Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Paul's Latest Twin Cities Column

Paul's Column

I could get accustomed to this. I'm getting ready for a major trade show (NAB) out in Las Vegas, starting April 19. My latest company, WeatherNation, is going to be exhibiting out there, trying to find a few more visionary clients like MinnPost and Conservation Minnesota to sign up for our service. If you've never worked a trade show you don't know what you're missing. Count your blessings. People ask, "how hard can it be just standing there TALKING for 8-10 hours?" The answer: it's a collosal pain in the Doppler. It's not like chatting with co-workers, it's like starring in a 10 hour play. You're "on" for the entire period, saying the same thing, trying not to go mad, trying to pick out the tire-kickers from the serious leads. But enough about my problems & challenges. How are you? Enjoying this quiet spell? I am, that's for sure. When you consider we could be "enjoying" blizzards, floods, tornadoes and everything in between I don't take this April Intermission for granted.

The weather map is dominated by a persistent ridge of high pressure temporarily anchored over the Plains states, stormy bookends on both coasts of the U.S. causing wet-weather trouble. The Rockies west of Denver may wind up with 6-12", perfect for a little spring skiing at Breckenridge and Aspen. High pressure should be strong and dominant enough to cause the main jet stream, the superhighway for storms, to take a southerly detour, weekend rain coming no closer than about Des Moines. Sunshine should be the rule, not the exception, almost every day through the middle of next week. Remarkable. Especially this time of year. Every once in a great while the atmosphere goes into a "holding pattern" with very little change from day to day. That's when a monkey could forecast the weather (and many have tried!) As we lose more snow the sun's energy can go into heating up the air, and by the weekend we should be enjoying highs in the mid to upper 50s, nighttime lows flirting with freezing. Considering the normal high is 53, that isn't too shabby at all.

At some point this stalled pattern will break down; it looks like we may see more rain toward the end of next week (with daytime highs approaching 60). Generally you need a dew point of at least 50 or 55 to get thunder and lightning - we could theoretically be warm and moist enough for a few spring showers and thunderstorms by the very end of next week. Stating the obvious (which I've become quite good at over the years) any heavy rain falling on mostly-frozen ground will heighten the flood risk facing the Red River Valley. Folks living up in Moorhead and Fargo are by no means out of the woods just yet - it remains to be seen how high the Red River rises for crest #2, but remember, the river forecasters at the National Weather Service in Chanhassen insist there's a 75% probability of a crest above 41', which would be higher than the last crest of 40.8' on March 28. People up there are holding their breath, hoping for the best, some expecting the worst. With any luck rains falling on the Red River Valley next weekend will be light and spotty, and a worst-case scenario will be avoided. They've come this far with only sporadic flooding and damage, it would be a shame if the second crest lapped over the levee system.

Enjoy the meteorological holiday, the break from "weather" anytime soon. If you're a professional procrastinator you just ran out of excuses. Yes, I can look forward to cleaning out the garage this weekend. I can hardly wait. My weather spotter, Sharon Bertrand who lives in Mendota Heights, reported wren sightings at her home this morning. Can spring be far behind? Place your bets!

* Weather for Thursday evening's baseball games: mostly clear, gametime temperature of 51, should be closer to 43 by the end of the 9th inning, so take a heavy jacket.

* Easter morning wake-up temperature: 35 (there may be a little frost on some of those Easter Eggs!)

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