Friday Frostbite (thaw within 48 hours)

* Bitter Friday, morning wind chills in the -5 to -15 F. range.

* No weekend storms brewing, getting home should be relatively easy.

* Thaw likely Sunday, mid 30s likely, 40 not out of the question close to home.

* Temperatures cool down next week - not as cold as this latest Arctic outbreak.

* Next chance of accumulating snow: next Friday/Saturday, could be plowable south of the MN River - a few inches can't be ruled out in the Twin Cities late next week, roughly 1 week from today.

A Rough Way To Wake Up. I think I'm going to sleep in 'til the crack of noon - not looking forward to retreiving the newspaper this morning. Ugh. NWS models are predicting a 7am wind chill of -8 in the Twin Cities, -11 at St. Cloud, readings closer to -20 over northern Minnesota. Welcome to January.

A Bitter Thanksgiving. Misery loves company - it helps to know that most of America is shivering through one of the coldest Thanksgiving holidays in 25 years. The high of 15 in the Twin Cities was, in fact, the coldest Thanksgiving "high" (maximum temperature sounds better) since 1985, when the high was a brisk 11 above zero. The good news: the pain will be relatively brief - expect dripping icicles and a badly-needed thaw by Sunday. Map courtesy of Ham Weather.

Temperature Roller Coaster. It's hard to believe, but in a little over 48 hours roads will be wet, temperatures clawing above the freezing mark - 40 is not out of the question Sunday afternoon. A cool-down is likely next week, although not as frigid as Thursday was.

Next Snow Storm? The GFS model is hinting at a few inches of snow for the southern third of Minnesota late Friday into Saturday morning - the best chance of a "plowable" amount south of the MN River. Too early to get specific about timing or amounts - just know that if you're traveling late in the week there may be some complications. Why do I think we're going to have a very active winter season? The writing is on the wall (or maps). No El Nino to save us this winter.

 

Tornado Derails Outback Freight Train. Spring is about to turn into summer "Down Under" - reports of a small but intense tornado in the outback region of South Australia, winds strong enough to knock 17 cars off the tracks. Details here.

 

A Twitter News Network? Do you tweet on a regular basis? Would you watch a continuous stream of tweets on a 24/7 news channel? Here is an excerpt from from an article in Reuters and Mediabistro: "A Twitter news network would not necessarily be run by Twitter itself but would be in partnership with several existing news organizations, and would be open, Stone said.“From the very beginning this has seemed almost as if it’s a news wire coming from everywhere around the world,” he told Reuters Television on the sidelines of the Silicon Valley Comes to Oxford technology event.“I think a Twitter News Service would be something that would be very open and shared with many different news organizations around the world.”

Numb and Number. Thursday's high was a "character-building" 15 in the Twin Cities, but only 10 at St. Cloud and 9 at Alexandria - the wind made it feel like 0 to -10 F. much of the day as winds gusted over 30 mph.


Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Numbing sun, risk of shopping. Winds: W 10-20. High: near 20 (wind chills range from -15 early to near 0 by mid afternoon).

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, not quite as bitter. Low: 13

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, storm-free. High: 29

SUNDAY: Clouds increase, dripping icicles - wet roads for getting home. High: 34

MONDAY: Coating of flurries possible?  High: 33

TUESDAY: Clouds, leftover flakes. High: 26

WEDNESDAY: Intervals of sun, chilly. High: 25

THURSDAY: Clouds increase, still quiet. High: 29

* Accumulating snow is possible from Friday PM into Saturday AM hours - best chance of a few inches coming over the southern third of Minnesota.

Well Preserved

When I tell people I'm a Minnesotan they pause, shake their head, eyes wide with wonder. "How do you live up there?" Maybe I'm rationalizing, but I tell people that our winters are (usually) more bark then bite. Less than half a dozen winter days, on average, are painful and potentially dangerous. And our coldest days tend to be sunny, Arctic air tends to be cold and dry. The truth: if you're dressed for the weather and physically active the risk of frostbite is small.

Infants and the elderly are vulnerable to "hypothermia", a slow, insidious drop in body temperature that can be fatal if not caught in time. Check in on older friends and neighbors this morning; it will feel like -20 out there at times.

The silver lining: our Yukon vacation will be brief. The sun stays out for today's shopping (or napping) adventure, no big storms between now and your trip home Sunday. You'll be amazed how good freezing feels. The next chance of accumulating snow? Late Friday and Saturday.

Unlike El Nino years, which tend to favor mild winters, La Nina winters are fickle. The last 3 have trended warmer (and snowier for much of the USA). We're due for a real winter. I say that every year. Duh.

 Climate Change Debate Continues For Scientists, Politicians, New Media. Click here to read a good summary of the current impasse in climate science in the United States. Quoting from the Voice of America article, "The climate change topic has become polarized between those who believe in the general consensus that global warming is occurring and that it is largely caused by humans burning fossil fuels and those who either reject the whole notion or disagree with parts of the consensus. At times it has taken on religious tones, with those who are believers describing those who question as "deniers," the equivalent of heretics. The U.S. news media have also been caught up in this debate with most mainstream news outlets concentrating on the threat of global warming, while conservative media focus on scientific and political skeptics. The Los Angeles Times reported earlier this month that the American Geophysical Union was starting what it called "a campaign to push back against congressional conservatives…"

 Global Warming Skeptics Ascend In Congress. From a Business Week article, "I am vindicated," says Republican Senator James M. Inhofe of Oklahoma, who was ridiculed by environmentalists in 2003 when he declared that man-made global warming was the "greatest hoax ever perpetuated on the American people."He has reason to crow: His party's sweep of the midterm elections will bring into office almost four dozen new lawmakers (11 senators and at least 36 House members) who share his skepticism about climate change, according to ThinkProgress, an arm of the Center for American Progress Action Fund, a Washington research group allied with Democrats. They join a smaller group of Republican incumbents, some of whom will assume powerful committee positions in January, who also reject that global warming is an immediate threat.

Paul Douglas Foundation. If your company is looking for a speaker for an upcoming presentation click here for more information. Douglas has spoken to hundreds of organizations in recent years, on topics ranging from technology to leadership & entrepreneurial thinking to the impact of climate change on Minnesota. Book your date now for 2011.