IRMA Pounds the Southeast - High & Dry For Us Until Friday

Manatee Rescue

This poor manatee was subject to IRMA as the water receded out of Tampa Bay as Hurricane IRMA approached. A number of people helped to rescue this poor manatee as they dragged it to deeper water. 

 

IRMA Makes Landfall As A Major Category 4 Storm

This was the radar loop from early Sunday morning as Hurricane Irma officially made landfall along the Florida Keys. After briefly dropping down to category 3 strength during the day Saturday, IRMA intensified to a category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130mph (pressure at 929mb) just before making landfall in Cudjoe Key in the Lower Florida Keys at 9:10am Sunday morning. Interestingly, NEVER on record has there been (2) Category 4 hurricanes to make U.S. landfall in one Atlantic hurricane season until now! Hurricane Irma in the Florida Keys on Sunday, September 10th and Hurricane Harvey on Friday, August 25th. At 3:35pm, there was a second landfall near Marco Island, FL  as a category 3 storm with winds of 115mph (pressure at 940mb).

Satellite Loops of IRMA

Here are two satellite loops of IRMA from early Sunday. The first is the visible satellite as the sun comes up and makes landfall with the Lower Florida Keys. The 2nd is IR Satellite loop, which the eye of IRMA and a pretty intense eyewall surrounding it as it roars into the Keys. Note the size of IRMA, which is much larger than the state of Florida. So even though the brunt of the storm (wind and storm surge) will be felt along the west side of the state, the entire state will still see significant impacts.

Tracking IRMA

Here's the official National Hurricane Center track, which continues to show the storm tracking north along the west coast of Florida on Monday. The good news is that the storm will weaken as soon as it moves over land, but again, due to the size and strength of the storm, widespread and significant effects will be felt across the entire state of Florida and eventually into the Southeastern US as we head through the first half of the week. The storm will continue to weaken through the first half of the week, but as it moves toward the Middle Mississippi Valley, heavy rain and gusty winds will likely there.

 

Tracking IRMA

Here's the GFS (American Model) track as Hurricane IRMA lifts west-northwest through the first half of the week. Note that strong winds and heavy rain will begin to diminish quite rapidly as it moves inland. However, this will still be a very potent and life-threatening storm for many in Florida and in the Southeast.

How Much Rain?

Here's a look at the rainfall potential through Friday, which suggests significant rainfall of  6" to 10"+ possible across much of Florida, which will likely lead to flooding. Some 4" to 6"+ amounts may be found across much of Georgia into parts of South Carolina, while a good chunk of the Southeast will likely see some 2" to 4"+ tallies as IRMA moves through the region this week.

 

Tropical Watches & Warnings

Take a look at how widespread the tropical alerts stretch into the southeast, where tropical force (39mph to 73mph) and hurricane force (74mph+) winds are expected. Storm surge along the coast west coast of Florida is also expected to be a MAJOR concerns as the storm scrapes the coast.

Highest Wind Gusts Expected Thru Wednesday

Here's a look at the peak wind gusts that can be expected through midweek. Note that the most significant winds of 100mph+ will be found in the western half of Florida and especially along the Florida coast. However, hurricane force (74mph+) gusts will likely extend into eastern Florida, much of Georgia and into parts of Mississippi and South Carolina. This is a large storm that will have wide reaching effects.

 

Highest Wind Gusts Expected AM Monday

WOW! Here's the highest wind gusts expected on Monday morning and note how widespread the 100mph+ gusts could be across the state of Florida and how far inland it extends. Again, IRMA is a very large storm that will have wide-reaching effects. As of AM Sunday, more than 1 million people were reported without power across just the state of Florida. Power outages will likely extend into the northern parts of the state and across parts of the Southeast. With as many power outages expected across the region, it will likely take days and weeks to restore power to everybody.

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Storm Surge Forecast
Here's a look at the storm surge forecast from PM Sunday into Monday as IRMA scrapes the west coast of Florida. The worst case scenario would be for the storm to stay just west or right along the coast as the storm could continue to feed off of the warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, which would help to keep IRMA's strength. Also, the northeast quadrant of the storm is always the worst in terms of winds, waves and storm surge, so as IRMA lifts north along the coast, the northeast quadrant of the storm will hit very vulnerable areas along the coast from Tampa to the Big Bend of Florida.

 

 

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Still Tracking JOSE in the Atlantic

No rest for the weary in the Atlantic Basin with another strong hurricane still floating around. As of AM Sunday, JOSE was still a major, category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 130mph!

 

Tracking JOSE

Here's the official National Hurricane Center forecast for JOSE over the next several days. Note that JOSE looks to stay east of the Bahamas and hopefully will stay there. However, 

Tracking JOSE

Here are the spaghetti plots for JOSE over the next several days, which suggests that after JOSE makes a loop east of the Bahamas over the week ahead, JOSE could then start moving toward the East Coast. Stay tuned for more.

 

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Atlantic Outlook Next 5 Days

Here's the Atlantic overlook, which shows a very active situation. Note that as of Sunday, there were two category 4 hurricanes in that of IRMA and JOSE, with another wave in the Eastern Atlantic with a moderate chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days.

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September 10th - Official Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

It's only fitting that on the official peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (September 10th), Hurricane IRMA made landfall with the Lower Florida Keys at 9:10am on Sunday, September 10th. Note that the season, on average, remains pretty active through the rest of September and throughout October, but falls dramatically into November. Keep in mind that the official end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is November 30th.

 

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PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Map

It certainly has been a fairly active first half of 2017 with 1344 preliminary tornado reports through September 9th. Note that this is the most tornadoes through September 9th since 2011, when there were 1,782 reports. The map below shows the distribution of the tornadoes so far this year.

PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Count
According to NOAA's SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1344 (through September 9th). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were 1,782 tornadoes. Keep in mind there was a major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast region from April 25-28, 2011 that spawned nearly 500 tornadoes, some of which were deadly. That outbreak is known as the Super Outbreak of 2011 and has gone down in history as one of the biggest, costliest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in history.

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National Weather Hazards Ahead...

1.) Heavy rain from north-central portions of Florida to North Carolina and Kentucky, extending as far west as western Tennessee, Mon-Tue, Sep 11-12.
2.) Heavy rain over extreme southern portions of the Alaska panhandle, Mon, Sep 11.
3.) High winds for much of the Southeast, Mon, Sep 11.
4.) Significant waves from about Cape Canaveral, Florida, to near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Mon, Sep 11.
5.) Significant waves along most of the west coast of Florida, Mon, Sep 11.
6.) Flooding is occurring or imminent over far southern Florida, and near the upper Texas coast.
7.) Flooding is likely from about Lake Okeechobee, Florida, northward through most of Georgia, and adjacent parts of Alabama.
8.) Flooding is possible for portions of the Carolinas, eastern Georgia, and eastern Tennessee.
9.) Severe Drought across the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and Hawaii.

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"The unprecedented drought that's crippling Montana and North Dakota"
It came without warning, and without equivalent. Now a flash drought is fueling fires and hurting the lives of those who work the land. When Rick Kirn planted his 1,000 acres of spring wheat in May, there were no signs of a weather calamity on the horizon. Three months later, when he should have been harvesting and getting ready to sell his wheat, Kirn was staring out across vast cracked, gray, empty fields dotted with weeds and little patches of stunted wheat. “It’s a total loss for me,” said Kirn, who operates a small family wheat farm on the Fort Peck Reservation, an area of north-eastern Montana that lies right in the heart of the extreme climatic episode. “There’s nothing to harvest.”Kirn’s story is typical across the high plains in Montana and the Dakotas this summer, where one of the country’s most important wheat growing regions is in the grips of a crippling drought that came on with hardly any warning and, experts say, is without precedent."
See more from the Guardian HERE:
(A wildfire burns in the Lolo national forest in Montana in August. The severe drought has served as ideal conditions for continued fires. Photograph: Rion Sanders/AP via The Guardian)

 

Latest Drought Monitor
Here's the latest drought update from the US Drought Monitor, which shows EXCEPTIONAL drought conditions, which now covers nearly 26% of Montana. Note that 91% of the state is in a MODERATE drought. In North Dakota, more than 25% of the state is considered to be in an EXTREME drought.



Rain Needed to End Drought

Exceptional and Extreme drought conditions are in place over parts of Montana and North and South Dakota due to several weeks/months of hot and dry weather. The image below suggests how much rain would be needed to end the drought, which suggests nearly 6" to 12" or more!

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Chetco Bar Fire - 5 Miles Northeast of Brookings, OR
The Chetco Bar Fire in near Brookings, Oregon is a very large wildfire in the Western US that started on Wednesday,  July 12th by lightning and has grown to more than 182,000 acres! There are more than 1,400 people working on this fire, which is only 5% contained. The estimated containment date is set for Sunday, October 15th.
See more from Inciweb HERE:

Ongoing Large Wildfires

Here's a look at the current wildfire map across the country. Continued hot and dry weather has helped to spark several wildfires across the Western US. There have even been fires popping up in the Eastern U.S., two of the larger fires are burning in Florida.
Here's a list of all the current large wildfires from Inciweb:

National Smoke Analysis

Here's the projected wildfire smoke concentration for midday Monday, which suggests that smoke from wildfires burning across parts of Western Canada and the Western US could continue to linger around the Northwest and Midwest. There also appears a very high concentration of smoke across parts of the Northeast. If you are in these areas, air quality could be a little poor, but these areas may also be enjoying very interesting looking sunrises/sunsets, which tend to look hazy or reddish-orange.

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National Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook through the end of next week, which shows active weather conditions across Southeastern part of the country as IRMA lifts north through the region. Strong winds, heavy rain and even tornadoes will be possible through the early week. Weather conditions will also turn more active in the Western US as a storm system moves in during the 2nd half of the week.

Severe Threats: Monday & Tuesday

According to NOAA's SPC, Hurricane IRMA will continue to keep the threat of severe weather in place across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States through the early week time frame. One of the main concerns will be the potential of tornadoes as the storm lifts north through the region. 

Excessive Rainfall Potential Monday & Tuesday

According to NOAA's WPC, there is a MODERATE risk of excessive rain on Monday across parts of the as heavy rain from Hurricane IRMA lifts north. By Tuesday, the heaviest rainfall will likely start fading, but there is still a MARGINAL risk of heavy rainfall 

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Irma Delivers a Rare Direct Strike on Tampa Bay
By Paul Douglas

You might think the most hurricane-prone metro area in America is Miami or New Orleans. Number One on the list is Tampa. 700 miles of stunning sugar-sand, but a shallow bay can magnify storm surge during a hurricane.

The Tampa area hasn't been hit by a big hurricane since 1921. Since then the population has mushroomed, with development on low-lying terrain. Only New Orleans is more prone to flooding than Pinellas County.

For only the 4th time since 1851 a major hurricane will track from south to north, grinding right up the Gulf Coast of Florida, passing directly over Tampa Bay this morning.

Irma's northward turn was later than expected days ago. Miami and the Atlantic Coast was largely spared the worst of the storm. But damage from Naples to Clearwater will be extensive.

Our weather is still yawn-worthy with sticky 80s all this week. I hope you didn't pack the shorts away yet. T-storms sprout Friday and Saturday, with another push of cooler air next week.

With a slow-motion disaster unfolding in Florida kick me in the (Doppler) if I ever complain about cold fronts.
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Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Warm hazy sun. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 81.

MONDAY NIGHT:  Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: SW 5. Low: 60

TUESDAY: Plenty of sun. Feels like Mid-August. Winds: E 3-8. High: 83.

WEDNESDAY: Hazy-blue sky, warmer than average. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 84.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight thunder risk. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 63. High: 82.

FRIDAY: Humid. More numerous thunderstorms. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 64. High: 81.

SATURDAY: Sticky with more showers, T-storms. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 66. High: 83.

SUNDAY: Showers taper, cooler breeze. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 61. High: 76.
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This Day in Weather History
September 11th

1980: 3.35 inches of rain fall in St. Cloud.

1942: A line of thunderstorms races across Minnesota at 70 mph, producing severe winds that would destroy 651 barns in a 30 mile wide, 180 mile long path.

1931: The daytime high in St. Cloud was 96 degrees.

1931: Summer still has its grip on Minnesota, with a high of 111 degrees at Beardsley.

1900: The soggy remains of the Galveston Hurricane bring 6.65 inches of rain to St. Paul over two days.

1807: Thick smoky weather is noted at Pembina.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 11th

Average High: 74F (Record: 96F set in 1931)
Average Low: 55F (Record: 35F set in 1962)

Record Rainfall: 3.11" set in 1900
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 11th

Sunrise: 6:47am
Sunset: 7:31pm

Hours of Daylight: 13hours & 08mins

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~3 minutes and 4 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20th): ~2 hours & 54 minutes
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Moon Phase for September 11th at Midnight
1.0 Days Before Last Quarter

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Weather Outlook For Monday

Monday will be a fairly mild day with highs in the 70s and 80s across much of the state. Dewpoints will also be a bit sticky as many get into the 60s

Weather Outlook For Monday

Winds will be pretty light across the region with some 5-10mph breezes out of the southwest across the southern half the state and out of the west-northwest in the northern half of the state.

 

Weather Outlook For Monday

Monday will be another mostly sunny day across much of the Upper Midwest. Enjoy the sunshine and mild weather while you can, it appears that weather conditions will sour a bit by the upcoming weekend.

 

UV Index for Monday - HIGH

The UV Index for Monday will be HIGH, which means that it will only 20 to 30 minutes or less to burn unprotected skin. With that said, if you are planning on spending any extended length of time outside, make sure you wear appropriate attire and lather on the sun block!

 

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Simulated Radar Ahead...

Here's the simulated radar from Monday to AM Saturday, which shows a very quiet week ahead until the upcoming weekend 

Rainfall Potential Ahead

The rainfall forecast  through PM Friday suggests rainfall finally moving back into the region after several days of dry weather. The heaviest looks to be found across the northwestern part of the state with some 1"+ tallies possible.

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Pollen Forecast

Itchy, sneezy? I tend to get a little more allergic as we head into September until the first frosts of the season start to arrive. With that said, according to pollen.com, the allergy forecast for Minneapolis suggests medium to medium-high to levels over the next few days. AHHH-CHOOO!!!

See more from Pollen.com HERE:

 

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Minneapolis Temperature Outlook

Here's the temperature outlook through September 24th, which shows temps warming into the 80s this week, but will fall into the 60s and 70s as we head into the 2nd half of the month.

6 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook from September 16th through the 20th suggests warmer than average temperatures settling back in across much of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Central part of the country.

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Extended Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook through September 20th shows that a good chunk of the Eastern and Southern U.S. will be warmer than average, but the Northwestern US will remain cooler than average.

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5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the next several days could produce areas of locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Southeastern and Northwestern US. The remnants of IRMA will continue to  push through the Southeast through the first part of the week. The next system moving into the Western US will produce areas of 1" to 2" rainfall tallies. Note that some of the heaviest will be found in Montana, where they really need it!

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