86 F. maximum temperature on August 16, 2016.
August 17, 1946: A tornado kills 11 people in the Mankato area around 6:52PM. A 27-ton road grader is hurled about 100 feet. Another tornado an hour later destroys downtown Wells.
Official Winter Outlook: "Colder With Some Snow"
We want so badly to know the future. Which leaves us vulnerable to people and organizations that profit from the unknowable: Pentagon think tanks, get-rich-quick investment scams, and long-range weather guessers.
Full disclosure: I do have a copy of the Farmers' Almanac. It's a curiosity; fun to flip through - great stories and interesting observations. But there's no real evidence they can predict winter weather months in advance.
The forecast for the upcoming winter? "Cold, moderate snowfall. Not as harsh as usual." Harsh? Lately, 1 in 4 winters have been old-fashioned Minnesota butt-kickers. A 4-8 month outlook is like fantasy football, for weather. Buyer beware. The 7-Day Outlook is challenging enough.
Your drip-dries are drooping after last night's soaking. Showers begin to taper today, but a few more T-storms bubble up tomorrow. Mercifully we get a break this weekend with sunshine and mid-80s (insert applause here) before more T-storms rumble into town Monday. The ECMWF model suggests a significant risk of clouds/rain for Monday's eclipse.
What can possibly go wrong?
* Details on yesterday's tornadoes and excessive 3-4" rains below...
Touchdown. Here is the tornado that spun up around Nicollet shortly after 5 PM yesterday, one of as many as 4-6 tornadoes that formed late yesterday along an active frontal boundary moving from south to north. Instability was marginal, but moisture and low-level wind shear was sufficient to spin up a series of tornadoes. Unusual for mid-August but hardly unprecedented.
Tornado Reports. The list above is a bit misleading; some of these were the same tornado, observed from different locations. NOAA SPC will be updating the list as the day goes on and more information comes in.
Image credit: "Capital Weather Gang’s Angela Fritz explains what could happen to your eyes if you were to watch the Aug. 21 eclipse without special sunglasses and how to spot the ones that work." (Claritza Jimenez, Daron Taylor, Angela Fritz/The Washington Post)
Interactive Eclipse Map. NOAA NCEI has a good site with eclipse details and average cloud cover on August 21: "Our
interactive map provides greater detail about viewing the eclipse
across the nation. The map lists a “viewable” percentage for each
reporting location. The viewable percentage represents the likelihood of
skies being clear enough for the eclipse to be visible. A higher
percentage means a viewer is more likely to have a view unobstructed by
clouds. Also, a bar chart shows the probabilities for five types of
cloud cover: clear (no clouds), few, scattered, broken, and overcast.
Percentages are derived from averages of each type of cloud cover..."
Twin Cities Solar Eclipse: Path, Time, Duration and Weather. Here's an excerpt from Patch.com: "The total phase of this solar eclipse will not be visible in Minnesota, but it can be observed here as a partial solar eclipse, according to timeanddate.com. The Moon will cover a large portion of the Sun, and it will be an amazing sight regardless.
Here's when it will happen in the Twin Cities:
What It Takes to Chase the Total Eclipse From Coast to Coast. CNET.com provides interesting perspective: "...According to Xavier Jubier's very useful total eclipse map,
the shadow will be moving fastest when it hits the coast of Oregon in
the morning at a speed of over 2,400 miles per hour (3,862 km/h). At
that velocity, your only hope of keeping up with the eclipse would be a
flight in one of world's fastest fighter jets. Because of the geometry
of the Earth's surface, the eclipse shadow moves faster at the start and
end of its path and at its slowest in the middle. That means that near
the point of greatest eclipse in Kentucky, it will "slow down" to a mere
1,448 mph (2,330 km/h), which is just a little bit faster than the top
speed of the commercial Concorde jet..."
Photo credit: "A Concorde jet like this one once chased a solar eclipse for over an hour in 1973." Stephen Shankland/CNET.
Farmer's Almanac Outlook for Winter of 2018. Suspend your disbelief; let's light a candle and look out 4-8 months into the future! Good luck with that. Hey, I like to check out the winter outlook as much as anyone else, but please don't refer to this as a forecast or even a trend. There's no peer-reviewed science explaining the methodology involved, and the track record isn't particularly good. But it's fun to look at. Kind of like fantasy football - for weather: Here's an excerpt of a summary from Farmers' Almanac: "...Cold conditions are back! According to the Farmers’ Almanac’s 200-year-old formula, this winter is expected to be a bit more “normal” as far as the temperatures are concerned, especially in the eastern and central parts of the country–chiefly those areas to the east of the Rocky Mountains–with many locations experiencing above-normal precipitation...Break out the space heaters, umbrellas, and warm socks, because the Southeast will see below normal winter temperatures with an unseasonable chill reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast, with above-average precipitation. From the Great Lakes into the Northeast, snowier-than-normal conditions are expected. We can hear the skiers, boarders, and snowmobilers cheering from here!..."
Here's when it will happen in the Twin Cities:
- Starts: Aug. 21 at 11:43 a.m.
- Maximum point in Minneapolis: Aug. 21 at 1:06 p.m.
- Ends: Aug. 21, 2017 at 2:29 p.m.
Photo credit: "A Concorde jet like this one once chased a solar eclipse for over an hour in 1973." Stephen Shankland/CNET.
Farmer's Almanac Outlook for Winter of 2018. Suspend your disbelief; let's light a candle and look out 4-8 months into the future! Good luck with that. Hey, I like to check out the winter outlook as much as anyone else, but please don't refer to this as a forecast or even a trend. There's no peer-reviewed science explaining the methodology involved, and the track record isn't particularly good. But it's fun to look at. Kind of like fantasy football - for weather: Here's an excerpt of a summary from Farmers' Almanac: "...Cold conditions are back! According to the Farmers’ Almanac’s 200-year-old formula, this winter is expected to be a bit more “normal” as far as the temperatures are concerned, especially in the eastern and central parts of the country–chiefly those areas to the east of the Rocky Mountains–with many locations experiencing above-normal precipitation...Break out the space heaters, umbrellas, and warm socks, because the Southeast will see below normal winter temperatures with an unseasonable chill reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast, with above-average precipitation. From the Great Lakes into the Northeast, snowier-than-normal conditions are expected. We can hear the skiers, boarders, and snowmobilers cheering from here!..."
Map credit: "A global map of the June 2017 LOTI (land-ocean temperature index) anomaly, relative to the 1951-1980 June average."
3 Tornadoes in 3 States, But No Warnings. What Happened? A story at USA TODAY caught my eye: "One
tornado tossed a car like a toy, another reduced buildings to rubble, a
third shredded trees to splinters. Three recent tornadoes hit three
different states — New York, Oklahoma, and Maryland — yet no tornado
warnings were issued before any of the twisters touched down. Do we
have a problem? The National Weather Service, the federal agency that
issues tornado warnings, says no. "There's no headline here," said Greg
Schoor, acting severe weather program leader for the weather service,
noting that they were all separate, unrelated events. "They were three
examples of low-end tornadoes, and are not representative of what's
going on nationally," he said, referring to how well the agency does
with tornado warnings overall..."
Photo credit: "A
tornado that swept through Tulsa, Oklahoma on Sunday injured at least
30 people, and severely damaged many businesses near the city's midtown.
(August 7)." AP.
It's Not Your Imagination: Minnesota Trending Wetter
Is this a good time to remind you that the last 12 months have been the
wettest on record? Twin Cities statistics go back to 1837. 40.72 inches
of rain fell from August 2016 to July 2017. That's well above the
latest 30-year average for annual MSP rainfall of 31 inches. Which is 20
percent wetter than the 1941-1970 rainfall average of 26 inches. Dr.
Mark Seeley shared these records with me, underscoring our new reality:
it's trending wetter over time. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water
vapor, fueling heavier rains and warm season T-storms. That's not a
climate model - that's staring out at the water in a rain gauge.
Graphic credit: "People and pets bitten by fleas from dead animals are at risk for contracting plague, health officials say. Cats can become very ill and directly infect humans by coughing infectious droplets into the air. Dogs are less likely to get sick, but they can carry fleas into the home." (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).
Beer Is The Greenest Beverage. I'll drink to that. Nexus Media has the story: "...Some beer makers have found creative ways to conserve resources. In Hawaii, where freshwater supplies are limited, Kona Brewing uses condensation collected
from its air conditioner to water the habaneros and chives used in its
small-batch beers. In Alaska, dairy farms are hard to come by, so
instead of selling its used malt as cattle feed, Alaskan Brewing uses its spent grain to fuel a steam boiler. Magnolia Brewing and 21st Amendment in San Francisco, by contrast, send their leftovers to ReGrained,
a startup that turns old malt into beer-themed snack bars. Since even
the most efficient breweries generate a certain amount of waste and
pollution, some beer makers have sought ways to compensate. Last year, Brooklyn Brewery worked with the Arbor Day Foundation
to plant trees across hundreds of acres of the Mississippi Alluvial
Valley. The trees will soak up carbon dioxide, offsetting pollution
generated by the brewery’s Williamsburg, Brooklyn operation..."
Photo credit: "Solar panels at Sierra Nevada’s California facility." Source: Sierra Nevada
Why 88,000 American Jobs in Solar Energy Are At Risk. TheHill has details: "...Overall job growth in the solar industry is one of the brightest spots in the economy — and smart job growth policy should account for this matured market. Earlier this month, my organization CRES Forum, held a panel discussion to get into the weeds and understand exactly what jobs in the solar industry look like, how the U.S. solar industry is linked to the global economy and why the case before the commission matters. We learned that in 2016, there were over 260,000 jobs in the U.S. solar industry. One in every 50 new jobs created was in the industry, which is growing at 12 times the rate the rest of the economy. And growth in the solar industry is estimated to eventually lead to one million new jobs created across the supply chain through 2050..."
File image: Electrek.
Photo credit: "A cashier, left, checks out items as a customer shops during the grand opening of the Whole Foods supermarket in Newark, New Jersey." Photograph: Julio Cortez/AP
Photo credit: Alejandro Alvarez/News2Share via Reuters.
Illustration credit: Jasu Hu.
Map credit: Highcharts.com.
TODAY: Showers slowly taper, breezy, cool and damp. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 71
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with fog developing. Low: 60
FRIDAY: Early fog, few PM T-storms bubble up. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 78
SATURDAY: Partly sunny, better outdoor day. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 82
SUNDAY: Hazy sun, feels like summer again. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 66. High: 85
MONDAY: More clouds, few T-storms around. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 68. High: 83
TUESDAY: Damp start, then slow clearing. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 65. High: 81
WEDNESDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 80
Climate Stories...
Does Climate Change Cause Extreme Weather Events? A warmer climate correlates with hotter heat waves, more intense rainfall and deeper, more severe drought - but a causal connection with other forms of extreme weather isn't always possible. Here's an excerpt from Smithsonian.com: "...Thanks to advances in supercomputing and pooling hundreds of climate models developed by researchers across the world, they are also more statistically confident than ever in saying that intense storms, droughts and record-breaking heat waves are occurring with increased frequency because of humans. “Ten years ago we wouldn’t have been able to do so,” says Ken Kunkel, a climate scientist at North Carolina State University who also works with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But teasing apart individual weather events is harder. The planet’s history is dotted with unexpected, prolonged heat waves and sudden damaging storms far before humans began pumping out greenhouse gases. “The big challenge is that these kind of extreme events have always happened,” says Kunkel, whose work focuses on heavy storms that cause considerable damage in the U.S. But, he says, “Can you say, ‘This event was caused by global warming? No...'”
File image: "A
NASA image of Hurricane Sandy moving along the United States' East
Coast. Extreme weather events like this are becoming more frequent, but
scientists still face challenges when attributing any one storm to
climate change." (NASA / Alamy)
Trump Has Broad Power to Block Climate Change Report. ProPublica has details: "...In
many ways, the 669-page “Climate Science Special Report” is utterly
unremarkable. It is a review of existing science that concludes human
activities are largely responsible for the warming of the planet.
Worsening climatic and coastal impacts are almost inevitable unless the
world’s industrial nations significantly reduce emissions of greenhouse
gases. Its contents came as no surprise to foes or supporters of polices
aimed at cutting climate-warming emissions. Earlier drafts, with the
same basic conclusions as those in the submitted document, had been publicly posted and in wide review
since January. What makes the report significant now is the challenge
it poses to a White House that has been moving aggressively to reverse
the Obama administration’s policies and rules on climate change. So far, the Trump administration has begun withdrawing the U.S. from the 2015 Paris Agreement, cut relevant environmental agency budgets and removed from some government websites language describing the risks of unabated global warming..."
Case for Climate Change Grows Ever Stronger. Here's the intro of an Op-Ed from the Editorial Board at USA TODAY: "Could
proof grow any more powerful that humanity is responsible for a
dangerously warming planet? Scientists studying Earth's atmosphere and
oceans are finding ever more troubling evidence. Last year was the
hottest on record, according to a report late last week from the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The report, by more
than 450 scientists from 60 nations,
also found that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and global sea
levels are at their highest levels on record. Just as troubling were
draft findings destined for the quadrennial National Climate Assessment.
Scientists from 13 federal agencies found that a rapid rise in
temperatures since the 1980s in the United States represents the warmest period in 1,500 years..."
138 Dormant Volcanoes Under Antarctica's Ice. A story at Quartz made me do a double-take: "...The big question is: how active are these volcanoes? That is something we need to determine as quickly as possible,” Robert Bingham, one of the author’s of the paper told The Guardian. “Anything that causes the melting of ice—which an eruption certainly would—is likely to speed up the flow of ice into the sea.” The connection could work the other way around too, according to Bill McGuire, author of Waking the Giant: How a changing climate triggers earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes. Looking at historical records, McGuire said in a previous interview that melting ice caps could cause the Earth’s top layer to “bounce back” and trigger volcanoes..."
Photo credit: "Hidden monsters." (Reuters/Mark Baker).
Explaining the Lack of Rain in Spain (and Italy). The Economist looks at larger forces driving a hotter, drier climate for the Mediterranean: "...Nor, surprisingly, have scientists agreed on whether the intensity and frequency of droughts is increasing in Europe. Against a background of global warming, that might seem inevitable. But since evaporation (from sea, lakes and rivers) and evapotranspiration (from the land) lead to increased rainfall, higher temperatures do not necessarily cause more droughts. Problems do arise if the offsetting rainfall is unevenly distributed—as seems to be the case in Europe. Evidence has mounted over the past 30-odd years of a shift towards wetter winters in northern Europe and, says Mr Vogt, of “drier conditions in the Mediterranean, especially in spring and summer, the critical times of year for drought”. Gregor Gregoric, who co-ordinates the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe, says that since the 1980s that region has suffered a significant drought on average every five years. Even his lush Slovenian homeland has been hit..." (Photo credit: EPA).
The Year Trump Was Elected Was So Hot, It Was 1-in-a-Million. The Guardian explains the odds: "2014, 2015, and 2016 each broke the global temperature record. A new study led by climate scientist Michael Mann just published in Geophysical Research Letters used climate model simulations to examine the odds that these records would have been set in a world with and without human-caused global warming. In model simulations without a human climate influence, the authors concluded:
- There’s a one-in-a-million chance that 2014, 2015, and 2016 would each have been as hot as they were if only natural factors were at play.
- There’s a one-in-10,000 chance that 2014, 2015, and 2016 would all have been record-breaking hot years.
- There’s a less than 0.5% chance of three consecutive record-breaking years happening at any time since 2000..."
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