MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN...NW WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281811Z - 281945Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL...WITH WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN ND..WITH A STRONG WSWLY JET EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO SRN MN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE MARGINAL ACROSS MN /DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 45-55/ BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ML CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG DEVELOPING. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF MN NE INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION...WITH LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS OR SHORT LINE SEGMENTS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE RESULTING A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. ACROSS NWRN MN...SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...BUT PROXIMITY TO COLD UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Severe Storm Watch Until 10 PM (includes Twin Cities area)
Doppler at 2:20 pm. Reports of 2" diameter hail near Redwood Falls. Storms are expected to fire rapidly over central and northern Minnesota through the afternoon hours. Stay alert - know where you would go if threatening weather aproached.
Severe Storm Watch Until 10 PM. The watch includes St. Cloud, the Twin Cities and Mankato, as well as Duluth. It means "watch out" for possible severe storms over the next few hours: the greatest risk appears to be large hail and potentially damaging straight-line wind gusts. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
Ripe For A Few Severe Storms. According to SPC the greatest risk of hail, straight-line winds and even an isolated tornado will be over central and northern Minnesota (greater risk north metro than southern suburbs of the Twin Cities). More details: