47 F. average high for March 28
52 F. high temperature on March 28, 2010.
2" snow on the ground at MSP as of Monday evening.
84.7" snow so far this winter (5th snowiest winter on record).
.3" additional snow required for this to be the 4th snowiest winter since 1891.
18z computer runs hinting at a "few inches" of slushy snow by Thursday night.
50+ F. temperatures possible by Friday and Saturday over much of southern MN.
.25 - .60" rain possible Sunday (outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm).
Flooding in Chaska, Minnesota: a series of photos below:
Sunday Puddles. This is the GFS forecast map (surface pressure and precipitation rates) valid noon on Sunday, showing an area of low pressure over west central Minnesota, heaviest rain (and snow) over northern Minnesota. If this forecast verifies we may see .25 to .60" rain Sunday (even a slight chance of convection, a few scattered T-storms). If the forecast is valid - the rate of snowmelt will increase (significantly) over the weekend.
A Very Moist Fetch. The ECMWF forecast, valid Sunday morning, shows a long (moist) fetch of moisture at 850 mph, roughly 3,500 feet above the ground. The solution is fairly similar to the GFS run, which brings a strong area of low pressure into Minnesota, the best chance of rain from Saturday night into Monday morning, when a cold northwest wind on the backside of the storm may spark a changeover from rain to wet snow. Lovely.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota: