June 25, 1950: Flooding hits Warroad. Strong winds accompany waters that rose 4 feet in 10 minutes.
More September Than June - Plan B Holiday Weather?
"There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends" wrote Arnot Sheppard. Amen.
For half the year we daydream about summer weekends. We make plans, cross our fingers, say silent prayers, hoping for the best. It's like playing a hopeless version of Weather Lotto.
Yesterday's weather was especially manic, alternating between blue sky and raging thunderstorms - the result of an unusually cold swirl of low pressure aloft. It's odd tracking clippers in late June.
A cool, September-like breeze lingers today; instability showers most prevalent from the Arrowhead into Wisconsin. The mercury mellows a bit this week; a swarm of storms likely Wednesday. We may salvage lukewarm sun Friday and Saturday, but ECMWF guidance hints at showers and T-storms Sunday and Monday. Of course. Highs reach the 70s next weekend, but 80s return the latter half of next week.
Yes, it's a "sub-optimal forecast" - but maybe the holiday weather outlook will age well over time, like a fine (box) wine.
Spotty Rains Continue in Minnesota. Here's an excerpt of this week's Minnesota WeatherTalk from Mark Seeley: "This week brought some significant thunderstorms to portions of Minnesota, notably the northwest and the southern tier of counties near the Iowa border. Some northwestern observers reported a half inch or over an inch of rain, much needed given the heat and rapid growth of crops earlier in the month. Across southern counties rainfall of 1 inch to 1.50 inches was prevalent. Most other observers are reporting total monthly rainfall that falls short of normal. Only about 20 percent of the climate stations are reporting normal or greater than normal rainfall this month. Portions of Kittson, Marshall, Roseau, Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Koochiching Counties remain in moderate drought...."
Cool Bias Into Early June. The chilliest readings come this weekend, but I don't see us climbing out of this cool rut until the second week of July.
Why Offshore Wind Farms Can't Handle the Toughest Hurricanes. A risk, and an opportunity. Here's an excerpt from PBS NewsHour: "Offshore wind developments are rapidly expanding. But most wind turbines are not built to withstand a direct hit from the strongest hurricanes, according to a new study in Geophysical Research Letters that models the worst-scenarios caused by category-5 storms. Researchers predict new offshore turbines would face hurricane wind gusts of more than 223 miles per hour — but the turbines can only manage gusts of 156 miles per hour based on current engineering standards. Part of the problem: Offshore turbine designs often draw from onshore wind turbines in Europe, where hurricane conditions are essentially nonexistent..."
Photo credit: "Heavy seas engulf Rhode Island’s Block Island wind farm, the first U.S. offshore wind warm." Photo by Energy.gov/Flickr.
Photo credit: "In this June 2, 2014 file photo, cattle graze in a pasture near a wind turbine in Adair, Iowa. President Trump’s putdown of wind energy at his Iowa rally was denounced Thursday, June 22, 2017, across the state, which has been a national leader in wind generation. Trump was talking up his support for coal during his speech in Cedar Rapids on Wednesday when he said: “I don’t want to just hope the wind blows to light up your homes and your factories.” He added “as the birds fall to the ground,” a reference to birds killed by turbines." (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)
Photo credit: "Steve Perlman on the Kalalau cliffs on the Hawaiian island of Kauai." (Ken Wood)
Illustration credit: Francesco Francavilla for Fortune.
Photo credit: Sarah Scoles/WIRED.
Senate Health Bill is a Disaster for Opioid Crisis. Wired.com reports.
Photo credit: William Albert Allard/National Geographic Creative. Originally published in 1965.
Illustration credit: Ignacio Serrano.
TODAY: Cool breeze with intervals of sun, PM shower. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 67
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing and cool. Low: 51
MONDAY: More sun, feels like early September. Winds: N 7-12. High: 70
TUESDAY: Plenty of sun, warmer wind. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 54. High: 77
WEDNESDAY: Showers and T-storms likely. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 61. High: 76
THURSDAY: Sunny start, few T-storms late? Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 64. High: 81
FRIDAY: Some sun, few T-showers possible. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 62. High: near 80
SATURDAY: Some sun, cooler. Shower up north. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 59. High: 71
"Call Me Crazy, but Conservatives Should Probably Conserve". Clean air, clean water and a stable climate shouldn't be a partisan issue. My thanks to everyone who stopped by Salem Lutheran Church in Deerwood, Minnesota Friday afternoon. Here's an excerpt from The Brainerd Dispatch: "...His realization that climate change was happening came not from Al Gore, but simply observing the new extremes of weather, Douglas said. It made sense to him both from the capitalist and Christian perspectives to work to combat climate change. Teddy Roosevelt launched the National Park Service, and Richard Nixon, the Environmental Protection Agency. Ronald Reagan once said the government had a duty to protect against the environmental damages of industrial development, Douglas pointed out. Douglas said it was inherent that Republican ideals align with environmental protection. "Call me crazy, but I think conservatives should probably conserve," he said. "Otherwise, change your name..."
Photo credit: "
From Heatwaves to Hurricanes, Floods to Famine: Seven Climate Change Hotspots. The Guardian takes a look at where the symptoms of a rapidly changing climate may have the most immediate implications: "...The evidence for the onset of climate change is compelling. But who and where is it hitting the hardest? How fast will it come to Africa, or the US? What will be its impact on tropical cities, forests or farming? On the poor, or the old? When it comes to details, much is uncertain. Mapping the world’s climate hotspots and identifying where the impacts will be the greatest is increasingly important for governments, advocacy groups and others who need to prioritise resources, set goals and adapt to a warming world. But lack of data and different priorities make it hard. Should scientists pinpoint the places most likely to see faster than average warming or wetter winters, or should they combine expected physical changes with countries’ vulnerability? Some hot-spot models use population data. Others seek to portray the impacts of a warming world on water resources or megacities..."
The Uncertain Future of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. How might the West Antarctic Ice Sheet be impacted by a warming climate? Eos reports: "...One hypothesis is the following sequence of events: (1) global warming melts virtually all sea ice surrounding Antarctica, thereby removing this component of the O-Ring that encloses the continent and stabilizes discharge from ice streams and calving from ice shelves; (2) freed from pileup of sea ice against their calving fronts, ice shelves would disintegrate faster from increased iceberg calving that discerps ice shelves, facilitated by enhanced top and bottom melting; (3) retreat of the Ross Ice Shelf calving front, successively freeing East Antarctic outlet glaciers that now “nail” the Ross Ice Shelf to the Transantarctic Mountains, thereby allowing these outlet glaciers to increase discharge of East Antarctic ice; (4) increased ice discharge by West Antarctic ice streams, perhaps with a tenfold increase in ice velocity as now seen for Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers entering ice-free Pine Island Bay in the Amundsen Sea..."
Image credit: "Satellites have been continuously measuring sea ice in the polar regions since 1979. This image from March 3, 2017, shows the sea ice around the Antarctic continent at its lowest yearly minimum extent in the satellite record." Credit: NASA Scientific Visualization Studio
Why a Scientific Cruise to Antarctica Should Be On Your Bucket List. Here's a clip from a story at Travel + Leisure: "...Once, the white continent was the exclusive preserve of scientists, explorers, and whalers, but starting in the 1960s the entrepreneur Lars-Eric Lindblad began pioneering trips for lay travelers. From the outset, Lindblad saw science and tourism as integral partners, and he recognized that having travelers actively engage with Antarctica, side-by-side with experts, could play a valuable role in bolstering conservation of this great wilderness. That ethos has continued to guide and distinguish Lindblad Expeditions under the leadership of his son, Sven-Olof. Today the company operates two Antarctic ships — in collaboration with National Geographic — offering three itineraries between October and March, ranging from 14 to 24 days..."
Photo credit: Dan Westergren.