77 F. high Saturday afternoon in the Twin Cities.
70 F. average high on September 20.
66 F. high on September 20, 2013.
.24" rain fell yesterday at MSP International as of 7 PM.
September 20, 1994: 1/2 inch hail in Blue Earth County resulted in $6 million in crop damages.
September 20, 1924: Windstorm with a peak gust of 64 mph in Duluth.
September Bliss
"We
know that in September we will wander through the warm winds of
summer's wreckage. We will welcome summer's ghost" wrote Henry Rollins. I
prefer to think of September as a summer encore, one last chance to get
it right.
What's not to like? A crisp snap to the air, drooping
dew points, fewer grumbles of thunder (yesterday's storms
notwithstanding) and not nearly as many minivan-size mosquitoes showing
up on Doppler.
This month can bring 100-degree heat and snow but
most days are reasonable, the frenetic pace of summer replaced with fog
& football.
Sorry for sounding like an infatuated teenager but
this is my favorite time of the year. I don't have to sleep with one
eye open.
I still see a warm bias into the first week of October.
The ridge of high pressure that's been parked over California pushes
east, bottling up any chilly air over Canada. After cooling into the 60s
today 70s will be the rule much of this week; model guidance still
showing highs near 80F by late week. Next weekend may be ideal for
escaping up north to check out ripening leaves. Peak leaf-peeping time
in the MSP metro is still about weeks away.
Summer was slightly milder than average. That trend should now spill over into early autumn.
An Oddly Average Summer.
After the monsoons of June, officially the wettest month on record in
Minnesota, temperatures were all over the map. Only 2 days above 90F
(average is 14; last year we saw 19 days at or above 90F), with a series
of chilly fronts in mid-July, the midpoint of summer heat. The
perception: a chilly summer, and daytime highs were slightly cooler than
average. But nighttime lows were 1.2F milder than average at MSP,
meaning meteorological summer was .2F warmer than average. Yes, it was
one of the strangest "average" summers I can recall.
2014: Fewer Tornadoes Than Average.
At last count SPC reports 25 tornadoes in Minnesota so far in 2014,
none of the touchdowns near the Twin Cities. The 20-year average is
closer to 35. There were reports of hail and damaging winds this summer,
but no widespread blow-downs or extensive areas of crop-destroying
hail. Map: meteorologist D.J. Kayser at Media Logic Group.
When Good Weather = Bad Business.
No drought, no extensive crop-damaging hail or wind events. The result:
another potentially record corn harvest from the Dakotas to Ohio.
Record supply is depressing prices, corn futures still well below
profitability for many farmers. A commodity trader in Wayzata told me
that back in 2012 (warmest year on record with pockets of drought and
record heat spikes) corn farmers were looking at a profit of $300/acre.
This year: a net loss of $250/acre. Yes, the weather really can be "too
good".
Saturday's Severe Storm Outbreak.
NOAA SPC reports 56 high wind reports (blue icons above), many of them
in Minnesota as a rare squall line bubbled up in response to moderate
instability and a strong jet stream feature. Winds gusted over 60 mph,
bringing down trees, sparking sporadic power outages. A complete
chronological rundown of severe weather reports is
here.
September Squall Line.
I saved this NWS Doppler reflectivity image, taken at 5:04 PM, showing
the most severe storms near Glencoe and Fairfax, where some of the most
extensive straight-line wind damage was reported. NOAA SPC did issue a
Severe Storm Watch around midday, and the models (especially HRRR) did a
good job with the timing of these storms.
Cool Surge.
Look carefully at the beginning of this 2-meter temperature animation:
you can clearly see the surge of cool air in the wake of yesterday's
strong to severe storms. You'll feel the cool front today with more
clouds than sun and a stiff northwest wind, a few instability showers
can't be ruled out, especially east of the St. Croix River. Any
cool-down will be brief with a rapid warming trend later this week. 4 KM
NAM model data: NOAA and HAMweather.
Lukewarm.
We cool off today and Monday; but any light jackets at the bus stop
tomorrow morning may be replaced by shorts and T-shirts by the end of
the week as highs climb well into the 70s to near 80F. An isolated
shower or sprinkle can't be ruled today, especially over Wisconsin, with
a better chance of scattered showers Wednesday. Right now next weekend
looks dry and warm, more typical of late August than late September. MSP
Meteogram: Weatherspark.
2014 Was a Summer Sizzler: Earth's Hottest on Record. Here's more information on a record-setting summer, worldwide, from
USA TODAY: "
The
planet just had its hottest summer on record, according to data
released Thursday by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It's also
well on its way to having its hottest year ever, beating 2010, said
climate scientist Jake Crouch of the data center. The global temperature
for summer was 1.28 degrees above the 20th-century average of 61.5
degrees. Records go back to 1880. Climatologists define summer in the
Northern Hemisphere as the months of June, July and August..."
Map credit above: "
The
parts of the world that were warmer-than-average this past summer are
seen in red and pink on this map, while places that were
cooler-than-average (such as the eastern U.S.) are seen in blue.
" (Photo: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center)
Hurricane Odile: From Paradise to Armageddon in 12 Hours.
Here's a blog account of what really happened in Cabo San Lucas,
Mexico, on the southern tip of Baja, when Category 3 Hurricane Odile
arrived. The impact was even worse than I thought it would be. Here's an
excerpt from a must-read account at
wHaT iT iS: "
I'm
writing from the safety of my family's home in Mexico City after
fleeing Cabo on a rescue plane yesterday morning. Words will never be
enough to portray what I saw and experienced in Cabo during and after
Hurricane Odile, but I want to write the most detailed account so people
can get a sense of what the situation was really like as of Wednesday,
Sept 17- as most media outlets are filtering things likely to protect
tourism in the long run, as well as not to worry friends and relatives
of those in Cabo during the storm. The easiest way to do this is as a
"timeline"...
Family Describes "Nightmare Experience" in Cabo. Q13fox.com has the
harrowing details.
Americans Trapped in Cabo Describe Desperation, Danger. NBC News has the
story.
The Chemistry Behind The Different Colors of Autumn Leaves.
Gizmodo and Compound Interest have a good explainer of what makes leaves change colors this time of year; here's an excerpt: "...
Over at Compound Interest,
Andy Brunning has made yet another infographic that gets into the geeky
and fascinating details. Yes, the green of chlorophyll gives way to the
yellow, orange, and red of carotenoids and flavonoids. But that deep
purple and magenta you sometimes see? That's an entirely different class
of compounds, called anthocyanins that plants only start making in the
fall..."
El Nino is Kinda Sorta Maybe Here.
Climate Central takes a look at this year's slow-motion warming phase in the Pacific; here's a clip: "
El Niño watchers, rejoice (maybe). A weak El Niño has formed (sorta). On
Tuesday, researchers at the International Research Institute for
Climate and Society said a borderline El Niño is upon us, with the odds
for further development increasing throughout the fall and winter. This El Niño has played a game of hide and seek
since an El Niño Watch was declared way back in March. After picking up
steam in the spring and early summer, El Niño conditions essentially
disappeared in July and much of August..."
Image credit above: "Chart
showing ocean temperatures in different regions of the Pacific used to
gauge El Niño, including the recent rise in temperatures." Credit: IRI.
Looking Back to 1821, Insurers Foresee a $100 Billion Hurricane. No, Sandy was not a worst-case scenario for the northeastern USA. Here's an excerpt from an Andrew Revkin Dot Earth story at
The New York Times: "...
The
result is, needless to say, deeply sobering, showing that the losses
from Hurricane Sandy were, as many experts have warned, nowhere near a
worst case. The study’s bottom line? If the 1821 Hurricane were to
happen today, it would cause 50% more damage than Sandy and potentially
cause more than $100 billion in property losses stemming from storm
surge and wind damage..."
Image credit above: "
Analysts at Swiss Re, the giant reinsurance company, have projected that a repeat of the great 1821 hurricane that struck New York City would flood a far greater area than Hurricane Sandy and could cause more than $100 billion in damage." Credit Swiss Re.
Report Warns That Superstorm Sandy Was Not "The Big One". Following up on the Swiss Re report
Huffington Post has more perspective; here's an excerpt: "...
When
the 1821 storm passed through hubs like Washington, D.C. and New York
City, those cities had much smaller populations -- only 136,000 people
combined. Today, Washington alone has more than four times as many
residents, and New York is home to more than 8 million people. Using
meteorological models, geographic and infrastructure data and Swiss Re's
underwriting tools, the report considers the impact an analogous storm
would have today. It predicts a storm surge of up to 12 feet at the
southern tip of Manhattan, and a surge of up to 25 feet in Atlantic
City, New Jersey -- in part because the water is about a foot and a half
higher now than it was in 1821, due to sea level rise..."
College Football: The Multi-Billion Dollar Business Where The Labor Is Free.
Quartz
has another interesting article, this time looking at why so many of us
are rabid college football fans, and how the economics of football, the
huge dollars involved, are changing not only the game, but how colleges
operate. Here's an excerpt: "...
And today,
as economists debate rising inequality and low minimum wages, college
football debates whether student athletes—who aren’t paid, but get
scholarships—should be compensated more. Michael Weinreb, the author of the new book
Season of Saturdays: A History of College Football in 14
Games, explains that the fervent support for college football stems from
one of the most powerful marketing tools there is: nostalgia.
“It appeals to people’s nostalgia, because they either went to school
there or they grew up there, and they think they can get back to that
place,” he tells Quartz..."
Photo credit: "
Kind-of a big deal in Alabama."
Reuters/ RVR Photos-USA TODAY Sports
What Happens When We All Live To 100? Kiss social security goodbye, right? Here's a snippet of a fascinating article from
The Atlantic: "...
Since
1840, life expectancy at birth has risen about three months with each
passing year. In 1840, life expectancy at birth in Sweden, a
much-studied nation owing to its record-keeping, was 45 years for women;
today it’s 83 years. The United States displays roughly the same trend.
When the 20th century began, life expectancy at birth in America was 47
years; now newborns are expected to live 79 years. If about three
months continue to be added with each passing year, by the middle of
this century, American life expectancy at birth will be 88 years. By the
end of the century, it will be 100 years..."
TODAY: More clouds than sun, still windy. Risk of a shower, especially Wisconsin. Winds: NW 15+ High: 65
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing and cool. Low: 49
MONDAY: Bright sun with less wind, beautiful. Dew point: 45. High: 71
TUESDAY: Fading sun, seasonably mild. Wake-up: 50. High: 73
WEDNESDAY: Unsettled, few showers in the area. Wake-up: 56. High: 69
THURSDAY: Early fog, PM sun, milder. Wake-up: 57. High: 74
FRIDAY: Bottle it. Warm sunshine. Wake-up: 60. High: 78
SATURDAY: August memories. Hazy sun. Wake-up: 61. High: near 80
Climate Stories...
My Climate Change.
We all start from a point of skepticism. But if you do more than mouth
cable TV talking points and really take time to drill down into the
data, you're left with the knowledge that something really is happening,
and odds are it isn't natural or benign. Here's an excerpt of Weather
Channel Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro's story, how he came to
acknowledge the science, at
Weather Underground: "..
Did
I suddenly switch from conservative to liberal? No, in fact I consider
myself politically independent. I have voted for Republicans, Democrats
and Libertarians. (I've either now assuaged everyone's concerns or
irritated everyone, or both!) Did The Weather Channel pressure me to
change my point of view on global warming or what I communicate about
it? Nobody at The Weather Channel, its owners or its advertisers has
ever done that. I come to my own objective conclusions, and that will
never change. Skepticism is a fundamental part of the scientific
process, and healthy when in that vein. I continue to look at data with a
skeptical eye. However, skepticism is not constructive when it becomes
overwhelming and results in being closed-minded and only seeing what you
want to see. So, what convinced me?..."
Obama Budget Chief: "Climate Denial" Will Cost the U.S. Billions. Here's an excerpt from
The Hill: "...
President
Obama's budget director on Friday said "denial" of climate change will
eventually cost the United States "billions of dollars." Shaun Donovan,
delivering his first speech as head of the Office of Management and
Budget (OMB), put the focus on an issue not normally associated with the
dollars and cents of the federal budget. "Climate action is
tremendously important to me," Donovan said..."
Climate Change is a Global Emergency. Stop Waiting for Politicians to Sound The Alarm. Here's a clip of an Op-Ed at
The Guardian from Naomi Klein: "...
What is most terrifying about the threat of climate disruption is not the unending procession of scientific reports about rapidly melting ice sheets, crop failures and rising seas.
It’s the combination of trying to absorb that information while
watching our so-called leaders behave as if the global emergency is no
immediate concern. As if every alarm in our collective house were not
going off simultaneously. Only when we urgently acknowledge that we are
facing a genuine crisis will it become possible to enact the kinds of
bold policies and mobilize the economic resources we need. Only then
will the world have a chance to avert catastrophic warming..."
Image credit above: "
The most terrifying part of climate change may be watching politicians behave as if the emergency is no immediate concern." Illustration: Cesar Maxi.
The Imminent Threat To The U.S. That Gets Ignored. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at
CNN: "
There is an imminent threat facing the people, economy and territory of the United States of America. A report
by the Center for Naval Analyses Military Advisory Board calls it a
threat to national security and a broader "catalyst for conflict,"
domestically and worldwide. The admiral in charge of U.S. forces in the
Pacific says it poses the biggest long-term security threat to the
region. A comprehensive study, with 16 terabytes of data, documents how this threat
will affect every single county in the United States — costing coastal
cities billions and decimating crops all across the Midwest..."
Photo credit above: Mary Altaffer, AP. "
Protections
have already been added to the Statue of Liberty and Ellis Island in
New York, but will they be enough in an era of climate change. Listing
30 at-risk sites, a report released by the Union of Concerned Scientists contends rising seas are endangering many of America's landmarks. Here's a look at some of them."
New Map of 15 Years of CO2 Emissions.
EarthSky has an interesting story on carbon dioxide emission rates, worldwide. Here's the introduction: "
Researchers
have developed a new system – which they call the Fossil Fuel Data
Assimilation System (FFDAS) – to estimate CO2 emissions from burning
fossil fuels. This new system has now been used to quantify 15 years of
CO2 emissions, every hour, for the entire planet – down to the city
scale. Researchers unveiled the new system in an article published
September 10 in the Journal of Geophysical Research. The FFDAS uses
information from satellite feeds, national fuel accounts and a new
global database on power plants to create high-resolution planetary maps..
Map credit: Gurney Labs.
What A Biblical-Style Flood Could Mean for Washington D.C.
When congressmen have to boat to the U.S. Capitol maybe they'll realize
that something has changed. Here's a clip from a story at
Citylab: "
It's amazing that with a 97 percent scientific consensus on human-caused climate change we still have politicians talking smack
about its importance. Will their tune change at all, one wonders, once
the flood waters are lapping at the base of the federal government? This
mapping tool
can't answer that question, but it does give an indication of what a
climate-enraged flood could mean for Washington, D.C. And to believe the
folks at Climate Central, the independent group that created it with government data, such an epic dousing is nigh. They say the city will "likely
see a record flood before mid-century," meaning one that would measure 8
feet above the high-tide level in the Tidal Basin..."
Global Investors Urge Leaders To Act On Carbon Pricing Ahead of UN Meeting. Here's the intro to a story at
Reuters: "
More
than 340 institutional investors representing $24 trillion in assets on
Thursday called on government leaders attending next week's United
Nations climate summit to set carbon pricing policies that encourage the
private sector to invest in cleaner technologies. Firms signing a joint letter include BlackRock, Calvert Investments, BNP Paribas Investment Partners and Standard Bank..."
Our Disappearing Snows: Climate Change and Water Resources. We're talking primarily about snow trends over the western USA and Rockies. Peter Gleick has the story at
Huffington Post; here's an excerpt: "...
We're
not ready. We still manage our water systems for the 20th century
climate we use to have, not the 21st century climate we will have. We
still act as though our water problems can be solved with traditional
solutions despite the growing evidence of peak water limits
in places like the western US. And we still assume that we can
indefinitely overdraft our groundwater, suck our rivers dry, and expand
our populations in arid regions. We cannot. The sooner we accept the new
reality of climate change, the sooner we can have a real conversation
about the most effective strategies for truly sustainable water management and use."
Map credit: National Geographic 2014.
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/west-snow-fail/
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