Monday, August 14, 2017

What August? In Search of Minnesota's Dog Days

Simulated Radar Ahead...
Here's the simulated radar from AM Tuesday to AM Thursday, which shows another round of showers and storms pushing through the region midweek. Note that the best chance of heavier rain moves through during the day Wednesday before tapering early Thursday. 

Rainfall Potential Ahead

The rainfall forecast  through PM Thursday shows fairly decent rainfall potential moving back into the Upper Midwest as we head into midweek. Some of the heaviest rain looks to fall on Wednesday, where some 1" to near 2" tallies could be possible.

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"El Nino's Absence May Fuel a Stormy Hurricane Season"

"The hurricane season is likely to be extra active this year, thanks to a likely no-show from El Niño. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released an updated hurricane season outlook today (Aug. 9). The new prediction ups the odds for a blustery, extremely active hurricane season – and possibly even the most active since 2010. "We're now entering the peak of the season, when the bulk of the storms usually form," Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement. "The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is, in part, because the chance of El Niño forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May." (El Niño is a climate phenomenon most distinguished by the shift of warm water from the western to the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.)"

See more from Live Science HERE:

(The powerful Hurricane Katrina, a Category-5 storm, is seen here in a satellite image from Aug. 28, 2005. Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team)

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GERT in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is tracking GERT in the Atlantic basin, which is 7th named storm of the 2017 season. The good news is that GERT is not expected to post any major threats to the U.S. as it moves northeast away from the East Coast over the next few days.



 Tracking GERT

Here's the official track for GERT, which shows it becoming the 2nd hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 
 Atlantic Outlook: Next 5 Days
Weather conditions in the Atlantic basin remain fairly active over the next few days. While GERT lifts northeast away from the East Coast, NOAA's NHC will be tracking another wave of energy drifting west in the Central Atlantic that has a moderate chance of tropical formation within the next 5 days.

Eastern Pacific Outlook: Next 5 Days
The Eastern Pacific also remains fairly active as a couple of waves drift west away from Mexico. One has a low chance of tropical formation within the next 5 days, but the other has a moderate chance. Stay tuned.
 
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 "States With the Most Dangerous Weather"

"Tropical Storm Emily formed off the coast of Florida and made landfall on Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected over the region throughout the week. It’s storm season, and while ocean storms like Emily are difficult to anticipate and may certainly wreak havoc, for Florida and other coastal states such weather events are normal for the season. Still, the elements take many forms, and even states that routinely experience extreme weather can be caught off guard. Be it roof-wrenching winds, scorching heat, torrential rainfalls, life-ending lightning strikes, or freezing cold, every state gets a taste of nature’s raw power. Most agree that weather is dangerous. Just over 11,000 deaths and nearly 70,000 weather-related injuries were reported across the country between 2012 and 2016. The danger of extreme weather seems to know no boundary. Each year, victims may have been at home, outside, camping, golfing, playing sports, boating, swimming, or talking on the phone. Weather-related fatality-rates also vary considerably between states."

See more from 247wallst.com HERE:

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PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Map
It certainly has been a fairly active first half of 2017 with 1221 preliminary tornado reports through August 13th. Note that this is the most tornadoes through August 13th since 2011, when there were 1,701 reports. The map below shows the distribution of the tornadoes so far this year.
PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Count
According to NOAA's SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1221 (through August 12th). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were 1,701 tornadoes. Keep in mind there was a major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast region from April 25-28, 2011 that spawned nearly 500 tornadoes, some of which were deadly. That outbreak is known as the Super Outbreak of 2011 and has gone down in history as one of the biggest, costliest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in history.

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Lightning Fatalities So Far in 2017

According to NOAA, there have been 13 lightning fatalities so far this year with the most recent happening on August 2nd in Brewster, OH. Note that there have been 5 deaths in Florida, which is known as the lightning capital of the world!

See more from NOAA HERE:



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National Weather Hazards Ahead...
1.) Heavy rain across portions of upstate New York and New England, Thu-Fri, Aug 17-18.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Central and Southern Plains and the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, Thu-Fri, Aug 17-Aug 18.
3.) Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and southwestern mainland Alaska, Thu, Aug 17.
4.) Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Mon, Aug 21.
5.) Slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for portions of the Southern Plains, Tue-Fri, Aug 22-Aug 25.
6.) Severe Drought across parts of the Great Plains, western Corn Belt, northern Rockies, Arizona, California, and Hawaii.
_________________________________________________________ "Dry weather putting strain on Sask. farmers"
"Agriculture Canada says there are severe drought conditions in much of southern Saskatchewan, with some areas of extreme drought. Environment Canada figures show Regina had only 1.8 millimetres of rain last month -- the driest July in 130 years. It was the driest July ever recorded in Moose Jaw, which got 4.3 millimetres of rain in July, beating a record of 4.6 millimetres set in 1929. Area cattle producers are facing poor grazing conditions and limited hay cutting -- and there's growing concern about possible feed shortages."
See more from Regina.CTVNews.CA HERE:
 
_____________________________________________________________________"Seed shortage next spring is a real possibility"
"Ken Bertsch, North Dakota’s state seed commissioner, says farmers should take into account how escalating drought conditions across the state may impact the outlook for seed supplies next spring. “The drought is really hitting statewide in North Dakota, but particularly in the western part of the state,” said Bertsch. “When it comes to the crops raised primarily in the western part of the state, that’s where we are starting to see some real problems develop, as well as seed supply issues. ”Bertsch pinpointed durum and field peas in particular, because both commodities have the bulk of their acres in the affected region. Expanding drought conditions throughout the state mean that both seed quantity and quality may be affected, potentially resulting in a seed shortage next spring. Dry conditions have also reduced the number of acres in the certification program this year. “We have a reduction of acres being applied for certification this year. All of our crops are down and over all they’re down 20-25 percent in the agency. Not only are acres down, but we also know we’re going to have reduced yields this year, so that’s a problem,” explained Bertsch. He said they normally certify 300,000-plus acres per year, but this year they may be down closer to 200,000-250,000 acres."
See more from FarmandRanchGuide.com HERE:
(Drought conditions throughout the state may impact the outlook for seed supplies next spring.)
 
__________________________________________________________________________"SD farmers to take in smallest wheat harvest since 2002, also a drought year"
"South Dakota’s farmers will glean the least wheat this year since 2002, when a drought cut grain yields in a way similar to this summer. According to a USDA production report released on Thursday, the state’s farmers will harvest only 24.7-million bushels of the winter wheat planted last fall. That would be the lowest since 2002, when only 20.1-million bushels were produced, according to figures from USDA’s ag-statistics service in Sioux Falls. About all of the winter wheat has been harvested in the state. Hard red spring wheat production this year will total only 30.1-million bushels in the state. That would be the lowest since 24-million bushels were harvested in 2002. Two-thirds of the state’s spring wheat had been combined by Sunday, USDA reported. Total wheat harvested this year will be 54.7-million bushels in South Dakota, down from 111.1 million in 2016, and the lowest since 44.1-million bushels in 2002. That was a year of bad drought, with most crops rated in poor or very poor condition by mid-summer. This year, the USDA’s crop ratings, done by the ag-statistics office, show as bad or worse conditions, in the case of some crops, as harvest season continues."
See more from CAPJournal
____________________________________________________________________Rain Needed to End Drought
Exceptional and Extreme drought conditions are in place over parts of Montana and North and South Dakota due to several days/week of hot and dry weather. The image below suggests how much rain would be needed to end the drought, which suggests nearly 6" to 12" or more!


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National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through the next week, which shows somewhat active weather conditions across parts of the central and eastern US. Scattered showers and storms will bring areas of locally heavy rain to some of these locations. Also keep in mind that some of these storms could be strong to severe.

Severe Threats: Tuesday

According to NOAA's SPC, there is a SLIGHT risk of severe storms across parts of the Central US on Tuesday. The MARGINAL risk stretches as far south as the Texas Panhandle, while another MARGINAL threat has been issued for parts of the Northern New England States.

Excessive Rainfall Potential Tuesday & Wednesday
According to NOAA's WPC, there is a risk of excessive rain on Tuesday & Wednesday, mainly across the Central US. While the severe storm threat remains lower on Wednesday, widespread showers and storms could lead to localized areas of flooding through midweek. Note that there is a SLIGHT risk of excessive rainfall across parts of the Midwest both Tuesday and Wednesday.


Localized Heavy Rain Threats
Excessive rainfall will be possible across parts of the Central US, the heaviest of which looks to fall Central Plains and into the Midwest. There could be widespread 1" to 3"+ tallies possible through AM Saturday.


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Modoc July Complex - Northern California
The Modoc July Complex in northern California is another large wildfire in the Western US that quickly developed in late July, but has been sitting at 83,120 acres burned over the last several days thanks to the efforts of firefighters.  This particular fire started on Monday, July 24th by lightning! There are still 682 people working on the fire and is 97% contained. The estimated containment date is expected to be on Wednesday, August 16th. 


Ongoing Large Wildfires
Here's a look at the current wildfire map across the country. Recent hot and dry weather has helped to spark several wildfires across the Western US. The good news is that cooler and potentially wetter conditions will help firefighters combat any fires that are currently burning.

National Smoke Analysis

Here's the projected wildfire smoke concentration for midday Tuesday, which suggests that smoke from wildfires burning across parts of Canada and the Western US could continue to linger around the Northwest and the Great Lakes Region There also appears a very high concentration of smoke from fires burning across the western half of Canada. If you are in these areas, air quality could be a little poor, but these areas may also be enjoying very interesting looking sunrises/sunsets, which tend to look hazy or reddish-orange.


"Wildfire Smoke Brought Radioactivity and Ozone"

"Now many folks were unhappy with the low visibility and dismal skies during our wildfire smoke period.  And I know a number of you were discomforted by the particles in the air. But there is more.   According to U.S. government measurements, radioactivity and ozone were higher as well. I wasn't aware of the radioactivity issue until I received an email from Tim Celeski of WeatherOLA.com who provided a link to the Environmental Protection Agency's RadNet website (another good reason why we need EPA, by the way). Here is the gamma radiation count from Seattle. Gamma radiation is very high energy electromagnetic radiation and are capable of ionizing (stripping electrons) from atoms.  Values jumped up on August 3, when the smoke reached Seattle and started to decline yesterday.  Note that is a logarithmic scale so the jump is significant."

See more from Cliff Masters Weather Blog HERE:

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What August? In Search of Minnesota's Dog Days
By Paul Douglas

When August finally shows up would someone please text/tweet/FedEx me? The maps look like something out of mid-June, not mid-August, with frequent frontal passages, as Canadian air leaks south of the border with alarming frequency. Payback for an unusually warm start to 2017? Perhaps.

August is known for "Dog Days", named for the brightest star in the nighttime sky, Sirius. Ancient Greeks noticed the hottest weather of the year coincided with the "Dog Star" visible at night. They thought light from the star added to the heat of our sun, to make it feel even hotter here on Earth.

This week brings a streak of 70s, but 80s should be the rule next week, and weather for the State Fair looks sticky, with a few days near 90F. Speaking of warmth next weekend will be more lake-friendly. An isolated T-shower Saturday gives way to mid-80s on Sunday; the nicer day to fish, golf, bike - or loiter on the deck.

Eclipse-fever is building. ECMWF (European) guidance hints at a few T-storms for Minnesota and Iowa next Monday. Keep your expectations low; maybe we'll all be pleasantly surprised.
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Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Warm sun, rare dry day. Winds: SE 7-12. High: 80.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance for showers and storms. Winds: ESE 5. Low: 65
WEDNESDAY: Heavy showers and T-storms. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 74
THURSDAY: Showers taper, patchy clouds. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 64. High: 77
FRIDAY: Warm sun, few storms far north.Winds: NW 3-8. Wake-up: 62. High: 79.
SATURDAY: Sticky sun, stray T-storm possible. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 63. High: 81.
SUNDAY: Sunnier, warmer & drier. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.
Monday: Few T-storms, risk of an eclipse. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 68. High: 83.
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This Day in Weather History
August 15th
1936: St. Paul swelters with a high of 108.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 15th
Average High: 81F (Record: 103F set in 1936)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 47F set in 1960)
Record Rainfall: 1.23" set in 1966
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 15th
Sunrise: 6:15am
Sunset: 8:18pm
Hours of Daylight: 14hours & 04mins
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~2 minutes and 46 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20th): ~2 hours & 33 minutes
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Moon Phase for August 14th at Midnight
0.2 Days After Last Quarter
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Weather Outlook For Tuesday
High temps on Tuesday will run a little cooler than average once again with readings only topping out in the 70s across the state. While it won't feel too terribly warm out there, it will feel a big muggy for some across the southern half of the state with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday

A very light east to southeasterly wind will blow across the state on Tuesday. These easterly winds will will be ahead of a developing storm system that will bring more rain to the region midweek.

 
Weather Outlook For Tuesday

Tuesday looks like one of the drier days of the week, but more rain/thunder will push in late with more widespread stuff developing on Wednesday. 

 
UV Index for Tuesday- HIGH
The UV Index for Tuesday will be HIGH, which means that it will only 20 to 30 minutes or less to burn unprotected skin. With that said, if you are planning on spending any extended length of time outside, make sure you wear appropriate attire and lather on the sun block!
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Minneapolis Temperature Outlook
Here's the temperature outlook through August 29th, which shows temps bouncing around the 70s through the week. 

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook from August 24th to August 28th suggests warmer than average temperatures moving in across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes.

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Extended Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook through August 28th shows that much of the nation will be back to above average temperatures with the exception of the Northwest.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended 850mb temperature anomaly loop through the middle part of next week. This describes how warm or cold (from average) mid/low level temperatures will be over time. Note that the cooler blues look to linger across parts of the nation over the next few days, but the warmer reds/oranges looks to move in across much of the nation as we head into next week.
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Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather outlook over the next couple of days shows stormy weather continuing across the Central and Eastern part of the county with areas of isolated strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall, which could lead to areas of flooding.
5 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the next several days could produce areas of locally heavy rainfall across many in the eastern half of the country, especially in the Central US. Some of the heaviest rainfall could add up to as much as 1" to 3"+, which could also lead to areas of localized flooding.
 
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"Deforestation and Drought in the Tropics Are the Biggest Threats to U.S. Forest Birds"
"Within 40 years, migratory songbirds will face greater danger where they overwinter in Central America than where they nest, new research says. When you pick up a field guide and examine the range map of the Tennessee Warbler, it looks as though North America makes up the bulk of its habitat and that it migrates south for a short winter vacation. But the reality is reversed: This forest species, and others like it, spend the majority of the year in Central America—and there, it might face greater threats in the future. A new study, published in Global Change Biology, found that 21 forest songbirds that breed in North America spend 60 percent of the year on average in their Central American wintering areas. Computer models showed that by 2050 these species will experience more pressure from land-use and climate change in Central America than at their northern breeding grounds, suggesting that these areas require more attention now in order to protect birds throughout the hemisphere."
 

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"Massive El Niño sent greenhouse-gas emissions soaring"
"Disruptive weather pattern in 2014–2016 spurred tropical forests to pump out 3 billion tonnes of carbon. The monster El Niño weather pattern of 2014–16 caused tropical forests to burp up 3 billion tonnes of carbon, according to a new analysis. That's equivalent to nearly 20% of the emissions produced during the same period by burning fossil fuels and making cement. Measurements taken by NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite, which measures the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, suggest that El Niño boosted emissions in three ways. A combination of high temperatures and drought increased the number and severity of wildfires in southeast Asia, while drought stunted plant growth in the Amazon rainforest, reducing the amount of carbon it absorbed. And in Africa, a combination of warming temperatures and near-normal rainfall increased the rate at which forests exhaled CO2. The overall jump in emissions from tropical forests was roughly three times the annual average carbon output from deforestation and land-use change globally between 2006 and 20151."
(The number and severity of forest fires in Asia — such as this blaze in Indonesia — increased during the recent El Niño weather event.)
 
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"2016 Was Hot, Weird, and Unprecedented, Says NOAA"
"Five lessons from the agency’s report on the year’s record-breaking weather. 2016 was a stormy, sweltering, and altogether exceptional year for Earth’s climate system, breaking dozens of records across every type of environment before ultimately ranking as the hottest year ever measured, according to a new report from the U.S. government released on Thursday. This finding did not come as a surprise to climate scientists, and it may even sound like old news to some readers. The world’s top weather agencies have warned since April of last year that 2016 would prove especially steamy, and the warmest-ever record was declared official in January. But the full scope of the year’s irregularity only became clear now, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published its annual State of the Climate report for 2016. Written by more than 450 scientists from around the world, the study constitutes the definitive—and, honestly, somewhat dry—account of the year in weather and climate. The report describes facts and summarizes trends; it does not dive into synthesis. But its point is unmistakable: Nearly everywhere that its authors look—at the poles, in the tropics, and beneath the ocean’s surface—they find symptoms of human-caused climate change."
(Image credit: The Atlantic)
 

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"It’s unambiguous and definitive. These five charts prove that the planet is heating up."
"The warming of the Earth’s climate is indisputable. A new international climate change report, prepared by 450 scientists from more than 60 countries, has published trends from thousands of data sets that — across the board — present a clear-cut picture of a warming world. Led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the report revealed that heat-trapping gases, global temperatures, ocean heat content, and sea levels reached record or near-record highs in 2016. It is the 27th version of the report, titled State of the Climate in 2016, and is being published as a special 280-page supplement in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. NOAA released the report documenting irrefutable evidence of global warming, even as President Trump and high-level members of his administration have expressed skepticism about the phenomenon, especially the human role. Five indicators from the report, in particular, offer a particularly compelling illustration of the changing composition of the Earth’s atmosphere and the warming that has occurred in lockstep."
(2016 temperature difference from normal. (NOAA))

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"A large wildfire has been burning in Greenland for more than a week, and wait, what?!?"
If shrubbery and peatlands catch on fire on a sparsely populated island that's synonymous with snow and ice, will anyone notice? The answer, thanks to satellite monitoring, is an unequivocal "yes." During the past several days, scientists have been keeping close tabs on an unusually large wildfire in southwest Greenland, about 90 miles northeast of the town of Sisimiut. This is one of at least two fires currently burning in Greenland. While fires are not unheard of along the ice-free edges of the island, the large one near Sisimiut is noteworthy for its size and duration, scientists say. Wildfires in Greenland are outpacing past years in terms of the number of satellite-detected incidents. The current fire is the largest wildfire spotted in Greenland since a NASA satellite instrument was turned on in 2002. 
(Satellite image of the Greenland wildfire near the town of Sisimiut, on Aug. 3, 2017.)
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"Italian wine harvest season 2017 has early arrival due to extreme weather"
"Struck by harsh weather conditions, Italy expects a drop in wine volumes but local vintners remain confident in the quality of their harvests. For winemakers, the essence of their millennia-old craft lies in a single event that takes place once a year: crush season. Aptly named ‘crush’, which refers to the process when wine grapes are picked, crushed and fermented, it is basically the wine harvesting stage. It is also directly instrumental to the birth of an exquisite wine. This year, seasoned Italian winemakers whose calendars have been specially marked for this ritual in October are going to have to reschedule. For the first time in 10 years, crush season has arrived early to vineyards of the world’s biggest wine producer. The anomalous timing can be credited to the extreme weather conditions that the European country has seen recently. Having forged through spring frosts and hailstorms, Italy is now experiencing an intense heatwave — and this, after months under a dry spell. The effects of the harsh climate are hardly unnoticeable; all across the country, harvest start dates have arrived around 10 days earlier on average. Grapes have been ripening in the regions of Sicilyand Piedmont as early as last month, breaking the tradition of the annual Italian harvest kicking off up north, at the Faccoli family winery in Franciacorta."
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"Resettling the First American ‘Climate Refugees’"
"In January, the Department of Housing and Urban Developmentannounced grants totaling $1 billion in 13 states to help communities adapt to climate change, by building stronger levees, dams and drainage systems. One of those grants, $48 million for Isle de Jean Charles, is something new: the first allocation of federal tax dollars to move an entire community struggling with the impacts of climate change. The divisions the effort has exposed and the logistical and moral dilemmas it has presented point up in microcosm the massive problems the world could face in the coming decades as it confronts a new category of displaced people who have become known as climate refugees."
(Amiya Brunet, 3, on the bridge that leads to her home, which fills with up to a foot of mud during storms. Her parents, Keith Brunet and Keisha McGehee, would like to leave the island. Credit Josh Haner/The New York Times)
 

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
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