Sunday, July 11, 2010

Long Range Outlook: More Extreme Heatwaves

How is it Monday already? What happened - where did the weekend go? Don't you wish you could slow down time on Saturdays and Sundays, just hit "pause" on the old remote control and replay every minute (when it's not raining cats, dogs and canaries). At least the sun was out most of the weekend, respectable 80s, noticeable humidity levels, but nothing outrageous. It was a classic summer weekend across Minnesota, more sun than thunder, plenty of quality time to romp on the lake and make some summer memories.

Stormy Wednesday. Models print out anywhere frm .4 to over 1.5" of rain Wednesday. Dry weather persists today and most of Tuesday, but batten down the hatches around midweek.

Yesterday's storms are long gone, a puff of slightly cooler, drier Canadian air sweeping the storms towards Chicago - you'll feel a welcome drop in humidity today with highs holding in the 70s across most of Minnesota. Blue sky lingers into much of Tuesday as temperatures warm a few degrees, back up to "normal". The next chance of showers and t-storms comes Wednesday, more storms and potential downpours before we dry out again Thursday and much of Friday. These fronts are spaced out every 2-3 days, which means (right on schedule) more scattered T-storms over the weekend, the best chance Saturday night. The good news: weather systems are progressive (ie, they're moving along at 15-25 mph, no signs of stalling out, prolonging the rain for most of the weekend). It's early, but right now y hunch is that next weekend will be vaguely similar to this past weekend, plenty of warm sun interrupted by a few hours of showers and T-storms.

Sticky Saturday. I can't help myself - already scanning the maps, pondering next weekend's weather. How the heck is it already MID summer? The GFS model is hinting at a warm, humid, southerly wind flow with T-storms rumbling into far western MN late Saturday, possibly reaching central and eastern MN Saturday night. Most of the weekend will probably be dry, but plan on dodging more scattered T-storms. With any luck most of the rain will come Saturday night.

I'm just back from out east (gave a speech about my entrepreneurial misadventures at Penn State's 75th anniversary of their meteorology program). Somewhere between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5 meteorologists in the USA is a Penn State grad - not sure what's in the water in central Pennsylvania that makes otherwise sane people want to tackle the vagaries of the weather, but I was happy to be there, encouraging others to take the plunge and consider starting their own companies. That old saying, "everyone has at least one book in them?" I firmly believe that just about everyone has at least one company in them. The one thing most people lack? Confidence. The beauty of today (vs. 30 years ago) is the rise of the Internet, the ability to set up a "stealth" company on the side, keep your day job until/unless your little hobby on the side takes off and bears fruit. With the 'net it's never been easier to take an idea, fine-tune it, and turn it into a business. If you're pondering doing just that, good luck. You may surprise yourself what you're capable of. Don't listen to the naysayers. If you're flexible, adaptable, and most of all - tenacious - you can find a way to turn your hobby, your passion, into a business. There's nothing more exhilarating than turning a concept into a company. You'll need people who compliment your skills, smart people with can-do mindsets. They're out there, in fact that's one (of many) reasons why I stayed in Minnesota. There are a lot of smart, ambitious (honest) people out there who just need some direction, a vision.

Enjoy what should turn out to be a memorable Monday, weatherwise. Soak it up, because chances are all be making a mad dash in about 40-48 hours as the next (noisy) line of weather moves through these parts...




At The End Of The Rainbow... I don't think this image was Photoshopped. Yes, it's official. At the end of the rainbow is a bright blue outhouse. Spread the news.

Cars + Kids + Heat = Trouble. Don't even think about leaving a child in a hot car this time of year, even for a few seconds. The statistics are frightening - under a hot, summer sun the interior of a car can heat up to 120 F or higher in only a few minutes - more details on the threat posed by leaving kids in hot cars is here.

Worse Than Texting-While-Driving? Yesterday I was paging through one of those "Skymall" magazines on the Delta flight, and I came across this product. I think I let out a little scream (other passengers were staring) but I honestly couldn't help myself. Can you imagine driving behind this gal as she checks her e-mail from the front of her massive Suburban? My favorite part of the photo - the little printer. How is this even legal? God help us all.


Sunday Almanac. A slightly cooler, drier front ignited more storms, with the heaviest rains observed over southern MN (.47" at Rochester and .74" at Redwood Falls). St. Cloud picked up only a trace of rain with a pleasant high of 83. Farther down I-94 .17" fell on the Twin Cities, International Falls only reached a high of 73 with .12" of rain.

Squall Line. Flying into MSP from BWI (Baltimore) Sunday afternoon we flew around a building line of cumulonimbus, thunderstorms flaring up just south/east of the Twin Cities. These towering thunderheads went on to spark 1" diameter hail near Rochester around the dinner hour.

8th Warmest June on Record. NOAA has all the details here.

Hot Weather in a Warming Climate. Is it "weather" or "climate"? Some interesting thoughts and observations here.

Study: U.S. To Fell More Heat, More Often In Coming Years. Although no one heatwave, storm or other weather event can be directly linked to climate change, the tempo and frequency of these events is forecast to increase in a warmer world. The story is here.

Study: Long Heatwaves Could Be Common in U.S. by 2039. If climate change theory is correct, then the kind of long-lasting 100-degree heat that gripped much of the northeast last week may become more commonplace in the years ahead. The story is here.


Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

Today: Beautiful. Bright sun, a welcome drop in humidity. Winds: E 8-13. High: 79

Monday night: Mostly clear and comfortable. Low: 62

Tuesday: Plenty of sun, warming up again. High: 84

Wednesday: Unsettled with T-storms likely, locally heavy rain possible. High: 82

Thursday: A mix of clouds and sun, seasonably warm. High: 86

Friday: Hot sun, sticky. High: near 90

Saturday: Hazy sun much of the day, still plenty warm. A few T-storms possible late Saturday, likely Saturday night. High: 89

Sunday: Partly sunny, a passing T-storm possible (mainly far southern MN and WI). Most of the day will probably be dry. High: 85

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