Potentially Thundery 4th - Hotter Late Next Week
"It's too cool for the lake Paul" my relatives complained. The sun was out, bald eagles circling overhead with a northerly breeze that would feel right at home in September. "Uh, would you like any cheese with that fine whine?"
While we enjoy free Canadian A/C much of America is baking under a July sun. I called one of my oldest buddies, Paul Magers, who just retired from WCBS-TV in Los Angeles, to see how he was coping with real heat out in his new home in Palm Springs. "It's forecast to be 115F in a few days. So you walk around thinking - hey - 107F doesn't feel so bad!" he laughed. I reminded him he was living in a desert. "Look, 80F is considered good sleeping weather out here."
The thing is, no matter where we live, we all tend to rationalize our weather, no matter how good or bad it is on a regular basis. "Hey, it's not THAT bad!" I think it may be part of the human condition.
Serious question: would you rather freeze or fry? Something in-between would be nice.
Today looks terrific: blue sky, highs near 80F with low humidity. The normally reliable ECMWF (European) model brings a few T-storms in Tuesday. No, I can't rule out old fashioned atmospheric firecrackers. Sticky air follows with low 90s by Thursday. But a cooler front provides timely relief by Saturday.
Soak it up, because oppressive western heat arrives here late next week.
Day 3-7 Weather Hazards. NOAA CPC has a summary of the various weather risks facing the USA in the coming days:
- Periods of heavy rain for parts of the Florida Peninsula, Mon-Fri, Jul 3-7.
- Heavy rain for parts of the southeast, Wed-Thu, Jul 5-6.
- Periods of heavy rain for parts of the central Great Plains, and Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, Mon-Thu, Jul 3-6.
- Much above-normal temperatures for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, Northern Rockies, and northern and central Great Plains, Mon-Fri, Jul 3-7.
- Much above-normal temperatures for the upper Yukon Valley of Alaska, Mon, Jul 3.
- Excessive heat for parts of the southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, Mon-Wed, Jul 3-5.
- Slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for much of the western and north-central U.S., Sat-Fri, Jul 8-14.
- Moderate risk of much above-normal temperatures for parts of the Intermoutain West, Northern and central Rockies, and Northern Great Plains, Sat-Mon, Jul 8-10.
- High risk of much above-normal temperatures for parts of the Northern Intermountain west and Northern Rockies, Sat, Jul 8.
- Slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for parts of the Southern Great Plains, Sat-Mon, Jul 8-10.
- Slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for parts of central mainland Alaska, Sat-Fri, Jul 8-14.
- Flooding possible or likely for parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes.
- Severe Drought across southern California, Hawaii, and the Northern and southern Plains.
I Can't Remember Ever Seeing This Before. 7 separate tornado warnings in New Hampshire and Maine on Saturday? Wow.
At Least 2 Tornadoes Confirmed in Maine Saturday. Details via WCSH6.com: "The National Weather Service confirms at least two tornades occurred in Maine on Saturday. Another possible tornado occurred near Harrison. Meteorologists say a high-end EF-1 tornado hit Bridgton. Several structures and vehicles were damaged by snapped trees on the west shore of Long Lake in the vicinity of Obelazy Lane. The tornado began on the southeast shore of Highland Lake before crossing through Bridgton..."
Photo credit: "Six of the eight damaged RC-135 surveillance planes had been returned to s ervice a week after the storm." U.S. Air Force.
Map credit: Eclipse2017.
Tsunami: An Underrated Hazard. David Bressan provides perspective at Forbes: "...Modern databases list more than 2,000 historic tsunamis. Most of these were recorded in historic documents, chronicles or even myths. The database shows that coastlines in the Caribbean Sea, the Pacific Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea and the Indonesian Sea are among the most vulnerable areas. Tsunamis can be triggered by movements along the seafloor, which are typically caused by earthquakes or underwater landslides. A tsunami that killed 40,000 people in December 1908 on Sicily, was probably not caused by the preceding earthquake, but rather a large landslide off the coast of Sicily (which likely had been triggered by the quake)..."
NOAA has more background information on tsunamis here.
Photo credit: "Peaches ready for packing and shipping at Lane Packing, a peach farm in Fort Valley, Ga." Grant Blankenship/Georgia Public Broadcasting.
As Sea Levels Rise, NOAA Scientists Work Toward Seasonal Tidal Flooding Forecasts. It no longer takes a storm (although that makes things far worse). As ocean levels rise all it takes today is a new or full moon, reports The Virginian-Pilot: "...A team of NOAA scientists recently began working toward a goal: to predict tidal flooding for Norfolk and coastal communities all over the country on a quarterly basis. They’re hoping that the seasonal forecasts will help everybody from emergency planners to homeowners be more attuned to the problem – and to the many conditions that can drive tides higher. “I think this is going to be an emerging thing,” William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer who’s helping lead the three-year project, said in a recent interview. “As sea level rise is continuing and impacts are growing and expected to become much worse, there’s going to be a need to say how often, when, where and how deep the water is expected to be...”
Photo credit: "Grzegorz Swiech models the latest streetwear in Krakow, Poland, a city plagued by particulate pollution." Photographer: Tomer Ifrah for Bloomberg Businessweek.
Photo credit: " Photo: James Glover II/Reuters.
Photo credit: Metformin pills. Will Warasila for WIRED.
Photo credit: "Seconds into the sub-two marathon attempt in Italy, Eliud Kipchoge (in orange) trails Zersenay Tadese (in light blue) and Lelisa Desisa (in white)." Cait Oppermann.
Image credit: "Vernon Reid found the music of Jimi Hendrix after he discovered Carlos Santana. He talks with The Post's Geoff Edgers about how the two guitar icons influenced his playing style." (Erin Patrick O'Connor/The Washington Post)
4TH OF JULY: Humid, few T-storms in the area. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 79
WEDNESDAY: Some sticky sun, isolated T-storm. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 67. High: 83
THURSDAY: Hot, steamy sun. Late thunder? Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 70. High: 91
FRIDAY: Blue sky, breezy & less humid. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 67. High: 83
SATURDAY: Sunny and comfortable with less wind. Winds: NW 5-10. Beautiful. Wake-up: 60. High: 78
SUNDAY: Sunny start, risk of PM T-storms. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 61. High: 84
Photo credit: "
Some international perspective:
Satellite Data Show Global Warming Worse Than Thought. Financial Tribune explains: "Climate change deniers have long pointed to satellite data showing lower temperatures than those recorded on the ground. However, new research has found an explanation for this apparent discrepancy, The Independent reported. The orbit of satellites around the Earth gradually decays over time due to friction in the Earth’s atmosphere and this gradually changes the time they pass over any one spot and this obviously has a significant effect on the temperature. Using information from the satellites, the scientists, Carl Mears and Frank Wentz, of Remote Sensing Systems, a California-based research company, developed a new method of correcting for the changes. And what they found was startling. The rate of warming was about a third higher at 0.174 degrees Celsius per decade between 1976 and 2016, compared to 0.134°C per decade..."
The Pope's Moral Case for Taking On Climate Change. Here's an excerpt from The Atlantic: "The majority of people living on our planet profess to be believers.”It is a statement of fact, an intellectual premise, a gentle claim of territory. In his new encyclical on environmental degradation, Laudato Si, Pope Francis is not just addressing the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics. He’s tagging God into the global conversation on climate change. The document, which was leaked on Monday by an Italian newspaper and officially released by the Vatican on Thursday, bitterly condemns the human failures that have eroded much of the environment. The pope rattles off fact after fact about the pitiful state of the earth: Pesticides have contaminated farmers’ soil. Air pollution has poisoned cities. Man-made waste checkers landscapes. There’s not enough clean water for people to drink or tropical forests to regulate carbon in the atmosphere. Whole species of animals are dying out..."
Image credit: Gregorio Borgia / AP.