
7-Day Rainfall Potential.
3-4" of additional rain from North Dakota into Minnesota and northern
Wisconsin? More heavy rain and T-storms are likely the first half of
next week. Flood-ravaged counties in Arkansas may pick up another 2-4"
of rain in the next week, according to NOAA guidance. Flash flooding is
possible in coastal Oregon and Washington. An Overview of the Modern Tornado Record, 1950 Through Present. U.S. Tornadoes has an excellent overview of tornado technology, frequency and trends over time: "...In
the 1950s there was a practical use of numerical weather prediction and
development of computers. Forecasts were done by hand, on printed
weather maps. By the 1960s, numerical weather prediction by computer
began. The first successful weather satellite was launched, TIROS-7. On a
78-day mission, it relayed thousands of images showing large-scale
cloud regimes, thus proving that satellites can provide useful
information and surveillance of global weather from space. This
satellite paved the way for the Nimbus Program, a NASA and NOAA
collaboration for decades that advanced further research and use of
satellite programs. During the first 20 years of the database, tornado
reports steadily grew as awareness grew. The Palm Sunday outbreak in 1965
has been attributed to some of the growth in awareness. Forty-seven
tornadoes occurred on April 11th and 12th in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio,
Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois. They killed 271. In many ways, it was a
generational tornado outbreak like 2011 despite its lower death toll.
History is replete with big tornado events that bring discussion of their destructive force out of hiding..."
Graphic credit: Tornadoes by year. (Ian Livingston/ustornadoes.com). Thousand-Year Flood for Missouri? Here's an excerpt of an analysis at Climate Signals: "A
major slow-moving storm brought heavy rains, dangerous winds,
tornadoes, and flooding across much of the central US beginning April
28. States from Oklahoma to Indiana recorded extreme three-day rainfall
totals of 5 to 11 inches.[1]
Eastern Texas saw two EF-3 tornadoes and Kansas experienced a rare
late-season blizzard. An impressively large area of 100- to 1,000-year
rains hammered Missouri[2][4] and the Ozarks were hit by record-shattering flood crests. At least 20 people have been killed.[3]
Climate change is amplifying rainfall across all storm types. One of
the clearest changes in the weather across the globe and in the US is
the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rain and snow. A warmer
atmosphere holds more water, and storms supplied by climate change with
increasing moisture are widely observed to produce heavier rain and
snow..." How to Survive a Flash Flood. There's some very good information (you pray you'll never need) at lifehacker: "...If
the water comes at your vehicle suddenly and you have no time to get
away, you need to get out as quickly as possible. If you’re stuck and
the water is rising, unbuckle your seatbelt, roll down your windows, break them with a specialized tool, or kick them out to allow water to flow freely into the vehicle.
If you don’t, you won’t be able to open your doors because nearly 2,000
pounds of pressure will be pushing against it. Once water comes in and
the pressure equalizes on both sides—which will take less than a
minute—you’ll be able to open the car doors or swim out of the window
opening. Abandon your car and move to higher ground following the
on-foot rules explained above..."
Illustration credit: Angelica Alzona.
The Jet Stream Is About to Get Weird, Again, and It Could Lead to Extreme Weather. A high amplitude pattern increases the potential for severe outbreaks. Here's an excerpt from MSN.com: "...The
atmosphere wants to get out of the traffic jam. It wants to restore
forward motion and balance. That’s the whole point of weather — to
balance the energy across Earth. So it will begin to produce weird
conditions to break the traffic jam and return to its normal and
preferred west to east flow. This is where our increased vulnerability
for extreme weather events comes from. Floods, severe weather, spring
snows and even early season tropical storms are all fair game over the
next few weeks. Also troubling is the potential for an increase in this
extreme weather pattern as the climate changes. Research
published recently in Nature suggests
a link between Arctic warming and atmospheric wavenumber-6 patterns.
Enhanced warming in the Arctic would lead to a weaker temperature
gradient between the tropics and the poles, resulting in more
occurrences of a wavy, amplified jet stream capable of producing extreme
weather..."
Animation credit: Pivotal Weather. "Ensemble forecast 500mb heights and anomalies through May 14."
Another El Nino Brewing for Late 2017? At the rate we're going we may see a perpetual El Nino warm phase in the Pacific. Here's an excerpt from Yale E360: "There
is a strong chance for another El Niño in the second half of 2017,
bringing with it altered weather patterns across the globe that could
include drought in parts of Africa, Asia, and South America, and wet
conditions in the southern U.S., forecasts from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration and other organizations warned last week.
The new El Niño would start just over a year after the end of one of
the world’s strongest El Niños on record. That event, which lasted from
2015 to 2016, increased surface water temperatures in the central
Pacific Ocean by as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. NOAA
scientists did not say how severe the new El Niño could be..."
Image credit: Earth Institute, Columbia University. As Heat Index Climbs, Emergency Visits, Deaths Rise in New England.
It turns out the Heat Index (temperature + dew point) doesn't have to
be as high as thought for people to succumb to the heat. Here's an
excerpt from Brown University: "New
research shows that New Englanders are susceptible to serious health
effects even when the heat index is below 100, a finding that has helped
to change the National Weather Service threshold for heat
warnings...Data from the study, published in Environmental Research, has helped to shape a new National Weather Service policy for the New England region, according to a recently posted statement
from the service’s eastern region headquarters. “The old threshold of
100 to 104 degrees Farenheit for two or more consecutive hours has been
lowered to 95 to 99 degrees Farenheit occurring for two or more
consecutive days, or any duration of heat index 100 to 104 degrees
Farenheit,” the statement says..."
Myths and Facts About Lightning. Here's an excerpt from thedenverchannel.com and Fox47news.com: "Each
year roughly 300 people, on average, are struck by lightning across the
country. Sadly, 30 of those are killed. The odds of being struck are 1
in 13,000 for an average lifespan. Data compiled by the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration shows that over a 10 year period, the
Southeast has the most lightning fatalities in the country. Victims can
be directly struck by lightning or can be injured/killed by the
electrical current from the ground surrounding a nearby strike. A victim
doesn't hold onto the current, so it is safe to touch him/her following
the hit..."
Lightning Is No Match For This System That Can Predict Bolts Before They Strike. Interesting technology highlighted at Forbes: "...We
cannot tell you exactly where a lightning strike will occur,” company
president Bob Dugan said over the phone earlier this week, but Thor
Guard can tell you when atmospheric conditions within several miles of
the sensors are ripe for lightning strikes to occur. When Thor Guard’s
sensors indicate that a lightning strike is possible within range, a loud horn
and strobe lights alert anyone nearby to seek shelter immediately. The
system can work for just one location or include several sensors and
remote horns working together to keep watch over large spaces like
public parks or entire school districts. Dugan points to the vast array
of clients who use Thor Guard's systems to protect their properties as
proof that the system works as advertised. The list includes public
schools and colleges, numerous airports, the United States Golf
Association, several NFL teams, and coming soon, a system that covers 90
golf courses around Chicago, Illinois..."
File photo: A.J. Pena.
Most Backup Cameras Don't Like Bad Weather. Cars.com points out the limitations: "...If
only they worked as well in foul winter weather as they do on sunny
days. Subzero temperatures can distort the backup camera images shown on
dashboard screens or, as some owners report, cause the system to conk
out entirely — sometimes just for the first few seconds. It doesn't
matter whether it's an Acura, Volvo
or any brand in between, owners complain in online forums that their
backup cameras suffer winter blues that include blurry, foggy or dark
images or faint lines across the dashboard screen during frigid
temperatures. Some manufacturers say the cameras can't handle the cold,
but a Nissan spokesman said the LCD dashboard screen is to blame..."
Senate Rejects Repeal of Obama Drilling Rule. TheHill has an update: "Three
Republicans joined Senate Democrats on Wednesday to reject an effort to
overturn an Obama administration rule limiting methane emissions from
oil and natural gas drilling. Only 49 senators voted to move forward
with debate on legislation to undo the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)
rule, short of the 51 votes needed. Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Susan Collins (Maine) and John McCain (Ariz.) joined all 48 members of the Democratic caucus in rejecting the resolution under the Congressional Review Act (CRA)..."
The Crop That Ate America. Wait, North Dakota? Bloomberg takes a look at the benefits of planting corn: "Farmers
who had long rotated plantings among a diverse group of grains are
increasingly turning to a single one. Corn has always been a mainstay of
U.S. agriculture, but its increasing profitability has driven up corn's
share of total production, while grains such as wheat, oats and sorghum
have steadily fallen, according to a Bloomberg analysis of a
half-century of crop data. This locks farmers, as well as
machinery-makers including Deere & Co., to the rises and falls of
one crop, as both domestic and export markets grow more and more tied to
the dominant U.S. grain. That exposes farmers to greater volatility and
greater trade risk if a major buyer, such as Mexico, were to decide to
stop buying U.S. corn. Corn will make up 68 percent of this year’s
projected harvest of major U.S. grains and oilseeds this year, according
to data the U.S. Department of Agriculture released Wednesday. That’s
up from 47 percent in 1968. New markets and technology have made corn
more profitable compared to other crops, which is why longtime farmers
once devoted to competitive grains have switched to the nation’s
number-one source for biofuels and cattle feed..."
Food Waste is The World's Dumbest Environmental Problem. Vox explains why: "...Your
dinner isn’t simply a delicious, innocent bystander. From the farm to
your plate, there’s food waste at every step. And decomposing food isn’t
just stinky; it releases potent greenhouse gases, mostly in the form of
methane. Even so, food waste should still be a relatively small issue,
except that we needlessly waste food on such a massive scale that it
adds up to a global problem. Just under 7 percent of greenhouse gas
emissions come from food waste worldwide. To put that in perspective, if
all the world’s food waste came together and formed a country, it would
be the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind China and the
US..." Tesla's Solar Roof Pricing is Cheap Enough to Catch Fire. Bloomberg has a good overview of the technology: "...The
vision Musk describes with the solar roof is the grand unification of
Tesla’s clean-energy ambitions, combining solar power, batteries, and
electric cars. “These are really the three legs of the stool for a
sustainable energy future,” Musk said. “Solar power going to a
stationary battery pack so you have power at night, and then charging an
electric vehicle … you can scale that to all the world’s demand.” The
rooftop shingles are virtually indistinguishable from traditional
high-end roofing products, with discreet solar cells embedded beneath a
glass surface. From most viewing angles, they look just like ordinary
shingles, but they allow light to pass through from above onto a
standard flat solar cell..." (photo credit: Tesla).
Self-Driving Electric Ship Will Replace Thousands of Truck Trips at Norwegian Fertilizer Farm. You had me at 'electric'. Here's an excerpt at Quartz: "Norwegian chemicals group Yara announced today
that it’s building a battery-powered ship that will be able to drive
itself by 2020. It says the new container vessel will replace 40,000 of
the diesel truck journeys it makes hauling fertilizer from its plant to
ports every year. The new ship, named the Yara Birkeland, is a
zero-emissions vehicle developed with shipping technology company
Kongsberg. The ship will begin operations as a manned vessel next year,
move to remote operation in 2019, and be capable of fully autonomous
travel in 2020..."
Image credit: "Rendering of Yara's self-driving ship." (Yara)
The Economy-Changing Power of the LED Bulb. It's working - we just need to turn up the dial and move even faster. Here's a clip from Bloomberg View: "...Then, in a blog post Monday,
economist Lucas Davis of the University of California at Berkeley's
Haas School of Business beat me to it. The residential portion of the
decline in electricity use, at least (my chart above includes commercial
and industrial use), can be attributed largely to LEDs and other
energy-efficient lighting:
Over 450 million LEDs have been installed to date in the United States, up from less than half a million in 2009, and nearly 70% of Americans have purchased at least one LED bulb. Compact fluorescent lightbulbs (CFLs) are even more common, with 70%+ of households owning some CFLs. All told, energy-efficient lighting now accounts for 80% of all U.S. lighting sales.
LEDs use 85 percent less electricity than incandescent bulbs..."
Why Electric Car Early Adopters Went Electric + Best Things About Driving Electric.
For me it was the ability to save money (charging at home late at
night), lower insurance and MUCH less maintenance. There are 150 moving
parts on my Tesla, compared with roughly 10,000 moving parts on a
traditional gas-powered vehicle. There is simply less that can go wrong.
Here's an excerpt from Clean Technica: "...Environmental
benefit” was still the leading response, but the gap narrowed hugely
for this question versus the previous one. Drive quality was illuminated
as a dramatic benefit of EVs in this section. “The smooth and quiet
drive” of EVs and “the fun and/or convenience of instant torque” were in
close contention for the #2 spot. However, they both concern drive
quality and could have been combined if we chose to go that route. In
such a case, “drive quality” may well have risen to #1. The remaining
benefits rather evenly split the pie, with some notable differences by
region and type of EV, as highlighted in the previous section. However,
one more benefit worth pulling out here is “low maintenance.” It didn’t
perform well at all in the previous section, but it gets quite a bit of
love here — comparable with several other topics, on average..."
46% of "TV Screen Time" Spent Watching Traditional Linear TV? Netflix, Amazon and Hulu are catching on - getting to be a regular habit according to new research highlighted at iab.com: "...56%
of U.S. Adults own a Streaming Enabled TV which is a 56% rise from
2015. The majority of time Americans are watching TV (54%) is spent
streaming video (20%), which can include network TV shows, subscription
service original shows, or original digital video content. Some additional key highlights from the study include:
46% of American’s ‘TV Screen Time’ is spent watching Traditional Linear Programming
Half
of Streaming Enabled TV owners (50%) say they prefer watching
commercials over paying for ad-free subscriptions when streaming video
on TV..."
The New Hulu Looks A Lot Like the Future of TV. High praise from The Wall Street Journal: "...What Hulu gets right is that the live TV channel is dying—and needs to be replaced by something that looks a lot more like Netflix.
Instead of listing what’s on 50 channels, Hulu opens up with a focus on
one thing it thinks you’d most like to watch. Flick up for a different
recommendation. It makes no distinction between the live big game, stuff
from your DVR or on-demand episodes of “The Golden Girls.” Hulu isn’t
the only service to recognize we need fewer choices, not more. YouTube
TV, the Google live service that launched last month, puts search,
trending shows and personalized suggestions front and center..."
Photo credit: "We’re
in a TV renaissance, but keeping up is a commitment. The Hulu with Live
TV app recognizes we don’t need more choices, just better choices." Photo: Emily Prapuolenis/The Wall Street Journal.
Minneapolis Named Best Place for Doctors to Avoid Burnout. Who knew? Details via Minneapolis - St. Paul Business Journal: "The
weather in Minneapolis is often cold, but when it comes to avoiding
doctor burnout, it's No. 1. According to Medscape, a medical trade
publication, Minneapolis ranks as the best place for physician
satisfaction when it comes to a calm life coupled with professional and
personal satisfaction. Factors used in the study include: the number of
medical malpractice lawsuits, least punitive medical boards, teamwork
with physician assistants and nurse practitioners, local amenities and
overall quality of life..."
SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, risk of a few walleye. Winds: S 5-10. High: 78
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and warm, touch of June. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 81
MONDAY: Fading sun, few T-storms. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 62. High: 80
TUESDAY: Very humid, strong T-storms around. Winds: S 15-25. Wake-up: 63. High: 84
WEDNESDAY: Still muggy, more showers and T-storms. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 62. High: 74
THURSDAY: More sun, less humidity. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 55. High: 69
Climate Stories...
A Place for Faith and Science When It Comes to a Changing Climate.
On Wednesday Dr. Mark Seeley and I lead a panel on faith-based climate
messaging at the National Adaptation Forum in St. Paul. Scientists and
thought-leaders representing Christianity, Judaism and Islam agreed that
appealing to hearts and minds is critical. A joint statement issued on
the role of faith and climate change messaging is below. And don't bury
the lead: viable solutions exist today. You can club people over the
head with the stick of climate gloom and doom, or hold up a carrot of
hope: we can have everything we want and need, save money and retool our
economy, while emitting less warming carbon pollution. There will be
disruption and dislocation, but I'm optimistic we'll figure it out.
Because in the end we won't have a choice. 2017 National (Climate) Adaptation Panelists
focused on faith-based messaging, from left to right: Mark Seeley, Dr.
Teddi Potter, Paul Douglas; Mitchell Hescox; Odeh A. Muhawesh; Rabbi
Fred Scherlinder. Climate Change is Turning the American Southwest into "Mad Max". Esquire digs into the data and the trends: "...According
to the study, the number of dust storms that the American southwest
experiences each year has more than doubled from the 1990s to the 2000s.
These storms—which can spread infectious disease, damage airplane
engines, disrupt land transportation, wreak further havoc on
drought-ravaged farms, and serve as a key component of the Mad Max lifestyle—are likely more frequent because of warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. That, according to the EPA
(last year), is one of many splendid results of climate change. Dust
storms now strike the Southwest 48 times a year, compared to an average
of 20 times per year during the 1990s. Researchers traced the spike to a
combination of warmer sea temperatures in the North Pacific and colder
waters off the California coast, which allows the cooler, drier winds
from the North Pacific to come sweeping into the southwestern United
States. That has dried out the soil, and kicked up more dust storms..."
Photo credit: Joseph Plotz/NWS/NOAA). "A July 2012 dust storm in Gilbert, Arizona."
Glacier National Park Losing Its Glaciers With Just 26 of 150 Left. Better take a road trip to Montana to check them out, while you still can. The Guardian has details: "...Warming
winters are bringing more rain, rather than glacier-forming snow, to
Montana and other states. Even when there is plenty of snow, as Montana
experienced this winter, the increasing heat of spring and summer is
melting it away more quickly. Spring snow melts are now occurring at
least two weeks earlier than they were in the 1960s. Scientists analyzed
the extent of the 39 Montanan glaciers by studying aerial and satellite
imagery stretching back to 1966. The latest data, from 2015, shows that
there are now just 26 glaciers larger than 25 acres. The largest,
Harrison glacier, is now 410 acres – a 19% decrease over the past 50
years. Others have declined by up to 85%..."
Map credit: "The perimeter of Sperry Glacier in Glacier national park in 1966,1998, 2005, and 2015." Photograph: US Geological Survey.
Going, Going: Glacier National Park's Iconic Glaciers Are Melting Away.InsideClimate News has more perspective and detail on troubling trends in Montana: "...Over
the past 50 years, some of the glaciers have shrunk about 82 percent,
so they won't be with us soon," said Daniel Fagre, the lead USGS
scientist on the project. "For others, shrinkage has been more modest —
about 13 percent. But the amount of ice in all cases is diminished, so
the long-term prospects for our glaciers are not good." Fagre and his
colleagues analyzed measurements, taken over the past five decades, of
the park's 37 major glaciers and two others on adjacent U.S. Forest
Service land. They found that of those 39 glaciers, only 26 still meet a
25-acre threshold. Glaciologists consider that amount of mass a
convenient cut-off point to distinguish between a glacier (a perennial
wedge of ice and snow that moves) and stagnant ice or a perennial
snowfield (a wedge of ice and snow that doesn't)..."
Photo credit: "Glacier
National Park is losing its glaciers as global temperatures rise. When
the park was founded in 1910, it had about 150 glaciers. Today, only 26
still meet the 25-acre threshold to be called a glacier." Credit: Jinrui Qu/CC-BY-SA-2.0. Arctic Heating Up Twice as Fast as Rest of the Globe. CNN reports: "The
Arctic is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the world --
triggering a "massive decline in sea ice and snow," according to a new
federal report. On Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration released its 11th annual Arctic Report Card, which
compiles data from 61 scientists in 11 countries. "Rarely have we seen
the Arctic show a clearer, stronger or more pronounced signal of
persistent warming and its cascading effects on the environment than
this year," Jeremy Mathis, director of NOAA's Arctic Research Program,
said in a statement..."
Animation credit: Arctic ice melt from 1984 to 2016. Courtesy of NASA.
New Book Ranks the Top 100 Solutions to Climate Change. The Results Are Surprising. You'll never guess what's number 1. Here's an excerpt of an interview with Dave Roberts at Vox: "...We
thought at least the top of the list would — solar, wind, wind, solar.
Because that’s what you hear from Charles Ferguson, Al Gore, [Jeffrey]
Sachs, or Christiana Figueres. They’re all saying the same thing. It’s
understandable — 62 percent of the [greenhouse gas] molecules up there
came from fossil fuel combustion, so you just invert it, right? It makes
sense. It just doesn’t work out that way. If you take solar, which is
eight and 10 [on the list], and wind, which is two and 22, and you
combine them, they are definitely near the top. But you can’t model on-
and off-shore wind the same, because the economics are vastly different.
And you can’t model rooftop and solar farms in the same model. So in
some cases we broke things up that people think of as aggregated. But
even then, the number one solution is educating girls and family
planning..."
Image credit: "Educating girls: 60 gigatons of potential." (Drawdown)
Historic Flooding in Quebec Probably Linked to Climate Change: Experts. Here's an excerpt from The Montreal Gazette: "Some
may blame the gods, Hydro-Québec or their own bad luck, but climate
change scientists say the heavy rains and terrible flooding plaguing
Quebec this spring are almost certainly caused by global warming.
“There is a very clear picture emerging that we’ve changed the
chemistry of the atmosphere with our greenhouse gases and we are really
seeing the consequences now,” Paul Beckwith, a climate systems scientist
who teaches at the University of Ottawa and Carleton University, told
the Montreal Gazette in an interview Tuesday. Record amounts of rain
this spring in Quebec and Ontario have meant the soil is saturated and
can’t absorb any more water. The run-off adds to the water levels
in already bloated rivers and streams. Lake Ontario has now hit its
highest recorded level since 1880, when record-keeping began. The St.
Lawrence River is about 1.2 meters higher than it normally is this time
of year..."
Photo credit: "The
Montreal region is susceptible to flooding because of its geographical
position, immediately below the confluence of the Ottawa River and the
St. Lawrence River." Peter McCabe / MONTREAL GAZETTE.
These People Want You To Know Climate Change Isn't Just for Liberals. Ars Technica
has a very good recap of the pushback on the part of a relatively small
(but growing) group of conservative voices speaking out about climate
risk: "He doesn’t start with an apocalyptic
description of future impacts when he talks to people about climate
change, but, for some audiences, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Professor of Environmental Studies Calvin DeWitt does turn to the book
of Revelation. “I’ll have a white-out pen in my pocket, and I’ll have
them read Revelation chapter 11, verse 18. It’s a description of the
sounding of the last trumpet, as you hear in Handel’s ‘Messiah,' and the
end verse says, ‘The time has come for destroying those who destroy the
Earth,’” DeWitt told me. “And so, I say, ‘I have a white-out pen here
for anyone who would like to correct their Bible.’” DeWitt sees his
faith as fundamental to, rather than in conflict with, his concern about
climate change. He often finds common ground with fellow evangelicals
by talking about stewardship of the wonderful natural world they have
been given as a home. Put in these familiar terms, climate change seems
more like an issue worthy of careful consideration..." (Image: Thinkstock). Earth Could Break Through a Major Climate Threshold In The Next 15 Years, Scientists Warn. The Washington Post summarizes new research findings: "Global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above their preindustrial levels within the next 15 years, according to a new scientific study,
crossing the first threshold under the Paris climate agreement and
placing the world at a potentially dangerous level of climate change.
The report comes as climate agreement participants are watching the
United States — where the Trump administration is debating whether to
withdraw from the Paris accord — and asscientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are working on a special report about the 1.5-degree goal (equivalent to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and the consequences of overshooting it..." (File image: NASA).
Reagan's Secretary of State Pleads for U.S. To Stay in Climate Deal. CNN has the story and video: "...George
Shultz -- who served as secretary of state, secretary of labor,
treasury secretary and director of the Office of Management and Budget
during the Nixon and Reagan presidencies -- lays out the argument in an op-ed published Tuesday in The New York Times
with Ted Halstead, president of the Climate Leadership Council. Shultz
and Halstead note the "newly invigorated pro-Paris campaign by many of
America's top CEOs," citing a series of "public letters and full-page
ads." "This is as close as big business gets to a consensus position,"
they write, arguing that "our companies are best served by a stable and
predictable international framework that commits all nations to
climate-change mitigation." Shultz and Halstead say that a US withdrawal
from the Paris deal would cloud the international business climate..."
Climate Change Denial Rattles Business. Here's a clip from The Washington Post: "...Last November, hundreds of U.S. companies wrote
to President Trump. Forbes reported: “More than 300 U.S. companies,
including 72 with annual revenues exceeding $100 million, have sent an
open letter to President-elect Donald Trump, urging him not to abandon
the Paris climate agreement.” This is not just the sentiment of liberals
from Silicon Valley, as climate-change deniers would have you believe.
(“High-profile organizations signing the letter include Dannon, DuPont,
eBay, Gap, General Mills, Hewlett-Packard, Hilton, Intel, Kellogg, Levi
Strauss, Mars, Monsanto, Nike, Patagonia, Staples, Starbucks, The
Hartford, Tiffany and Vail Resorts — plus many others.”) They have made
investments, planned transactions, cultivated public goodwill and done
the math. Abandoning climate-change mitigation would be detrimental to
their bottom line..."
There Must Be a More Productive Way to Talk About Climate Change. NPR interviews climate scientist and outspoken Christian Katharine Hayhoe: "...Climate
denier is a good way to end the conversation. So if our goal is to
label and dismiss whoever it is that we are speaking with or to, then
that word will do it. What I use instead is a word I think is actually
more accurate, as well as having less baggage associated with it, and
that is the word dismissive. I use that. It comes from the six Americas
of global warming, which separates people into a spectrum of six
different groups depending on how they feel about climate change science
and solutions. The group starts with people who are alarmed. And then
there's people who are concerned. And then those who are cautious, which
are actually the biggest group. Then there's people who are disengaged,
those who are doubtful. And then at the very end we have about 10
percent of the population who is dismissive..."
The Doomsday Glacier.
Alarmist hype? I sure hope so, but there are so many gotchas out there
when it comes to climate volatility and disruption. This is a big
question mark, highlighted at RollingStone: "In
the farthest reaches of Antarctica, a nightmare scenario of crumbling
ice – and rapidly rising seas – could spell disaster for a warming
planet. Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is so remote that only 28
human beings have ever set foot on it. Knut Christianson, a 33-year-old
glaciologist at the University of Washington, has been there twice. A
few years ago, Christianson and a team of seven scientists traveled more
than 1,000 miles from McMurdo Station, the main research base in
Antarctica, to spend six weeks on Thwaites, traversing along the flat,
featureless prairie of snow and ice in six snowmobiles and two Tucker
Sno-Cats..."
Photo credit: "The ice cliffs of West Antarctica." Michael Martin/laif/Redux.
The Business Case for the Paris Climate Accord. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at The New York Times: "...In
a recent barrage of public letters and full-page ads, Fortune 100
companies are voicing strong support for remaining in the Paris accord.
The breadth of this coalition is remarkable: industries from oil and gas
to retail, mining, utilities, agriculture, chemicals, information and
automotive. This is as close as big business gets to a consensus
position. American business leaders understand that remaining in the
agreement would spur new investment, strengthen American
competitiveness, create jobs, ensure American access to global markets
and help reduce future business risks associated with the changing
climate. Leaving Paris would yield the opposite..." (File image: NASA).
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