72 F. average high on September 15.
76 F. high on September 15, 2016.
September 16, 2006: A rapidly forming tornado hits Rogers just before 10pm, causing one fatality.
September 16, 1992: New Market receives nearly a foot of rain. A bridge collapses during a flood in northern Le Sueur County.
September 16, 1955: An F1 tornado touches down in Mille Lacs and Kanabec Counties, causing 1 fatality and $500,000 in damages.
Good News for the Corn Crop - Tracking Jose
"My parents didn't want to move to Florida, but they turned sixty and that's the law" joked Jerry Seinfeld.
When your kids are young, you teach them. When you get older, they teach you. "Only pay for what you actually USE" my oldest son preaches. Uber. VRBO. Airbnb.
I love the idea of having a place in the Sunshine State, but I honestly don't want to watch that much of "The Weather Channel" or "WeatherNation". Hurricanes freak me out. So we rent a place on the Panhandle & pray for mercy and redemption, along with full-time Florida residents. Suddenly our severe thunderstorms seem tolerable.
Some of the computer models bring Hurricane Jose perilously close to New England in 3 days. Good grief. This will wind up being the most destructive & expensive hurricane season since 2005.
A run of 80s has helped with crop maturation, according to Mark Seeley. Expect 80s and a few strong/severe T-storms later today, but a cooler front dries us out on Sunday. Warmer air returns next week, and September should wind up milder than average.
Another super-sized autumn for Minnesota? Probably.
* NOAA NAM forecast map valid midday Tuesday courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.
* Two distinct risks of hurricane landfall over the continental USA over the next 10 days.
* Odds favor that "Jose" will brush Cape Cod and southern New England with tropical storm-force winds and high surf by Wednesday, but the brunt of the storm will remain offshore.
* Second risk of landfall September 24-26 from a system still strengthening 700 miles east of the Windward islands. This second storm has a better chance of making a direct landfall on the USA and needs to be monitored carefully in the coming days.
* We are just past the midway point of hurricane season. The threats to the USA are not over yet. The same unusually warm water that helped to spin up Harvey and Irma will spawn additional storms in the coming weeks.
Summary: Odds favor Jose taking a track out to sea next week, but it may be a close call, with significant coastal flooding and beach erosion from the Outer Banks to Cape Cod. A second storm may approach or even strike the USA around September 25-26, with the greatest potential risk over southeastern states. Saying anything more than that would be irresponsible this far out, but we want to give our clients as much lead time as possible for preparation, risk mitigation and business continuity. Stay tuned for additional updates.
Paul Douglas, Senior Meteorologist, Praedictix
La Nina Watch Issued. A cooling trend in the equatorial Pacific could tilt the odds in favor a colder winter for much of the USA, certainly colder than last winter. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says there's a 55-60% probability of a La Nina during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter months. Stay tuned.
2-Minute Doppler Radar Loops. The loops above use radar data from multiple sources, including NOAA Nexrad, FAA and commercial and mobile radars. Standard (commodity) Doppler radar loops are 6-minute intervals for precipitation. Check out the mega-loops from Irma and Harvey, courtesy of AerisWeather.
"For the First Time in 300 Years, There's Not a Single Living Person on the Island of Barbuda." USA TODAY has the harrowing details: "Barbuda
has been left completely devastated by Hurricane Irma. An estimated
95% of Barbuda’s structures are damaged, and the entire island of around
1,800 people has been evacuated. “The damage is complete,”
says Ambassador Ronald Sanders, who has served as Antigua and Barbuda’s
ambassador to the U.S. since 2015. “For the first time in 300 years,
there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda — a
civilization that has existed on that island for over 300 years has now
been extinguished.” According to Sanders, Irma was “the most ferocious,
cruel and merciless storm” in the island’s history. The hurricane was
378 miles wide when it descended on Barbuda, which is just 62 square
miles. “This was a huge monster,” he says. “The island and the people on
the island had absolutely no chance...”
Eastern Tennessee Air Patrol Photographer Saw "Total Devastation" of Hurricane Irma. A story at Knoxville News Sentinel put the damage into stark perspective: "...Although
more than a million people lost power and many structures were
destroyed, Puerto Rico was spared from much worse damage as the massive
hurricane just missed the island on Sept. 7. Smaller islands like St.
Thomas and St. John a little to the east weren’t as fortunate. “They
took the brunt of the hurricane,” he said. “Totally devastated. “Taking
pictures from 1,000 feet, there would be a street with 10 houses and
seven or eight would have their roof gone and be down to the foundation;
one or two might look fine. The older homes there were not built to
handle this...”
Photo credit: "Some houses were shattered, others untouched when Hurricane Irma hit St. Thomas Island." (Photo: FEMA)
Irma: A Storm Like No Other. Check out some of the records broken by Hurricane Irma, courtesy of Philip Klotzbach, a tropical meteorologist at Colorado State University. You can follow him on Twitter.
How Powerful Can a Hurricane Get? Is there an upper speed limit? Turns out it's a function of water temperature, and the depth of that warm layer of water. Here's an excerpt from IFLScience: "...Based on this mechanism then, it’s reasonable to assume that the warmer the surface water is, the stronger the peak winds will be. Although there are plenty of complicating factors, and the datasets before 1970 are somewhat unreliable, it appears that the scientific basis for windier hurricanes is there. There is a link between sea surface temperatures and wind speeds, but the exact numbers have yet to be nailed down. Theoretically though, as long as the oceans warm, then there is once again no upper limit on the peak wind strength of hurricanes. Hurricanes have already pointed this out to us: Although not sustained wind, a single gust generated by 1996’s Tropical Cyclone Olivia clocked in at 407 km/h (253 mph), almost the same as those at the fringes of Jupiter’s Great Red Spot..."
Image credit: "The eye of Hurricane Jose from space." Copernicus/Antti Lipponen.
Image credit: "When Kyle Parry returned to his home in Lumberton, Texas, after Hurricane Harvey hit, it was a complete loss. Everything was under water, except one very special thing." Wochit
Raiders of the Storm: The Data Science Behind Weather Prediction. ZDNet has an interesting article: "...Atmospheric science relies on a combination of data, but Capps explains that today the primary source is satellite imagery. That does not mean pretty pictures though. Satellite imagery comes in different sizes and shapes: some satellites operate in the black and white spectrum, others in infrared, some imagery can be useful to identify and measure clouds, others to measure winds over the oceans or convection. And what about sensor data; are they used as well? It depends. Capps says they are mostly used when doing predictions at a local, granular level to ground truth weather models, when using reliable equipment. Ingesting live data into weather models is another use case, but for Capps this has not proven to be that useful..."
Rebuilding the Gulf Coast, Preparing For The Next Hurricane. An Op-Ed at The Philadelphia Tribune caught my eye: "...Texas needs a 2.0 strategy; a reset, for lack of a better term. This means addressing the immediate crisis, something that should be a “national” priority. There should be no embarrassment about the federal government playing the leading role. That is one of the central purposes of government. Yet, more is needed. Any rebuilding plan needs to consider the existing environment and consider the possibility of future environmental disasters. How can a metropolitan area constructed on the least permeable clay-based soil ignore the need for efficient rainwater removal systems? How can multiple oil, gas and chemical plants be constructed with so few safeguards? How can so little consideration of public transportation systems be given to the fourth-largest city and metropolitan area in the U.S.? What does this mean for the population in the immediate area? What about the impact on the land? These are all questions that must be factored into the rebuilding of the eastern part of the state..."
Abandon Florida? Not Quite. But It's Time for a Retreat From Flood Zones. Asked a different way, how long do you want to keep subsidizing people to keep rebuilding in perpetual flood zones? Vox reports: "...But the potential of strategic retreat remains largely untapped, even though sea level rise threatens to inundate 4 million to 13 million Americans this century. Florida alone is home to 1,601 “severe repetitive loss properties”
— properties that, on average, flood every two to three years and have
been rebuilt five times with the help of taxpayer money. Harris County,
Texas, which includes Houston, has close to 2,000 such properties. Analysts have already called for the government to purchase homes flooded by Harvey and Irma
and restore those properties to open space. Moving to safer ground will
be just one strategy among many: We’ll need sea walls in some places,
stricter building codes in others, and a change in where new
subdivisions, highways, and hospitals are built. Attacking global
warming must be part of the solution: Continued emissions of
heat-trapping gases drive up the risk of rising seas..."
Real Estate Industry Blocks Sea-Level Warnings That Could Crimp Profits on Coastal Properties. The State has a timely article on the state regulators and realtors with their fingers in the dike: "...These studies warn that Florida, the Carolinas and other southeastern states face the nation’s fastest-growing rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion — as much as 3 feet by the year 2100, depending on how quickly Antarctic ice sheets melt. In a recent report, researchers for Zillow estimated that nearly 2 million U.S. homes could be literally underwater by 2100, if worst-case projections become reality. This is not good news for people who market and build waterfront houses. But real estate lobbyists aren’t going down without a fight. Some are teaming up with climate change skeptics and small government advocates to block public release of sea-level rise predictions and ensure that coastal planning is not based on them..."
Photo credit: "Hurricane Irene hammered the Outer Banks of North Carolina in August of 2011, eroding beaches and leaving several waterfront homes, including these in Nags Head, exposed to the waves. Authorities later condemned these homes, and they have since been removed. Scientists say sea-level rise is accelerating in North Carolina and other Southeast states, putting thousands of waterfront homes at risk." John D. Simmons Charlotte Observer.
The Race Against Heat. The Verge
asks an important question: how do you cool a warming planet of 7.5
billion people without making the warming worse? Here's an excerpt: "...The world is on track
to add 700 million new ACs by 2030, and 1.6 billion by 2050, largely in
hot, developing countries like India and Indonesia. But the AC boom
threatens to worsen the crisis it’s responding to, and widen the divide
between those who can afford to stay cool and those left out in the
heat. Air conditioners use refrigerants, and some of the most common
types — hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs — are powerful greenhouse gases,
with thousands of times the warming potential of carbon dioxide. If HFC
use continues to grow at its current pace, these chemicals could make up
as much as 19 percent
of emissions by 2050. International initiatives are set to phase down
the worst offenders, but air conditioners contribute to climate change
in a second way: they consume a tremendous amount of electricity.
Handling the growing load will require adding thousands of new power
plants to the grid..."
Image credit: Jun Cen.
All Roads Paved with Asphalt Trap 90% of the Sun's Heat - That's a Problem. The solution? Paint it white, according to Big Think: "...For cities the problem is even bigger. On top of the rising temperatures, the urban heat island effect results in an additional 1.8 to 5.4°F burden for urban dwellers during the day and up to 22°F in the evenings.
Concrete buildings, asphalt paved roads radiating accumulated heat
throughout the night, and lack of trees contribute to the making of
scorching cities. Active measures will be needed to reduce the risk of
heat-related health problems. It is no surprise that LA is one of the
first cities to take such measures. The urban heat island effect makes
LA almost six degrees hotter than the surrounding desert, and the heat causes 60 to 70 deaths every summer. Mayor Eric Garcetti has an ambitious plan to reduce the city’s average temperature by 3 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 20 years..."
Graphic credit: "On a sunny summer afternoon, urban air can be 1-3C (2-5F) warmer than nearby rural air." Berkeley Lab
Photo credit here.
TODAY: Sticky sun, a few strong to severe T-storms. Winds: S 8-13. High: 84
SATURDAY NIGHT: T-storms likely, locally heavy rain. Low: 56
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, drier - more pleasant. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 72
MONDAY: Patchy clouds, isolated shower. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 55. High: 71
TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, cool. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 59. High: 73
WEDNESDAY: Warm and sticky, few T-storms.Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 64. High: 84
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, feels like August. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 66. High: 86
FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms likely. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 70. High: 81
Climate Stories...
Photo credit: "Climeworks, the world’s first direct air capture plant, opened in June. It hopes to sell its concentrated CO2 to companies producing fuels." Photograph: Julia Dunlop.
Monster Storms Change Coastlines, Not Minds on Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of a particularly insightful story at Bloomberg: "...Research shows monster storms may only harden people’s position, underscoring already entrenched beliefs about the role humans play in warming the planet. "The climate movement can’t depend on the weather to make its political case," said Robert Brulle, a sociologist at Drexel University who studies environmental activism. "We have a window of opportunity to draw attention to the issue -- and then three weeks from now we’ll be talking about something else." Environmental disasters, including an oil spill off the California coast, toxic pollution emanating from New York’s Love Canal and Ohio’s Cuyahoga River bursting into flames, helped catalyze the modern-day ecological movement, shifting public views. But unlike climate change, the causes were clearer; there was no need for scientists to interpret data or model scenarios..."
Photo credit: "A resident outside his flooded home in Bonita Springs, Florida, on Sept. 12." Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg.
Photo credit: Geoff Johnson for POLITICO.
How Climate Change Can Hit Your Small Business. A post at USA TODAY resonated: "...Here’s how disasters caused or exacerbated by climate change are likely to hit your own small business:
1.
Higher insurance rates. Wherever you live, you may now find yourself in
a disaster-prone area with higher insurance rates. As I write this,
tropical storms are now hitting inland areas never before hit by such
weather.
2. Loss of
business. When a disaster hits, even if your business is thousands of
miles away, your suppliers or customers may suffer. Your cash flow and
credit will take a hit.
3.
Loss of tourist dollars. Tourist areas, such as coastal areas,
mountains (think ski areas), forests, are all particularly susceptible
to climate-related events. If your business depends on tourists, you’re
very vulnerable.
4. Fewer
resources. Americans pull together after natural disasters, providing
both government and private relief. But dollars spent on disaster
recovery aren’t available to you for small business loans, economic
development in your community, purchases in your business..."
Photo credit: NOAA.
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