77 F. average high on June 8.
79 F. maximum temperature on June 8, 2016.
June 9, 2002: Extensive flash flood begins across northwest Minnesota. 14.55 inches would fall over the next 48 hours near Lake of the Woods. Floodwaters cover the city of Roseau. The Roseau River looked like a large lake from a satellite view.
Jungle-Like Heat and Humidity On The Way
A few weeks ago I went out on a (precarious) limb and predicted a slight cool and wet bias for the summer season. Which reminds me of my favorite proverb: Man plans - God laughs.
Models suggest frequent blips of slightly cooler, Canadian air for the northern tier states of the USA into mid-July, but a memorable heat spike is shaping up for Saturday, with some 90s spilling into early next week. Not sure we'll set any record highs, but with mid-90s and a dew point well into the 60s Saturday afternoon heat indices may exceed 105F.
Keep in mind your vehicle quickly becomes an oven, a hyper-local greenhouse effect. An outside temperature of only 80F can translate into 99F after only 10 minutes; 109F within 20 minutes.
T-storms rumble across northern Minnesota Saturday; a better chance of statewide T-storms by Sunday keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler. This noisy frontal boundary surges northward early next week with more 90s and heavy T-storms. I don't see any noticeable relief until late next week.
Get ready for a hot flash but I'm not yet convinced this is an omen of a searing summer to come.
Monday Heat Index. Heat is forecast to build across the Midwest and Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas by early next week; the combination of heat + high dew points capable of 100-105F heat indices from Texas to Sioux Falls and Des Moines, according to NOAA HPC.
Starting Hurricane Season Without Leaders of NOAA and FEMA Should "Scare the Hell Out of Everbody". CNN.com has details: "...The two agencies that protect the country's coast lines and its residents, NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are still without leaders -- positions that must be appointed by President Donald Trump and confirmed by the Senate. "That should scare the hell out of everybody," retired US Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré told CNN. "These positions help save lives." Honoré knows all too well the value that leadership plays during a crisis, as he commanded Joint Task Force Katrina. He coordinated military relief efforts in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Lt. Gen. Russel L. Honoré talks to his soldiers at Camp Shelby, Mississippi, on September 8, 2005. Despite concerns, FEMA and NOAA say they are prepared for the hurricane season and the aftermath of any storms that make landfall and cause damage..." (File image of Hurricane Dennis: NASA).
2016 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding. With slowly rising seas many cities no longer require a major storm for storm surge flooding as reported by NOAA NCDC: "...This month's State of the Climate report includes an annual update of the state of coastal high tide flooding. Sometimes called nuisance or sunny day flooding, this type of flooding occurs when water levels measured at a NOAA tide gauges exceed locally established heights associated with minor impacts, such as water on low-lying streets or infiltration into storm-water systems. Such coastal flooding is increasing in frequency, depth and extent in many areas of the U.S. due to on-going increases in local relative sea level. Decades ago, coastal flooding mostly occurred during strong storms. Today, it occurs more frequently during high-tide cycles and calmer weather. Though high tide flooding today is rarely life threatening, it is a serious concern in several communities, such as Norfolk, Virginia, Charleston, South Carolina and Miami, that are not protected by flood control structures that cities like New Orleans have in place.
- Several cities experienced more than a month (30 days) of daily flooding in 2016: Wilmington, NC (84 days); Charleston, SC (50 days); Honolulu, HI (45 days); Annapolis, MD (42 days); Savannah, GA (38 days); Washington D.C. (33 days); and Port Isabel, TX (31 days) due to a combination of low-lying coastal topography and high sea levels during 2016..."
Rare U.S. Floods To Become the Norm If Emissions Aren't Cut, Study Warns. Following up on the NOAA report above, here's a clip from The Guardian: "US coastal areas are set to be deluged by far more frequent and severe flooding events if greenhouse gas emissions aren’t slashed, with rare floods becoming the norm for places such as New York City, Seattle and San Diego, new research has found. The study, undertaken by researchers from Princeton and Rutgers universities, found that along all of the US coastline, the average risk of a 100-year flood will increase 40-fold by 2050. Such floods are statistically expected to occur only once every 100 years because of their severity, although this doesn’t mean these sort of floods never happen in consecutive years. The annual chance of such a flood is around 1%..."
U.S. Coastal Cities Will Flood More Often and More Severely, Study Warns. More perspective at InsideClimate News: "...Oppenheimer says he's most concerned about chronic, but less-extreme flooding along the East Coast, including the south shore of New York's Long Island, the low country around Charleston, S.C., and south Florida, where tidal flooding already has become an everyday occurrence. "These areas have terrain that's gently sloped," Oppenheimer said. "South Florida is really in trouble. Not only are they having a lot of nuisance flooding, but they sit on limestone, which makes it extremely difficult to build coastal defenses. These places really have to get on the ball and decide what they have to protect." But adapting for the risk takes time, political will and money..."
Map credit: Nature Climate Change.
Report: National Weather Service Meteorologists "Fatigued" and "Demoralized" by Understaffing. Just in case you missed this from Angela Fritz at Capital Weather Gang: "The employees of the National Weather Service are demoralized, according to a recent report by the Government Accountability Office. They are understaffed and spread thin, covering shifts and positions beyond what they were hired to fill. The weather never sleeps, and apparently neither does the Weather Service. Between 2014 and 2016, the number of vacant staff meteorologist positions increased 57 percent. In the same time, management vacancies decreased by 29 percent. The mission of the Weather Service — to protect lives and property — is critical, so the employees are completing the tasks. But it comes at a cost. The GAO used some pretty gloomy language to describe the employees’ current state of mind..."
Photo credit: "Army troops wade ashore on "Omaha" Beach during the "D-Day" landings, June 6, 1944. They were brought to the beach by a Coast Guard manned LCVP." (Photo/U.S. National Archives).
TODAY: Sunny, very warm. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 86
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mild and sticky. Low: 69
SATURDAY: Sunny and windy. Feels like 100F+ Winds: SW 10-20. High: 96 Heat Index: 105+
SUNDAY: Humid, locally heavy T-storms. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 68. High: 87
MONDAY: Sticky sunshine, stray T-storm. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 69. High: 91
TUESDAY: Sizzling sun, T-storms flare up late. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 73. High: 94
WEDNESDAY: Lingering T-storms, still very humid. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 71. High: 88
THURSDAY: More sun, slight drop in dew point. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 67. High: 89
Photo credit: "Journalist Chris Clayton writes for an audience filled with climate skeptics: farmers and leaders of agricultural businesses. He's telling them that a changing climate will disrupt their lives." Courtesy of Chris Clayton.
Graphic credit: Lazaro Gamio / Axios.
Photo credit: Randal Ford.