69 F. average high on September 22.
73 F. high on September 22, 2016.
September 23, 1995: 0.2 inches of snow falls in the St. Cloud area.
September 23, 1985: Early snow falls over portions of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Just under a half inch (0.4) is recorded at MSP Airport, mostly during the afternoon.
September 23, 1937: From summer to winter. The temperature was 101 at Wheaton. Then a cold front came through causing the mercury to tumble below freezing.
Sticky & Stormy Here - Imagining the Unimaginable
Remind me not to whine about the humidity, or the thunderstorms, or the inevitable cold fronts anytime soon. Our weather woes are embarrassingly trivial compared to what residents from Texas and Florida to Puerto Rico and the Caribbean are facing.
It's hard for Minnesotans to comprehend a mega-storm like Maria, which raked Puerto Rico with 150 mph wind gusts. Imagine the worst severe storm you've ever encountered; multiply wind speeds by 2, and then have it last the better part of 8 hours.
Maria was the rough equivalent of a 50-mile wide EF-4 tornado; one that wouldn't go away. The risk of starvation, infection, disease & civil unrest will be off the scale in coming weeks. Sadly, many who survived the storm may not survive Maria's aftermath.
After a heat index above 100F yesterday 100F yesterday, today brings highs in the 80s and sauna-like dew points above 70F. Storms flare up today; now Sunday now looks drier and sunnier. The farther you drive up I-35 or I-94, the greater the odds of running into puddles this weekend.
We dry out next week, with Fall-like highs in the 60s.
* Image above courtesy of NASA's International Space Station.
Fall Color Update. Colors are peaking from near Bemidji to Warroad and Roseau. The Brainerd Lakes and North Shore are still 1-2 weeks away from peak color. Map courtesy of the Minnesota DNR.
Praedictix Briefing: Issued Friday morning, September 22nd, 2017:
* Power continues to be out for all of Puerto Rico in the wake of Maria, and likely will be for up to a half a year, according to the mayor of San Juan. The Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority has said that they hope to get some areas back up within weeks if it is possible. Many communication links continue to be down, which means the extent of the damage is unknown in spots. Flooding continues along some rivers – mainly in northern and eastern Puerto Rico – but river levels are decreasing. President Donald Trump issued a disaster declaration for Puerto Rico Thursday.
* For recovery efforts in Puerto Rico, scattered showers and storms will continue across the region through the weekend. Heat index values are expected to be near 100 across parts of the region, making conditions unpleasant.
* Maria is impacting the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas this morning as a major Category 3 hurricane. Heavy rain (up to 20”), damaging storm surge of 9-12 feet and hurricane-force winds can be expected throughout the day.
* Maria will continue to move in a north to northwest direction over the next five days, bringing the system away from the Bahamas into the weekend.
* Confidence is increasing that Maria will stay offshore the East Coast into next week, curving back out into the Atlantic by the end of the week. Impacts such as high surf and rip currents can still be expected along the East Coast from Maria, however. By early next week, tropical storm force winds will also be possible along the Outer Banks due to an expansive wind field associated with Maria.
* Even though Jose has become post-tropical off the New England coast, the system is still bringing tropical storm conditions to Cape Cod with gusts over 50 mph at times. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place. Jose will continue to weaken over the next several days.
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
Summary: The Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas will continue to see hurricane conditions due to category 3 Maria during the day as the system continues to push off to the northwest. Maria will continue on a north to northwest track into early next week, meaning the system is likely to remain offshore the Southeast Coast. During this time the system is likely to undergo slow weakening. Current model output shows that by the middle of next week Maria will get pushed east, further out into the Atlantic. Confidence is increasing that Maria will not approach the East Coast, but we will continue to monitor the system over the next several days. Jose, which is now a post-tropical system, is still bringing tropical storm force conditions to Cape Cod and the Islands today. Jose will continue to weaken through the weekend.
Meteorologist D.J. Kayser, Praedictix
Anatomy of a Disaster.
Wednesday morning Category 4 Hurricane Maria tracked over Puerto Rico,
knocking out the NOAA NEXRAD Doppler radar on the island, in fact all
radars went down as winds reached 150 mph in some locations. But the
weather satellites (including non-operational GOES-16 above) kept on
working, a reminder of how reliant, how dependent we are on satellites.
They provide much of the "initialization data", the raw fuel, that goes
into the weather models. Before the first weather satellites was
launched (TIROS-1 in 1960) we had to rely on ship reports in the
Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to have any clue where tropical
systems were. Ships! Now we take for granted that we can instantly call
up Doppler radar images or satellite pictures, 24 hours a day.
But
it costs money to maintain these weather systems, so (in my humble
opinion) now might not be the very best time to cut NOAA's budget. We
all pay $3/year for the privilege of having the best weather service on
the planet. Considering America experiences more extreme weather than
any other country on Earth, we deserve nothing less. Back to Maria and
Puerto Rico, which may be without power for a couple of months,
according to local officials. The grid is down across the entire island.
Food will spoil rapidly; emergency supplies will need to be airlifted
and shipped to San Juan to feed this nation of 3.5 million people, now
experiencing the worst storm-related disaster since 1932. I don't want
to minimize the scale of this tragedy. Many Caribbean island nations are
down for the count - with little chance of tourist dollars returning
for years, so they won't have the cash flow to be able to quickly
rebuild.
Maria was the third most intense
hurricane to hit the USA on record - I fear we're going to see a
slow-motion tragedy unfold in Puerto Rico in the coming weeks and
months. Many people who survived the storm may not survive the
aftermath. I hope I'm wrong.
Harvey, Irma, Maria: This is the Hurricane Season Scientists Expected...and Feared. Eric Holthaus reports for Grist: "...There is evidence that we are emerging from an era of messy meteorological data, where we were blind to warming seas strengthening hurricanes because the really damaging ones were rare. If that’s true, weather historians may look to this year as the beginning of a frightening new phase of superstorms. About 85 percent of all damage done by hurricanes is attributable to “major” storms — those stronger than Category 3, so roughly one-quarter of all storms. While relatively infrequent, they are by far the most destructive — a Category-5 cyclone has 500 times the power of a Category 1. Globally, major hurricanes have become slightly more common in recent decades, even as overall numbers have held steady. Further, there’s nothing in recorded history that resembles what Irma and Maria have inflicted on Caribbean islands in recent days..."
Photo image of Hurricane Maria from NASA astronaut Randy Bresnik aboard the ISS, the International Space Station.
Flood, Fix and Flip: Houston Housing Investors See Profit in Harvey's Wake. Reuters has the story: "Addressing
a real estate conference in flood-ravaged Houston this month, longtime
investor Ray Sasser detailed his strategy: buy up to 50 flooded homes at
deep discounts, then fix and flip them for a hefty profit. Sasser first
followed that game plan after Tropical Storm Allison flooded the city
in 2001. He bought homes for 30 to 40 percent of their pre-storm value,
spent another 15 percent on repairs, and sold many a year later - at
full value. The quick recovery surprised him, he said. “This can’t be
true,” he recalled thinking at the time. The bet that home prices in
hard-hit Houston neighborhoods will fully recover after Hurricane Harvey
could be riskier, Sasser and local economists said. But a rush of
investors eager to snap up flooded homes reflects broader confidence in
the resilience of Houston’s unique metropolitan economy..."
File photo: "Houses
are seen partially submerged in flood waters caused by Tropical Storm
Harvey in Northwest Houston, Texas, U.S. on August 30, 2017." REUTERS/Adrees Latif/File Photo.
How to Avoid Cars With Flood Damage. CNET has some timely advice: "...Here's a quick checklist for avoiding soggy vehicles:
- Examine the car's title. Any reputable dealer or seller will let you know the car has a Salvage or Flood branded title from water incursion. That's establish on the car's state record once an insurance company has made that declaration. Note that this entire scenario has a big loophole:
- Cars that never saw an insurance adjuster, either because they weren't insured or the owner knew what would happen when a claim was made on a flooded car, may end up on the private market after being dried out and cleaned up. This non-insurance loophole is one of the most troublesome.
- Check the National Motor Vehicle Title Information System, NMVTIS, which is a free online database run by the DOJ..."
Feature: Extreme Heat - an "Unseen Threat" - Burns U.S. Urban Poor. Reuters explains: "...Jenkins-Smith
is among the growing number of city dwellers whose health is at risk
from increasingly hotter summers - a threat that has prompted cities
nationwide to look for innovative ways to keep their most vulnerable
residents safe and cool. Rife with asphalt and concrete that absorb and
radiate heat, many U.S. cities amount to giant heat traps, scientists
say. The phenomenon is known as the urban heat island effect. It can add
as much as 5 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius) to daytime
temperatures in cities, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency. The problem is even worse at night, when city temperatures can
be as much as a whopping 22 degrees Fahrenheit (12 degrees Celsius)
warmer than green rural areas, where heat is more effectively released
back into the atmosphere, the agency said..."
Steamy Weekend - Cooling Off Next Week.
From early July to early October in the span of a couple days early
next week. Consider this a summer bonus; a taste of autumn returns next
week with highs in the 60s. Twin Cities ECMWF numbers: WeatherBell.
84-Hour Rainfall Potential.
You can clearly see the projected track of Hurricane Maria, coming
uncomfortably close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina early next
week. A conveyor-belt of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico fuels heavy
showers and T-storms from Texas across the Plains into the Upper
Midwest.
7-Day Rainfall Potential.
NOAA models print out a 10-12" bulls-eye over western and central
Texas, wih 2-4" rainfall amounts from eastern New Mexico to Sioux Falls,
Alexandria and Duluth over the next week.
Trending Milder Rest of 2017.
With the exception of North Dakota and part of Montana, just about the
entire USA is forecast to be milder than average the rest of the year.
What a shock. Forecasts above courtesy of NOAA CPC.
Wind Powered Electricity is Competitive, Even Without Subsidies. Here's an excerpt of a post at Scientific American: "...But it’s important to note that the price of wind energy offered through a PPA is an all-in price that includes the effect of subsidies such as the federal wind production tax credit, which provides a tax subsidy of 18 to 23 dollars per megawatt hour of energy produced. When you exclude the production tax credit and look at the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) from interior wind, it still comes in at an extremely competitive cost of less than 50 dollars per megawatt-hour (5 cents per kilowatt-hour). For comparison, the Energy Information Administration estimates a best-in-class combined cycle natural gas power plant has an LCOE of about 54 dollars per megawatt-hour (5.4 cents per kilowatt-hour). So even when you account for the effect of the federal wind production tax credit, wind energy remains an extremely competitive generating resource..."
File image: Star Tribune.
Elon Musk's Solar Partnership Strategy Doesn't Look So Crazy Anymore. Bloomberg explains: "Elon Musk took a lot of heat last year when his Tesla Inc. bought solar-panel installer SolarCity for $2 billion. The synergies between his two companies didn’t seem immediately obvious, among other issues, critics said. But now other solar installers are looking to partner with companies as they wrestle with a market that is shrinking after 16 years of rapid growth. Their longtime sales model -- knocking on doors, cold calling at home, setting up mall kiosks -- has proven to be costly. Far more effective to use the umbrella of bigger established companies to find customers, they’ve decided. Sunrun Inc., for example, will try to sell panels through Comcast Corp., the biggest cable-TV company in the U.S. Last month, the two agreed to a deal in which Comcast will use its vast marketing arm to tap some of its 27 million customers for solar..."
Photo credit: "A smart habit?" (Unsplash/Hal Gatewood)
The Impossible Burger: Inside the Strange Science of the Fake Meet that "Bleeds". I love a burger or steak as much as the next guy or gal - I'm trying to keep an open mind. Here's a clip from WIRED.com: "The cook, complete with
hair net, lays the red patty down on the grill and gives it a press
with a spatula. And there, that unmistakable sizzle and smell. She flips
the patty and gives it another press, lets it sit, presses it, and
pulls it off the grill and onto a bun. This is no diner, and this is no
ordinary cook. She's wearing not an apron, but a lab coat and safety
goggles, standing in a lab-kitchen hybrid in a Silicon Valley office
park. Here a company called Impossible Foods has over the last six years
done something not quite impossible, but definitely unlikely:
Engineering a plant-based burger that smells, tastes, looks, and even
feels like ground beef..."
This Stanford Professor Has a Theory on Why 2017 is Filled with Jerks. Has it always been this bad, and social media is just making us bigger, louder jerks? New York Magazine explains: "...The
more assholes you’re around, the more asshole-y you get.” But there are
other factors that have led to this explosion of assholes, Sutton
points out, everything from heat and crowding to imbalances in power and
the wealth gap. “The research says that when we’re in those situations,
there’s envy going up, and sort of disdain goes down.” Research also
shows that technology has increased the “asshole problem,” as Sutton
puts it, because people are much more likely to be mean if they don’t
have to make eye contact. And because technology has created the
expectation for things to happen faster, and at all hours of the day,
hurriedness and sleep deprivation have become major factors..."
Photo credit: "We would like to go forward with a free spirit, to continue serenely, without tension." (Facebook).
TODAY: Steamy with some sun, few T-storms. Winds: S 8-13. High: 86
SATURDAY NIGHT: Muggy, best chance of storms west of MSP. Low: 70
SUNDAY: More sun, T-storms northern and western Minnesota. Winds: S 10-15. High: 88
MONDAY: Showers and T-storms likely. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: near 70
TUESDAY: Stray shower, cooler and drier. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 54. High: 63
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sunshine, pleasant. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 50. High: 66
THURSDAY: Clipper arrives, few showers. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 53. High: 63
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, feels like autumn. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 48. High: 60
* Cumulonimbus mammatus clouds courtesy of Praedictix meteorologist, Susie Martin.
Climate Stories...
Poll: Americans Divided by Party on Global Warming's Role in Hurricanes. TheHill has the story: "Americans are divided over whether or not global warming plays a significant role in the intensity of hurricanes, following a devastating hurricane season in the U.S., according to a new CNN poll. More than three-quarters of Democratic respondents, 78 percent, believe that climate change has contributed to the recent increase in the severe tropical storms, an increase of 30 percentage points since 2005. Only 15 percent of Republicans answered that they believe it to be a cause, a 10-point decrease over the same time period, the poll found. Nearly half of those polled, 49 percent, believe in global warming as a cause of the increasing frequency of powerful storms, an increase of 36 percent since 2005. Hurricane Katrina, a Category 5 storm, struck Louisiana in 2005, killing 1,833 people..."
How Will Climate Change Impact Future Floods and Flood Insurance? Here's an excerpt of a timely interview at PBS NewsHour:
"PS: Can’t we mitigate the effects of flooding? I mean, that’s what they’re doing, raising houses all over the coastline in the United States, and [countries like] Holland.
RH: The types of mitigation efforts you’re talking about are critical. This is what we often hear referred to as ‘resilience’ or ‘adapting’ to a changing climate. And that has to be a key component of all strategies. We absolutely do need to strengthen that infrastructure, whether it’s elevating buildings, green infrastructure that can capture some of these excess water. We need those strategies. But you start to wonder, at what point have things changed too much for us to be able to adapt to? For example, if you look at parts of South Florida, as sea levels rise, as the water table rises, no matter how much money you put into trying to build sea walls, that water is just going to make its way up, like Swiss cheese through some of that limestone. You can’t hold the water back...."
Photo credit: "Houses are seen submerged in flood waters caused by Tropical Storm Harvey in Northwest Houston, Texas, on August 30, 2017." Photo by REUTERS/Adrees Latif
Photo credit: "Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke to the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday in New York. In his speech, Mr. Trudeau touted Canada’s free-trade agreement with the European Union and his country’s commitment to fighting climate change." Photo: Caitlin Ochs/Bloomberg News.
Hurricane Harvey - a Climate Angle? Climate Signals provides perspective: "...Climate change raises or amplifies the three primary hazards associated with hurricanes: storm surge, rainfall, and the power ceiling, aka potential speed limit, for hurricane winds. Sea level rise has elevated and dramatically extended the storm surge driven by hurricanes - the main driver of damage for coastal regions. Climate change has been found to have significantly increased the rainfall in hurricanes.[6][7] A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, feeding more precipitation into all storms including hurricanes, significantly amplifying extreme rainfall and increasing the risk of flooding. Hurricanes are fueled by ocean heat. As climate change warms sea surfaces, the heat available to power hurricanes has increased, raising the limit for potential hurricane wind speed and with that an exponential increase in potential wind damage. Harvey intensified rapidly amid sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico up to 2.7 - 7.2°F (1.5 - 4°C) above average, relative to a 1961-1990 baseline..."[8]
Map credit: Praedictix and AerisWeather.
Republican Senator Endorses "Price on Carbon" to Fight Climate Change. TIME has the details: "Sen. Lindsey Graham endorsed a "price on carbon"
to fight climate change, breaking with much of the Republican
Establishment. Speaking at a climate change conference held by former
Secretary of State John Kerry at Yale University, the South Carolina
Republican called for a "price on carbon," saying he would take the idea
to the White House for consideration. "I'm a Republican. I believe that
the greenhouse effect is real, that CO2 emissions generated by man is
creating our greenhouse gas effect that traps heat, and the planet is
warming," said Graham. "A price on carbon—that's the way to go in my
view..."
File image: Wikipedia.
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