Paul's Latest Twin Cities Column

March 30, 2009

* "Plowable" snowfall is imminent, around 6" for the Twin Cities area by late Tues.
* Winter Storm Warning north/west of the metro area
* 1-3" expected by morning, heaviest snow falls morning/midday hours
* Blizzard Warning for far west central MN, winds over 40 mph with whiteout conditions expected Tuesday, travel conditions worsen the farther north/west you drive away from St. Cloud
* Most of the new snow should be gone by late-week, sun now as high in the sky as it was in mid September



Paul's Latest Twin Cities Weather Column

(This was for March 30)

"Out Like a Polar Bear"

Forget the whole lamb/lion thing. At least in the Twin Cities area March is definitely going out like a polar bear, or maybe a rabid penguin. Last week's 2.7" of rain would have translated into 2-3 FEET of snow, had it been a few degrees colder. We dodged a wintry bullet last week, but no such luck tomorrow. The computer models all pretty much agree that the atmosphere over much of central and eastern MN will be cold enough for mostly snow. The latest WRF and NAM models print out roughly 1" of liquid precipitation. Assuming a 1:10 ratio, 1" of rain = 10" of snow (at about 30 degrees) that would mean close to 10-12"! I think the final amount will be a little less, in the 6" range, as a little ice mixes in during the morning hours. But make no mistake about it: when you wake up Tuesday morning, stumble out of bed and peek behind the curtain you may get a rude awakening: snow falling at the rate of 1-2" an hour! I think the heaviest snow will fall from breakfast through midday, then slowly taper off to light snow and flurries later in the day tomorrow. The farther north/west you travel tomorrow the heavier the snow, and the stronger the winds - parts of western MN are under a Blizzard Watch, expecting 35-45 mph winds and visibility near zero at times on the backside of this intensifying storm. Enough warm air will surge north for mostly rain/ice in Rochester, where a puny 1-3" of slush may accumulate. North of the metro area, near Cambridge and Princeton, I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear of some 10"+ amounts by the time the flurries wind down Wednesday.

Look at the bright side: the sun is now as high in the sky as it was back in mid September. That high sun angle means any new snow in your yard won't stick around for long, it's not like a snowstorm in January. Most of the snow should be gone by the weekend, so if you like snow, fire up the sled, wax up the skis one more time. We've had 44" of snow so far this winter season, that's below average, but tomorrow's storm should bring us above 50". The 7-Day shows highs reaching the low 40s toward the end of the week, so get ready for a slushy, sloppy, gurgly mess. A shoe-mangling thaw is likely within 72 hours.