33 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities Monday.
25 F. average high on December 21.
39 F. high on December 21, 2014.
December 22, 2000: A chilly day in Minnesota, with a high of zero degrees in Minneapolis, and a low of 14 below.
Snow Drought ContinuesGlancing Blows of Cold Air
"Oh
the weather outside is frightful..." Not so much. Old Man Winter has
joined the witness protection program, hunkering down somewhere in the
Yukon. The odds of a white Christmas in the MSP metro are slim to nil.
That won't stop Santa, but kids of all ages are flummoxed at the thought
of the second brown Christmas in a row at MSP.
Yes, the lack of
ice has helped commuters, and MnDOT is going to throw a huge statewide
party with the money they're not using to plow metro roads, but a snowy
no-show at Christmas just seems...off.
If we're lucky we might wind up with a shoe-full of slush by Christmas Eve. Today looks dry;
Wednesday's
anemic storm starts as rain and changes to a coating of slush by
nightfall, but the brunt of the "storm" stays east over Wisconsin. If you squint and pretend - there may be Tulsa-like smear of
white on your lawn Christmas Eve, but I suspect this will be a brown Christmas in the Twin Cities.
Another inch or so of slush is possible
on Saturday but no problems getting home
on Sunday. The remnants of a big, southern storm may push a swirl of rain into town
next Tuesday.
No polar plunges, just dribs and drabs of snow - and an occasional, obligatory cold front.
Winter Lite.
Waiting for Winter.
Models show highs in the upper 60s and low 70s as far north as New York
City on Christmas Eve. Or is it Halloween? Labor Day? Winter is still
missing in action. Graphic: Aeris Enterprise.
Two Chances for "Precipitation".
I don't see any big snowfalls looking out into next week, but there is a
potential for a light, slushy accumulation Saturday, maybe a mix of icy
precipitation again next Tuesday.
Perpetual Spring.
2-meter temperatures are forecast to surge over 70F across much of the
eastern seaboard Christmas Eve; hundreds of cities will set records for
daytime highs (and record warm nighttime lows). Meanwhile the 32F
isotherm continues to oscillate back and forth across Minnesota. 84-hour
NAM forecast: NOAA and AerisWeather.
Couple of Slop-Storms?
Daytime highs run consistently above freezing into early next week; the
best chance of a 40F high today. Models show a noticeable cooling trend
by the end of next week, even a few days below average. Watch for a
little slush Friday night into Saturday, a good travel day on Sunday,
maybe another icy mix by Tuesday of next week. Source: Weatherspark.
Couple of Near-Misses.
Today's weak system may drop a couple inches of snow on the Red River
Valley, on Wednesday a few inches may fall near Eau Claire, Spooner and
Hayward, Wisconsin - the brunt of any moisture passing east of MSP.
84-hour snowfall potential. NAM and AerisWeather.
Glancing Blows of Colder Air.
A Pacific flow lingers across much of America into the first week of
January, but surges of colder, Canadian air will brush the far northern
USA; the thrust of the cold fronts aimed at New England, not the
Midwest. We'll see a few cold corrections, but the overall pattern is
still milder than average looking out 2 weeks. Source: GrADS:COLA/IGES.
In Search of Subzero.
During a typical winter MSP enjoys about 30 nights below 0F. This
winter: maybe 5 or 10 (in late January?) We may not even see that many
nights of negative numbers. GFS guidance keeps us above zero looking out
2 weeks, metro temperatures coming close to 0 around New Year's Day -
followed by another warming trend.
A White-Hot Christmas Wraps Up Earth's Hottest Year on Record.
Bloomberg has the story; here's an excerpt: "
Frosty
didn’t stand a chance. This has been by far the hottest year on record,
and it’s ending with an exclamation point. Holiday shoppers in New
York’s Rockefeller Center have been checking off their lists in weather
that’s an eerie 20 degrees warmer than normal. Meanwhile, another stack
of global temperature records has fallen. Last month was the hottest
November in 136 years of data, according to U.S. figures released on
Thursday, making it the ninth record-breaking month of 2015. This year
has been so far off the charts, it’s certain to go down as the hottest
year on record even if December turns out to be unusually cool (it
won’t)..." (Photo credit: Akio Kon, Bloomberg).
A Stunning New Photo from the Moon: Earthrise. Phil Plait takes a look at what made this remarkable photo possible at
Slate; here's an excerpt: "
Holy sweet mother of Earth. This incredible photo
was taken by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, which has been mapping
the Moon since it achieved orbit in 2009. Its cameras are usually
pointed straight down (what’s called nadir viewing), but sometimes the
whole spacecraft is rotated to point them toward the horizon, or even up
into space, to measure the Moon’s incredibly thin atmosphere (called an
exosphere, which, c’mon, is an extremely cool word) or to take
calibration measurements..." (Photo credit: NASA).
El Nino Forecast to Remain Strong into the Winter Months.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a return to ENSO-neutral
conditions by late spring or early summer of 2016. For more details
click
here.
Climate Change and El Nino Fueled 2015's Record Heat. Here's an excerpt from
Climate Nexus: "...
While
the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is responsible for a large part
of the variation in weather we see in the global climate from one year
to the next, a study conducted by scientists with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative
finds that climate change is the dominant cause of 2015’s record
warmth. Using well-established techniques from peer-reviewed literature,
the scientists estimated 2015’s global temperature anomaly to be 1.89°F
(1.05°C) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline and determined
that roughly 1.8°F (1.0°C) of 2015’s temperature anomaly was due to
human-caused climate change. The WWA analysis found that El Niño was
responsible for 0.09°F to 0.18°F (0.05°C to 0.1°C) of 2015’s record
warmth. This means, El Niño caused at most 10 percent of the warming,
with the other 90 percent being due to climate change..."
2015: The Hottest Year on Record.
Climate Nexus
produced a companion video and excellent overview with more detail on
the record-warm anomalies and the additional heat manifested itself with
record heat, drought and severe storms. This is 1C of warming, imagine
what 3C warming might do: "
2015 will be the hottest year on record - and the impacts related to warming have been devastating."
As Sea Levels Rise, Are Coastal Nuclear Plants Ready? National Geographic takes a look - here's an excerpt: "...
The industry is now reevaluating its flood risks, and hatched a strategy it calls FLEX,
where key backup equipment is stationed at multiple locations so it can
be shuttled to a distressed plant. This way, instead of defining a
theoretical crisis—a storm surge of a certain height, a hurricane by
category—ahead of time, says Jim Riley of the industry's Nuclear Energy
Institute, "we're saying, give us the event and we'll deploy the
equipment." Some think more needs
to be done, faster. "The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been slow to
implement those Fukushima lessons learned," says Matthew McKinzie, nuclear program director at the environmental group Natural Resources Defense Council. "Nuclear safety is a work in progress..."
Graphic credit above: Andrew Umentum, NG Staff. Source: Climate Central; Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
AP Investigation: U.S. Power Grid Vulnerable to Foreign Hacks. Another argument for not only emergency generators, but micro-grids and solar power back-up. Here's an excerpt from Yahoo News: "...About
a dozen times in the last decade, sophisticated foreign hackers have
gained enough remote access to control the operations networks that keep
the lights on, according to top experts who spoke only on condition of
anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject matter. The public
almost never learns the details about these types of attacks — they're
rarer but also more intricate and potentially dangerous than data theft.
Information about the government's response to these hacks is often
protected and sometimes classified; many are never even reported to the
government..." (File image: NatGeo).
How To Talk To Your Kids About the Weather - Really. TIME has the story - here's a link and excerpt: "People
talk about the weather all the time. But is it ever really interesting?
In the winter, actually yes! Winter’s a great time to get elementary
kids hooked on meteorology, says Bob Henson, a meteorologist and blogger
at Weather Underground: “With all the variety and rapid changes, it’s
one of the coolest times to watch the weather.” And there’s no better
lab, he says, than the atmosphere around us every day..."
2015: The Best Year in History for the Average Human Being. News tends to focus on the negative, but the overall picture for much of the planet is positive, argues this story at
The Atlantic. Here's an excerpt: "
From
Paris to Syria through San Bernardino to Afghanistan, the world
witnessed obscene and unsufferable tragedy in 2015. That was on top of
the ongoing misery of hundreds of millions who are literally stunted by
poverty, living lives shortened by preventable disease and malnutrition.
But for all of that, 2015 also saw continued progress toward better
quality of life for the considerable majority of the planet, alongside
technological breakthroughs and political agreements that suggest the
good news might continue next year and beyond. Tragedy and misery are
rarer than they were before 2015—and there is every reason to hope they
will be even less prevalent in 2016..."
Winter’s
a great time to get elementary kids hooked on meteorology, says Bob
Henson, a meteorologist and blogger at Weather Underground: “With all
the variety and rapid changes, it’s one of the coolest times to watch
the weather.” And there’s no better lab, he says, than the atmosphere
around us every day.
Winter’s
a great time to get elementary kids hooked on meteorology, says Bob
Henson, a meteorologist and blogger at Weather Underground: “With all
the variety and rapid changes, it’s one of the coolest times to watch
the weather.” And there’s no better lab, he says, than the atmosphere
around us every day.
How To Live to 100: Researchers Find New Genetic Clues.
TIME has another interesting article; here's the intro: "
In
a new analysis, researchers explore whether people live longer because
they avoid disease or because they possess some anti-aging secret. If
you live to be 100, you’re in a special group, one that longevity
scientists are eagerly studying for clues to battling aging. But are
these centenarians long-lived because they don’t get the diseases that
fell the rest of us—heart problems, diabetes, dementia, arthritis and
more—or because they are protected somehow against the effects of aging?..."
Has Capitalism Devoured Christmas? Here's a snippet of an interesting Op-Ed at
The Washington Post: "...
We
also shouldn’t forget the many virtues of markets. Markets generate
wealth on a vast scale, which, used properly, enables the Christian
life: It is much easier to live the Christian virtues and to meet our
obligations to family and community when we aren’t worried about finding
our next meal or freezing to death on a cold winter night. Markets
require freedom, which is a virtue too easily overlooked. Markets are
structured to enable the mutual benefit of participants..." (Image credit:
Mark Conner's Space).
Boy Scout Leader Fights Off Bear Attack with Hammer in New Jersey. Good grief, this takes "Be Prepared" to a whole new level. Here's an excerpt from
TIME: "
He was in the cave with the bear for about 80 minutes. A New Jersey Boy Scout leader fought off a black bear with a hammer after the animal dragged him into a cave
by his foot while he was hiking with three young Scouts, authorities
said. Christopher Petronino, 50, suffered bites on his leg and both
shoulders but managed to fend off the bear during the Sunday attack by
hitting it twice in the head with a rock hammer, NJ.com reports..."
Image credit: NJ.com, which has
more details. "
A
Boy Scouts leader was attacked by a bear while he was with three scouts
in the woods near Splitrock Reservoir, Mayor Mike Dachisen confirmed." (Marisa Iati | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)
My favorite headline comes from Dave Pell at
Nextdraft:
"
Host
Steve Harvey nearly blew up the Internet over the weekend when he named
Colombian contestant Ariadna Gutierrez Arevalo as this year's Miss
Universe. He had to return to the stage -- as Arevalo's crown was
removed -- and report that he meant to say Miss Philippines. In fairness to Harvey, it's a giant universe and he successfully narrowed it down to two people..."
Image credit:
radaronline.com.
TODAY: Gray skies, dry roads. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 39
TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast, a little ice possible by daybreak Wednesday. Low: 33
WEDNESDAY: Rain ends as a little slushy snow. High: 37
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, dry Christmas Eve. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 24. High: 31
CHRISTMAS DAY: Overcast, light mix possible Friday night. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 26. High: 36
SATURDAY: Period of wet snow, a little slush? Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 33
SUNDAY: Sunny breaks, better travel day. Winds: N 10-15. Wake-up: 21. High: near 30
MONDAY: Clouds thicken, dry roads. Wake-up: 19. High: 32
* Photo credit
here.
Climate Stories...
Freakish Winter Warmth: It's Not (not) Global Warming. The long-term warming we've been experiencing set the stage; El Nino was merely the hot icing on the cake, according to
The Union of Concerned Scientists; here's a clip: "...
The
specifics of what’s happening where El Niño, Arctic dynamics, and
underlying warming meet are, in a word, complex, and scientists are
actively discussing how things might play out. But the collective bottom
line recognizes that global warming plays a role. NOAA’s Deke Arndt
puts it this way, as reported by the Guardian:
“Long-term climate change is like climbing a flight of stairs: over
time you get higher and higher. El Niño is like standing on your tippy
toes when you’re on one of those stairs. Both of those together work to
create the warmest temperature on record. We would not be threatening
records repeatedly if we had not climbed the stairs for decades...”
Graphic credit: NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 2015 temperature trend in green.
Exxon Uses Weapons of Mass Confusion on Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of a Jim Hightower Op-Ed at
Lubbock Online: "...
Their
strategy was to create an incessant noise machine, fueled with hundreds
of millions of industry dollars, to spread the false narrative that
scientists are “uncertain” about climate change. In a confidential 1998
memo, ExxonMobil’s senior environmental lobbyist stated the Orwellian
goal of this corporate campaign: “Victory will be achieved when ...
average citizens ‘understand’ uncertainties in climate science,” and
when “recognition of uncertainty becomes part of the ‘conventional
wisdom.’” Their many tactics included: forming a lobbying combine in
1989 to sow doubt among public officials about the need for government
action; placing a very costly, decade-long series of essays in
newspapers denigrating the very scientists it previously nurtured and
the science reports it published..."
Exxon's Support of a Tax on Carbon: Rhetoric or Reality? InsideClimate News takes a look; here's an excerpt: "...
Greg
Dotson, vice president for energy policy at the Center for American
Progress, a public policy organization supporting a list of progressive
issues, urges a close study of what Exxon is saying. The company isn't
explicitly saying it wants a carbon tax, but is saying it prefers a
carbon tax to other options in the face of regulatory intervention. "Are
they saying this is the best of bad options, or are they saying we
support a carbon tax?" Dotson said. "The full understanding of what they
support has not come to light..."
People Who Were Certain Climate Change is Fake Are Now Certain Paris Can't Stop It. Call me crazy but conservatism should apply to the very thing that sustains us.
New York Magazine takes a look at the fall-out from COP21, the new climate deal negotiated in Paris; here's an excerpt: "...
Conservative economic thought is structurally different
from liberal thought. Liberal support for expanded government is based
entirely in practical expectation that new programs can deliver concrete
results — cleaner air, healthier children, higher wages for low-income
workers, and so on. Conservative antipathy to expanded government is
based ultimately on philosophical opposition. For that reason, data can
change liberal economic thinking in a way it can’t change conservative
economic thinking..."
Climate Change - A Mom's View. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at
The Tallahassee Democrat that caught my eye: "...
All
parents want to provide a safe place for our children to grow, live and
to reach their God-given potential, but by no fault of their own, their
future is threatened by the effects of climate change. We read stories
about epic storms and their human toll, droughts that turn fertile land
into deserts, and California water reserves drying up. We see images of
skinny polar bears and melting arctic ice, bleached coral and dying
oceans. And closer to home, we hear about sunny-day flooding in Miami
Beach, experience record high temperatures and prepare for super storms.
It’s no wonder busy parents just tune it all out and hope for the best –
a feeling of helplessness has set in..." (File image: 350.org).
We're Doomed - Now What? Not my take on what is possible or even inevitable, but here's a snippet of an interesting perspective in an Op-Ed at
The New York Times: "...
We
all see what’s happening, we read it in the headlines every day, but
seeing isn’t believing, and believing isn’t accepting. We respond
according to our prejudices, acting out of instinct, reflex and
training. Right-wing denialists insist that climate change isn’t
happening, or that it’s not caused by humans, or that the real problem
is terrorism or refugees, while left-wing denialists insist that the
problems are fixable, under our control, merely a matter of political
will. Accelerationists argue that more technology is the answer.
Incrementalists tell us to keep trusting the same institutions and
leaders that have been failing us for decades. Activists say we have to
fight, even if we’re sure to lose..."
Why We Shouldn't Confuse Climate and Weather. Here's a snippet from
The Guardian: "...
We
have always been baffled by the weather and have often used strange
arguments to explain its unexpected behaviour. More than 2,000 years
ago, one hapless Roman citizen was so worried that unusual gales and
storms might be due to the impiety of the nation that he asked the gods
for guidance via a carved lead tablet which he left at a local oracle.
Today we have a better idea of the factors that influence our weather,
though we still struggle to make sense of the reams of data – wind,
pressure, sunshine, temperature, moisture levels, and other factors –
that we now know influence the daily regimes of rain and sun that we
experience..."
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