53 F. high in the Twin Cities Friday.
51 F. average high on October 30.
49 F. high on October 30, 2014.
October 31, 1991:
Great Halloween Blizzard begins. Trick or Treating was memorable for
the few who ventured out. 8.2" fell at MSP as of midnight on Halloween,
1991.
Partly-Damp Halloween4 Days Above 60F Early Next Week
I
can't decide whether to dress up as Donald Trump or Taylor Swift for
Halloween this year. Maybe I'll stalk the neighbors dressed as El Nino?
Be afraid.
Today won't win any awards for beauty and splendor;
models hint at a few instability showers and sprinkles this afternoon
and evening. I don't expect a steady, soaking rain; temperatures right
around 50F for Trick or Treating.
We've seen much worse.
Speaking
of rain, a suburb of Austin, Texas picked up 7 inches of rain in one
HOUR yesterday - 15 to 18 inches of rain falling on ground already
saturated from the soggy remains of Hurricane Patricia last week. More
symptoms of an El Nino-energized pattern kicking in? Probably.
This same warm stain in the Pacific will pump unseasonably mild air into Minnesota next week; highs reach the 60s from
Sunday into
Wednesday. The latest ECMWF (European) model hints at 70F
next Wednesday. I know, what November?
Models spin up a big (rain) storm the end of next week - it should feel more like November within 2 weeks.
Halloween 2015? More treat than trick. Set your clocks back
tonight!
* Photo credit above:
Mike Hall Photography.
Friday Flood Emergency for Austin and much of South Central Texas. The Weather Channel
has an update on the incredible rains that flooded a stretch from San
Antonio to Austin on Friday; some 15-18" rainfall amounts (see tweet
below - white areas are over 15-20"), which is
nuts, considering this area was hit by flooding from ex-Hurricane Patricia last week. Here's an excerpt: "...
More
than 10 inches of rain fell in a two-hour span near the creek Friday
morning. Multiple people were rescued from floodwaters in Travis County
earlier Friday morning. The rainfall became so extreme that the airfield
of Austin-Bergstrom International Airport had to be closed late Friday
morning, the airport announced. "We do have some water rescues ongoing,
and that could become a bigger problem later today if the rain continues
into rush hour," said Joe Arellano, meteorologist at the National
Weather Service in Austin, while speaking with The Weather Channel..."
7-Day Rainfall Outlook.
NOAA's models show more heavy rains for the southern USA (possible
manifestation of El Nino kicking in, which tends to energize the
southern branch of the jet stream). Some 10" amounts are predicted for
the Pacific Northwest, where Flood Watches have been posted.
"I'm Reporting From 20 Feet Up in a Tree".
In 45 years tracking the weather I have never seen anything quite like
this; a man swept downstream in his car for nearly half a mile, who gets
out and climbs a tree before his car completely submerges in Onion
Creek in the Austin, Texas area. His Boy Scout training was put to good
use. Check out the remarkable interview and footage at
KVUE-TV in Austin. The man, Kerry Packer, was rescued and he is safe. Good grief!
Mild Start to November, Then a Minor Reality Check.
Enjoy 4 days at or above 60F early next week (70F is still a
possibility next Wednesday if the sun stays out) because we'll be lucky
to see highs in the 40s by the end of the week; models spinning up a
significant rain event late Thursday into Friday. We need the moisture,
and it should fall as liquid, not in a crystalline form. Not yet, but
we're getting closer.
Colder and Stormier by Mid-November.
After a balmy start early next week temperatures chill back down to
normal, possibly even colder than average by the middle of November as
polar air begins to seep south of the border, carving out a broad
long-wave trough that may spark heavier, steadier rains (or snows!)
First Measurable Autumn Snowfall. Dr. Mark Seeley has more details on our midweek snow event at
Minnesota WeatherTalk,
the first of the season for the immediate Twin Cities metro, just
enough to remind all of us that winter is, in fact, on the way: "
Wednesday
and Thursday, October 28-29 brought the first measurable snowfalls of
the autumn season to Minnesota, although most observers reported a
mixture of precipitation, both rain and snow, with temperatures hovering
in the low to mid 30s F. Many observers reported from 0.1 to 0.4
inches, including Rochester with 0.2 inches which tied the record value
there for October 28th. Long Prairie (Todd County), Montgomery (Le
Sueur County), and Cass Lake (Cass County) reported 0.5 inches, Grand
Rapids 0.7 inches, and Eau Claire, WI reported 0.9 inches. Rothsay
(Wilkin County) reported 1 inch of snow (tying the record from 1964),
while just north of Brainerd an observer reported 2.2 inches of new snow..."
Rare Cyclone Heads Toward Arabia, May Dump Year's Worth of Rain. A rare occurrence? It would seem so. Here's a clip from
USA TODAY: "...
Cyclone
landfalls in this area are "fairly rare," tweeted meteorologist Steve
Bowen of Aon Benfield, a global reinsurance firm. According to Weather
Channel hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, there is no record of a
hurricane-strength cyclone landfall in Yemen dating back to 1945. The
Weather Channel reports that there have only been two Category 4
equivalent Arabian Sea cyclones on record. Gonu in 2007 and Phet in 2010
both weakened before making landfall in northern Oman near the capital,
Muscat..."
Projected Track of Chapala.
This rare cyclone is forecast to strengthen into a Category 5 storm
before weakening to Category 1 status before pushing into Yemen. Image
source:
UW-CIMSS.
Prepared for The Next Sandy? Some Experts Call for Bolder Action. Living next to the water is great - until it isn't.
NBC New York has the story - here's the introduction: "
Three
years after Sandy caused $50 billion in damage as the powerful storm
ripped up beaches along the New York and New Jersey coasts, flooded
shops and homes and left lower Manhattan dark for days, “resiliency” has
become the byword of the region. New York City alone is spending $20
billion to try to make sure that the five boroughs better withstand the
severe storms that scientists say climate change will make more likely.
But some experts say the area should be bolder, with one proposal
calling for a storm barrier that stretches across the entrance to New
York Harbor..."
Three Years Later, Are We Ready for the Next Sandy? Picking up on the same theme of resilience and readiness,
New York Magazine takes a look; here's an excerpt: "
Hurricane Sandy struck three years ago today, flooding the coasts of New York and New Jersey and, unforgettably, putting out the lights in half of Manhattan. And unless you were directly affected by it, it's pretty easy to forget,
or at least not think about it. But it's not if you're still trying to
rebuild, as many people are. This spring, the Federal Emergency
Management Agency began a review of 17,000 Hurricane Sandy–related
disaster claims. According to ABC News,
the resulting report found that roughly three in five were still owed
money. Some people are waiting for more than $100,000, and FEMA is
trying to fix the problem by doling out additional reimbursements, at an
average of $15,000..." (File image above: NASA).
East Coast and Gulf Coast Power Grids Are Still Not Ready for a Big Hurricane. Grist takes a look at the grid and discovers it isn't ready for The Big One. Shocking. Here's a clip: "...So,
you might think maybe it’s high time we get our catastrophic-weather
act together? Well, earlier this week, The Union of Concerned Scientists
(UCS) released a study showing that most of the power grid on the Gulf
and East Coasts of the United States would not be prepared for another
Category 3 hurricane. Inside Climate News reports:
In all, 68 power plants and 415 major electric power substations are
susceptible to flooding in a Category 3 hurricane, a storm with
sustained winds up to 130 mph..."
Photo credit above: "
Water pushed up by Hurricane Sandy splashes into the window of a building in Bellport, N.Y."
REUTERS/Lucas Jackson.
Halloween Climatology in the Twin Cities. Here's an excerpt of a timely post from the Minnesota DNR: "... The
last fifteen years have had some balmy Halloween afternoons with a 71
degrees in 2000, and some quite cool ones as well with a 34 in 2002.
There hasn't been a Halloween washout since 1997. Measurable
precipitation has occurred on Halloween only 26% of the time in the Twin
Cities, or 37 times out of 143 years. The most rain recorded was in
1979 with .78 inches. In 1991 .85 inches of precipitation fell, which
was snow. In spite of the 1991 Halloween Blizzard, measurable snow on
Halloween is about as rare as getting a full sized candy bar in your
trick or treat bag. Since 1872 there's been enough snow to measure only
six times: .6 in 1884, .2 in 1885, 1.4 in 1932, .4 in 1954, .5 in 1995
and of course 8.2 inches with the Halloween Blizzard of 1991..."
California Officials Outline Preparations for El Nino Flooding.
Reuters
has an update on the potential for more serious weather-whiplash, in
this case going from historic drought to flood as the symptoms of El
Nino become more apparent. Here's an excerpt: "
As
California braces for torrential downpours this winter from El Nino,
authorities have stockpiled extra sandbags across the state while
putting hundreds of personnel through flood-control training, officials
told state lawmakers on Wednesday.
Water engineers and emergency managers addressed a state Senate hearing
in Los Angeles on preparations for the El Nino phenomenon, a recurring
climate pattern that warms parts of the Pacific and is expected to bring
severe weather to California and other regions.
The latest El Nino, with forecasts of powerful winter storms and
drenching rains, is seen as a mixed blessing for California, which is
struggling through the fourth year of a record drought..."
File photo credit from February 2, 1998 in Ventura, California: AP Photo/Nick Ut.
Could Hurricane Patricia Be A Harbinger of Storms in a Warming Climate? The oceans are warming - that's not a climate model, that's based on direct observations. Here's an excerpt at The Conversation: "...This
time, the near-record warm waters arose at least in part from El Niño.
Greenhouse warming may also have played a role, since the waters in Patricia’s path were warmer than in previous El Niños,
and have been warmer-than-normal since even before this El Niño formed.
The crucial question moving forward, though, is not what roles
greenhouse warming and El Niño played in this particular storm. Instead,
we should focus on the fact that the largest amount of warming and its
impacts are yet to come. Warming to date has been about a degree Celsius overall, and slightly less over oceans..."
A Texas Republican and NOAA Are In a Standoff over Global Warming E-mails.
Professional conspiracy theorists are chattering once again. A
cover-up, "cooking the books", or science in action? New numbers from
new and improved data sets show no slow-down in warming, no "hiatus".
Here's an excerpt from Andrew Freedman at
Mashable: "...
Smith
chairs the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, a perch
he's used to push his anti-climate science views. Smith has sought to cut NASA's earth science budget,
for example, while speaking out against the Obama administration's
plans to limit manmade global warming. Smith has also done something
unprecedented in the 54-year history of this committee: He has turned it
into an oversight body, issuing six subpoenas, including a recent one
to the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) demanding the handing over of internal scientific
correspondence concerning a landmark climate study published in one of
the top scientific journals in the world earlier this year..."
Is America Completely Unprepared for a Power Grid Cyberattack? The short answer appears to be yes. I watch the PBS Newshour every night and was surprised, no,
shocked
to see Ted Koppel warning of an almost inevitable attack on the grid. I
worked with Ted a few times on Nightline; he's not prone to hype or
exaggeration - I have a tremendous amount of respect for his
journalistic instincts. He wrote a book on the potential for a hack that
could bring down significant portions of the electrical powergrid, and
basically said, on live TV, that everyone who can afford to do so should
have a 3-6 month supply of food and water, just in case. Before you
laugh it off or dismiss it as "just another guy selling a book" check
out the
interview and video. Here's an excerpt: "...
Several
of them know that the likelihood of it happening is great. When I spoke
to Janet Napolitano just after she left as secretary of homeland
security — and she had been on the job for five years — I said to her,
what do you think the chances are of a cyber-attack on the power grid?
She said very, very high, 80 to 90 percent. It seems to me inevitable
that we have to deal with this. But maybe, because we don’t know what
the answer is, we have not even begun to do so..."
Antarctic Ozone Hole Expands to Near-Record Size. Here's the latest from
USA TODAY: "
The
Antarctic ozone hole widened to one of its largest sizes on record
earlier this month, the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
announced Thursday. The hole's large size was due to unusually cold
temperatures in the stratosphere, the level of the atmosphere where the
ozone hole and ozone layer are located, the agency said. "This shows us
that the ozone hole problem is still with us and we need to remain
vigilant. But there is no reason for undue alarm," Geir Braathen, a
senior scientist in WMO's Atmospheric and Environment Research Division,
said in a statement..." (Image credit: NASA).
NASA's TIMED Satellite Identifies Unexpected Carbon Dioxide Trends. Here's an excerpt from
Gizmag: "
NASA
has analyzed 14 years worth of data collected by its Thermosphere,
Inonosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite,
revealing a surprisingly fast increase in carbon dioxide levels in the
upper atmosphere. The stats also reveal that the gas is more localized
to the Northern Hemisphere than predicted by climate models. Human
activities like deforestation and burning fossil fuels are pumping huge
amounts of carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere. The gas is
responsible for raising temperatures close to Earth's surface, but it
has a very different effect in the upper atmosphere, reducing air
density and actually having a cooling effect..."
Image credit above: "
Data
from NASA's TIMED mission is forcing us to reassess our knowledge of
the relationship between the Earth's lower and upper atmosphere." (Credit: NASA).
New Technique Desalinates Sea Water Using Half the Power. It's innovations like this that will save us (from ourselves). Here's an excerpt from
Gizmag: "
Despite
having one of the world’s largest rivers running the length of its
country, Egypt lacks the fresh water needed to supply its growing
population. To quench an annual 7 billion cubic meter (247 billion cubic
foot) shortfall, the country has looked to desalination, which is
energy-intensive and expensive. Now, researchers from Alexandria
University have developed a technique for desalinating and cleaning
water that uses less than half the energy of current desalination
methods, making it potentially cheap enough as a viable fresh water
source..."
Image credit above: "
The process produces potable water, with 99.7 percent of the salt removed in one pass." (Credit:
Shutterstock)
2015 Tesla Model S P90D With "Ludicrous Mode".
First Test Review. I'm just amazed that Elon Musk was able to get
"Ludicrous Mode" (0 to 60 in 2.6 seconds) past the lawyers. Wow. Here's
an excerpt of a review at
Motor Trend: "
Stop
what you're doing right now. Stop texting. Get off YouTube, close
Facebook, and pause for a moment so you can truly appreciate the times
we're living in, a world where if you have the means you can go out and
buy an American-made, 762-hp, all-wheel-drive electric car that's as
capable of driving itself as it is smoking supercars off the line. That
car is the new Ludicrous-enhanced 2015 Tesla Model S P90D..."
IBM to Buy Digital Branch of Weather Company, Leaves Weather Channel Behind.
I predict The Weather Channel will be just fine, in spite of all the
hype, hoopla and understandable paranoia. Here's an excerpt from a story
at
Capital Weather Gang: "
In
a major shakeup to the weather industry, IBM announced on Wednesday
that it will purchase the Weather Company’s digital assets, including
weather.com, WSI and Weather Underground, as well as all of the Weather
Company brands. It did not, however, include the Weather Channel TV
network in the agreement, leaving the future uncertain for the
network’s meteorologists and employees. IBM is particularly interested
in the company’s “big data” platform, which powers both the in-house
Weather Company apps in addition to serving up data for 26 billion
third-party requests each day..."
2 Years After Raising Taxes on the Rich, Here's the "Hellscape" Minnesota Has Become.
Don't be mislead by the headline. Actually, we're doing pretty well in
Minnesota, all things considered, according to a story at
mic.com; here are a couple of excerpts: "...
The
critics who feared Dayton's campaign to have the top 2% pay their fair
share would ruin growth and cause business interests to flee appear to
have been crying wolf. Minnesota's labor market is healthy. Minnesota
was ranked one of the fastest-growing economies in the country by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in 2013. Gallup found
economic confidence in the state to be the highest in the nation...But
here's what we can say: Dayton's progressive vision for Minnesota has
not ruined the economy, and has likely helped it. Walker's conservative
vision has clearly not ushered in the free market paradise he
envisioned. And it's noteworthy that since the Great Recession and the
implementation of their divergent philosophies, Minnesota's economy has pulled further ahead of Wisconsin in several areas..."
The End of Craft Beer.
Say it isn't so. The definition of "craft beer" is blurring even faster
than new breweries are opening up; here's an excerpt from
Grub Street: "...
As a result, the country's biggest craft brewer today is officially Yuengling,
the independent Pennsylvania brewery most closely associated with a
middle-of-the-road lager that most people would probably call
"Bud-like," meaning it's a pale, light beer that's very easy to drink.
It's perfectly fine, but it's also at odds with the deeply flavored,
hoppy beers that craft brewers have used to set themselves apart from
Big Beer — things like double IPAs and coffee stouts that are to Miller
Lite what a handmade, wood-roasted pizza from Roberta's is to a frozen pie from Tombstone..."
Photo credit above: "Craft beer is just about to completely explode and become unrecognizable to itself." Photo: Jed Egan.
HALLOWEEN: Some sun, few showers likely. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 57
SATURDAY NIGHT: Leftover shower or sprinkle, clouds linger. Low: 43
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, a milder, nicer day. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 63
MONDAY: More clouds than sun, above average. Wake-up: 47. High: 62
TUESDAY: Sunny, unusually mild for November. Wake-up: 46. High: 66
WEDNESDAY: What November? Warm sunshine. Wake-up: 51. High: near 70
THURSDAY: Sunny start, rain arrives late. Wake-up: 47. High: 53
FRIDAY: Potentially heavy rain. Wake-up: 45. High: 48 (falling)
Climate Stories...
Climate Change and Creation Care.
The Catholic church continues to be a voice in the climate change
discussion where the Bishops from around the world plead for climate
change action. “The bishops also asked governments to recognize the
"ethical and moral dimensions of climate change," to recognize that the
climate and the atmosphere are common goods belonging to all, to set a
strong limit on global temperature increase and to promote new models of
development and lifestyles that are "climate compatible."
On Saturday, November 7th at 9a in Prior Lake, MN
Shepherd of the Lake Lutheran Church
is hosting a Creation Care event that will examine the intersection of
faith, climate change and weather. Presenters include myself, Dr. John
Abraham (climate scientist from the University of St. Thomas) and faith
leaders from the Lutheran, Methodist, MCC and Catholic church. RSVP at:
http://www.sollc.org/creationcare.
How Exxon Overstates the Uncertainty in Climate Science. Here's an excerpt of the latest installment of a series at
InsideClimate News: "...
Testing people's reaction to one such complicated graph,
Rosemarie McMahon and two other Zurich experts found that the
test-takers commonly missed the point. People didn't see that our
choices, not the models, will determine how much warming we are in for.
The result, says an article they published in the journal Climatic
Change, is "a misguided perception that climate science is too uncertain
to play any significant role in policy decisions." If the researchers
found many of their test subjects utterly befuddled by the graph, Cohen
did little to clarify things. His point in highlighting that particular
chart was to emphasize scientific uncertainty, an approach Exxon has
pursued for decades..."
Graph credit above: "
Exxon
spokesman Ken Cohen either misunderstood or misrepresented the chart
pictured above as he pushed back against an InsideClimate News
investigation into what Exxon's own scientists knew about the emerging
risks of climate change, and when they knew it."
Fossil Fuel Companies Aren't Just Bad for the Climate - They're Bad Investments. Grist makes the case; here's the intro: "
Activists
often use moral language when advocating for divestment from fossil
fuel companies: It is wrong to participate in the destruction of our
planet, say college students and the parishioners of liberal churches.
We should express our disapproval by divesting, they argue,
and help to build momentum for carbon regulation and cleaner energy
sources. But what if fossil fuels are just bad investments? What if oil,
gas, and coal companies have sunk billions of dollars into buying up
the rights to carbon fuels that they will never actually be able to
extract? That’s what a growing band of financiers argue, and the people
who follow their investment advice are benefiting from it..."
Buy Coal Now!
Should climate-concerned billionaires pay up to keep remaining coal in
the ground - indefinitely? Here's an excerpt of a story at
The Atlantic: "...
Most
climate regulations focus on making it more expensive to emit
greenhouse gases. The cap-and-trade systems run by both the European
Union and, soon, China
take this approach: The thing they’re capping and trading is emissions.
Frost believes that instead of regulating to limit the burning of
fossil fuels, we should just never remove the fuels from earth’s crust
in the first place. Coal-fired power plants release about 40 percent of global carbon emissions and are a frequent target
of climate policies. Frost thinks we should pay the organizations which
own underground coal deposits—specifically, the U.S. government—for the
right to never mine it..."
Illustration credit above:
Stephanie Shafer
A Few Questions for Those Who Think Global Warming Isn't Real. The accumulation of coincidences continues, in fact its accelerating. Here's an excerpt from
Slate: "
If global warming is a hoax ...
… then why was this September globally the hottest September on record by a substantial margin?
… then why were seven of the months in 2015 (so far!) the hottest of those months on record (February the hottest February on record, and so on)?
… then why is 2015 on track to be by far the hottest year on record?
… then why was the last warmest year on record just last year?
… then why are the 10 hottest years all since 1998?
… then why are we seeing far more high temperature records broken than lows?..."
Image credit above: Shutterstock/Barnaby Chamber.
Ignorance for a Price: How the Fossil Fuel Industry Pays Politicians to Doubt Science. When in doubt follow the money. Here's an excerpt from
DeSmogBlog: "...
As Open Secrets reports, the oil &
gas industries have pumped more than $36 million into the upcoming 2016
elections, with 93% of that money going to Republicans. In 2014, that
total was $64 million, and 87% went to Republicans. In 2012, a
presidential election year, the amount from these two industries topped
$76 million, with 89% going into the campaign coffers of Republicans. The coal industry is also a major player
in American politics, and for 2016, 2014, and 2012, the industry
donated $2 million, $11 million, and $15 million, respectively, with an
average of 94% of that money going to Republicans. This money buys so
much more than political favors..."
Imagine if Exxon Had Told The Truth on Climate Change. Bill McKibbon ponders the imponderable at
The Guardian; here's a snippet: "...
And
if you think it’s just scientists and environmentalists thinking this
way, it’s actually almost anyone with a conscience. Here’s how the editorial board of the Dallas Morning News
— Exxon’s hometown paper, the morning read of the oil patch— put it in
an editorial last week: “With profits to protect, Exxon provided
climate-change doubters a bully pulpit they didn’t deserve and gave
lawmakers the political cover to delay global action until long after
the environmental damage had reached severe levels. That’s the
inconvenient truth as we see it.” Those years weren’t inconvenient for
Exxon, of course. Year after year throughout the last two decades
they’ve made more money than any company in the history of money. But
poor people around the world are already paying for those profits, and
every generation that follows us now will pay as well, because the
“Exxon position” has helped take us over one tipping point after
another. Their sins of emission, like so many other firms and
individuals, are bad. But their sins of omission are truly inexcusable." (File photo: Jamie Rector, Bloomberg).
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