67 F. average high on May 8.
73 F. high on May 8, 2016.
May 9, 1966: Minnesota experiences a widespread hard freeze, with temperatures in the teens as far south as Caledonia.
Good Reasons to Consider Flood Insurance
I might consider spending a few extra bucks on flood insurance, even if you think you're not in a flood zone. Remember, homeowners insurance doesn't usually cover flood-related damage.
Last year, for the first time on record, Minnesota experienced 2 separate "mega-rain" flash flood events. That means over 1,000 square miles picking up 6 inches or more. 2016 brought 160 natural disasters across North America with 19 major floods in the USA; the most since records were first kept in 1980, according to Munich Re.
Epic floods are underway right now from Arkansas and Missouri to Montreal. You don't have to live near a river to be at risk. "Drainage events" are floods that lie outside traditional FEMA flood zones. A 2015 Illinois study showed that almost all flood damage occurred outside the traditional flood plain.
Heaviest rains slide south of Minnesota this week, brushing southern counties with showers tonight and Wednesday. A few T-storms may bubble up over the weekend as a warm front approaches.
ECMWF guidance hints at a few 70s next week with more noticeable humidity levels.
File photo: Houston flooding in 2015, courtesy of AP.
3-D Hail Core. Meteorologist Brad Panovich took a 3-D slice of the severe hailstorm that shut down Denver for a time yesterday. A relatively low freezing level meant more of those (giant) 3-4" diameter hailstones were able to survive the trip to the ground, creating a winter-like scene for much of the area.
Evidence of Baseball Size Hail. When hail goes through car windshields there's a good chance it's baseball-size or larger (3-4" in diameter) - hitting the ground at speeds over 100 mph. Amazing.
January in May. The hail fell so long and hard in Denver and Colorado's Front Range yesterday that it accumulated on lawns, fields and roads. You may want to leave those all-season tires on a bit longer.
Surges of Warmth. A higher sun angle is trying to send warmer, wetter air northward, but chilly air is slow to leave the northern USA this spring, resulting in waves of stormy ripples along the boundary separating sticky from chilly. The west coast dries out a bit; showers of rain (and snow) winding down for New England, but the next wave of heavy showers and T-storms pushes across the Plains into the Upper Midwest by Wednesday. 84-hour 12 KM NAM guidance: NOAA and Tropicaltidbits.com.
First 4 Months of 2017: Warmest on Record for 14 States. The warm bias continues, with a record start to 2017 reported from New Mexico and Texas to Florida and Ohio. Only one state (Washington) had a cooler than average start to the year. Map: NOAA NCDC.
Photo credit: Charlie Riedel/AP. "Ethan Pederson, 9, and his mom Susan Goodman clear away debris as they help salvage items from a friend's home on March 7 that was destroyed by a tornado after a severe storm passed through Oak Grove, Missouri."
Mississippi River Mayors Seek Flood Mitigation Solutions. A story at KMOX Radio in St. Louis had statistics that made me do a double-take: "...Wellenkamp said since 2011 there’s been $50 billion worth of natural disaster impact along the Mississippi, “Within that 50-billion you’ve got a 100-year flood, a 200-year flood, a 500-year flood, a 50-year drought, and two hurricanes.” Wellenkamp said his Mississippi River Cities & Towns Initiative continues to work with the federal government to find ways of minimizing flood impact. He said the American taxpayer gets five dollars back for every dollar spent on disaster mitigation for flooding..."
Montreal Declares State of Emergency Due to Flooding. Bad things happen when weather stalls. The same cut-off low that has swamped much of New England is hammering eastern Canada as well. Here's an excerpt from CityNews: "Thousands of Canadians across the country are spending the weekend in a desperate struggle with rising floodwaters caused by unusually persistent rainfall. On Sunday, Montreal became the latest city in Quebec to declare a state of emergency after three dikes gave way in the Pierrefonds-Roxboro borough, in the north end of the city by the Rivieres des Prairies. Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre said homes have been evacuated in that borough as well as on two nearby islands. He said officials were prepared to remove people from their homes if they refused to evacuate. “I understand that morally or psychologically, physically, mentally, people are very, very tired. We’re talking 24 hours in a row of people helping each other,” Coderre told reporters. “But sometimes we need to protect people from themselves...”
Photo credit: "Members of the Canadian army walk along a flooded street in the Montreal borough of Pierrefonds, Sunday, May 7, 2017, following flooding in the region." THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes.
Photo credit: "The flood on June 23, 2016, was the third worst in West Virginia history." Photo courtesy of the Greenbrier.
Why Tornado Destruction Will Get Only Worse, Regardless of Climate Change. Because cities continue to expand into suburbs and exurbs - what were fields and forests 50 years ago are now strip malls and housing developments. Here's an excerpt from a story at Philly.com: "...Since 1950, says Stephen Strader, an assistant professor in Villanova University’s department of geography and the environment, development in the contiguous 48 states, home to one of the world’s most-fertile tornado spawning grounds, also has more than quadrupled. By his estimate, only 5 percent of the land mass was considered developed in 1950; by 2010, that number was 22 percent, and a lot of building occurred in some of the world’s most fertile spawning grounds for tornadoes. In papers published recently he has warned that tornado damages could triple by the end of the century, even if tornadoes don’t get an extra kick from a warming trend. Things would be worse, of course, if they do. “We build ourselves into disasters,” he says. “Disasters are socially constructed...”
Brooks’ and others' research shows the suspected link is tenuous to some extent. Some of the uncertainty in research is tied to the small scale of tornadoes and the difficulty in simulating their development in larger scale computer models. There is a higher certainty of the link between a warming climate and more numerous intense thunderstorms with torrential downpours. The extra heating adds more buoyancy to moist low level air by taking advantage of the potential energy already present in that air. A warming climate is linked with more episodes of rapid upward motion of moist parcels of air, lifted to where it cools and must condense. With enough strong lift comes violent, heavy thunderstorms. Since tornadoes come from thunderstorms, and usually violent storms, it must follow the increase in those storms would have an almost linear relationship with an increase in tornadoes. The complexity and uncertainty enters the picture when models show a warming climate will probably lessen the favorable change in winds with increased altitude which feeds the spin in the atmosphere leading to tornadoes..."
Photo credit: "People clean up the debris inside homes destroyed by a tornado in Van Zandt County, Texas, on April 30, 2017." (Jae S. Lee/Dallas Morning News/TNS)
Image credit: "Researchers at the University of Oklahoma are learning more about how that debris affects a tornado through radar simulation. This program shows the different types of debris inside a tornado. And a room allows them to simulate a tornado with debris." Courtesy: KFOR / NBC News Channel
Photo credit: Wright Hennepin Cooperative Electric Association. "Solar capacity has jumped 80 percent in Minnesota this year, provided by projects such as the Wright Hennepin Cooperative Electric Association's in Rockford, the first community array in the state."
Photo credit: "Antelope Valley Transit Authority received North America’s first 60-foot articulated electric bus made by BYD."
As Environmental Battles Shift to States, Renewable Energy Adoption Could Come Down To Economics. Here's an excerpt from TechCrunch: "...Many of these are built in as best practices almost independent of regulatory requirements,” said Muro. “Much of the cleantech, advanced-economy-focused companies already embraced these practices as relentlessly trying to drive carbon and pollution out of their supply chains. They see it as a broader consumer appeal and are moving ahead irregardless of the immediate regulatory scrimmaging at the moment.” Wall street banks and big insurance companies are also pushing policies that encourage businesses to take their climate responses into account. The insurance industry is beginning to see losses rise from climate related events, and they’d like to encourage customers to do more to address those impacts. Meanwhile investment funds are beginning to drop fossil fuel stocks. A December report in the New York Times indicated that many big investors smell trouble in their traditional energy portfolios for a number of reasons..." (Image credit: TechCrunch).
TODAY: Partly sunny, drier. Winds: NW 7-12. High: near 70
TUESDAY NIGHT: Slight chance of a shower or T-shower. Low: 51
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine central and north. Few showers for southern Minnesota. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 65
THURSDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 49. High: 68
FRIDAY: Lot's of sunshine, comfortable. Wake-up: 46. High: 66
SATURDAY: Intervals of sun, mild breeze. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 48. High: 68
SUNDAY: Unsettled, humid. Risk of a T-storm. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 52. High: near 70
MONDAY: Chance of showers, T-storms. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 53. High: 69
Is It True 97% of Climate Scientists Believe Warming is Occurring? That number may be low, as explained in an answer at Quora: "...So we have seven peer-reviewed and published papers which use different techniques, published from 2004 to 2015, which show that the consensus among climate science papers is in excess of 97% and that there are a tiny number of dissenters who are making obviously incorrect statements. One paper shows that there are 69,406 authors in the field in two years alone who agree, and only four in the same two year period who don't agree. You really should be looking at those four and wondering what they are smoking, or at least who is paying for them to be smoking it."
Image credit: Jamespowell.org.
Photo credit: "A tanker truck passes an oil refinery in Richmond, California on March 9, 2010." (Photo: Paul Sakuma, AP).
Melting polar ice is raising sea levels, threatening coastal cities. Further danger could come from large numbers of people, possibly dislocated by climate change, competing for scarce or fluctuating resources.
News reports of deadly twisters are like global warming indicators, telling everyone the danger is serious.
Politicians may continue to sneer at climate change, but it’s happening, right before people’s eyes. The toll in human lives and damage cost undoubtedly will get worse.
- See more at: http://www.wvgazettemail.com/gazette-editorials/20170507/gazette-editorial-climate-change-doesnt-care-whether-you-believe-it#sthash.rL4RCKVr.dpuf
Why Canada Secretly Loves Climate Change. Not sure "love" is the right word, but there's little doubt that our neighbors to the north will benefit more than most countries. Here's a clip from Business Insider: "...Pleasant weather is just the retail end of Canada’s climate change perks. An assessment from our federal government lists the many “opportunities” climate change will present to Canadian agriculture:
“...an expansion of the growing season to go along with milder and shorter winters. This could increase productivity and allow the use of new and potentially more profitable crops....These warmer temperatures would also benefit livestock production in the form of lower feed requirements, increased survival rates of the young and lower energy costs. Climate change could improve soil quality.”However, the biggest boon to Canada as the world approaches permanent catastrophe is our wealth in natural resources: specifically, fossil fuels and freshwater. According to UCLA geographer Laurence C. Smith, climate change could turn Canada into a “global superpower” by 2050..."
Image credit: Participant Media.