Sunday, July 30, 2017

An Average July (Temperature Wise) - Unsettled Weather Ahead

Average Temperatures This Month In Minnesota
Despite a few blasts of heat this month, most areas of Minnesota have seen around average temperatures for July. The Twin Cities is sitting at a little over a degree above average for the month, which should help make this the second straight month above average in the Twin Cities.
Temperatures have hit 90 five times this month in the Twin Cities, which is right on average (the 30 year average is 4.9 times).
An Average July - Unsettled Weather Ahead
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Douglas
July is almost gone, and it’s actually been a fairly average month in the temperature department across the Twin Cities. We have recorded five days this month with a high in the 90s, which is right on average for July. Our average temperature has been a little over a degree above average, which will make this the second month in a row with an above average monthly temperature – and the 22nd month of the past 23.
Temperatures to end out the month will continue to be around average, with highs in the low to mid 80s today. However, a change in the weather pattern comes in later this week, bringing with it rain and much cooler weather. Rain chances will be highest Tuesday and Thursday across the Twin Cities, with totals of a half an inch or more by the end of the week. The second system will help usher in air that is far below average for early August. Highs on Thursday will be stuck in the 60s – a good 10-20 degrees below average! The cooler weather won’t last – highs will be back around 80 again for the weekend.
Twin Cities Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Enjoy the sunshine! High 84. Low 66. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 3-8 mph.
TUESDAY: Afternoon storms. Some strong? High 84. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind W 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Late day rain. High 78. Low 59. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 3-8 mph.
THURSDAY: Showers. Feeling like late September. High 65. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Warming back up. PM shower chance. High 74. Low 59. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Afternoon clouds and isolated showers. High 77. Low 60. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Sunny skies. High 80. Low 60. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 3-8 mph.
This Day in Weather History
July 31st
1961: Very heavy rain falls at Albert Lea, where 6.7 inches is recorded in 24 hours.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 31st
Average High: 83F (Record: 105F set in 1988)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 47F set in 1924)
Average Precipitation: 0.14" (Record: 0.79" set in 1911)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 31st
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 8:40 PM
*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 42 minutes and 40 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 21 seconds

*Next Sunrise At/After 6 PM: August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM: August 8th (8:29 PM)
Minnesota Weather Outlook
We will end the month of July around average across southern Minnesota, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The warmest weather will be across parts of northern Minnesota, where upper 80s are likely. Places like Roseau and International Falls will be warmer than the Twin Cities Monday.
Temperatures will remain around average the next couple days, before a system moves in during the middle of the week helping to drop temperatures. Highs on Thursday are unlikely to make it out of the 60s in the Twin Cities. Warmer weather starts to make a return, however, as we head into the weekend and the first full week of August.
Fast-forwarding to Thursday, it is going to feel more like late September or early October across parts of southern Minnesota. Highs are unlikely to make it out of the 60s for areas like the Twin Cities and St. Cloud.
These temperatures Thursday are going to be a good 10-20 degrees below average across portions of southern Minnesota. Even though temperatures will be closer to average across northern Minnesota, they will still only be in the 70s and 5-10 degrees below average.
Through Wednesday morning, rainfall totals are expected to be light across the state, with less than a quarter of an inch expected in most places.
The best chances of rain this week will be Tuesday and Thursday in the Twin Cities, with the potential of a half an inch or more of rain. A few scattered opportunities then exist in northerly flow Wednesday and to end the week. Long range models are hinting at the potential of heavier rain moving in toward the end of next week.
A cold front pushing out of Canada will help spark some showers and storms late Monday across northern Minnesota. A few of those could be on the strong side, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
As that cold front drives south Tuesday, some of the stronger storms across southern Minnesota will be capable of large hail and damaging winds as well during the afternoon and evening hours.
National Weather Outlook
The best chance of storms Monday will be across parts of the Southwest into the western Southern Plains and across parts of Florida. Highs will be on the climb in parts of the Northwest, with highs in the 90s expected in Portland, OR. 80s are likely up the east coast, all the way into Maine.
The heaviest rain through Friday morning is expected over southern parts of the nation, with areas in the Southwest to western Southern Plains having the potential of over 2" of rain, and parts of Florida likely to pick up at least three inches.
Deep moisture and a stall frontal boundary early this week will help bring heavy rainfall to parts of Florida. Through Wednesday morning parts of the peninsula could pick up 2-3"+ of rain.
Meanwhile, abundant monsoonal moisture with passing systems will help create the potential of heavy rain across portion of the Texas panhandle into the first half of this week.
In the Northwest, heat will be the major story to begin the month of August, with record highs expected from Redding, CA to Portland, OR on Tuesday.
The heat continues into the day Wednesday, with record highs possible as far north as Seattle.
Thursday looks the be the hottest day at the moment for Seattle and Portland, and temperatures could approach all-time record highs. The all-time record high for Portland, OR is 107 set three times: August 8 & 10, 1981, and July 30, 1965. The warmest temperature in Seattle history is 103 set back on July 29, 2009. Seattle has a forecast high of 99 at the moment - they have only hit 99 or higher six times in recorded history.
Tampa Bay - And The Next Major Hurricane
With sea levels on the rise, Tampa Bay is somewhat of a sitting duck right now if a major hurricane struck the area. The damage could even be worse than what was observed during Katrina in New Orleans. More from the Washington Post: "Mark Luther’s dream home has a window that looks out to a world of water. He can slip out the back door and watch dolphins swim by his private dock. Shore birds squawk from nearby nests in giant mangroves.  He said it’s hard to imagine ever leaving this slice of paradise on St. Petersburg’s Bayou Grande, even though the water he adores is starting to get a little creepy."
50/50 Chance Of Rain? Not In Canada
Oh Canada... I actually kind of like this philosophy of having to make a decision one way or another. More from the CBC: "When it comes to forecasting the chance of rain or snow, Environment Canada's Guide to Public Forecasts is pretty clear: "The use of 50 per cent is not permitted."  Wait. Why not?  To understand, it's a good idea to start at the beginning: What exactly is probability of precipitation or POP?  Environment Canada defines it as "the chance that measurable precipitation' (0.2 mm of rain or 0.2 cm of snow) will fall on any random point of the forecast region during the forecast period."" (Image: Alistair Steele/CBC)
Iowa And Nebraska Farmers Taking A Hit Due To Dry Conditions
It's not only the High Plains that are dealing with drought right now. Farmers in Nebraska and Iowa are being hit as well. More from the Omaha World-Herald: "Sioux City-area farmer BJ Hayes is tired of seeing rain in the forecast only to end up with a few tenths of an inch on his corn crop. There are cracks in his soil, and his corn plants are producing smaller ears and ears with fewer kernels.  A deepening drought has become a stressful situation for many Nebraska and western Iowa farmers, made worse by the fact that the price for corn — down by about half since it soared in 2012 and 2013 — isn’t budging." (Image:   Despite some rain this week, there are still cracks in the soil on Matt Chambers’ fields in Audubon, Iowa. He’s expecting lower yields this year, and isn’t sure he’ll turn a profit. MATT CHAMBERS)
Rome Is Avoiding Water Rationing In A Drought... At The Moment
Drought isn't only striking areas in the U.S. - Rome has seen a drought, but they are avoiding water rationing at the moment. More from Reuters: "ROME (Reuters) - Rome water utility ACEA said on Friday the Italian capital had avoided water rationing after regional authorities modified a decree banning withdrawals from a drought-hit lake.  The city's mayor had called on the government to stop water rationing, which ACEA had said would have to be introduced on July 31 if it could not draw on Lake Bracciano, north of Rome. "
11th Lightning Death Of 2017

Unfortunately, the 11th lightning death of 2017 in the U.S. occurred Friday near Satellite Beach, FL. More from Florida Today: "Lightning struck two men, killing one, just north of Satellite Beach on Friday afternoon, according to the Brevard County Sheriff's Office and Brevard County Fire Rescue.  Brevard County Lifeguard Captain Ashley Nolan was the first to respond to help the men. The men were hit at SPRA Park in the 400 block of State Road A1A at the end of Berkeley Street."
Must Have Weather Gear
Popular Science recently had an issue about extreme weather, and some gear that you should have with that will withstand the elements. More: "No matter the theme of the issue, every Popular Science highlights some of the best gear available—be that shiny embodiments of ingenuity or familiar products that, even decades later, still pass every test. For the gearheads in our family, we decided to showcase—in one place, all handy and organized—every product from our latest issue, which is all about extreme weather." (Image: Sam Kaplan)
Fish More Polluted From Climate Change?
As heavier rain events become more common with a warming climate, we could see more fish being polluted due to increased nitrogen making it into our waterways. More from Scientific American: "What happens down on the farm could soon pose bigger problems downriver. Water undergoes deadly changes when enough fertilizers seep into rivers, lakes and streams. Algae growth explodes, oxygen levels drop and fish either leave the waterway or suffocate. Since the 1970s, large swaths of the Gulf of Mexico have transformed into so-called dead zones — covering an average area about the size of Connecticut — as agricultural runoff filters from the Mississippi River. The Chesapeake Bay and other fisheries have struggled with the problem, too." (Image: Phytoplankton blooms off the Atlantic coast in August 2015. Credit: Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory)
Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
 - D.J. Kayser

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