70 F. average high on September 20.
79 F. high on September 20, 2016.
September 21, 2005: An unusually intense late season severe weather event affects parts of central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during the late afternoon and evening hours. Baseball-sized hail, damaging thunderstorm winds, and tornadoes result from several supercell thunderstorms. The most widespread damage occurs across the northern and eastern portions of the Twin Cities. Three tornadoes rake across parts of Anoka and northern Hennepin counties, including an F2, but the tornado damage is overshadowed by the widespread extreme wind damage associated with the rear flank downdraft of the supercell. In addition to the severe weather, many locations received substantial amounts of rain. Many streets and underpasses in the northern Twin Cities metro area were flooded Wednesday night, where radar precipitation estimates were in excess of 3 inches.
September 21, 1994: 1/2 inch hail in Blue Earth County results in $6 million in crop damages.
September 21, 1924: Very strong winds occur in Duluth, with a peak gust of 64 mph.
Wild Weather Week - Near Record Warmth on Friday?
"Hey Paul, I can't keep up with this! 60's one day and humid 90's a week later?" a friend, David Levin, lamented. I'm with you Dave - I'm just as confused as everyone else. Which reminds me of my favorite weather proverb: "There's no such thing as bad weather, just poor clothing choices." Right.
"Hey Paul, I can't keep up with this! 60's one day and humid 90's a week later?" a friend, David Levin, lamented. I'm with you Dave - I'm just as confused as everyone else. Which reminds me of my favorite weather proverb: "There's no such thing as bad weather, just poor clothing choices." Right.
On
Monday Minnesotans were wandering the streets in jackets, with "highs"
in the 50s. Friday, the first day of autumn, highs may surge into the
low to mid 90s - nearly 25F warmer than average. Let's have a moment of
silence for "average".
This
push of August-like air sets off a thundershower by tonight, but the
sun should be out much of Friday as we break out into the hot side of
the front. A lazy cool front sputters and stalls over Minnesota this
weekend; the best chance of showers and T-storms over central and
western counties, where several inches of rain may fall. Puddles linger
into Tuesday, before a push of Canadian air dries us out the latter half
of next week.
Dig out shorts for Friday, but jackets return next week. Welcome to the meteorologically-manic month of September.
Severe Reports Tuesday Night.
The squall line weakened by the time it reached the Twin Cities, but
there were numerous reports of large hail and damaging straight-line
winds over north and west of St. Cloud. More details via NOAA.
70-Degree Nighttime Lows in Late September. We may set a few records for warmest nighttime lows, according to the Minnesota State Climatology Office: "According
to the current NWS forecast, the Twin Cities could experience its
latest-on-record run of two or more consecutive days with low
temperatures at or above 70 F. In fact, the forecast calls for the
record to be broken by nearly a week!"
Praedictix Briefing: Issued Wednesday, September 20th, 2017:
*Maria made landfall earlier this morning around 6:15 AM AST near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, as a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds. Recently, a wind gust of 113 mph was reported in San Juan, with a 118 mph wind gust at Camp Santiago.
*Flash Flood Emergencies are in effect along the Rio La Plata and Rio Grande de Loiza due to dangerous runoff associated with Maria that is expected to cause significant flooding in communities along these rivers.
*The eye of Maria is currently sitting over eastern Puerto Rico with 145 mph winds as of 9 AM AST. Maria will continue to move over the island today and likely weaken some. However, the system will continue to produce heavy rain, flash flooding, destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge.
*Maria will continue off to the northwest over the next couple days, before moving more northward into the weekend. Some weakening is expected during this period due to slightly unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Models continue to keep Maria away from the Southeastern U.S. coast into next week.
*We also continue to track Jose, still sitting off the Northeast coast as of this morning as a tropical storm. While Jose will continue to weaken over the next couple days, gusty winds along parts of the New England coast, as well as dangerous surf and rip currents can be expected.
Maria Over Puerto Rico.
Maria made landfall earlier this morning near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, as a
dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds, making Maria the
first Category 4 landfall on Puerto Rico since 1932. Winds have been
gusting over 130 mph as Maria made its approach, including a 137 mph
gust in Isla Culebrita. Many weather observations sites are no longer
reporting conditions, so gusts could potentially still be higher in
spots. Flash flooding is also a major concern this morning, with
dangerous runoff from heavy rain reported across eastern and northern
parts of Puerto Rico. There are Flash Flood Emergencies in effect along
the Rio La Plata and Rio Grande de Loiza. As of 9 AM AST, the center of Maria was located 15 miles west-southwest of San Juan. (Satellite data: AerisWeather).
Maria Official Track.
Maria will continue to move across Puerto Rico today, emerging into the
Atlantic later in the day. The system will move just north of the
Dominican Republic through Thursday and into the southeastern Bahamas by Friday.
We expect to see some weakening in Maria over the next few days due to a
couple factors. First, interaction with land – especially in the next
24-48 hours as the system passes over Puerto Rico and near the Dominican
Republic – is expected to help weaken the system. As we head toward the
weekend, upper level winds will become less favorable, helping to
weaken Maria more. Maria will continue to be a powerful system, with
sustained winds of at least 110 mph in the forecast through Sunday morning.
Forecast Storm Surge. The
threat of storm surge in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will
continue today, with a forecast of 6-9 feet possible if it coincides
with high tide. Maria is expected to produce life-threatening storm
surge later this week along Hispaniola and in the Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos as well. Here is what is expected according to the National
Hurricane Center:
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Maria Early Next Week.
Both the European ECMWF (left) and American GFS (right) continue to
show that Maria should stay well offshore of the Southeastern United
States as we head into early next week.
Maria Closer To The Northeast U.S. Mid-Next Week?
We could see a similar situation to what we are seeing right now with
Jose by the middle of next week, as both the European ECMWF (left) and
American GFS (right) have the potential of Maria sitting offshore.
Confidence levels a week out are low, as Maria could still have
interaction with what is left of Jose and push further out into the
Atlantic. We will continue to track the latest on Maria to see if this
system will bring any impacts next week on facilities. Maps: WSI.
Jose Still Alive Off The Northeast Coast. Jose continues to sit offshore the east coast this morning, but as a weaker system than at this time yesterday. As of 8 AM ET, Jose is a Tropical Storm with 65 mph winds, sitting 165 miles south of Nantucket, MA. (Satellite data: AerisWeather)
Jose Official Track. We still see a weakening trend over the next couple days with Jose, and the system is expected to become post-tropical Thursday.
The system will move to the east and northeast over the next couple
days before high pressure moves in, causing the system to move back to
the west and meander in the northwest Atlantic waters into the weekend.
We will continue to watch high surf and rip currents along parts of the
Northeast coast over the next several days with Jose, with some minor
coastal flooding possible as well. Tropical Storm Warnings are still in
effect across parts of the New England coast due to the potential of
tropical storm force winds as the wind field extends outward 230 miles
from the center of the storm. Here is where those warnings are in
effect:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
Summary: Maria is moving over Puerto Rico this morning after making landfall with 155 mph winds earlier today. Numerous wind gusts of over 100 mph have been reported on the island. Flash Flood Emergencies are also in effect along the Rio La Plata and Rio Grande de Loiza due to dangerous runoff. Dangerous conditions will continue today across Puerto Rico as Maria continues to move across the island, with the eye expected to exit into the Atlantic later today or tonight. Maria will then track just north of the Dominican Republic into Thursday and close to the southeastern Bahamas by Friday. Heavy rain, dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge can be expected in these areas through the end of the week. Models continue to indicate that
Maria should pass well offshore the Southeast United States into early next week, but could still have some impacts of parts of the east U.S. coast. Jose continues to sit well offshore the Northeast this morning, with the storm slowly weakening. Jose is expected to meander in the Atlantic waters into next week.
Meteorologist D.J. Kayser, Praedictix
*Maria made landfall earlier this morning around 6:15 AM AST near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, as a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds. Recently, a wind gust of 113 mph was reported in San Juan, with a 118 mph wind gust at Camp Santiago.
*Flash Flood Emergencies are in effect along the Rio La Plata and Rio Grande de Loiza due to dangerous runoff associated with Maria that is expected to cause significant flooding in communities along these rivers.
*The eye of Maria is currently sitting over eastern Puerto Rico with 145 mph winds as of 9 AM AST. Maria will continue to move over the island today and likely weaken some. However, the system will continue to produce heavy rain, flash flooding, destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge.
*Maria will continue off to the northwest over the next couple days, before moving more northward into the weekend. Some weakening is expected during this period due to slightly unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Models continue to keep Maria away from the Southeastern U.S. coast into next week.
*We also continue to track Jose, still sitting off the Northeast coast as of this morning as a tropical storm. While Jose will continue to weaken over the next couple days, gusty winds along parts of the New England coast, as well as dangerous surf and rip currents can be expected.
Storm Surge Occurring This Morning.
Tide locations in parts of eastern and southern Puerto Rico have
already reported a storm surge of 1-3 feet this morning as Maria made
landfall. The highest storm surge reported by these tide locations so
far has been in Yabucoa Harbor, where a 5.4 foot storm surge was
recorded.
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
Summary: Maria is moving over Puerto Rico this morning after making landfall with 155 mph winds earlier today. Numerous wind gusts of over 100 mph have been reported on the island. Flash Flood Emergencies are also in effect along the Rio La Plata and Rio Grande de Loiza due to dangerous runoff. Dangerous conditions will continue today across Puerto Rico as Maria continues to move across the island, with the eye expected to exit into the Atlantic later today or tonight. Maria will then track just north of the Dominican Republic into Thursday and close to the southeastern Bahamas by Friday. Heavy rain, dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge can be expected in these areas through the end of the week. Models continue to indicate that
Maria should pass well offshore the Southeast United States into early next week, but could still have some impacts of parts of the east U.S. coast. Jose continues to sit well offshore the Northeast this morning, with the storm slowly weakening. Jose is expected to meander in the Atlantic waters into next week.
Meteorologist D.J. Kayser, Praedictix
Hurricane Maria Does "Mind-Boggling" Damage to Dominica, Leader Says. The New York Times has details.
Graphic credit: "Average forecast track error for Hurricane Irma by Panasonic model (red), American GFS model (blue), and European ECMWF model (green) in the days leading up to Irma." (Neil Jacobs/Panasonic).
One Lesson of Harvey: Read the Fine Print. Read this story from Dallas News and try not to shake your head in wonder: "They sat tucked away in a Fort Bend county clerk's file for the past two decades: 25 words on a public document that could have spared thousands of homeowners from losing everything. If only the homeowners had seen them. In the finest of fine print, the county warned in 1997: "This subdivision is adjacent to the Barker Reservoir and is subject to extended controlled inundation under the management of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers." In other words, during a major storm, the corps could choose to flood the subdivision in an effort to protect greater Houston. Which is exactly what happened during Hurricane Harvey. Now, as Houston begins a massive recovery effort projected to cost as much as $180 billion, it is increasingly clear that government officials at every level did little to warn residents in some of the hardest-hit areas that they were buying into risk — living in areas designed to flood..."
Photo credit: "Floodwaters rose into the Lakes on Eldridge North neighborhood near the Addicks Reservoir in West Houston shortly after the storm hit." (Tom Fox/Staff Photographer)
File image: AerisWeather.
Despite Rising Seas and Bigger Storms, Florida's Land Rush Endures. It's a tropical paradise, until it's not. Here's an excerpt from The New York Times: "Florida was built on the seductive delusion that a swamp is a fine place for paradise. The state's allure - peddled first by visionaries and hucksters, most famously in the Great Florida Land Boom of the 1920s - is no less potent today. Only, now there is a twist: Florida is no longer the swampy backwater it once was. It is the nation's third most populous state, with 21 million people, jutting out precariously into the heart of hurricane alley, amid rising seas, at a time when warming waters have the potential to bring ever stronger storms. And compared with the 1920s, when soggy land was sold by mail, the risks of building here are far better known today. Yet newcomers still flock in and buildings still rise, with everyone seemingly content to double down on a dubious hand..."
Photo credit: "A beachfront house in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., that was damaged by Hurricane Irma." Luke Sharrett for The New York Times.
The Stunning Price Tags for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Explained.
Good for the economy (new construction!) Depends on who you ask -
certainly not a positive for those starting over. Here's an excerpt from
Vox: "Estimates for the cost of Hurricane Harvey’s damage have come in at $65 billion, $180 billion, and as high as $190 billion
— the last of which would make it the costliest disaster in US history.
The numbers from the second record-breaking storm that hit the US this
summer, Hurricane Irma, meanwhile, are still rolling in. But totals
range from $50 billion to $100 billion. To appreciate how staggering these figures are, consider that they could be enough to make the $18.57 trillion US economy lose a step, knocking between 0.6 percent and 0.8 percent off of US GDP growth this quarter, according to projections from investment banks..."
Map credit: "Buildings flooded during Houston's 2016 Tax Day floods and 2015 Memorial day floods compared to FEMA's 100 and 500-year flood zones."
How to Avoid Cars With Flood Damage. CNET has some timely advice: "...Here's a quick checklist for avoiding soggy vehicles:
- Examine the car's title. Any reputable dealer or seller will let you know the car has a Salvage or Flood branded title from water incursion. That's establish on the car's state record once an insurance company has made that declaration. Note that this entire scenario has a big loophole:
- Cars that never saw an insurance adjuster, either because they weren't insured or the owner knew what would happen when a claim was made on a flooded car, may end up on the private market after being dried out and cleaned up. This non-insurance loophole is one of the most troublesome.
- Check the National Motor Vehicle Title Information System, NMVTIS, which is a free online database run by the DOJ..."
10 Costliest Hurricanes in U.S. History? NOLA.com in New Orleans takes a look; number one on the list is Katrina: "The 10 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history, even when damage estimates are adjusted for inflation, all occurred in the past 30 years. All but two of them struck in the 21st century. The storms hit Florida (6), Louisiana (4) and Texas (2), as well as Alabama, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina and South Carolina (1 each). Most of the big ones struck more than one coastal state. But it’s not just coastal states where costs mount. Once a hurricane comes ashore and weakens, cut off from the warm seawater that fuels it, it still carries immense amounts of moisture. As it moves hundreds of miles inland and breaks up, it continues to dump that moisture in the form of phenomenal rain that floods creeks and rivers, causing even more damage..."
Graphic courtesy of Wikipedia.
Earth Sweltered to 3rd Hottest August, Summer on Record. The AP has details: "Earth just sweated through the third hottest August and summer on record. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday the globe last month averaged 61.5 degrees (16.43 Celsius), which was a degree-and-a-half higher than the 20th century average, but behind 2016 and 2015. The average temperature for June through August was 61.47 degrees (16.41 Celsius). So far the year to date has edged out 2015 and is the second hottest January through August, averaging 58.88 degrees (14.88 Celsius), behind 2016. Records go back to 1880..."
File image: Climate Nexus.
Editorial: Don't Cut NOAA. Yes, this might be a bad time to take a hatchet to NOAA's budget. For the price of a tall, soy vanilla latte you have access to what are consistently the most accurate, reliable weather forecasts and severe weather warnings in the world. Here's an excerpt from SavannahNow: "...While the national debt is real, and Congress and the president must do a better job of working together to cut waste and improve efficiency and bring fiscal sanity to Washington, there are better places to cut spending. Don’t cut agencies like NOAA that help keep this nation safe from hurricanes, at relatively low cost. NOAA’s annual budget is currently $5.6 billion, a small fraction of the federal government’s $1.2 trillion discretionary budget. The National Weather Service costs each American about $3 per year, the agency said on its website. Three bucks a head is a bargain for data that provides a great value to the public. If the accuracy of hurricane tracking could be improved, most Americans probably would be willing to pay even more..."
Photo credit: "A gate at the U.S. Oil Recovery Superfund site is shown Thursday, Sept. 14, 2017, in Pasadena, Texas, where three tanks once used to store toxic waste were flooded during Hurricane Harvey. The Environmental Protection Agency says it has found no evidence that toxins washed off the site, but is still assessing damage." (Associated Press).
10 Giant Companies Commit to Electric Vehicles, Sending Auto Industry a Message. InsideClimate News has the story: "A
coalition of global corporations, including Unilever, Ikea and shipping
giant DHL, launched a global campaign today to accelerate the shift to
electric vehicles and away from gas- and diesel-powered
transportation—which generates almost a quarter of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions worldwide and has been the fastest growing emissions source. Since more than half of the cars on the road belong to companies, the new EV100 coalition could have a major impact. It aims to do for EVs and electric car charging infrastructure what coalitions such as the RE100
are already doing to encourage corporate purchasing of clean energy
(and thus motivating development of new solar and wind power).
EV100's goal is to send a signal to automakers that there is mass
demand for electric vehicles before 2030, when current forecasts suggest
global uptake will start to really ramp up..."
Photo credit: "PG&E,
a member of the EV100 coalition, illustrates some of the challenges of
moving quickly away from gas- and diesel-powered transportation — and
ways to make progress." Credit: PG&E
Utilities Line Up to Profit from "Slowest Trainwreck" in History. Bloomberg reports: "...Renewable energy technologies are upending the century-old, centralized business model that that utilities have used to grow. The cost of electricity from offshore wind farms, once one of the most expensive forms of green energy, is expected to slide by 71 percent over the next two decades, according to BNEF. Solar, once so costly it only made sense in spaceships, now competes with coal and even natural-gas plants on cost. “I do think we’re experiencing the slowest trainwreck in history,” Steven Martin, chief digital officer at General Electric Co.’s energy connections unit, said at the conference. “We’re going to reach some point where the marginal cost of energy is zero.” Earlier this year, Germany shocked the renewable energy industry by handing out contracts to developers willing build offshore wind farms without subsidy. Spain has also seen zero subsidy tenders, according to Starace, who said he expects the trend to go global after beginning in Europe..."
File image: MN.gov.
The Pacific Has a Pile of Trash the Size of France. Quartz has the disgusting details: "There’s
a country-sized problem in the north Pacific Ocean: a patch of trash
has grown to the size of France. So the environmental charity Plastic
Oceans Foundation has paired up with the news and entertainment
publication LadBible to campaign for it to be recognized as an official
country. The campaign claims that, under Article 1 of the 1993
Montevideo Convention on the rights and duties of states, a country must
be able to: define a territory, form a government, interact with other
states, and have a permanent population. The Great Pacific Garbage Patch
has borders (sort of), and it’s easy to create a government and
institutions for interacting with others..."
Image credit: National Geographic.
TODAY: Humid and breezy with a mix of clouds and sun. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 82
THURSDAY NIGHT: A few T-showers around. Low: 72
FRIDAY: What autumn? Sunny and stinking hot! Winds: S 15-25. High: 92
SATURDAY: Sticky sun, few T-storms around. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 72. High: 84
SUNDAY: More numerous showers, T-storms. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 69. High: 81
MONDAY: Still soggy, showery rains. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 73
TUESDAY: Periods of rain, trending cooler. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: 69
WEDNESDAY: Drying out with more clouds than sunshine, finally feels like autumn. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 52. High: 62
Climate Stories...
Republican Senator Endorses "Price on Carbon" to Fight Climate Change. TIME has the details: "Sen. Lindsey Graham endorsed a "price on carbon"
to fight climate change, breaking with much of the Republican
Establishment. Speaking at a climate change conference held by former
Secretary of State John Kerry at Yale University, the South Carolina
Republican called for a "price on carbon," saying he would take the idea
to the White House for consideration. "I'm a Republican. I believe that
the greenhouse effect is real, that CO2 emissions generated by man is
creating our greenhouse gas effect that traps heat, and the planet is
warming," said Graham. "A price on carbon—that's the way to go in my
view..."
File image: Wikipedia.
I'm a TV Weatherman. Here's What Happened When I discussed Climate Change on the Air. Sean Sublette reports for Vox: "...In
2014, after nearly 20 years as a broadcast meteorologist, I saw a
change in both the climate and the broadcast meteorology landscape. On
the climate front, I knew evidence of climate change would only become
stronger. On the broadcasting front, it seemed more meteorologists
wanted to approach climate change on air, although some struggled with
how to go about it. In both cases, my gut was right. The planet has set a
record
for its warmest year for three years running. Intense heat waves and
rising seas have taken a toll around the world as atmospheric carbon
dioxide continues to rise to levels unseen
in the history of human civilization. Evidence of a shift in attitudes
became clear in surveys of broadcast meteorologists. In 2010, a George Mason University survey
indicated that 53 percent of broadcast meteorologists say global
warming is indeed happening. A similar 2017 survey indicated that number
had jumped to 95 percent. However, that same 2017 survey only indicated
49 percent were convinced it has been mostly or entirely due to human
activity, so there is still work to be done to bring the science home..."
Photo credit: ""
Graphic credit: "Climate
models predicted human-caused global warming will boost the proportions
in the highest hurricanes (4-5) compared to the lowest (1-2). The ACCI
is a measure of human-caused warming." CREDIT: NCAR 2013.
Climate Change Brings Melting Ice, and Cruise Passengers, to Canada. USA TODAY has the details: "When
a massive luxury cruise ship docked outside the tiny Inuit town of
Cambridge Bay this summer, it doubled the population of the town for a
day. “It was just jaw-dropping to think that the same amount of people
that are in Cambridge Bay could fit onto that ship,” said Mia Otokiak,
21, a lifelong resident of the small, largely Inuit town in the Canadian
province of Nunavut. The Crystal Serenity, a 13-deck cruise ship
carrying more than 1,700 passengers and crew, stopped there this August
for the second time during a repeat of its historic 2016 voyage through
the Northwest Passage. The Serenity is by far the largest passenger ship
ever to ply the waters of the Northwest Passage, from Alaska through
the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and on toward Greenland..."
Photo credit: "The Crystal Serenity docked at the Boston cruise terminal near the end of its 32-day Norhtwest Passage journey." (Photo: Marco Werman/The World).
Arctic Sea Ice Reaches 8th Lowest Annual Minimum. Arctic Now has details: "Arctic sea ice extent reached an annual minimum of 4.64 million square kilometers (1.79
million square miles) on Sept. 13, according to the National Snow and
Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. This represents the eighth lowest
extent in the 38-year satellite observation era and a slight increase
over 2016 which recorded a low of 4.14 million km2. However, it
continues the trend of substantially reduced ice coverage in comparison
to the 1970-1990s, when summertime minimums were in excess of seven
million km2..."
It Takes Just 4 Years to Detect Human Warming of the Oceans. 92% of the additional warmth from heat-trapping greenhouse gases is going into the world's oceans. St. Thomas scientist John Abraham authors an article at The Guardian: "...According to our analysis, the top 10 warmest years of ocean heat content are all in the most recent decade (following 2006) with last two years being the hottest. The heat storage in the ocean corresponds to 3×1023 Joules (a 3 with twenty-three zeroes after it) since 1960. Prior to the 1980s, values are not as well known, and the global record is unreliable prior to about 1960. In the most recent 25 years, the Earth has gained approximately 0.7 Watts for every square meter of surface area. That may not sound like much but think about how many square meters are required to cover the surface of the Earth. To put these numbers in perspective, the heat increase in the oceans since 1992 is about 2000 times the total net generation of electricity in the USA in the past decade..."
Graphic credit: "Increases in ocean heat content since 1950s. Illustration: Cheng, L., K. E. Trenberth, J. Fasullo, J. Abraham, T. P. Boyer, K. von Schuckmann, and J. Zhu (2017), Taking the pulse of the planet, Eos, Vol. 98."
Photo credit: "A trainer helping Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Michael Ola after he was injured during a preseason NFL football game in August." (Jeffrey T. Barnes/AP).
Extreme Weather: What's Climate Change Got To Do With It? Here's an excerpt of an answer from World Resources Institute: "...We also know that warming leads to higher sea levels, which in turn increases the risk of storm surge, contributing to the damage brought by hurricanes. Climate change also warms oceans, adding energy that can fuel coastal storms. Compounding this, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, so there can be more moisture for storm systems, resulting in heavier rainfall. The U.S. National Climate Assessment finds that there has been a substantial increase – in intensity, frequency, and duration as well as the number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms – in Atlantic Ocean hurricanes since the early 1980s, linked in part to higher sea surface temperatures. By late this century, models on average project a slight decrease in the number of tropical cyclones each year, but an increase in the number of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes and greater rainfall rates in hurricanes (increases of about 20 percent averaged near the center of hurricanes)..."
Photo credit: "Houseboat stuck in low-lying water and debris on Scout Key after Hurricane Irma. Photo by Florida National." Guard/Flickr
Rebuttal: Climate Change is a Life, Liberty and Property. An Op-Ed at The Washington Examiner got my attention: "...Rogan talks about the foundation of our democracy. What he omits is that in the Fifth Amendment, the founders recognized the fundamental right of citizens to be free from government actions that harm life, liberty, and property. Our nation's climate system, including its atmosphere and oceans, is tightly tied to this right. James Madison, who drafted the constitution, said in 1818: "The atmosphere is the breath of life." In Texas and in Florida, we just saw our climate, infused by fossil fuel-created carbon pollution, infringe upon the inalienable right to life, liberty, and property. One of my co-plaintiffs, 10-year old Levi, lives on a barrier island in Florida. The federal government's contribution to our climate crisis, with the cooperation of the fossil fuel industry, directly violates this right, especially us as young people..."
File image: David Gatley, FEMA.
Yes, Climate Change Made Harvey and Irma Worse. A consistenly warmer ocean didn't trigger the storms, but there's a high probability it amped them up, juiced them into stronger hurricanes. That, and higher sea levels magnified the storm surge associated with each storm. CNN reports: "The right time to talk climate change is now.It might seem premature when people in the Caribbean, Florida and Texas are still mucking out their flooded homes. And no, changes in our planet's atmosphere did not cause Hurricanes Harvey or Irma. But the consensus among scientists is that the effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels and warmer oceans, made those storms far more destructive than they would have been in previous decades. "The short version is, climate change makes these very bad storms worse," said Sean Sublette, a meteorologist with Climate Central, a nonprofit group that studies climate change. "It's not the approximate cause of the storm, but it makes these bad storms worse. And in the case of a really bad storm, climate change can make it totally disastrous or catastrophic..."
Image credit: "This photo made available by NASA shows Hurricane Harvey over Texas on Saturday, Aug. 26, 2017, seen from the International Space Station. Experts say a combination of unusual factors turned Harvey into a deadly monster. The storm intensified just before it hit land, parked itself over one unfortunate area and dumped a record amount of rain." (Randy Bresnik/NASA via AP)
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