Paul's Latest Twin Cities Column

William Gray from CSU released his hurricane forecast today:

Here are the numbers:

"Information obtained through March 2009 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have about as much activity as the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2009 will have about 6 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 12 named storms (average is 9.6), 55 named storm days (average is 49.1), 25 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 2 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 5 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 105 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2009 to be approximately 105 percent of the long-term average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast from early December."

Weather Headlines

* Computer models: no precipitation for the next 10 days.

* Weak clipper whips up clouds today, possible flurry or sprinkle, nothing of substance expected.

* Lack of heavy rain/snow should help the flood situation in the Red River Valley, second crest 2 weeks away.

* Temperatures moderate into the mid 50s by the weekend (which should stay dry).

* April: about 5 degrees cooler than average. Snow Depth has gone from 6" (April 1) to 0" (today).

* Growing chance of rain toward the end of next week.

Paul's Column

I got nothing. I hope my old English teacher doesn't read this - very bad use of words. But I'm making a point. the forecast for St. Cloud and all of central Minnesota is delightfully dull, cool, quiet and uneventful. That's good news for construction crews, anyone anxious to clean up the yard, open up the cabin - but it may wind up being a God-send for residents living along the Red River. The Fargo/Moorhead area is not out of the woods, far from it, but every day that passes without heavy rain/snow or a rapid warming trend means a slightly reduced risk of disaster. The worst-case scenario? Heavy rain, temperatures in the 50s, accelerating the snow melt. We don't see that happening - although the long-range guidance is hinting at a period of rain the last few days of next week. Computers are also hinting - hinting (!) at highs near 60 by Sunday, again the following weekend, so temperatures are headed in the right direction, no question.

Today will be a bit grayer as a weak Alberta clipper spreads mid and high level clouds across the state. The chance of a stray flurry or sprinkle will increase if you're driving northeast, toward Grand Rapids or the Duluth area, but right now we can't get excited about precipitation chances. Clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than they would be otherwise, about 5 degrees below the (average high) of 50.

It still looks like a fine weekend is on tap for central Minnesota, highs in the mid 50s both days, generous amounts of sunshine, light winds - Saturday rain coming no farther north than Des Moines. A few (optimistic) bank thermometers (getting direct sunlight) may register 60 by Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind to be considered accurate a thermometer should be in the shade, preferably on the north side of the building. You want to take the AIR temperature, not the sun temperature.

So there you have it: Minnesota meteorologists at a wondrous - and rare - loss for words. It's rare to be bored tracking weather across central Minnesota. Thank an "Omega Block", storms anchored over either coast, a ridge of high pressure draped over the Plains, a huge area of dry, sinking, drying air. That bodes well for the next few days, and a weekend that may spark a mild outbreak of spring fever. Finally.